With John Axford’s colossal struggles as the closer this year, which has somewhat to do with reliever volatility and somewhat to due with command issues, Francisco Rodriguez is back in ninth inning for the first time since his Mets tenure.
In all likelihood, Brett Myers will be dealt at this year’s trade deadline. His eventual trade will cause a ripple effect in the Astros bullpen, moving a set up man to the ninth inning and a middle reliever up to a set up role. The options are currently Brandon Lyon — who actually may also be traded — and Wilton Lopez.
Last year, Elliot Johnson was one of the worst hitters in the majors. With a 57 wRC+ backed by just four home runs, six steals, and a strikeout rate near 30%, Johnson’s lackluster performance had many questioning whether he would even earn any playing time this year. With injuries this year to infielders Evan Longoria and Jeff Keppinger and an even worse hitting performance from one of his primary shortstop competitors last year in Reid Brignac, Johnson has amassed 230 plate appearances and has been quite solid, netting a 110 wRC+.
Some of the performance is likely inflated, but Johnson has had a very effective year as a dual eligible middle infielder. An improved walk rate, reduced strikeout rate, and dramatically increased line drive rate have led to Johnson’s solid .275/.339/.386 line. The power has dropped, but the on base skills have improved as his ISO falls. Johnson’s biggest attribute in a fantasy context has been in his stolen bases, where he has nabbed 15 bags in 19 chances.
Charlie Furbush’s transition to reliever has certainly worked out well. After starting 12 games last season and throwing 59.1 innings, Furbush had a 6.83 ERA and a 2.67 K/BB ratio — with 12 home runs allowed. In a relief role, Furbush has a 2.19 ERA in 61.2 innings, a 3.10 K/BB ratio, and only seven home runs allowed.
Jose Reyes was drafted as a three category juggernaut in a prime position. Owners expected him to be near the top of the league in steals, average, and runs as he will hit atop a lineup that was expected to be very formidable. Things have not quite gone as planned, despite having an extremely healthy first half.
This year has most certainly not been the type of year many expected out of Jonny Venters. After posting consecutive years with an ERA below 2.00, Venters’ ERA has ballooned to over 4 while his velocity has dropped a mile per hour on all of his pitches.
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Yahoo! currently has Craig Kimbrel as the 21st ranked pitcher in fantasy, and 47th best player overall. So, is it worth it to go after the fireballing reliever who has the lowest ERA in history in the amount of innings he has thrown? My short answer is probably not, but if you desperately need saves and strikeouts while you have depth in other spots, then I can see an argument for trading for him.
Everyone knows what Kimbrel does, but it is difficult to trade the house for someone who is on pace to throw just 33 more innings for the rest of the season. Judging by Yahoo!’s value, Madison Bumgarner or Zack Greinke would be equal trading partners, two players I would not give up for any closer. Keep in mind that Yahoo! ranks Jim Johnson and Aroldis Chapman ahead of Kimbrel, due mostly to the fact that they have thrown more innings and the rate stats are comparable — though Johnson’s strikeouts are nowhere near comparable to the other two. Kenley Jansen is not too far behind them.
In trading for Kimbrel offering a package of two quality players would be the recommended strategy rather than trading a sure-fire stud. For a sole player, someone like Jordan Zimmermann seems like fair value in a straight-away deal, due to his great rate stats but pedestrian strikeout numbers.
The real good situation to be in is to be an owner of Kimbrel. There are teams in every league looking for saves, and if you own Kimbrel, who has been the best closer in the game over the past two years, you are likely in a great position to leverage his skills to acquire the combination of a lesser closer and another very good player. As a current owner of Kimbrel in a keeper league, while I also own Casey Janssen and Rafael Betancourt, this is a strategy I am strongly considering.
It is not selling high, as Kimbrel is simply an astounding pitcher, but it is maximizing value and helping your team in areas where it is currently struggling. While Kimbrel is great, the difference between Kimbrel and Rafael Soriano in fantasy leagues is a few saves, 21 strikeouts, and a bit of WHIP. With the difference being relatively minor and the real value being in the save total — which will likely not be too different over the remainder of the season — a trade of Kimbrel for Soriano and either a starting pitcher or solid bat could provide a team with solid value. Kimbrel is a great pitcher, but closers are often a bit overvalued in fantasy for a number of reasons. Don’t be afraid to trade your better players just because they are playing well or are the best at their position, as the label of “best at their position” may increase their trade value in itself.
After turning to veterans to fill in the back end of the rotation, the Padres are now turning youthful Andrew Cashner into a starting pitcher. Like most Padre pitchers, Cashner has been better at home — though he has thrown just 28.1 innings this year.
His home ERA/FIP/xFIP is 2.70/3.47/3.12 compared to 5.40/4.60/3.35 in games away from Petco. While the sample is small, the spread will likely continue, though it should at least somewhat narrow. As a reliever, Cashner boasted heavy strikeout numbers as well as a high walk total. That will likely continue on a lesser extent as a starter. He has been moved in an out of minor league rotations since the start of 2010, so anticipating how his rate stats will look as a starter is somewhat complicated.
What isn’t complicated is that Cashner’s ability to get left-handers out, which will be instrumental to any success he may have as a starter. His .315 wOBA against is not tremendous, but he boasts a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.11) and xFIP (3.59) against lefties than he does against righties, where his marks are 1.59 and 4.05 respectively. Again, this is in just 93.1 career major league innings, but it is certainly a good sign for his sustainability as a starter.
Cashner likely won’t throw 98 out of the rotation as he did in the bullpen, but he will still be a very high velocity pitcher. With his change up becoming a higher quality pitch with more frequent usage, I could envision Cashner being a respectable starter for the rest of the season, with potentially more upside than that.
His three starts in double-A were a great success as he was getting stretched out for the rotation. He is expected to dominate those type of hitters, but a 23-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio including two hit batsmen is certainly a good sign. I picked Cashner up in my 12-team keeper league with close to standard scoring, though my pitching is pretty poor in this league. At this time, if you are looking for pitching on the waiver wire and are having a hard time finding anyone but meddling ~4.00 ERA starters with poor track records, take a flier on Cashner and see if he pans out. I think he can be at least solid, and at worst a solid home spot starter as most of the Padres rotation is.
With the trade deadline looming and injuries affecting many contender’s bullpens, non-contending teams will start listening in on offers for closers. Many of these closers will lose value in roto leagues, but in holds leagues such as ottoneu or any other league that accounts for holds, the value of these relievers is still prevalent. Some teams may be looking to ditch these relievers as the deadline nears, but if you are looking to solidify your bullpen for the stretch run of the season, these closer trade candidates could be solid targets.
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Eric Wedge announced that Brandon League will regain his ninth inning role sooner than later, which is upsetting to Tom Wilhelmsen owners but is refreshing for those who have stuck with League through his early season struggles.
Despite Wilhelmsen’s three consecutive saves in three straight opportunities, he may soon be moved back to the set up role. In keeper or dynasty leagues, Wilhelmsen is certainly the player to target if you are looking for the closer of the future in Seattle. With League being an impending free agent, Wilhelmsen will most likely take over the role for next season. If League pitches well over the course of the next month and a half, he could even be a trade candidate for a team looking for right-handed pitching help.