Being a pitcher who focuses heavily on command while limiting home runs, Milone is the near perfect pitcher for spot starting in Oakland. He only has 30 innings pitched in Oakland this year, but he has a very nice .179 wOBA against at home. In leagues with inning caps or where you can afford using a starter in only about half of his starts, Milone is the near optimal pitcher to use as a spot starter in home starts only.
Ryan Cook has now pitched 19.2 scoreless innings in a set up role for the Athletics, while Pedro Strop has a vultures three wins, six holds, and a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings pitched. Let’s see if the success of these two relative unknowns will continue.
In terms of Yahoo! ranks, Martin Prado has been the seventh most valuable fantasy third baseman, one behind Adrian Beltre and one ahead of David Freese. Despite having just two home runs, Prado has seen a big bounce back from his poor and injury riddled 2011 season, and should be able to sustain solid numbers close to his career averages for the remainder of the season.
In comparing Prado’s .307/.350/.459 All-Star season in 2010 to his current .314/.384/.450 mark this year, the first thing that is noticed is an improved command of the strike zone. In seeing a near identical amount of pitchers per plate appearance (3.94 in ’10 to 3.98 in ’12), Prado has turned his walk-to-strikeout ratio from 0.47 to 0.88. The big improvement in both his walk and strikeout rates points to his performance being sustainable, which is obviously a good sign for any current or prospective owner.
Gavin Floyd has been a rather consistent pitcher the past few years, as his xFIP has been nowhere below 3.64 and nowhere above 3.73 over the past three seasons. This year, Floyd’s ERA looks great, with a 2.53 mark through seven starts and 46.1 innings, but once again his xFIP is comparable to season’s past, with a 3.77 mark.
The worry with Floyd is that his ERA has consistently been above his peripherals, which likely has something to do with his home ballpark. He has an 11.4% home run per fly ball ratio for his career, with a 12.4% mark at home and 10.6% away. Homers have not been kind to Floyd in his career, and especially not when pitching in his hitter friendly home ballpark.
Lance Berkman’s return to from the disabled list is the last thing any Allen Craig owner wanted to hear, but the multi-position eligible power bat should still find enough time to be productive in fantasy leagues.
Currently, Craig is owned in just 61% of Yahoo! leagues, which is borderline criminal at this point. After starting at first base in Berkman’s absence, Craig is now eligible at 1B, 2B, and OF. With Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, and Berkman all being aging veterans, and John Jay being a left-handed hitter, Craig should still find enough time between the corner outfield positions and first base to receive enough plate appearances to remain valuable.
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Holds leagues are always tricky, and holds leagues that have innings limits are even trickier. Finding relievers who are in line for high hold-to-innings pitched ratios are often undervalued in these types of leagues, like ottoneu, and can be found for cheap while providing respectable value. These are not world beaters or team savers, but they can boost points totals efficiently and effectively over the course of the year for an extremely cheap cost. Here are three LOOGY’s who have done so thus far and should continue to the rest of the season.
As an owner of Sipp in ottoneu, I have seen his value first hand. With just 9.2 innings pitched and with ten strikeouts to two walks, Sipp has been worth 62.43 points. His six holds in just those 9.2 innings has made him very valuable, and in a league that accounts for innings limits and uses holds, he is an undervalued commodity. He is certainly not a team saver, but he is an efficient point getter in this format. In ERA leagues, he looks like a terrible addition, due to his 8.38 ERA, but that number should come down rather rapidly. If you are looking for a cheap source of holds in a limited amount of innings with what should be solid strikeout and rate stats going forward, Sipp is worth a look in certain formats.
Byrdak has been extremely good this year, with a 2.33 FIP and 13.03 K/9 to 2.79 BB/9, along with seven holds in 9.2 innings. Byrdak had just eight holds last season, so the jump in this level is at least somewhat surprising. His career high is 11 from two years ago and in 2005, which means he should be in line for a career high mark this year. Byrdak’s situation is similar to Sipp’s in that his ERA does not quite match his FIP, but his difference is not nearly as drastic. With a 3.72 ERA, Byrdak has been playable to date in ERA leagues and if he continues to strikeout as many as he has and walk as few, he should see that number drop.
Scrabble has four holds in 13 appearances spanning 10 innings, with a nice 8-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 28 games last season he netted 8 holds in 22.2 innings, so this is a nice trend that has continued in his Cardinal tenure. A total of 12 holds in 32.2 innings is pretty respectable and valuable in certain formats. ZiPS has him with a 3.60 ERA and 3.61 FIP going forward, but his sub-3.00 FIP in the NL points to the projection being a bit high. He won’t continue to receive a .179 BABIP, so his 1.80 ERA should certainly rise, but his command has been solid thus far which is nice to see from a pitcher with a career walk per nine rate above 4.00. Again, in leagues where you can take advantage of holds and have innings limits, Rzepcynski is a solid add if the roster space is available.
The league leader in WAR for second basemen? Kelly Johnson. I made some pretty bold predictions in our staff-wide preseason series, one of them being that Matt Kemp will not even get to 30/30 (looking like a bad one). One of the ones that is looking good so far is my prediction of Kelly Johnson being a top-5 second baseman.
In Yahoo! leagues, Johnson is currently the third ranked second baseman. His seven home runs leads the group, a group that consists of more home run threats than in past seasons. He has also added over 20 runs, with his team’s best hitter, Jose Bautista, hitting under .200 directly behind him (Johnson batted second until recently). Since moving to the leadoff spot, Johnson is three for three in steal attempts, and should score more runs as Bautista’s production improves. Johnson’s season is looking much more like his breakout 2010 campaign than his underwhelming 2011 season, which is exactly what those who drafted him were hoping for.
After Carlos Marmol’s three walk, -.701 WPA outing against the Reds one week ago, he was removed from the closer spot in Chicago, but the Cubs have yet to state whether James Russell or Rafael Dolis will close games in Marmol’s absence.
Marmol set-up for Russell two days ago against the Braves, with Russell coming in during the ninth after the Cubs had already extended their lead, making it a non-save situation. Dolis has two saves, but I think Marmol gets his job back rather soon. While you certainly want your closers to have good peripherals and a solid lock on the closer spot, I don’t think it is time to cut bait with Marmol just yet.
Much of the talk of the Rangers’ staff this offseason was Neftali Feliz moving to the rotation, with Alexi Ogando’s re-entrance to the bullpen seemingly being a backstory. Ogando had previously pitched out of the bullpen in 2010, throwing 41.2 innings and earning 0.8 WAR in the process.
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Mike Minor being owned in just 58% of Yahoo! leagues is near criminal. While he is far from an ace, he should probably be owned in at least as many leagues as Lance Lynn (77%) or Brandon Morrow (85%). Not that those pitchers are bad, but Minor seems to be at least their equals. The fact that he is available in this leagues means there’s at least a decent chance he is available in your league, and probably an even better chance that an opponent in your league would be willing to trade him for less value than he should be worth.