You’ve probably seen guys like David Wiers, Chris Cwik, and Howard Bender discussing their mock draft teams. And I mean, that’s cool and all, but I just want to talk about my team. Well, sort of — I mainly just want to ramble on about this draft that absconded with six weeks of my life (not full-time, obviously, but the constant iPhone e-mail checking drove everyone around me nuts). For those of you just waking up after a bit of holiday season hibernation, we’re talking about a way-too-early Rotographs mock draft: 12 teams, ESPN rosters, 23 rounds. Eno Sarris covered week-by-week breakdowns (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-23) but Cwik has been kind enough to provide the whole thing in a public Google Doc here. So here’s what I was able to cobble together:

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After making my disdain for drafting relievers early well-known in last week’s breakdown of Round 1-15 relievers from RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock (all rounds linked here), it’s time to move on to the “best of the rest.” This is where I personally think relievers are ripe for selection — you’re late enough in the draft that you aren’t queasy about passing up top-10-round talent to snag a guy who is a few bad outings away from being “fantasy useless,” but you still have thirty big league teams to sort through in search of that mythical arbitrary construct known as “the save.”

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Many times I hear one of the popular fantasy mantras (“always start your studs!”) I can’t help but roll my eyes. I’m just not a fan of trying to wedge advice into a one-size-fits-all framework. However, there is one overly-used cliché I actually follow. Believe it’s validity deep in my brain and deeper in the heart. “Never pay for saves on draft day.”

Of course, for those guys that love them some elite closers, the easy retort to this is “but… but… Mariano Rivera!” They’re right, I can’t deny Mariano Rivera has provided excellent return on investment for his drafters over the last decade or so. But that specific example doesn’t mean the closer position isn’t horrendously volatile and subject to the whims of finicky managers around the league.

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Stop me if you’ve heard about “enigmas wrapped in riddles surrounded by mysteries” before. Well, that was essentially Clay Buchholz’s 2012. Many fantasy owners hoped to buy low on Buchholz going into the year; fondly remembering his 2010 season while hoping the back injury that shelved him for more than half of 2011 was a distant memory. In ESPN leagues, he went 53rd among starting pitches (193rd overall) meaning he fell into the 14th-16th rounds in standard 12-team leagues. What managers couldn’t imagine was drafting a pitcher who could do more harm to their roto categories than if they had just started an empty roster slot. But that’s exactly what Buchholz was in April and May, putting up an ugly 7.19 ERA and dragging his owners down into the abyss. However, eventually the calendar flipped to June, and “good Buchholz” emerged from some sort of baseball cocoon, beginning a run that saw his 7+ ERA metamorphose into a 3.45 over the final four months of the season. Throw these two versions of the Boston righty into a cauldron and you end up with a guy 73rd in Zach Sanders’ 2012 rankings (below replacement value), but one who went from being completely and utterly unrosterable for more than eight weeks to a hurler who stabilized many rotations during the longest days of the summer.

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The Cubs’ move to plant Jeff Samardzija in their 2012 Opening Day rotation certainly raised a few eyebrows. Here was a formerly highly-touted prospect who had struggled immensely from 2008-2010 as he bounced back and forth between starter and reliever roles. In 2011, he seemingly found his niche in the middle-to-late innings; compiling an impressive 2.97 ERA while operating solely out of the Chicago bullpen. So it comes as no surprise that more than a few Cubs fans (as well as outside observers) were a bit skeptical that moving Samardzija to the rotation after a solid spring was in the team’s best interest long-term. His name may have cropped up in a few deep sleeper articles here and there, but for most drafters, there was no hype to be found; the Notre Dame project didn’t even crack ESPN’s top 200 drafted starting pitchers (by ADP). But owners who did manage to scoop him up were treated to a pleasant surprise, as he cost next to nothing, but ended up finishing 43rd in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings; ahead of more ballyhooed names like Jeremy Hellickson, Ian Kennedy, and Matt Moore (among others).

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2012 was not kind to Cameron Maybin owners. After a seemingly breakthrough 2011 where he stole 40 bases, scored 82 runs, and coupled those with a 0.130 ISO, he came into this season perhaps not an elite option, but one that was almost universally drafted in fantasy leagues — a center-of-the-field positional player in his age 25 season who carried nearly guaranteed stolen base numbers with fair upside in most other standard 5×5 categories. On ESPN, Maybin came off the board 33rd among outfielders in fantasy leagues; 13th among his center field brethren (the latter number being especially important for leagues that don’t use generic outfield slots). However, after an up and down 2012, Maybin only slots in 71st in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings — at $0 value, he was essentially replacement level; someone who (ignoring brand) was likely shuttled between the waiver wire and spot starts in most leagues.

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When Austin Jackson, the Tigers’ centerpiece in the Curtis Granderson trade, came out of the gates flying in early 2010, baseball was abuzz about the young gun patrolling the outfield grasses at Comerica Park. However, many savvy fantasy owners who had scooped him up spun him quickly, seeing a near 0.500 BABIP (with little other substance otherwise) was driving his gaudy rookie-year numbers, and Jackson subsequently sunk back down into the realm of average, but not spectacular outfielders. He sat there in 2011, watching some of his 2010 rates sag even further; here was the traditional case of a guy with a lot of buzz, but not a lot of early career numbers to back it up. Fantasy owners were (rightfully) wary headed in 2012. ESPN’s average draft position tracker had Jackson 18th among centerfielder, 50th among all outfielders, and 216th overall; in other words, a guy who was either selected at the tail end in most drafts or even saw some time on the waiver wire early in the season. However, most know the next line in the story — Jackson blew away his preseason valuation while seeing nearly across-the-board improvements in 2012 and climbing all the way to 19th overall (among OF) in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings.

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Owners who hopped aboard the Mike Napoli bandwagon in 2011 (and stayed on it through injury) were handsomely rewarded with excellent value from a traditionally weak position in fantasy. 2012 drafts saw this value reflected in his pre-season rankings, and Texas’ offensive backstop slash first-baseman hybrid was coming off the board first among catchers and 44th overall (at least, in ESPN drafts). And owners who paid the high price for Napoli’s Arlington talent were correspondingly not shocked to see him slip all the way to 13th in Zach Sanders’ End of Season Catcher Rankings – most of them probably grumbling about burning a fourth-rounder or double-digit auction dollars on a guy who saw practically everything drop across the board from 2011 to 2012. Runs down from 72 to 53, runs batted in dropping similarly to 56 from 75, average crashing from 0.320 to 0.227 and even Napoli’s taters tailing off from 30 to 24 in only 15 less plate appearances. An all-around down year.

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Every spring fantasy columns tend to say the same old thing about Derek Jeter. “He’s old. He’s getting older. He can’t keep doing this forever. Let someone else pay the pinstripe tax.” Maybe owners have been taking this more to heart recently, as the days of that one Yankee fan in your league snagging Jeter in round two appear to be rapidly disappearing into the rear-view mirror. This year, using ESPN’s average draft tracker, Jeter actually fell all the way to tenth among shortstops, going around 119th overall — which is right where the Rotographs end of season 2011 FVAR rankings stuck him. But owners who stuck with him this year (be it out of sentimentality or the fact that they suddenly realized they needed a shortstop in round 10) were paid handsomely, as Zach Sanders’ aforementioned FVAR rankings show he not only didn’t fall further but actually climbed four spots (from 2011) to sixth when the dust settled on the 2012 campaign.

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2012 was supposed to be a big year for Pablo Sandoval in fantasy circles. Entering his age 25 season and coming off a 23 homer campaign in only 460 plate appearances the year before, a healthy Sandoval should have been a reasonable shot to touch 30-35 round-trippers with an above-average batting average if he could stay on the field. In fantasy circles, he was being treated like one of baseball’s near-elite. According to ESPN’s average position draft tracker, he was going off the board 38th overall (5th among third basemen). So in March, owners definitely didn’t envision seeing Sandoval slip to 26th in Zach Sanders’ End of Season Rankings for guys at the hot corner.

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