Author Archive

Jose Altuve: Good Things Come in Small Packages

Jose Altuve is like Major League Baseball’s version of Earl Boykins; whenever you watch him standing at the plate you can’t help but think “wait, the Little League World Series started already?” He might be big league ball’s shortest active player, but his fantasy exploits per inch stack up well with any of the other second basemen you stand him up against. Altuve came in 11th on Zach Sanders’ end-of-season 2B rankings, meaning that in 2012 he was a viable starting 2B in all but the shallowest of fantasy formats, not bad for a guy who was 22nd off the board at his position and 230th overall (by way of ESPN, at least).

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Corey Hart: Undercover First Baseman

With the publishing of Zach Sanders’ 2012 first base rankings on Monday, most owners probably had a good idea where everyone was going to fit. Obviously Miguel Cabrera was going to be king of the hill and everyone knew they were going to have a scroll a while to find Eric Hosmer’s name. But quietly holding onto the seventh spot was a guy who didn’t even start the year in the first base discussion: Corey Hart.

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Ike Davis: A Tale of Two Seasons

You’d be hard-pressed to find many guys listed on more “sleeper” lists last spring than Ike Davis. The 25 year-old Mets first baseman showed signs of breaking out in 2011, putting up an impressive .302/.383/.543 slash with seven homers and 25 RBI in a season eventually cut short (149 PA) by a left ankle injury. After multiple setbacks late in the season, he proclaimed himself ready to go early in 2012, and with that, the fantasy hype train started rolling. A healthy Davis was locked in as a middle-of-the-order hitter and his 2011 projected full season rates (23 HR, 85 RBI) were set to get a nice boost with the fences at Citi Field being moved in a bit, too. Many owners who passed on elite first basemen like Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera were skipping past the Freddie Freeman‘s, Paul Konerko‘s, and Billy Butler’s of the world and hoping to snag Davis in the later rounds.

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Aroldis Chapman: Fantasy NL Bull Cy

As the RotoGraphs fantasy awards trickle out, there are many interesting debates. Was Jake Peavy or Chris Sale the better bargain in the American League? Just who was the best buy-low in the National League? However, a couple votes needed far less deliberation — one of those was the National League’s Bull Cy; the relief pitcher for your fantasy squad who cost you the least but brought you most. As such, let’s jump right to the staff voting.

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Bullpen Report: September 30, 2012

• Well, it looks like Tyler Clippard’s run as Nationals closer has hit the skids just before the end of the regular season. Yesterday, it was Drew Storen who was called upon in the ninth. Of course, Storen blew the save by serving up a couple hits and a sacrifice fly, but the key fact was that Clippard was deliberately used in his old eighth inning role. I covered Storen’s positive trends last week (velocity up to pre-injury levels, great K/BB ratio) so I won’t rehash here. Clippard has struggled significantly over the last month or so and while his 4.13 xFIP isn’t terrible, it isn’t elite either. Given Washington’s hesitance to move him from setup into the ninth inning earlier this season, it seems more than plausible that the new pecking order has Storen locked into the closer role, especially with the team about to embark on their first playoff run in D.C.

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Bullpen Report: September 29, 2012

• After splitting save chances with Jared Burton for a month or so, Glen Perkins has quietly taken over the ninth inning all to himself in the second half of the season. He finished off save number 16 on Friday, throwing a 1-2-3 inning as the Twins upset the Tigers. Perkins has been as steady as relievers come this year, not flashing elite numbers, but putting up monthly xFIPs between 3.02 (April) and 3.67 (July). While his K% has dropped from the high-20% area to the mid-20% realm (possible a result of a slight downtick in fastball velocity), his BB% has plunged from near 10% before the all-star break to a shockingly low 2.5% after. The move the Twins made to buy out a few years of Perkins post-arbitration free agency is looking especially shrewd and he seems to be a near-mortal lock to be the team’s closer come April 2013. He’s only owned in 36% of Yahoo! leagues so run and grab the stat geek if you need saves — keeper league owners would be wise to stash/hold him– a guy with a guaranteed closer job and a plummeting walk rate should sneak into the back end of the top 15 closers on draft boards next year.

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Bullpen Report: September 23, 2012

• Earlier this weekend, Mike Scioscia announced that he was going back to a closer-by-committee after Ernesto Frieri’s recent rough stretch. Of course, he turned around and rewarded Frieri by — giving him the next save opportunity. Frieri pitched a scoreless ninth on Saturday to preserve a 2-0 lead and emphasize that he’s still probably the favorite even in a committee situation. On Sunday, when faced with a three-run lead, the Angels split up the ninth between Garrett Richards, Scott Downs, and Frieri (nullifying the potential save for anyone). Frieri should be considered at the head of the bullpen, with Downs potentially an option in lefty-heavy innings. Of the other righties, Jordan Walden actually has the best xFIP over the last month (1.93) but doesn’t seem high on the ladder. Other more likely options like Richards (5.03 30-day xFIP), Kevin Jepsen (4.76) and LaTroy Hawkins (4.18) don’t seem like great bets for success. Desperate save chasers can add Downs to squads and hope for a few lefty-righty-lefty ninths, but it seems like a lot of effort with little reward to try and guess which righty might moonlight as the closer one night over the next week and a half.

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Bullpen Report: September 22, 2012

Kenley Jansen may have returned from the disabled list, but it’s clear the Dodgers are easing him back into the closer role rather than just throwing him to the National League. He pitched one-third of an inning Thursday to get his feet wet and, while fans thought Friday might be the day he sees the ninth inning again, he pitched the seventh in a tie game versus the Reds. Manager Don Mattingly saved Brandon League for the save opportunity which eventually cropped up in the tenth inning. Jansen is clearly the superior pitcher (and is one of the best relievers in baseball when healthy) but League has put up a solid 3.04 xFIP over the last month while going four-for-four in the save conversion department. There’s no telling when Jansen might get the ninth inning back but owners should be prepared to wait a bit longer than they first expected — meanwhile, League might be a guy to snag until that time comes (available in 50% of Yahoo! leagues). Maybe savvy owners can squeeze a few more saves out of him before he is moved back to a setup role.

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Bullpen Report: September 16, 2012

• The struggling Addison Reed was finally yanked from a save opportunity on Saturday after giving up a pair of walks and a single. Robin Ventura apparently had enough and called on Matt Thornton to get out of the bases loaded jam — Thornton complied by inducing a double play and then another ground out to preserve the win for the White Sox. Reed has now given up earned runs in seven of his last nine outings, although his biggest problem his the 0.538 BABIP over that span (7 innings since August 24th). His 30-day xFIP is a slightly more bearable 4.13 (which only barely trails his top right-handed setup man in Brett Myers (4.11)), although Thornton’s xFIP over the same period is 3.35. It’s unlikely we’ve seen a changing of the guard, but this serves notice that the White Sox are not messing around — they don’t have margin for error and the leash on any of their relievers is getting shorter as the end of September draws closer. Reed owners scraping for saves should acknowledge that (and maybe snag Thornton if they have an extra bullpen slot).

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Bullpen Report: September 15, 2012

• Two nights after Grant Balfour was passed over for a save situation, he was right back at it in locking down a one run game versus the also-contending Baltimore Orioles. Balfour’s season-long 4.01 xFIP isn’t fantastic, but a lot of damage was done in June/July. Since August 1st, he has a 2.63 xFIP with a K% (33.3%) which puts him within sniffing distance of baseball’s elite relievers. His fastball velocity has been climbing all season and he’s currently throwing the hardest he has since the 2008/2009 seasons. Barring multiple meltdowns, Oakland will ride him to find their playoff fate so make sure he’s active as you try to tick off the last few saves in your roto leagues.

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