Sean Doolittle was named to his first National League All-Star team on Sunday (he was also an American League All-Star with Oakland in 2014), and he’s clearly been worthy of the distinction in both the real and fantasy worlds. He has compiled a 1.45 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 22 saves and 49 strikeouts to date and ranks as the top reliever in terms of Roto value in the NL (per ESPN’s Player Rater).

Not all of the news for Doolittle was positive on Sunday. Earlier in the day, reports surfaced of Doolittle having a strained toe. By multiple accounts, the injury is minor, and he may even have been able to pitch in the series finale against the Marlins. It was a moot point, as the Marlins won in a 10-2 laugher.
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The last two weeks of June did not go smoothly for Brad Hand, but the Padres’ closer got his July off to a good start. Making his first appearance in five days, Hand preserved a 6-3 lead against the Diamondbacks for his 24th save of the season. After giving up a soft ground ball single to Daniel Descalso to lead off the bottom of the ninth inning, Hand struck out the next three Diamondbacks in succession.

Over his final six appearances in June, Hand had no problem missing bats, posting a 17.9 percent swinging strike rate, but when he did allow contact, it tended to be airborne (36.8 percent ground ball rate) and not gentle (10.5 percent soft contact rate). That contributed to him allowing at least one run in four of those appearances for a total of seven runs over five innings. It’s a little too soon to determine if Hand is past his difficulties, but Thursday’s outing was a step in the right direction.
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It just hasn’t been Salvador Perez’s season so far. He missed the Royals’ first 20 games with a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee, which he sustained while carrying luggage. Perez responded well upon his return, posting an .840 OPS over his first 11 games and even catching both games of a doubleheader just four days after getting activated.

Since then, Perez has been hampered by a different type of baggage. Over his last 54 games, he has been batting .194 overall and just .201 on balls in play. His xBA over that period, according to Baseball Savant, is .257, but that doesn’t mean that Perez’s fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy the positive regression to come. Over last month, encompassing 101 plate appearances, Perez has batted .163 with one home run and three doubles, and his hard contact rate has been a pedestrian 34.7 percent.
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A two-start streak — good or bad — is typically not enough for drawing strong conclusions about a pitcher’s value, but hey, a meaningful upturn or downturn has to start somewhere.

For Wei-Yin Chen and Kyle Gibson, a change in fortune would not be totally unexpected. Chen’s three-year tenure with the Marlins has been marred by injury and a level of performance that has paled in comparison to that which he enjoyed with the Orioles. Perhaps we’re finally starting to see the version of the lefty the Marlins expected when they signed him to a five-year, $80 million deal. Gibson, on the other hand, is enjoying the best season of his career, but could he be on the precipice of regression?
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On a day where there were far more developments regarding setup relievers, Sergio Romo further consolidated his status as the Rays’ primary closer. He did allow the second of Evan Gattis‘ two home runs in Sunday’s 3-2 win over the Astros, but a walk to Tyler White was the only other blemish on Romo’s ninth inning. He recorded his eighth save of the season and has been the recipient of seven of the Rays’ last eight saves.

The lone exception came on Friday, when Jose Alvarado retired Marwin Gonzalez for a one-out save. Even then, it was Romo who started off the ninth inning with a one-run lead. Alvardo was summoned only when Romo yielded a two-out Gattis single, and Kevin Cash opted to turn Gonzalez around to bat right-handed. Entering Friday’s game, Gonzalez’s .285 wOBA against lefties was 25 points lower than his mark against righties. While Alvarado could take an occasional save away from Romo when matchups dictate, it looks safe to assume that the former Giant and Dodger will be receiving the vast majority of save chances.
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Though he is owned sparingly in fantasy leagues, Sam Gaviglio is a slightly above-average American League pitcher in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate. His current season, however, is nothing short of extreme.

The typical pitcher in 2018 is less attached to the strike zone. Over the previous eight seasons, Zone% had largely held steady year-to-year, ranging from a low of 44.2 percent in 2013 to a high of 45.8 percent in 2010. So far in 2018, the major league average Zone% is down to 43.1 percent.

While the average pitcher has slightly loosened his grip on throwing in the strike zone, Sam Gaviglio has been radical in his eschewing of the zone. Over 74.1 innings in his rookie 2017 season, split between the Mariners and Royals, a control-minded Gaviglio threw exactly half of his 1,126 pitches in the strike zone. This year, with the Blue Jays, the 28-year-old righty has gone wild, locating only 38.3 percent of his pitches in the zone.
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It looks as if we have a full-blown committee situation in San Francisco.

That’s because Sam Dyson, who was annointed as the primary closer 10 days ago after Hunter Strickland broke his hand punching a door, has allowed six runs (five earned) in seven innings since said annointment. On Thursday, Dyson blew a save and took the loss against the Rockies, having given the visitors the lead by allowing DJ LeMahieu’s two-run homer.
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Jeurys Familia has had his ups and downs this season, but he hit a new low on Wednesday when he did not retire any of the four batters he faced in the Mets’ 5-3 loss to the Pirates. He began the top of the ninth inning with a 3-1 lead, and he allowed three straight singles. Familia stayed in to face Jordy Mercer with the bases loaded, but a four-pitch walk cut the lead to a run and ended his night. He was relieved by Anthony Swarzak, who did him no favors by allowing David Freese‘s two-RBI single and Josh Bell’s sacrifice fly.

While this most recent outing was particularly bad for Familia, he had been struggling on and off for a month and a half. Over a span of 15.2 inning entering Wednesday’s game, Famila had compiled a 3.45 ERA and 1.72 WHIP, and a .408 BABIP rate was key to the bloating of his ratios. Going back to May 13, Familia has allowed hard contact at a 34.0 percent rate, but that slightly-elevated rate hardly seems to be cause for an astronomical BABIP. According to Baseball Savant, there is reason to be skeptical — and hopeful — about Familia’s recent trend. While he has allowed batters to hit .353 against him over his last 15 appearances, his opponents’ collective xBA is just .277 over that period.
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Entering the Giants’ Tuesday night game against the Rockies, it had been one week since Sam Dyson had recorded his one-and-only save since Hunter Strickland was placed on the DL. Given that he had a couple of shaky outings in the interim and that Bruce Bochy called on Will Smith to pitch the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game with the Padres on Sunday, one had to wonder if Dyson was still the Giants’ primary closer.

Whatever worries Dyson — or his fantasy owners — may have had were somewhat assuaged in Tuesday’s 3-2 win. Dyson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his third save of the season, though there were some nail-biting moments. He gave up a leadoff double to Tom Murphy and issued a one-out walk to pinch hitter Chris Iannetta. Dyson appeared to get out of the inning on a DJ LeMahieu double play ball, but the Rockies challenged the call, which was ultimately upheld.
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Over the last few seasons, I have become a more aggressive pitch-and-ditcher. While I have not reached the point of taking action — either adding or dropping — on the basis of a single start, I have come to realize that a new direction taken by a pitcher in back-to-back starts often goads me into considering a move.

Two starts don’t quite represent a trend, but if you wait for a pitcher to show clear signs of trending in a new direction, you usually lose an opportunity to add pitchers who are moving in a positive direction. You may also be unnecessarily saddling yourself with bad starts from a slumping pitcher in the name of patience.
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