The Chicago Cubs are pinning their future on the improvement of Starlin Castro. Three years into his career, Castro has been a slightly above-average player. His 103 wRC+ confirms that notion, and his .330 career wOBA is hardly elite. But there is reason for optimism. Castro is just 23-years-old, and has been a regular in the majors since his age-20 season. While his offensive performance hasn’t been great thus far, there’s reason to believe he can turn into a great hitter.

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Time to put it all on the line. As you’ve likely noticed, it’s bold predictions week at RotoGraphs. There’s been a clamoring in the comment section for more “boldness” in our predictions, and I’m ready to deliver. But, unlike some of my colleagues, I’m not sure I really expect any of these to come true. If anything, this list is a rundown of my biggest sleepers heading into the season. My main goal here is that once the season is over, we’ll both be happy that we took shots on the players I’ve singled out. Here goes nothing.

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“Don’t trust the spring training numbers.” It’s a common phrase uttered by wise fantasy analysts. For many reasons, spring training stats are an unreliable gauge of a player’s talents. Despite the constant reminders that spring numbers don’t matter, countless articles will be written chronicling “player X” and his excellent spring. Rick Porcello has emerged as one of the more popular spring breakout candidates this year. Ninety-five percent of the time, it would be wise to laugh off these articles as small sample size fodder. But in the case of Porcello, there may actually be reason to buy into the hype.

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The Boston Red Sox outfield went through some big changes during the offseason. Both corner spots will be filled by new arrivals. Both Jonny Gomes and Shane Victorino have been effective throughout their careers, but there are reasons for concern moving forward. Even with those worries, Jacoby Ellsbury might be the riskiest player in Boston’s outfield. The center fielder was one of the best hitters in baseball in 2011, but will need to prove he’s capable of those numbers again. On top of that, he’s received the dreaded “injury prone” tag. There’s value here, but only if you can get past some red flags.

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The Tampa Bay Rays last used a free-agent starter in 2002. Since then, the team has received incredible contributions strictly relying on homegrown talent. The streak may continue in 2013, as all five current starters came up through the Rays’ system. At the top, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore have already proven themselves as strong fantasy contributors. There’s some uncertainty at the back-end, but given the Rays’ penchant for turning out quality contributors, every player should be on fantasy owners’ radar.

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The “Big Three” in the rotation will enter what could be their final season together for the Philadelphia Phillies. Both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have signed long-term deals, but Roy Halladay enters 2013 in the final year of his contract. The club holds a $20 million option on Halladay in 2014, but for the first time in his career, he’s not a sure thing to earn that payday. Halladay struggled through injuries and decreased fastball velocity en route to his worst season since 2000. For the first time in his career, Halladay is a major question mark. A resurgent year would push the Phillies to sleeper status, but if Halladay is in his decline phase, the club’s rotation looks drops off significantly after two starters.

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Nearly every member of the Washington Nationals’ infield produced at least 4 WAR last season. Well, aside from catcher, where Wilson Ramos missed most of the year with a knee injury. Ramos is healthy now, and the rest of the strong infield from last season is back. Both Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche emerged as breakout fantasy options last season, while Ryan Zimmerman regained his form in the second half and Danny Espinosa nearly went 20-20. With the infield only getting stronger now that Ramos is back, every National will remain a valuable asset in most leagues.

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The Washington Nationals received a much larger contribution from uber-prospect Bryce Harper than expected last season. That was highly beneficial, not only because Harper’s performance was exceptional, but also because both Jayson Werth and Michael Morse missed significant chunks of the year with injuries. As a result, Harper has seen his draft stock rise dramatically, while Werth is being selected as mostly an afterthought. Add Denard Span to an already strong lineup, and there’s a good chance all three Nationals outfielders will have value in most fantasy leagues.

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Paul Konerko has defied the odds. At an age where most players a clearly past their prime, Konerko is posting some of his best offensive seasons. Even with the late-career resurgence, Konerko continues to be a risk because of his age. That’s a fair criticism, as 37-year-olds are rarely still exhibiting numbers anywhere close to their prime. Given what he’s been able to do over the past couple of seasons, there’s reason to believe Konerko will be just fine this year.

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Signing Jeff Keppinger to play third base was the Chicago White Sox’s biggest move of the offseason. That tells you two things. It shows that the team will sport a similar lineup to last season, and it also tells you just how uneventful the past few months have been for the club. The only other change to infield personnel comes at catcher, where Tyler Flowers will finally get a chance to show what he can do in a full-time role. While it’s hard to see any breakout candidates in the White Sox’s infield, they do offer some reliable veteran options.

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