Francisco Liriano has been a tantalizing player over his career. Occasionally, he can look like one of the best pitchers in baseball. But most of the time, his performance fails to live up to his elite stuff. There’s been far more of the former version this year. Through 36 innings, Liriano has a 1.62 FIP. Liriano hasn’t thrown enough innings to be considered a “qualified” pitcher, but his strong FIP would rank first among starters. By now, we’ve seen enough about Liriano to know that, based on his career, this breakout is not guaranteed to continue. But Liriano has adopted an altered approach this season that may keep him from his usual roller coaster performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here at RotoGraphs, we receive a lot of would you trade/drop questions from readers. In response, we figure an article focusing on which players we are buying or selling might be helpful for the readership. So, let’s give this a shot. Let us know what you think in the comments.

Fantasy owners should have a decent grasp on their team by May. At this point in the year, sleepers have had a month to show they were worth a draft pick, and older players have shown signs of decline. While not perfect, both BABIP and FIP/xFIP can give you an idea of whether certain performances are sustainable going forward. On top of evaluating their own teams, fantasy owners can target buy-low players from other teams, making a move that will greatly impact the outcome of their leagues. Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada may have gotten off to different starts, but neither player should be valued based strictly on their performances this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Signing with the Tampa Bay Rays can immediately boost a player’s stock. Because the Rays have had success with free-agent additions in recent years, and are considered one of the game’s smarter franchises, fantasy owners tend to take notice when they bring a player to town. The track record of success does justify the excitement. In recent seasons, the Rays have turned around Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Kotchman, Fernando Rodney, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist, to name a few. Guys who had little to no fantasy value in the past have been key contributors on fantasy rosters with the Rays. This offseason was no different. Roberto Hernandez received some Rays’ buzz immediately after he signed, and has shown some signs of life recently. While Kelly Johnson rightfully avoided that excitement, he may also deserve a look in fantasy leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Cashner has always been a tantalizing pitcher. Armed with impressive stuff, he’s already shown flashes of brilliance in the rotation. But due to injuries, we haven’t been able to see Cashner dominate over a long period of time. With Cashner getting his fifth start of the season Tuesday, he’s already matched his previous career high. The results have been mixed. Cashner’s getting by with a strong 2.84 ERA, but his 4.04 FIP and 4.34 xFIP indicate struggles are ahead. A major part of that has been Cashner’s inability to get strikeouts. Cashner struck out 28.8% of hitters as a starter last year, but that’s down to 17.1% in 2013. The biggest culprit appears to be the disappearance of his hard slider.

Read the rest of this entry »

Derek Holland is starting to figure things out. After four up-and-down seasons, the 26-year-old lefty is pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Holland has always shown the ability to surprise, but what he’s done this year is even more unexpected. Through 49.2 innings, Holland’s 2.40 FIP ranks ninth among qualified starters. Even when you adjust for his home run rate, Holland’s 3.28 xFIP says his performance is legit. Holland is relying on the same five pitches he’s used his entire career, but he’s utilizing the slider more often. The result of that change has been driving Holland’s success this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Picking up injured players can be a risky proposition in fantasy. But depending on your league, taking a shot on an injured guy may be the only way to grab upside without having to pay a significant price. While picking up prospects is sometimes the more enticing strategy, there’s no way of knowing when that player will get their opportunity. Narrowing your search to injured veterans is risky, but at least you’re picking up players who are close to getting guaranteed playing time. Both Francisco Liriano and Matt Garza are close to making their 2013 debuts, and should be targeted by owners who need pitching, and don’t mind taking a few risks.

Read the rest of this entry »

Patrick Corbin was supposed to be a back-end starter. On a team that featured Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs in the minors, Corbin was thought to be a temporary solution in the rotation. Someone who wouldn’t embarrass himself until better prospects were ready. But a month into the season, he’s been the Arizona Diamondbacks best starter. Corbin’s 2.97 FIP ranks him 10 among National League starters. He’s already made a case to stick in the team’s rotation once the youngsters are ready. While some regression seems inevitable, Corbin is well on his way to a breakout season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Slowey was an afterthought this offseason. After signing a minor-league deal with the Miami Marlins, all but the most dedicated Marlins’ blogs neglected to write up the signing. In fairness, Slowey hadn’t pitched much in each of the last two seasons. A stress fracture in his rib cage ended his 2012 season after just eight minor-league starts, and he spent a fair part of 2011 in the minors. There was a legitimate question over whether Slowey would ever reach the majors again, let alone be an effective pitcher. But seven starts into 2013, Slowey has re-established himself as a bonafide major-leaguer. Though some regression is in store, Slowey’s landed in the perfect situation for a pitcher with his skill-set.

Read the rest of this entry »

The beginning of May is the perfect time for smart fantasy owners to start playing the waiver wire. After a month, other owners are probably sick of their slow starters, and have already dropped a player or two who has struggled due to small sample luck. In recent seasons, both Michael Morse and Paul Goldschmidt failed to hit in April, and went on to have fantasy breakouts by the time September rolled around. Owners get impatient and either give up on players, or are forced to cut bait too early when injuries strike. Matt Joyce and Brandon McCarthy are two players who may begin to turn things around in May.

Read the rest of this entry »

Boy, how things can change after just one month. Due to the promotion of Tony Cingrani, emergence of Matt Harvey and struggles of Matt Cain, the National League starting pitching landscape has been altered quite a bit. Since this is actually my first time doing rankings at the site, I’m going to put my own spin on them. Inside of normal tiers, we’ll rank them according to best Radiohead albums. I figure opening myself up to criticism from two different sides should be…fun. I’m also going to use the album titles to link to a song from that album, because, why not? But, first, let’s get to the rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »