I’m sorry, Luke Jackson. I’m not quite ready to cast A.J. Minter out of the first column of the closer grid.

Jackson certainly deserves a shot to be the Braves’ closer, and the opportunity could come soon, given how bumpy of a ride it’s been for Minter this season. One day after Minter failed to protect a one-run lead, he was handed another one-run lead in the top of the ninth inning against the Rockies. He began by allowing back-to-back singles to Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story, and one batter later, he gave way to Jackson. The 27-year-old dispensed with Nolan Arenado and David Dahl in seven pitches, earning his first save of the season.
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For the first three weeks of the season, the Phillies’ closer situation was as murky as any in the majors. That all seemed to change when, in the span of four days, Hector Neris picked up a pair of saves and also pitched a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at Colorado. Neris’ two performances at Coors Field were especially impressive, as he pitched 2.2 innings without allowing a baserunner and tallied five strikeouts.

Neris was the Phillies’ closer around this time last season, but by late May, he was out of the saves picture. The flyball-prone righty did not lack for whiffs or strikeouts, but too much of the contact he allowed was hard. That propensity hurt Neris again on Thursday night, as he gave up a game-winning home run to Starlin Castro in the 10th inning of the Marlins’ 3-1 victory. To his credit, Neris has been getting more ground balls so far this year, but flyballs and line drives have been hit against him with an average exit velocity of 98.0 mph.
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The fog seems to be clearing from the Padres’ outfield situation, but even with Matt Kemp out, it’s not apparent whether or not the Reds have a timeshare in center field. Also, the playing time situations for Colin Moran, Alex Verdugo and Raimel Tapia bear watching. Details are just below.
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For the second night in a row, Emilio Pagan notched a save for the Rays against the Royals, tossing a perfect inning in both contests. He is not anywhere near the top of the most-added lists on ESPN and CBS, but he is at the very top of Yahoo’s list. Pagan was called into closer duty on both occasions because the usual candidates — Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo — were unavailable due to heavy workloads over the weekend.

Because Kevin Cash sent us a strong signal that Pagan is next-in-line for saves after Alvarado and Castillo, he now sits behind the Rays’ two main high-leverage relievers in our closer grid. Even without saves, Pagan is not a bad reliever to own in holds leagues and deeper formats. He gets swings-and-misses (career 14.1 percent SwStr%) and a ton of popups, and he throws strikes, making him a reliable bet to post a low WHIP.
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By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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I know it’s early, but I think we can spot a pattern with Mychal Givens.

It’s fair to call Givens the Orioles’ primary closer, but a better (if not catchier) title would be “guy who comes in to clean up a mess in the eighth inning.” On Thursday night, and for the fifth time this season, Givens was called upon with runners on base in the eighth inning. Paul Fry and Evan Phillips had already allowed the Rays to whittle a 5-2 lead down to 5-4, but Givens restored order by getting the final two outs. In coming back out for the ninth inning, Givens had a chance to collect his first save of the season, but a one-out solo shot by Avisail Garcia ruined that.
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We are now three full weeks into the season, and managers are starting to respond to players’ hot and cold starts. That gives the fantasy owners of players like Brian Dozier, Kyle Schwarber, and Ender Inciarte something more to think about, and owners of Yasmani Grandal and Manuel Margot something to feel good about.

Here are the lineup and batting order trends of note for each of the 15 teams in the senior circuit.
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The Phillies, Red Sox and Twins have made it difficult to know who we can rely on for saves, but that’s been pretty much by design. Suddenly, the Braves’ bullpen has become possibly the toughest one to figure out.

When the Braves placed Arodys Vizcaino (shoulder) on the IL on Sunday, that appeared to actually simplify their bullpen situation, as A.J. Minter figured to inherit virtually all of the save opportunities. The lefty fared well enough on Sunday night, pitching a perfect ninth inning in a Braves 7-3 win over the Mets. The stakes were a little higher on Tuesday night, as Minter was charged with keeping the score knotted at 6-6, giving his offense a chance to top the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning with a single run. It took only two pitches for Minter to allow the Diamondbacks to surge ahead, as Christian Walker drove a cutter in the middle of the strike zone for a solo home run. He was charged with two more runs when Jacob Webb allowed an Adam Jones double that brought in two inherited baserunners.
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After Monday’s smallish slate of games, there have been a total of 241 games played so far this season. That’s 9.9 percent of the total schedule. By the time Tuesday’s games are done, the status bar will have moved to 10.5 percent. For a very brief moment, we still have the opportunity to say, “we’re not even 10 percent through this season!”. That’s something of a comfort when coping with the angst that comes with having drafted players who underperform early in the season.

Mike Podhorzer has looked into a number of slow starters in separate columns for hitters and pitchers, and a couple of the subjects from the latter column have been particularly concerning to me. Mike pointed out that Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas are both posting a lower SwStr% so far this season, but what had caught my eye about them was where they were ranking on Baseball Savant’s leaderboard for exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD).
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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