I’d like to think I did pretty well with my rookie set of “Bold Predictions” last year. Took a lot of heat for saying R.A. Dickey would struggle? Check. “Jed Lowrie can’t survive a full season, are you mad!?” Check. “Clay Buchholz will get injured, he can’t be a top-25 starting pitcher!” Um. Check?

Well, now it’s time for the inevitable sophomore slump. As always, I tried to be a bit bolder than my compadres here at Rotographs (because A) this is fun, and B) I read their comment sections) but that may be setting me up for some spectacular busts, too. Remember when I said Pedro Alvarez wouldn’t even crack 20 homers last year? That was adorable.

Sonny Gray outpitches Jose Fernandez.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things I’ve really had to spend time on as I’ve transitioned to much deeper, dynasty-style leagues over the past few years is relief pitching. In a standard league, I can get away with taking one or two weaker closers towards the back end of drafts, fill out RP slots with some high upside guys, and churn the wire for the next flavor of the week. However, if you’re playing in a 16-team dynasty league with 40-man rosters, you can’t quite get away with that strategy. Danny Farquhar is the new closer? Taken. Looks like Jim Henderson has taken John Axford’s job? He’s been gone for weeks. Koji Uehara is the new ninth inning guy? Please, he was drafted months ago.

So while I still don’t pay heavily for guys with the closer(TM) tag, I have become much more interested in trying to snag high-upside, late draft relievers. If possible, I also try and grab guys on their way up, since we know fastball velocity is strongly tied to reliever strikeouts and said fastball velocity peaks early. Very early. There are a few names that stand out in 2014 who may be interesting options. All three have massively suppressed stocks after iffy seasons last year as well as the added benefit of being barely old enough to legally purchase a case of Coors Light. Yes, they may not be as high on the projection-based rankings as a guy like, say, Steve Delabar, but their lottery ticket upside is more intriguing. Not to mention having more upside for 2014 is great, but beyond is even better, too.

Read the rest of this entry »

I think we’re the last ones to finish up. We’re so slow, Eno apparently already dropped the full spreadsheet. But, really, don’t you just want a thread where you can bag on how the Rockies claim that LaTroy Hawkins may open the season ahead of Rex Brothers on the depth chart?

Reliever rankings come courtesy of the guys (Alan, Ben, and Colin) who’ll once again be on Bullpen Report duty. You aren’t going to quibble with the top six or so (although you might want to shuffle up the order). Where things get really interesting is wading into the quagmire of guys past RP20 or so. As always, relievers look to be a volatile breed. Do you look for guys with weaker peripherals but have the tentative “closer” tag or do you draft for peripherals and assume your guy will float to the top as the season grinds along? And who knows who Houston is going to tab as their next closer? Are you going to be the one rolling the dice on Josh Fields, Chad Qualls, or (insert reliever X here)? (Aside: it’s not me.)

Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox still control the majority of the key bullpen cogs from their World Championship run, so the team that posted the fifth best SIERA in the American League should be in the neighborhood of repeating that mark in 2014. With the return of a couple injured arms (note: mercifully not Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey) and the addition of a few pitchers fitting the mold of Boston’s already low-walk relief corps, there is also upside for the defending champs to own one of the better (and more fantasy relevant) bullpens in baseball.

The closer
Koji Uehara

Read the rest of this entry »

Fresh off a season that saw the Braves relievers lead all of baseball, they return the vast majority of their arms. While their team xFIP was nearly a run higher than their ERA, indicating some regression is likely, they are also anchored by one of baseball’s premier closers. Couple that with the fact that the majority of their arms are under 30 and they work in a pitcher-friendly park, and there’s little reason to doubt the team should be a solid source of fantasy value again in 2014.

The closer
Craig Kimbrel

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a little… weird… writing about the Brewers closing situation without having to discuss whether or not the 17 homers John Axford gave up the night before are “any indication he’ll lose the job in the near future.” Maybe more nice than weird. While the Brewers return a fair number of their 2013 relief corps, a few fresh faces enter the mix. While far from the deepest bullpen in the league, the back end has a few guys who may perk the ears of fantasy owners.

Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s one thing you want to say about Seattle’s bullpen it’s… well, it’s pretty cheap. Like getting paid “what fell out of Robinson Cano’s coin purse” cheap. But while it’s cheap, it’s filled with guys who throw hard. Guys who throw hard tend to get whiffs. Guys who get whiffs have a chance to be valuable. And if you’re concerned with middle relievers in your fantasy leagues, guys who get whiffs are exactly who you should be targeting as upside plays.

The closer
Danny Farquhar

Farquhar burst onto the scene in 2013, notching 16 saves in the stead of a certain former bartender-turned-closer who shall remain nameless (but appears below). Read the rest of this entry »

Talk about a bullpen with a lot of money tied up in it. While many teams supplement high-paid closers or setup men with some cheaper, pre-arb talent, the Dodgers eschew the “don’t spend too much on relievers” strategy (obviously not reading my fantasy draft strategy columns) and boast a $30+ million bullpen. To put that in context, it’s more than the entire Houston Astros squad will make in 2014. Holy macaroni. Guess Magic and Co.’s bottomless spending isn’t limited to buying half of Bobby Valentine’s Red Sox roster.

The closer
Kenley Jansen

Read the rest of this entry »

Clay Buchholz looks good. Clay Buchholz looks real good. Fans begin to wonder, “is this the Clay Buchholz we heard so much about in 2007?” Word is leaked that he is sore. No big deal, he’ll just skip a side session. Or a start. A few starts. OK, he’s on the disabled list. And now he’s dealing with some freak injury that no one can peg down. Welp, he’s missed half the season.

Sound familiar? If you are a Buchholz owner in a keeper or dynasty league, 2013 was the fourth year in a row where Buchholz hit the disabled list. The past three years, his injuries have been A) stress fracture to the L2 vertebra, B) esophagitis, and C) some sort of mysterious trapezius/neck/shoulder strain. When he was healthy, he was one of the best pitches in baseball, posting the lowest ERA among pitches with at least 100 innings and coming in 20th overall in our end-of-season cumulative FVAR rankings, even though he only tossed 108.1 frames.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, that kind of came out of left field. I guess, more aptly, center field? Word broke last night the guy ranked 8th in Zach Sanders‘ end-of-season outfielder rankings is headed south on I-95. That’s right, Jacoby Ellsbury is following Johnny Damon’s footsteps and leaving the Red Sox for the Bronx immediately after winning a World Series.

To figure out what this means for 2014, we need to look back a bit at 2013. There are three areas Ellsbury derived positive value from this year: runs, batting average, and, of course, stolen bases. He did provide net positive value in RBIs and home runs (accounting for positional scarcity), but they were far and away his two least important categories. Runs and RBIs are a function of opportunity, and we know what your lineup does around you (and where you are within your lineup) is the main driver. We won’t focus on those. However, we can break down the other three aspects of Ellsbury’s fantasy game and write a 2013/2014 narrative.

Read the rest of this entry »