The other day I found myself wondering what the downside risk of any starting pitcher was. If I could be relatively assured that a starter would throw a couple innings and get a couple of strikeouts, was it worth grabbing someone at a wild discount?

The player I was considering was Donovan Hand, on Thursday. He was about $5k cheaper than any other starter on a day without many options on the slate. I passed, and that turned out to be a good thing, as Hand allowed 11 baserunners and four earned over five innings. Even then, though, he managed 0.8 points on the day.

So, if Hand comes cheap and manages positive points in a terrible outing, does that make really cheap starters a better use of resources than, say, a cheap hitter who could rack up whiffs and post a negative?
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Yesterday we discussed the impact multi-homer games can have on a fantasy team. And then Leony Martin and Elvis Andrus went on to tear the house down, stealing three bases a piece off of Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels.

Multi-steal games are just as common as multi-homer games, which is a little odd considering there have been half as many steals as homers this year. However, steals are spread over a smaller pool than are home runs. There’s also the presence of guys like Hanson who change the stolen base environment far more dramatically than any pitcher could the home run environment. Basically, home runs are distributed more evenly over all games than steals are.

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Your chances of successfully predicting a multi-homer game are pretty slim. Your process can be spot on a hundred times and you may never stumble into one. Alternatively, you could be playing a match-up for steals or ratios and happen to end up with two taters on your plate.

Last night, Jacoby Ellsbury went deep twice against the Houston Astros, providing great value for daily league players in a 15-10 slugfest. Ellsbury’s game marked the 169th time this year a player has had a multi-home run game and the eighth time already in August. Not surprisingly, teams who received multiple homers from the same player have gone 130-39 in those games this year.

Daily fantasy players have made out just as well.
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A lot of ink has been spilled on Seattle Mariners’ infielder Kyle Seager this season. The multi-position slugger is looking to repeat on his 20-home run rookie season and is eligible at second and third, depending on your provider’s position rules. Not only does Seager have pop, he also tried to steal my girlfriend in a dream I had the other night (your heroic scribe was victorious…or just woke up in time).

But it’s Seager’s infield-mate who we’ll shed some light on in the shortstop space today even though he’s not really a shortstop. See, it’s because of The Great Gazoo that Seager is no longer taking aim at multi-position eligibility. For the Mariners, Nick Franklin’s got the keystone on lock for the foreseeable future.

Franklin, a switch hitter with an enormous helmet, saw his first major league action on May 27 after the Mariners pulled the plug on Dustin Ackley for what felt like the hundredth time. In the 57 games since, Franklin has been a house afire, hitting 10 home runs and chipping in five steals for his owners while piling up the RBI.

The power has given some pause, though, perhaps because Franklin is just 170lbs (he’s a little shorter and as lanky as Alexei Ramirez, for example). But the power isn’t exactly new for Franklin – he hit 50 home runs in the minors in just 438 games, or roughly one every 40 plate appearances. That rate has been a bit more extreme this season (one every 24 plate appearances) and might slow down, but the power in Franklin’s bat is a skill that’s been on display since 2010. He also hits a fair amount of fly balls (40%) and, if you trust stringer data in a 60-game sample, he makes really strong contact (25% line-drive rate).

The bigger concern might be that Franklin is now the owner of a fairly high strikeout rate (25.2%), topping anything he put up in the minors. His walk rate is decent enough (8.7%) to keep the OBP from being a sinkhole right now but his profile would look exceedingly average if a few of those home runs disappeared.

And it’s an odd strikeout and walk profile given Franklin’s approach – he rarely swings. His 42.2% swing rate is in the bottom-100 league-wide and his 59.8% zone swing rate is bottom-50. The issue, then, is that despite not swinging at much in the zone, Franklin still has a 28.5% outside swing rate and has an uninspiring 78.2% contact rate. Basically, Franklin is being very selective but not in the “sit on your pitch in the zone” kind of way – he appears to just not swing very often.

Granted, that’s not a huge concern on it’s own as there are plenty of examples of players succeeding that way. But one of Franklin’s key attributes as a fantasy tool was likely to be his OBP for that type of league and his .314-mark at present is below-average. His BABIP (.300) should be higher given his history and batted ball profile, sure, but Franklin needs those walks to come to fully live up to his top prospect status. That’s more of a “real baseball” comment than a fantasy one, especially since many still play in batting average leagues (where owners would just prefer the strikeout rate comes down to allow for more balls in play).

For the rest of the season, Franklin may still be making adjustments and figuring out the appropriate level of aggression against major league arms. Even with a below-average AVG or OBP, he’s a great own at either middle infield spot. When you figure in that his BABIP and walk rate could both be in for an increase as he figures out his approach, it’s not hard to see Franklin remaining a top-10 option at either spot.

The far bigger issue for dynasty league owners is that Franklin is yet to appear at shortstop in the majors, meaning his current flexibility could be lost. He’ll still be a fine own at second, but the option to move him around has certainly added value to his profile this year and would have made building your team with him as a piece that much easier.

I’m writing this on Friday afternoon, so forgive me if any of the insight in the Daily Five becomes stales by Saturday morning, or line-up changes or injuries occur. You do the best with what you have.

Anyway, I believe in this space someone had previously highlighted guys who did well against same-handed pitchers (“reverse split” players), and I thought it would be a good time to have a fresh look at these tables. Below you’ll find the best Left-vs-Left and Right-vs-Right and the worst Right-vs-Left and Left-vs-Right hitters, covering 2012 and 2013 (to improve our sample size a little bit) with a minimum of 200 plate appearances.

Let these serve as a reminder that not all players require platoon protection in your daily leagues, and not all players with a platoon advantage are sure bets.
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The trade deadline didn’t bring many major changes with it for the fantasy landscape, but it’s worth checking in on players who moved and how their value may be effected for daily leagues.

Bud Norris to Baltimore – As Mike Podhorzer explains, “While he should definitely experience better win potential, I think his ERA is at risk of spiking, though his WHIP could improve with better defensive support.” L.J. Hoes, meanwhile, slotted right into the Astros lineup but isn’t much of a fantasy consideration as a low-HR, 15-SB outfielder.

Ian Kennedy to San Diego – Zach Saunders likes the deal for Kennedy’s pitcher profile, writing, “While Petco’s new dimensions aren’t as pitcher friendly as in the past, the park should still play well towards Kennedy’s tendencies to allow balls to fly through the air.” Zeke Spruill has been called up to start today and take Kennedy’s rotation spot for now.
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Jonathan Villar has flown a bit below the radar since his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies out of the Dominican Republic in 2008. After being dealt to Houston in the Roy Oswalt trade in 2010, he’s steadily moved through the Astros system.

While he’s only been league average at most stops along the way, Villar now finds himself in the majors at 22, being given every opportunity to permanently win the shortstop job, if you believe the team.

Villar doesn’t come with a great deal of prospect pedigree. Marc Hulet ranked him sixth in the Astros system in 2012 (10th in 2011) but thought his upside was too low (“utility guy”) to make the top-15 this season. He’s only cracked Baseball America’s Top-100 list once, coming in at number 94 in 2011. So there doesn’t appear there is much to be excited about.

However, the fact that Villar is older than just nine other players this season (using “Season Age,” not actual date of birth) is impressive. And since he’s been given lead-off duties and stolen four bases in seven games since his call up, people are interested, pushing his ownership tag up to 3.1% in ESPN leagues (4% in Yahoo).

But is there much to like here? Villar is known mostly for his defense and his strikeout rates have been pretty extreme in the minors (above 23% consistently). But he’s matched the whiffs with a decent approach that has landed his walk rate around 8%, giving him some additional OBP value beyond what is sure to be a mediocre average.

With the strikeouts and the lack of a batting average track record despite a high BABIP, it’s hard to see much average upside here. The average isn’t likely to be a concern though, considering his position. Andrelton Simmons is the 12th ranked shortstop in fantasy value this year and he’s batting .251. Elvis Andrus and J.J. Hardy are basically doing the same and rank higher. At shortstop, players are ownable at a pretty low threshold so long as they can provide some category juice.

Villar can likely do that. The speedster averaged 52 stolen bases per 150 games in his time in the minors and has hit the ground running this past week, so to speak, with the aforementioned four stolen bases. He also had an 80% success rate in the minors, a mark that stayed steady as he rose to Double-A and Triple-A. There’s little doubt that Villar can run and do so effectively. And as mentioned, thanks to a decent walk rate, his OBP has a chance to be average or just below, giving him ample opportunity.

Villar is ownable right now for the speed alone. But dynasty league players might be curious about his long term power upside as well, since a shortstop that can go .250-10-30 is immensely valuable. Villar stroked 11 homers per 150 games in the minors and has a frame that you could see additional bulk on as he ages. His isolated slugging has been consistently in the .150-range since High-A ball (though his slugging is low because of the paltry averages). There’s definitely 10-home run power in his bat now and that could eventually be a consistent 15.

Villar isn’t going to wow anybody at the dish, but the bar is so low at the shortstop position that he’s a recommended add right now for the speed and a longer-term option due to his power potential.

Homers can win you a daily pool. There’s no way around this, as they’re worth, at the minimum, seven DraftStreet points (four for the home run and 1.5 for the run and each RBI). But they’re usually expensive or somewhat unpredictable – Alcides Escobar, for example, has three taters this year but hasn’t got one since April 28. Two of them were in the same week and one was off Justin Masterson, who hardly allows home runs himself.

In all, there have been 3,047 home runs this year, with probably only a small portion of those being of a predictable nature. On the other hand, there have been 1,700 stolen bases, and my guess would be that those steals are a bit more predictable because even fewer players attempt steals. (447 players have homered and averaged 6.8 as a group, while 317 players have stolen a base and averaged 5.4 as a group.)
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If you go on the Weather Network website, it’s easy to just type in “Chicago” and get a weather forecast. Right now, for example, it’s 63 and sunny with an 11 MPH wind blowing Northwest. Later, it might rain. Sounds good, right? The Cubs and White Sox are playing in low temperatures with strong wind and a chance of rain.

Except that, y’kno, Wrigley Field and U.S. Cellular Field are 10.5 miles apart, Wrigley to the north and The Cell to the south. That might not seem extreme, but also consider that the parks face different directions. Batters at Wrigley hit the ball north-east while those at U.S. Cellular hit it south-east.

Thus, it’s important to look at each individual park’s weather, using a site like Daily Baseball Data or something similar. Just how big a difference can the parks make beyond “Chicago weather?”
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There’s quite a bit of chaos in the Murphy household at the moment, so I didn’t have time to dive into more stadium-specific wind effects, but look for Wrigley Field data on Saturday.

As for today’s slate, we’ve got an uncharacteristically large player pool to choose from, with 28 teams playing. Usually Thursday’s are heavy on the off days – instead, today’s schedule has six afternoon games. That’s great for viewing but it’s not ideal for daily leagues as you’ll be forced to either set a line-up early or play with a thinner player pool in an evening-only format.

Instead of an environment or league-wide stat focus in today’s preamble, I just want a few extra words on a particular value play among today’s early games.
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