AL Outfield: The Good, the Bad, the Weird
Last week I posted the AL OF tiered rankings for May and used my favorite films from 2014 as tier labels. In the comments section I briefly discuses with one reader, The Theory, about my enjoyment seeing fellow South Koreans get their shot in Hollywood. I suggest seeing The Good, the Bad, the Weird — currently available on Netflix — as I really enjoyed it.
The Good: Jake Marisnick
Part of Marisnick’s success in the opening five weeks of the season is his .377 BABIP. The conversation doesn’t end there however, as he’s shown significant improvement in other offensive areas. The table below displays his new found plate discipline, though it should be noted while K% stabilizes around 60 plate appearances, BB% tends to normalize around the 120 PA threshold. Take Marisnick’s numbers from 2013-14 with a grain of salt, as he accrued more minor league than major league PAs in both seasons.
| BB% | K% | O-Swing% | SwStr% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 3.9% | 26.5% | 37% | 11.4% |
| 2015 | 6.1% | 13.4% | 31.8% | 9.6% |
He’s chasing pitches out of the zone less frequently while also swinging and missing less. Add in his nine steals versus being caught one time, and the fact he’s already match his home run output from last year and you have yourself a solid player. Hopefully you grabbed him in the draft or off the waiver-wire early on as he is already owned in most leagues, though he is still useful in DFS. Traditional fantasy owners have the option to sell high on him — his .351 AVG certainly won’t last — but I plan on holding onto Marisnick as I’m drinking the kool-aid on his plate discipline.
The Bad: Matt Joyce
Normally known for his ability to thump right-handers, Joyce has gotten off to a slow start against them this season. For the sake of clarity, all of Joyce’s numbers written here are against righties only. Currently sporting a .143/.193/.178 line, Joyce has been dropped to sixth or seventh in the lineup after opening the season batting cleanup. The baseball gods have cursed him with a .172 BABIP thus far, however Joyce hasn’t done himself any favors by rarely hitting the ball on the screws as his 18.6 percent hard contact rate ranks 183rd of 200 qualified hitters. This is speculative, but Joyce may be pressing at the plate out of frustration as his normally excellent walk rate is down. His 12.2 percent career walk rate has been cut in half to 6 percent. It’s still early and Joyce has the potential as well as the playing time to bounce back, but he has been brutal across the board in the opening weeks.
The weird: Paulo Orlando
A speedster, Orlando already has five triples on the year against four walks. It’s a rare feat to finish a qualified season with more triples than walks, but it has happened twice, and both times it was Garry Templeton. He first accomplished the bit of trivia in 1977 with 18 triples against 15 BB’s in 644 PAs and then did it again in 1979 with 19 and 18. That Orlando could join a club with one member for something that has happened on two occasions since 1920 is awesome. And weird. Just like baseball.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Sentence that needs to be added to Jake Marisnick section:
“Hopefully you didn’t drop him from your prospect list for nothing in a keeper league.”
I’m happy with my prospect outfield of Poloanco, Pederson and Soler, but yeah, wish I would have called him up.
Kept him for years, dropped him heading into this year because I didn’t want to use the roster space on him. 🙁
Granted, I have Avisail, Oswaldo, Pederson, Souza, and Rusney Castillo, so I had other “better” options, but it still hurts.
The new posts on rotographs are not showing on the homepage of this address: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/
Thought you should know, love your work!
That has been happening on the main Fangraphs page as well.
Passed it up the chain to the Dark Overlord.
And thanks for the kind words!
I believe in Marisnick too, I just wished I had plucked him from the start. I have him now though, thrilled with what he’s done. I think he can go: .275/.321/.418 with 11 HR, 35 SB the rest of the way.
Great movie
plate disincline?
so you’re saying he remains relatively vertical while at bat?
Oh man, yeah, The Good, The Bad, The Weird is pretty grand.
Sticking with that director, A Tale of Two Sisters! I don’t watch many horror films that leave me seeing scary things in the shadows, but this one did it.
Horror isn’t *really* my thing, but I may give it a shot!
David: I don’t know how you retrieved your information about more triples than walks in a qualified season but the baseball-reference Play Index shows 19 such seasons. All but Templeton’s occurred before 1923.
The last few sentences of the article kinda points that out:
“That Orlando could join a club with one member for something that has happened on two occasions since 1920 is awesome. And weird. Just like baseball.”
I suppose I could have worded that differently, but yeah, live ball era only.
Sorry about that David, I read too quickly. But there was a guy named Bert Griffith who had 8 triples and 5 walks in 1922. The qualifying rules were different then, his 106 games were sufficient.
One of my news feeds said Joyce fouled a ball off his foot on April 15. Through that day, he was at 233/281/333 in 30 AB. Since (though 5/7/15) he is 109/153/182 in 55 AB. So maybe an injury?