Aroldis Chapman Looking Great Early

Aroldis Chapman’s start to the season has been very impressive, and the big performance is a follow up to a big spring. He struck out 18 batters while walking just two in spring as a starter, and as a set up man so far this year he has 10 strikeouts and no walks in five innings pitched.

There is certainly value in speculating on Chapman, even though he is unlikely to get saves due to Sean Marshall’s presence. Marshall is a stellar pitcher, so it is doubtful that he struggles enough to lose his closing job to Chapman. Even as a set up man, Chapman could provide very good value throughout this season, especially in holds leagues like ottoneu.

Chapman’s biggest issue over his short Major League career has been his command, and while I still expect that to be at least somewhat of a problem, he should post a much better number than the 7.38 BB/9 mark he netted last season. With a likely increase in innings pitched as long as he stays healthy, the potential for 100 strikeouts is legitimate. He seems to be, at least for now, being used as a multi-inning reliever. This may change over the course of the season, and it is certainly worth monitoring, but if he pitches multi-innings a few times a week and remains healthy then upwards of 70 total innings is possible.

What is extremely impressive about Chapman is his low FIP despite the high walk rate. Again in ottoneu, which is a league where Chapman has excess value compared to standard formats, he becomes an even more valuable pitcher. If he was able to post a 3.29 FIP with a walk rate north of seven per nine, he should be able to record a mark around 2.50 if he is able to better his walk rate significantly while still maintaining an impressive home run allowed rate.

One issue that could arise is the NL Central’s lack of left-handed hitters. Chapman is still very good against right-handed hitters, but it is easy to see why lefties would struggle a bit more against the flamethrower. Over his career, he has a 2.77 FIP against right-handed compared to a 2.23 FIP against lefties. The fact that most of the best hitters in the NL central are right-handed won’t help, but it probably won’t hurt too much either.

Overall, I like Chapman in standard leagues for his strikeouts and rates, but I absolutely love him in ottoneu or in any league that counts holds. Since he may be pitching multi-innings, he also has a decent chance to rack up bigger win totals as well. Pay attention to his walk totals, but look to pick him up or trade for him if you have the means to add on a middle reliever.