Hard to believe we’re already into August…

• Well now look who is getting saves in Seattle. A few nights after Tom Wilhelmsen imploded in a non-save situation against the Boston Red Sox, Danny Farquhar earned save number two as (apparently) the Mariners’ new closer du jour. Farquhar has actually been quite impressive this year once you look past the abysmal 5.09 ERA; a “unlucky” .359 BABIP and 53% LOB% are what is keeping that number so far away from his sparkling 2.13 xFIP.

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Always, always, always know your scoring system. I know the other guys who write in this space have done a fantastic job breaking down some of Draftstreet’s unique scoring rubric (and where you want to chase), but this point can never can be repeated enough.

Example? I have a good friend who just started playing Draftstreet a few weeks ago. Certainly not new to the fantasy baseball scene, but just getting his feet wet in daily games. Friday night we had a GChat conversation that went something like this (cleaned up for a family-friendly audience!).

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• Somehow, some way, Kevin Gregg is still with the Cubs. Maybe other teams realized he’s not good? Heck, saying Gregg hasn’t been good lately is a bit of an understatement. He’s posted a 5.79 ERA over the last month (13 appearances) but his 6.67 xFIP is even uglier. As 2013 has marched along his strikeout rate has tailed and his walk rate has climbed. While some speculate Gregg could be moved in August, it’s still somewhat surprising (to me at least) the Cubs didn’t get something (anything?) for him. Even with his recent regressions, his cool 3.05 ERA should have gotten some needy team to toss a C-level prospect back.

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Yes, today’s officially the last day “hug watch(TM)!” Well, “hug watch” or “I’m tipping my clubhouse guys lots of money in non-descript envelopes” watch.

Whatever the case may be, it goes without saying  you’ll want to keep an eye on the trade deadline today. With three afternoon games, maybe you’ll want to get into one of the early Draftstreet pools, so you’re probably going to want to steer clear of guys like Alex Rios, Michael Young, Hunter Pence, and Michael Morse. Keep an eye on all moves for you daily lineup leagues, too. No use starting a zero while someone is packing their bags and taking a cross-country flight.

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• For those clinging to hope that John Axford will get the ninth inning role back for the Brew Crew this year… well… let’s say today didn’t go so hot for you. Coming in with a one-run lead in the eighth inning (Ron Roenicke would have gone to Jim Henderson in the ninth), Axford coughed up three hits and two runs, taking the “BS” and “L” as lovely parting gifts. Axford has curbed the walks recently (that’s good!) but has seen his already-below-career-average whiff rate continue to tumble (that’s bad!). His fastball velocity, while up a tick from his early season woes, remains down about one mph, although his SwStr% is right in line with his career norms. At this point, however, it’s fruitless to dissect his peripherals. Even though Axford had a great stretch until yesterday (0.32 ERA over 32 games), he still struggled gaining his manager’s confidence, and another outing like today may have “The Ax Man” right back in the doghouse.

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• Jason Grilli was officially placed on the 15-day disabled list. The good news? Sounds like Grilli didn’t hear the dreaded “pop” signaling a serious acute injury. GM Neil Huntington has also apparently insinuated that the injury might not be as bad as first feared (season-ending). However, Grilli was clearly suffering from some degree of discomfort at least four pitches before he was eventually yanked — I question what exactly the trainers were looking at. Either way, keep Grilli rostered.

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One thing I look at when mining for Draftstreet bargains is the “last 30 days” filter on Fangraphs leaderboards. While there has been much work done on the predictiveness (or lack thereof) of “streaks” (for one example, see The Book), you aren’t necessarily falling prey to the Gambler’s Fallacy when looking for guys who have good underlying peripherals. Four weeks is not a long time, but for many players, it may be enough to recognize fundamental shifts in skill (batting eye, contact rate, etc.). More importantly, since  valuation of players inherently is skewed towards counting stats (in Draftstreet’s case, fantasy points per game), you can get a good sense of whether a “hot” or “cold” player’s value has been artificially inflated/suppressed and exploit arbitrages that way.

Some examples of the stats I look at?

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• Andrew Bailey’s shoulder put a quick end to any of the recent speculation that he may have been a candidate to move back to the ninth inning in the next few weeks. Bailey suffered labrum and shoulder capsule damage (supposedly acutely during his last outing) and will undergo surgery this Wednesday. Shoulder surgery is a big deal, and Bailey will be sidelined for the remainder of 2013 and at least the early part of 2014. He’s likely to be non-tendered by the Red Sox this offseason and outside of extraordinarily deep dynasty leagues, has virtually no fantasy value.

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With baseball taking their annual mid-summer break, I thought maybe it was worth trying to read the tea leaves with some bullpens that might see some potential shakeups as we head towards the MLB and many fantasy league trade deadlines. Some guys might be sell-highs, some might be waiver wire stashes, but the key here is to target guys of interest before the real chatter starts to pick up around baseball in the next week or so.

Milwaukee Brewers: Perhaps one of the messiest closing situations of the first half. Francisco Rodriguez feels like he’s been around forever, but (somehow) he is only 31 (that’s only one year older than Brandon League for those keeping score at home). He’s enjoying a renaissance of sorts, too. His 1.19 ERA is certainly not sustainable (the man has a 99.1% LOB%!), his K% is up about 5% this year and his BB% has even dropped a tick from 10.2% to 9%. His velocity hasn’t moved much, and his SwStr%, while a bit up on 2012, is still well below his career average, so some K% regression might be coming. That said, no one can deny he hasn’t done an admirable job out of the Brewers pen.

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Final Bullpen Report before most players embark on a mini-vacation. I like Mariano Rivera if you are in some sort of high-stakes “who gets the save in the all-star game” pool. Or is that just me?

• There’s been some chatter over the last week or so that Jonathan Papelbon might be one of a host of closers who could be had in a trade this month. Unfortunately for Ruben Amaro, he certainly didn’t help his value today, blowing save number five and robbing Cole Hamels owners of a ‘W’ (luckily for the Phanatic, the Phils still won in extras).

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