Ankiel Inks with K.C.

by
January 22, 2010

Kansas City Royals signed free agent OF Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with a $6 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Ankiel has manned all three outfield spots during his second life as a position player, posting a -9.4 UZR/150 in 1,300+ innings in center field and a +6.7 UZR/150 in 600+ frames in the corners.

The lefty batter transitioned to the batter’s box in 2005, batting .259/.339/.514 in 369 plate appearances split between the Low-A Midwest League and the Double-A Texas League. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2006 season following surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his left knee (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

Ankiel resurfaced at Triple-A Memphis in 2007, batting .267/.314/.568 in 423 plate appearances. He didn’t show much restraint at the dish, drawing a walk just 5.9 percent of the time, but Rick’s Isolated Power was a robust .301. He earned a big league call-up in August, hitting .285/.328/.535 with a 124 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances. Ankiel popped 11 home runs, with a .250 ISO.

Getting regular playing time in 2008, Ankiel again had a 124 wRC+, with a .264/.337/.506 triple-slash in 463 PA. He was a free swinger (30.4 outside-swing percentage, compared to the 25% MLB average). But Ankiel still managed to draw a free pass 9.1 percent, as opposing pitchers threw just 45.4% of their offerings over the plate (49-51% MLB average). His ISO was .242.

While he was never placed on the DL, Ankiel battled shoulder, knee and groin injuries, and he was shut down in early September when he underwent sports hernia surgery (rosters expand in September, hence no DL stint).

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This past year, Ankiel was often dinged up. He crumpled to the ground and had to be carted off the field after a collision with the center field wall on May 4. Ankiel went on the DL with a shoulder injury after the incident, and also dealt with an Achilles tendinitis and a groin strain.

When he did take the field, Ankiel didn’t pack the same punch offensively. In 404 PA, he had a .231/.285/.387 line, with a paltry 75 wRC+. Rick’s ISO dipped to .156, and he expanded his strike zone even further. Ankiel offered at 34.4 percent of pitches tossed out of the zone. Consequently, his walk rate declined to 6.4 percent.

Over the last three years, Ankiel has been five percent better than average with the bat (105 wRC+). Here are his projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: .242/.298/.436, 93 wRC+
Bill James: .253/.310/.453, 100 wRC+
The Fans: .257/.316/.448, 101 wRC+

Personally, I would take the over on these forecasts, expecting something closer to his averages since 2007. Ankiel played last season at less than optimal health, something that the projection systems don’t take into account: they just know he played poorly. Of course, he could suffer through another injury-plagued campaign in K.C. His track record in that regard isn’t exactly pristine.

Ankiel is a good candidate to bounce back next season, assuming health. His aggressive, high-slugging ways are worth a flyer in A.L. only leagues.





 

A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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Adrian
15 years ago

I was very glad to see Duncan get a chance with another team. and also It would be nice to hear the reasons for why you disagree.

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