It may surprise some, considering this high ERA and low strikeout rate compared to his career average, but Josh Johnson actually has the seventh highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball. Despite having a similar FIP and xFIP as he has over the past number of years, his ERA has ballooned to 4.27, which makes me see a great buy low opportunity in Johnson.

As mentioned, his strikeouts are down compared to his career average. His 20.1% strikeout rate is certainly low for a pitcher with the kind of stuff and history that Johnson has, as he has struck out 22.1% of batters for his career and 25% in his last season of 180 or more innings, but he has complimented his lower strikeout rate with a lower walk rate as well. With his fastball velocity down to 93 miles per hour from the 94.9 its as in 2009, he has had to alter the way he pitches. In his two previous 180+ inning seasons, his walk rate was lower than it is now, but his current 7% walk rate is lower than the 8% mark he has for his career. This has allowed him to net a 2.87 K/BB rate, slightly better than his career 2.76 ratio.

Where Johnson is getting killed is in his BABIP, which currently sits at .360. Although there must always be a disclaimer of potential scoring bias when looking at line drive rate, his line drive rate of 25.4% does correlate with a higher BABIP, but the substantial increase seems unwarranted.

Owners will notice that he has a 3.16 ERA over his past four starts, but that does not mean that he cannot be acquired for a discounted price. If a team is pitching deep and owns Johnson, they could be willing to move him for something else at this point, as his overall performance has not quite lived up to expectations — though he did get drafted at a discount due to his injury history.

The injury history is certainly always a worry with Johnson, but it is good to see him go through the first third of the season unscathed. He is on pace for 207 innings, which would mark only his second season above the 200 inning threshold. The opportunity for injury is always there, which could also be played into the equation when attempting to acquire him. Is he the most attractive target ever due to his recent success and his injury history? No, but he still has been a similarly productive pitcher as when he posted a 2.64 ERA in 453 innings between 2009 and 2011. The fact that he has more-or-less pitched just as effectively but seen poor results should help any pitching starved team looking to acquire a potential ace-type reliever at a lower cost than usual.

Josh Lindblom

With 13 holds, Josh Lindbolm has the third highest total in all of baseball. This past year, Lindblom was rated the fourth best prospect in the Dodger’s system by Marc Hulet (8th by Baseball America), so the talent in the arm is certainly there. He has a big ERA-FIP split, as his 2.51 ERA is nearly half of his 4.98 FIP. Both numbers should begin to converge, as his HR/FB% will likely not remain at 18.2%. Lindblom has a nice fastball and slider mix, with both his four-seamer and two-seamer sitting in the low 90’s. A guy like Lindblom can help right now in a holds league and should be in the set up role for the next number of years. In dynasty or deep keeper leagues with high keeper totals that use holds, Lindblom is definitely an attractive target.

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His start today against the Cardinal’s right-handed heavy offense will certainly be a very big test, but I still like J.A. Happ for the rest of the season.

Happ has improved most of his meaningful, predictive numbers. His strikeout rate is way up, at 23.1% (9.05 K/9) against a career average of 19.2% (7.39 K/9) and his walk rate has actually dropped to 8.5% (3.34 BB/9) against a career rate of 10.3% (3.99). The improvement of his strikeout and walk rates have allowed him to record a reasonable 2.71 K/BB, which is significantly better than the 1.85 mark he has for his career. While a 2.71 K/BB rate is not a tremendous number, it does show that he has improved.

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J.J. Putz

With a 6.00 ERA, J.J. Putz can likely be taken from an owner looking to solidify his ERA and WHIP in standard formats. Of course, he is owned for his saves, so swapping a lesser closer who is over performing — Matt Capps and maybe Brett Myers, for instance — could be necessary in some leagues.

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Billy Buter, AKA Country Breakfast, may finally be worth a slot as a full-time first baseman in standard formats. Butler’s often had to be utilized as a fill in at the position or someone to stick in the utility slot, but his increased power has made him a top-12 player at the most hitter friendly position in the game.

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Jason Grilli has been one of the top middle relievers in all of baseball so far this season, netting a 1.80/2.33/2.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP along with 0.5 wins out of the bullpen in exactly 20 innings. Currently, Grilli has the highest strikeout rate of his career, by far, at 42.7%.

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With injuries disabling stars around the league, the time in the year to scoop up the waiver wire for valuable pieces that can be utilized in different ways is beginning. Using players who do not play every day or are put into platoons can be a good way to find value where others look over, especially if they are on the good side of the platoon (lefty hitters who mash righty pitchers). Here are three guys I like in a platoon role going forward.

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The key to having a K/BB higher than a K/9 is having a BB/9 under 1. That usually means a walk percentage below 3%. To put a walk rate that low into perspective, the league average walk rate for relievers is 9.3%, so a rate under 3% is just tremendous. Here are three relievers who have walk rates so low that their K/BB rate is better than their K/9 rate. These guys can help a fantasy team due to the low amount of base runners they allow on along with relatively high strikeout rates. In a linear weights league like ottoneu, relievers like this become even more valuable.

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I drafted Jonathan Lucroy in the staff ottoneu league, but if it were a different league with a different players and a different set up, right now is when I would be trying to move him.

It certainly think that Lucroy is good and relatively undervalued to the every day fan, but I also I think his performance to date is inflated and that with catcher being a relatively weak hitting position with not many high average hitters, he can be moved for more value than he was originally acquired for. Lucroy is currently owned in 56% of Yahoo! leagues, which is rather criminal, but that means he’s on squads in most competitive leagues and good owners should be looking to acquire a high average, high RBI catcher.

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With Drew Storen attempting to return at the All-Star break, manager Davey Johnson stated he is opting for a “closer by committee” approach to the ninth inning in Washington. Tyler Clippard received his first ninth inning save opportunity of the year, and closed it down by retiring each batter faced with one strikeout.

Clippard stated that he really wants the closer job, and he may be given the opportunity over the next few weeks. Johnson wants to keep Clippard in his set-up role, which does offer a solid amount of leverage, but the ninth inning in general is the highest leverage situations and Clippard may prove to be the most consistent option late in games. Sean Burnett and Craig Stammen may also get opportunities, but there is something to be said for Clippard getting the first shot after Johnson announced the closer by committee strategy.

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