Everybody’s doing it! Scattered across the RotoGraphs pages are ten bold predictions by individual writers, so here are mine. Some of mine are out there, and I should get double if No. 2 hits. But I digress, here are my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season.

1. Colby Rasmus will be a top 15 outfielder. I wrote about Rasmus earlier this week, and feel strongly about his ability to bounce back. His average will never be too great, but Toronto is a great park for left-handed home runs (114 on StatCorner) and the Blue Jays finished eighth in the league in steals. A 30-20 season is possible for the 25-year-old.

2. Jayson Werth and Jason Bay both bounce back. Big contracts and lackluster results, that’s been the story for both of these NL East outfielders. I think that changes this year. Bay destroyed lefties last year, 156 wRC+, and I like him getting it together against righties this year. Werth had most of his power disappear, but he is just one year removed from a 146 wRC+ season. I think both finish with marks near 120 this year.
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This was unexpected, to say the least. The Astros have named Brett Myers as their closer before spring training games have even started, which finally helps us figure out who will pitch the ninth in Houston this year. Nearly all of Myers’s value last season as an innings eater, which is why this announcement is such a surprise. He was the only Astro to top 200 innings last year, which was also the case in 2010. Even so, the Astros are moving Myers to closer, a position he held in Philadelphia in 2007.

As seen above, Myers does receive a significant upgrade in his stats when you split his numbers between relief and starting appearances, which is true for most pitchers.

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After a down year, Colby Rasmus’s fantasy draft vaue has dropped drastically. Last year, he was going somewhere near the eighth or ninth round. This year, Rasmus is going in round 17, with an ADP of 207.3. Both Vernon Wells and Carlos Lee have better ADPs than Rasmus, which should simply not be the case. Regardless, the significant drop in Rasmus’s draft position is well deserved. He had an on base percentage below .300 last year, and his only useful fantasy stat was his 14 long balls, nine fewer than he hit in 2011.

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On Wednesday I explained why Joel Hanrahan is a bit undervalued in comparison to John Axford. The next step I decided to take is to evaluate Hanrahan’s fastball to elaborate on why his success last year should continue this season as well. After all, Hanrahan had 269 innings in his career before the 68.2 he threw last year. Standard thinking would force one to believe his 209 ERA+ season was an outlier, as his career ERA+ is just 106.

However, as I explained in the article earlier this week, Hanrahan altered his approach on the mound. He turned into a fastball dominant pitcher, moving away from the fastball-slider combination he had utilized for the majority of his career. At least some credit must be given to Ray Searage, the Pirates pitching coach, and the rest of the group that decided this would be a much more effective way for Hanrahan to pitch.

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The consensus around the fantasy industry seems to be that John Axford is a top tier closer while Joel Hanrahan is more of a second tier guy. Among closers, Axford has been drafted third in standard mock drafts on Mock Draft Central and fifth in expert drafts, while Hanrahan sits at eighth and tenth respectively. To me, there seems to be a bit too large of a gap between their draft positions.

Hanrahan has posted two consecutive sub-3.00 FIP seasons, though his ERA dropped almost two full runs from 2010 to last season. The drop in ERA had a lot to do with Hanrahan’s pitching approach, as he threw his fastball over 15% more than his career average. This resulted in a 10% increase in ground balls and only one home run allowed compared to his yearly average of six long balls given up.

While his career BABIP of .318 and 8.2% HR/FB ratio point to a regression, — he posted a career best .282 BABIP and 1.9% HR/FB ratio last year — his new approach seems to be a good counter-point against his numbers reverting back to career rates. Even if you do expect a regression, he should maintain similar success on batted balls with his new fastball heavy method.

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Matt Joyce season endured a roller coaster season in his first year as the main right fielder for the Rays. Batting .370 over the season’s first two months, Joyce hit just .226 for the remainder of the season. Joyce was expected to be a platoon player, but he was hitting so well during the early parts of the year that the Rays allowed him to start 15 games against left-handed pitchers. The experiment did not go well, as Joyce hit just .151/.244/.233 against left-handed starters

Entering this season, it looks like the Rays are accepting the fact that Joyce is a platoon partner. In signing Jeff Keppinger, owner of a .302/.360/.432 line against lefties, the Rays will most likely employ a platoon of Keppinger playing second base against lefties and Joyce playing right field against righties, with Ben Zobrist moving back and forth between the two positions. This is a wise baseball decision, as both struggle against pitchers of their same handedness but are very good against opposite handed pitchers.

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In leagues that designate between starting pitchers and relief pitchers, and especially in leagues that use both designations and account for holds, value can be found in relief pitchers with starting pitcher eligibility. Below are a couple names to keep an eye on if you participate in these types of leagues.

Alexi Ogando

Ogando’s fantasy value is taking a huge hit after his impressive rookie season. The young-right hander is being moved to the bullpen, and will primarily be a set-up man as Joe Nathan was signed to close games for the Rangers. Ogando’s move to the bullpen does give him some value as a dual-eligible reliever though, as he will have starter pitching eligibility in drafts. He should see his performance rise, as relievers often see their earned run average decrease by about a run after transitioning from the rotation. If Ogando piles up strikeouts and pitches to an ERA in the mid-2.50 range, he could have value to a league that accounts for holds, especially since he can be assigned to either pitcher role.

Kyle McClellan

McClellan did not have the type of success in the rotation that the Cardinals hoped for when they asked him to fill in for Adam Wainwright last season. He was eventually moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen, but did not pitch to the level of effectiveness that he did in 2010. With a full-time move back into the ‘pen, the sinkerballer may be able to tally holds as a dual-eligible reliever. He is not the most effective reliever and his strikeout rate is below average, but if you have a league where you can take advantage of his holds and dual-eligibility, he could be worth a look.

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Judging the Braves defense in 2011 depends on which stats or methods you see as the most accurate. For instance, UZR has the Braves ranked in the bottom five of defensive teams while DRS has the Braves ranked in the top nine. Alex Gonzalez (-0.3 UZR, +15 DRS) and Freddie Freeman (-12.6 UZR, 0 DRS) are the two players the numbers disagree with most, and are a big reason for the differences in the two totals.

Whatever stats you decide to look at, it is easy to see that the Braves’ defensive strength was in the outfield, where both Jason Heyward and Martin Prado were above average defenders. The Braves shuffled centerfielders for a majority of the season, with Jordan Schafer, Michael Bourn, and Nate McLouth all amassing similar innings totals in center. McLouth was quite poor in center while the other two were at least average to above average.

The problem with the Braves defense, and what is likely to be an even bigger problem this season, was the infield. Freeman likely is not the plus defender many expected, but he probably also is not as bad as the one year UZR sample suggests. He is closer to average defensively, which is fine. Gonzalez was a top notch defender the whole season, which was the lone reason for the Braves sticking with him at shortstop for the entirety of the year was in his high quality glove.

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There were only a handful of relievers who pitched as well or better than Greg Holland did over the course of last season. He was one of just seven two win pitchers, and could have finished near the top of the league had he not thrown 21.2 innings at triple-A.

Holland is more-or-less a classic two pitch reliever, but he relies more on his slider than most of his peers. According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw his slider on 42% of his pitches last year compared to the 50% rate that he threw his fastball, which is a rather high slider to fastball ratio. In generating an astonishing 30% whiff rate even with such a high frequency, his PITCHf/x slider value of 12.2 ranked second in the league behind only Mike Adams.

Not surprisingly, Holland went to his slider much more frequently than his fastball in one and two strike counts. Getting ahead with his high velocity fastball then moving to the top notch slider provided great dividends for Holland and any fantasy owners last year. His contact percentage was third to only Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, the top two strikeout arms in the league.

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