If you had a fantasy playoff league, Shane Victorino helped you win RBI and any mythical HBP category, but he sure killed you everywhere else. While his (way) up and (way) down playoff run is likely what everyone will remember from 2013, the rest of it was certainly interesting from a fantasy standpoint.

Victorino’s first season in Boston was supposed to represent a bounceback from a 2012. His 93 wRC+ that year (his last year in Philly that also included a stopover in Los Angeles) dropped below 100 for the first time since 2007. Some of that was BABIP but it didn’t help that the power dropped (by a lot) and the BB% and K% rates trended the opposite direction. Cue suppressed value headed into 2013 drafts.

Signed by Boston to a somewhat controversial 3/$39 million contract in the offseason, Shanf took his antics to right field, a position he hadn’t permanently manned since 2007. His .308 wOBA during the first month of the season caused a degree of consternation in Beantown (and more fuel for the offseason skeptics), although he seemed to get better as the weather warmed up (.327 in May, .341 in June).

Most people (myself included) love to wonder “what would happen if (insert terrible switch hitter here) just gave up and started hitting from their better side, even against same-handed pitching?” Read the rest of this entry »

So let’s dissect this bounceback. Stephen Drew put up a 109 wRC+, nearly 30 points higher than his 2012 mark. We can’t point to improved strikeout or walk rates; in fact, both of those trended slightly worse in 2013 (although the walk rate is well up over his career average).

Drew’s BABIP was the most significant contributor to the climb in batting average, jumping from .275 last season to .320 this. There’s no obvious marker in his batted ball profile that could have contributed to this; his line drives were down a smidge but the rest of his batted ball profile has been remarkably consistent across the board. Drew’s well-above average LD% contributes to high xBABIPs, with his last two years coming in at .341 and .317. Even not considered the fleetest of foot, there seems reason to believe his average should more closely resemble 2013 than 2012, at least in the near future.

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Behind only Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the banner crop of “under-22” phenoms rocketing into the baseball the last few years, Manny Machado still hadn’t fully convinced redraft owners heading into 2013. The SS-turned-3B was not drafted by a starter at the hot corner in standard leagues, coming off the board 189th (at least, in ESPN leagues), making him a mid-teens third baseman in the mid-teens rounds (for those in auction leagues, a $2-4 player). Owners willing to take a chance were rewarded with surplus value, as Machado finished 10th in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season FVAR rankings, posting $11 of sweet, sweet value. But is it rosy skies ahead in 2014 and beyond for the future face of the Orioles franchise?

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One of my favorite sleepers before the season, Jedd Gyorko, the Padres third base prospect with the ridiculous .413 wOBA in AAA, rocketed up draft boards when it became clear that he was competing for a spot on the Opening Day roster. While Chase Headley was actually dinged up at the onset of the season, it wasn’t the prospect of Gyorko playing at the hot corner that got fantasy owners worked up, but rather, the notion that San Diego was considering playing one of their top prospects (not known as the most mobile or fleet of foot) at second base. Yes, they were that desperate to get some offense in the middle infield outside of Everth Cabrera’s empty batting average and (admittedly copious) stolen bases. But hey, who am I to judge when defensive WAR isn’t one of my roto cats?

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OK, I’ll admit, the vast majority of people who owned this player didn’t start him at first base. Yet here we are, talking about Mike Napoli as fantasy’s 16th best first baseman according to Zach Sanders’ FVAR rankings. 16th best is still startable. Maybe as a 1B in deeper leagues, or maybe as a corner infielder in your regular 10 or 12-teamer. Regardless, while that’s not where people played him this year, first base is where we have to start thinking Napoli going forward. Playing with avascular necrosis in both hips (also known as “the injury that ruined Bo Jackson“), Napoli doesn’t figure to squat behind the plate anymore. But it’s not all bad — every cloud has silver linings.

One advantage to no longer being a full-time (or even part-time) catcher? The sheer volume of playing time. Just ask Victor Martinez. By plate appearances, 2013 was Napoli’s top year so far. He stepped up to the dish an impressive 578 times; 68 more than his previous career high set with the Angels in 2010. Of course, the driving factor was that Boston’s bearded righty didn’t catch a game for the first time since he broke into the big leagues. But less wear on the tires means more chances for Napoli to help fantasy owners in any of the counting stat categories.

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Most of you who read anything I write about bullpens in this space know I’m not a big fan of drafting closers. And that’s probably an understatement. Few sure things exist, and the ones that do usually go for such a premium that it is downright painful to buy one early, all the while passing on other cream talent. As such, I’m a proponent of only drafting closers late and absolutely scouring the wire as the season progresses to find enough pieces to win me the SV category. That’s why fantasy MVRP (most valuable relief pitcher) means so much to me. He’s the definition of everything I love; excellent performance at tremendously low cost! Remember, our definition of “most valuable” this week is essentially “most return on investment.” So while Craig Kimbrel still rode atop season rankings, he’s essentially ineligible thanks to the fourth-rounder you burned on him. And while there are multiple deserving MVRP candidates in the Senior Circuit, this is really only one reliever who stands out on the American League side. Boston’s Koji Uehara.

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This is my first venture into the Rotographs “Bold Predictions” series and mainly I’m just hoping a big league general manager notices my predictive prowess and I rule baseball by August 2015. I will admit, I am a bit concerned I asked my Magic 8-Ball how spot on these prophecies were and I just got an f-bomb back in return. Oh well. Go big or go home.

So Billy Beane, can I have Jonah Hill’s job yet?

Clay Buchholz will be a top-25 mixed league starter.

Thank you, ERA and WHIP. By games played, Buchholz was the one of the American League’s top starters this year, however, another season marred by injury caused him to only toss 108.1 innings this season. However, those inning were insanely valuable, with Buchholz posting 12 wins (in 16 starts), a 1.74 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP. With a nice spike in his K/9, even with the abbreviated season, Buchholz finished 20th on ESPN’s Player Rater. Win.

1 for 1.

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• Hope you stashed Trevor Rosenthal (for a few days, at least). The flamethrowing righty picked up his third save in as many days on Wednesday, striking out a pair against the Nationals. You don’t need me to tell you how fantastic Rosenthal has pitched this year. His 2.41 xFIP puts him seventh amongst big league relievers and that’s right where he slots in WAR-wise as well.

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Last week of the season? It’s time to chase those final categories. With only five full days left in 2013, your team pretty much is what it is. It’s time to begin a targeted attack for those last few roto points. And by a “targeted attack,” I may mean “mass waiver wire purge.” We have 3% of the season left. It may emotionally hurt to kick top-40 players to the curb (especially if your team name is a pun on one of their names that you think is pretty freakin’ clever), but 5 not-so-shiny pennies in a bag of 162 doesn’t dull the other 157.

In less bad-currency-analogy terms, I offer some examples. I’m leading in ERA and WHIP (by a considerable margin) but am trying to run down our first-place guy in strikeouts. Suddenly, whether or not a pitcher has a good matchup or great peripherals doesn’t matter to me; whether or not he can punch out more than a couple guys does. Jordan Zimmermann? Adios. David Hale? Yeah, I can give you a shot. In that same league, I’m in a seven-person cluster, all within 8 home runs. While I’m not winning stolen bases, I’m eight up and 15 behind. Not a lot of room for movement there. Goodbye, Jacoby Ellsbury (actually, he’s been gone for a while now), Eric Young, and Billy Hamilton. Hello, Josh Rutledge, Mitch Moreland, and Darin Ruf. Could you guys just run into a couple over the next few days? That’d be great.

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• The Rangers are certainly not playing their best baseball, and Joe Nathan didn’t help tonight. Texas’ closer was tagged with a “BS” in the box score after giving up a walk, a stolen base, and a single. Nathan has been steadily outperforming his peripherals all year, posting a mid-1.00’s ERA even with an xFIP north of 3.00. While that’s not a major concern, the fact that his BB% has spiked to 13.7% after the all-star break (and a walk began his undoing tonight) is somewhat concerning. His velocity has trended up later in the season, although he remains below his 2012 mark. The control bears watching (given some of Jeff Zimmerman’s work which implies loss of command is a potential sign of injury) and the fact that Nathan will be entering his age 39 season next year makes him somewhat of an low-upside keeper stash. That said, ride him for the next 10 days.

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