An Ottonewb Crowdsources

I swore when I started at RotoGraphs that I’d never write any self-serving articles about my fantasy teams. But I also swore that I’d start bringing in lunch to work, that I’d never pay more than $10 for a bottle of beer, or force my child to root for the A’s while growing up in Seattle. Today, I’m having pho for lunch after paying an unpalatable amount yesterday for a merely palatable beer. And this is my one-year old son’s room.

But 2016 marked my first foray into the world of Ottoneu and, as such, this is my first Ottoneu off-season. Admittedly, a little intimated after a decade of playing only roto and head-to-head leagues on the standard sites, a few friends of mine took the plunge and created an Ottoneu 4×4 league. I can’t really tell you why we decided to go roto instead of the full FanGraphs points experience but it doesn’t really matter. I’m hooked. So, when the opportunity came to adopt a second team, this time in the FanGraphs Staff Two league, I jumped at it. And I’ve got some work to do.

I took over a team that finished 8^th last season, after finishing 7^th in 2015, 6^th in 2014, 4^th in 2013… You get the idea. Thankfully, Justin Vibber’s Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, an indescribably useful tool especially if you’re new to the format, elucidates some of the bright spots on my roster using early 2017 Steamer600 projections. If you don’t like Steamer600 you can import your preferred values quite easily. In all my years of playing keeper leagues, I’ve never once had to undergo a complete rebuild and while I’m still not totally convinced that this is the year, it’s clear that I don’t have much margin for error given my lack of depth and near total prospect paucity. But I’m eager to hear your thoughts in the comments section.

So without further ado, I’d like to bring up a few names from my roster below in the hopes of crowdsourcing the opinions of our insightful RotoGraphs readership. Don’t feel as if you have to limit your comments to the Ottoneu format or my team. I’m just using them in the hopes to generating some discussion that might be useful for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty formats. So let’s get to it!

 

Infielders

One of Ottoneu’s most vocal champions, Trey Baugn, declared Yangervis Solarte his “favorite sleeper of 2016” in his 10 Bold Predictions piece. Sure enough, Solarte delivered. After missing a month early in the season rehabbing a hamstring, the Padres’ third baseman built upon a strong finish to his sophomore campaign, turning in a final slash line of .286/.341/.467 over 440 plate appearances. His production, prorated over a full season, translates to 20 homers, 74 runs, and 96 RBI. He posted a career best hard-hit percentage while hitting fewer ground balls and more line drives. On the downside, a newfound aggressiveness at the plate, led Solarte to chase more frequently and make less contact in the zone. By the end of the season, his elite swinging strike rate gave way to one that’s merely above average.

Though no longer the same patient hitter we saw debut with the Yankees in 2014, I’ll take the chance on the improvements Solarte made to his batted ball profile. And despite the league-wide increase in power, his second-base eligibility makes him well-worth the $3 investment.

In 2011, Asdrubal Cabrera’s 25 home runs ranked third among shortstops. Five years later, his 23 home runs are good enough for just seventh, making his once-unique power as yawn-inducing as a vodka-Benadryl. However, Cabrera still does some things well. He’s pulling more fly balls than he has in years while also hitting them further. And though his ground balls ticked up slightly, he still doesn’t hit many. But with homers on the rise and shortstop quickly developing into one of the deepest positions in baseball, is there any significant upside to keeping a 31-year old shortstop playing in one of the tougher hitter’s parks in the league? A couple seasons ago I’d think it unimaginable to cut loose a shortstop with a strong batting average and 20 homer potential but I’m leaning that way now. My lack of depth at short is the only reason I’m really waffling here.

A few weeks ago, I wrote up Wil Myers, specifically calling out the difficulty in valuing him entering 2017. Most see his 28 steals as an unrepeatable feat though I’m perhaps more incredulous over his ability to stay healthy. Surprisingly, Steamer sees some regression coming his way in power with only a slight dip in his aggressiveness on the base paths. If Steamer is right to question his power output next season, Myers loses a ton of his trade value given that most are already skeptical about his speed, making the decision to keep or trade him a critical one.

Outfielders

There’s no getting around it. This outfield needs work. After Mookie, it’s just a lot of question marks. If I end up keeping a deficit-value Freddie Freeman, I can slide Myers over to the outfield but I’m still looking at a serious dearth of quality options for the next three spots.

After an impressive display of newfound patience in 2015, Khris Davis regressed back into swing-at-everything mode. Not that it didn’t work – he became the first Athletic since Frank Thomas to hit 40 homers. Juiced balls or not, hitting in Oakland is difficult. But his 16.6% swinging strike rate and all-or-nothing approach make for a wild ride with some seriously subterranean slumps.

I’ll see where Matt Holliday lands but barring a move to a hitter-friendly stadium in the AL, that $20 valuation seems dubiously high even in the unlikely event he actually does log 600 plate appearances. He’s probably a goner.

Pitching

Despite striking out batters a career high clip and walking just 1.75 per nine, Wei-Yin Chen just suffered through the worst year of his career. It looks like he may have had some bad LOB% luck but hitters very clearly squared him up.

Yet, Steamer likes him and since he’s reasonably cheap, there appears to be little risk here. This may require a deeper dive. Hooray for thinking about Wei-Yin Chen.

The first move I made, even before changing my team name, was to pick up a recently cut Anthony Desclafani. Even after what some might call a breakout season, Disco is not without his flaws. Corinne Landry wrote a very thorough and insightful piece on him in September, suggesting we might benefit from a bit of a skepticism. Still, I’m pleased he didn’t draw any arbitration allocation. He’s an easy keeper for me at $5 no matter what Steamer says.

At some point in 2016, Marcus Stroman decided he didn’t like getting lit up anymore. So he changed his pitch mix a bit, opting to throw his best pitch more and his others less. How’d that work out?

Stroman did some other things well too like maintaining his elite ground ball tendencies, a paramount skill if pitching in Toronto. At $10, he’s one of my favorite players on this roster even if the projections see just a $1.50 in surplus value.

Well, that about does it. If you have thoughts on other players, feel free to leave them in the comments. And if you’ve never played Ottoneu and are unfamiliar with what makes it such a uniquely compelling format, I encourage you to peruse through some of the fantastic Ottoneu articles written by Trey, Justin, and Joe here.