American League Outfielders: One-Year Splits

In my younger (read: teenage angst years), one of my favorite up-and-coming bands was a little known group out of Reno, Nevada called This Calendar Year. While the band never gained much notoriety, despite a couple solid tracks (warning: they’re a bit loud), the name always stuck with me. Today for the American League outfield beat, we’ll be looking at two names that could surprise you with their strong numbers since this time last year (minimum 450 plate appearances).

Josh Reddick: .297/.350/.503 in 487 PAs
Hitting nearly .300 even with a pedestrian .298 BABIP over the past year is an impressive feat, though it should be noted even that modest BABIP is 20 points above Reddick’s career average. What is most encouraging is his refined plate discipline. As one may expect given his status as an Oakland Athletic, Reddick has always had a decent batting eye as he owns an 8 percent walk rate in the majors. His strikeout rate has never been too refined, and his 18.7 percent strikeout rates as league average. Since June of last year however, Reddick has cut his K-rate almost in half, down to 9.9 percent. For comparison, the table below displays his plate discipline stats, broken down by the past year versus his career.

	Swing%	O-Swing%	Contact%	Z-Contact%	Swinging Strike%
Career	47.7%	30.1%	81.9%	87.6%	8.5%
One Year	44.9%	28.7%	86.1%	92.3%	6.2%

Fewer overall swings, fewer whiffs and more overall contact. Hard to complain about anything there. Reddick still has a hard time facing southpaws, so if you’re aiming to trade for him or use him in DFS, make sure to check the opposing pitcher. Still, he’s shown 20+ home run power with strong walk and strikeout rates for nearly a full season now. Despite a .333 BABIP against right-handers this year inflating his numbers, a .151 BABIP versus lefties has dragged him down more than usual. For me, those numbers are basically a push. I’ve attempted to trade for him in several leagues as I’m buying his plate discipline, love his power and he’s been hitting third, fourth or at worst fifth for the past three weeks.

Brett Gardner: .258/.331/.459 in 612 PAs
Gardner is the only 20-20 player in the AL outfield since June 24 of last season. In recent months he’s hit for more power at a higher than I expected and set a personal high of 17 dingers last season with nine already in the bank this year. The homers have come hand in hand with an uptick in his strikeout rate as he’s fanned in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances in the past 12 months compared to a 18.7 percent career rate. I’d say I’m willing to sacrifice an extra strikeout or two per week to hit more home runs, but given Gardner’s 20.7 percent strikeout rate since 2012, it’s hard to complain at all. He hasn’t sacrificed plate discipline in exchange for power, but it is worth noting we’ve seen an increase across the board in many of his swing rates.

	Swing%	O-Swing%	Contact%	Z-Contact%	Swinging Strike%
Career	35.9%	22.6%	88.0%	93.8%	4.3%
One Year	38.1%	25.2%	85.9%	92.1%	5.3%

If the cost of a 20-20 season is a handful more strikeouts, I’m more than happy to make that exchange for Gardner’s game. He’s been hitting leadoff with Jacoby Ellsbury on the shelf, and I anticipate him moving back to the number two spot upon Ellsbury’s return. Hitting near the top of a lineup is always a good thing to boost the runs scored numbers, and his 53 runs put him on pace to break the 100 mark for the first time in a season. Similar to Reddick, Gardner does his best work against opposite-handed hitters, but unlike Reddick, Gardner doesn’t look lost at the plate against southpaws. I’ve been riding Gardner’s hot hitting in DFS this year and was considering selling high on him in several of my traditional fantasy leagues. After a closer look at him today, I’ll be hanging on to him.