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NL Lineup Analysis (6/27/19)

The Mets and Giants have new-look outfields, and the Diamondbacks must now figure out how to make room for Jake Lamb. These recent lineup changes, along with many others, are detailed just below.

Arizona

Christian Walker’s fantasy owners have probably been a bit nervous in recent weeks, knowing that Lamb’s return from the IL was coming soon. That day arrived on Wednesday, and in fact, it was Walker who was forced out of the lineup to accommodate Lamb at first base. It’s not clear how Torey Lovullo is going to split Lamb’s and Walker’s time at first base, but it is conceivable that Lamb could also play some third base. That would shift Eduardo Escobar to second base, with Jarrod Dyson sitting more often to make way for Ketel Marte in center field.
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Bullpen Report: June 26, 2019

For nearly three months, Jordan Hicks put on a breakout performance in 2019. He became a much more prolific strikeout pitcher and seamlessly moved into the Cardinals’ closer role, locking down 14 of his 15 save opportunities. Now his 2019 campaign is officially over, as he is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday morning. Carlos Martinez is officially the Cardinals’ closer now.

In his 15 innings this season, Martinez has not been especially proficient at getting swings-and-misses (9.8 percent SwStr%) or strikeouts (23.3 percent K%), but he has been masterful at inducing ground balls (61.5 percent rate) and soft airborne contact. Of the 447 pitchers who have allowed at least 40 batted balls this season, only one (Taylor Cole) has yielded a lower average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives than Martinez has (86.0 mph). Given that Martinez has pitched barely more than a month’s worth of innings, as he started his season late due to a shoulder strain, it’s hard to know if he will be better, worse or about the same now that he will serve as a closer. Even with that uncertainty, Martinez is worth adding in just about every league where he is available.
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Bullpen Report: June 24, 2019

Kirby Yates doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this column, because he has literally been automatic. Entering Sunday’s series finale with the Pirates, he had converted all 26 of his save opportunities this season. Only twice had he allowed more than one hit in an appearance, and he had yet to allow more than two hits in an outing.

Yates entered uncharted territory on Sunday, as he did not protect the Padres’ 7-4 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning. His inning began with Elias Diaz reaching as a result of a Manny Machado error, and he subsequently allowed an Adam Frazier double and RBI singles to Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds. Yates would not allow any more hits, but thanks to Starling Marte‘s sacrifice bunt that advanced Newman and Reynolds, Melky Cabrera’s lightly-hit grounder down the first base line was enough to bring Newman home to tie the game. Cabrera was out at first, and then Yates retired Colin Moran to send the game into extra innings.
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NL Lineup Analysis (6/21/19)

How will the Rockies make do with two of their infielders hurt? How are the Marlins using the newest member of their outfield? These questions and many others are answered in this week’s set of National League lineup analyses!

Arizona

Jarrod Dyson sat on Thursday against Jeff Hoffman and the Rockies, and that was only the third time in the last 16 games against a right-handed starter that he was left out of the starting lineup. He has started twice in place of Adam Jones in right field, with all of the other starts coming in center field. That bodes well for Dyson to start all three games against the Giants this weekend, as they are scheduled to go with an all-righty contingent of Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Beede and Shaun Anderson.
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Bullpen Report: June 21, 2019

The showdown between Frankie Montas and Charlie Morton on Thursday night lived up to expectations. Montas dominated the Rays for eight innings, allowing just one run (on a Tommy Pham solo shot), while a Jurickson Profar solo homer was the only run allowed by Morton over 6.1 innings. Emilio Pagan relieved Morton and kept the game knotted at 1-1, giving the Rays’ offense a chance to take the lead against Athletics closer Blake Treinen.

Instead of the game being defined by a matchup of two of the American League’s best starters, it became a story of two struggling closers. Treinen began the top of the ninth inning by walking Pham and Brandon Lowe, and then the Rays pounced with a double steal and back-to-back RBI singles by Avisail Garcia and Ji-Man Choi. That was it for Treinen: four batters, two runs scored, no outs. He was relieved by Ryan Buchter, who let Garcia score on a one-out Willy Adames sacrifice bunt.
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Nothing Is Wrong With Blake Snell

There is no getting around the fact that Blake Snell had a miserable, short outing against the Yankees on Wednesday afternoon. He had little control and wasn’t fooling any of the hitters he faced. I do give Gary Sanchez credit for hitting an outside changeup for an opposite-field home run, and the weak grounder DJ LeMahieu hit for a leadoff single had just a 23 percent chance of becoming a hit (per Baseball Savant). Still, Snell owns the four walks he issued, which is a true feat considering he faced only five other batters besides Sanchez and LeMahieu.

For those who have Snell on their fantasy rosters, the month of June has been a difficult one. He did have a strong outing on June 9 against the Red Sox in Boston (one run allowed in six innings with seven strikeouts), but across his other three starts, the lefty gave up 16 runs (15 earned) in only eight innings.
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Bullpen Report: June 19, 2019

Tuesday night’s slate did not lack for saves, as Kirby Yates (26), Shane Greene (21), Aroldis Chapman (19), Alex Colome (15) and Hansel Robles (11) were among the closers who added to their save totals. In a break from the normal pattern, there just wasn’t much in the way of late-inning relief events that were notable for fantasy owners.

The one head-turning closer development was David Bell’s use of Michael Lorenzen in a save situation for the second night in a row. While it looks like a new pattern is emerging for the Reds, the circumstances of Lorenzen’s two saves were entirely different. In Monday night’s 3-2 win over the Astros, Raisel Iglesias was ostensibly in line for a five-out save, but after walking Myles Straw and popping up Alex Bregman to start off the ninth inning, the Reds’ closer had thrown only 10 strikes in 21 pitches. With tough lefties Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez due up, Bell decided to make a change, going with Lorenzen. While Iglesias had allowed lefties to slug .556 against him, Lorenzen had a more muted .415 SLG allowed versus left-handed hitters. Lorenzen retired both batters for his third save.
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Bullpen Report: June 17, 2019

It has now been 10 days since Wade Davis ended his stay on the IL with an oblique injury, and he has appeared five times for the Rockies since then. Enough time has passed that it’s fair to say that the warning signs that were present for Davis before going on the IL have not gotten any weaker.

In Davis’ three outings before getting shelved, he had given up three runs on five hits and a pair of walks over three innings, and the average velocity on his fastball was 93.3 mph, as compared to 94.1 mph prior to that stretch. Since returning from his injury, Davis has allowed seven runs on nine hits and three walks over 4.1 innings, and his average fastball velocity has dipped a little further to 92.9 mph.
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NL Lineup Analysis (6/14/19)

The Pirates’ outfield situation is not evolving as many envisioned, but could the Padres’ outfield logjam finally be near a resolution? All this and more awaits in this week’s set of lineup analyses.

Arizona

The Diamondbacks did not send Kevin Cron back to the minors after last weekend’s series in Toronto was over, and he has started two of the last five games at first base (including on Friday night at the Nationals). He won’t likely play enough to have fantasy value, but he just might take enough playing time away from Christian Walker to curtail his value. Walker’s role could be further limited when Jake Lamb (quad) returns, which could occur in the next week or two. That would also likely mean the end of regular playing time for Ildemaro Vargas, with Lamb making some starts at third base and Eduardo Escobar moving over to second base.
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Bullpen Report: June 14, 2019

Alex Colome has been perfect in his 14 save opportunities with the White Sox this season, and if not for having thrown 39 pitches against the Nationals on Tuesday, he almost certainly would have had a crack at his 15th save on Thursday against the Yankees. However, with Colome apparently unavailable, Rick Renteria gave us a possible preview of what the bullpen pecking order could look like if (or more likely when) Colome is traded.

The game was tied, 4-4, heading into the top of the seventh inning, and Renteria gave the inning to Evan Marshall. After keeping the Yankees off the board (Marshall is now up to 16.1 innings with a 0.00 ERA), the White Sox grabbed the lead in the bottom of the seventh with a Leury Garcia leadoff home run off Adam Ottavino. Kelvin Herrera took over in the eighth inning and received his sixth hold. Aaron Bummer, who has recently moved into an eighth-inning setup role, came in for the save and allowed nothing more than a Clint Frazier single. The save was the first of Bummer’s career.
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