AL Closer Report: May 7th

Strong Performers

Mariano Rivera |Yankees

With Mo experiencing some soreness in his left side, Joba Chamberlain got the chance to pick up a couple saves. Rivera’s injury isn’t considered serious, though, and the ageless wonder has a 9/2 K/BB and a 3.60 xFIP in nine innings pitched. Joba, meanwhile, has 9.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 3.27 xFIP in 12.1 IP. His curve and changeup have essentially been scrapped out of the ‘pen, as Chamberlain has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball 65 percent and his 86 MPH slider 30 percent.

Joakim Soria |Royals

Soria was smacked around for 2 HR by the Rangers yesterday, but he has still been filthy overall. In 12 IP, The Mexicutioner has 15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 1.86 xFIP. His outside swing rate (35%) is a career high, as is his 14.5 swinging strike rate. He’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Andrew Bailey |Athletics

The yet-to-be-scored-upon Bailey has a 3.64 xFIP on the year, with 5.06 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 10.2 innings. The low K rate appears to be the product of Bailey placing the ball over the plate so often: his Zone% is 57.8 (48.2 big league average), and hitters have made contact with 87.7 percent of those in-zone offerings (Bailey’s Z-Contact was in the mid-seventies in 2009).

Rafael Soriano |Rays

The new Tampa closer is off to an OK start, with 8.25 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 4.20 xFIP. Curiously, Soriano’s swinging strike rate, 12.2% for his career, is just 7.5% in 2010. His contact rate is up nearly 10 percentage points as well. It’s just 12 innings, but it’s some worth monitoring.

Jonathan Papelbon |Red Sox

After posting a career-worst 3.98 xFIP in 2009, Papelbon is off to a poor start in 2010. In 15 frames, the part-time river dancer has 6.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. A .204 BABIP has obscured the tepid start (his ERA is 1.80). Why the lack of K’s? Papelbon’s whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has declined from 10.4% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010, per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool. That ’09 mark, in turn, was a decline from his 12.2% whiff rate in 2008.

Steady Performers

Neftali Feliz/Frank Francisco | Rangers

Feliz is still getting most save ops for Texas, though Francisco is in the mix as well. The 22-year-old Feliz has been fantastic thus far, with 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP. Averaging 96-97 MPH with his heater and mixing in high-70’s curves and high-80’s changeups, Feliz has a 14.4% swinging strike rate. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters: his zone% is 57.1%, about 9 percentage points above the big league average. About the only concern here is the very low ground ball rate (24.3).

Francisco, coming off of a 2009 in which he posted a 3.53 xFIP, has dished out plenty of free passes. In 12.1 IP, he has issued 5.84 BB/9. Hitters haven’t chased his stuff out of the zone: Francisco’s outside swing rate is just 16.1 percent in 2010. With fewer K’s than usual (8.03 K/9), his xFIP is 5.24.

David Aardsma |Mariners

Despite a rise in ERA from 2.52 in 2009 to 3.38 this season, Aardsma actually has a lower xFIP in 2010 (3.62, compared to 4.12 in ’09). He had a very low 4.2 home run per fly ball rate last year, but that has risen to 15.4% so far this year. Prior to reaching the M’s, Aardsma’s control came and went. But he showed signs of improvement last year and currently has a career-best 3.38 BB/9, with a healthy 65.8 first pitch strike percentage.

Bobby Jenks |White Sox

Jenks has had a strange season, as he has posted 12.27 K/9 while getting swinging strikes a mild 8.8 percent. His control hasn’t been as sharp as usual (4.91 BB/9, 45.8 Zone%), but he has yet to serve up a homer after having poor luck on fly balls last year (17 HR/FB%). Instead, Jenks has been plagued by a .428 BABIP this year, which explains the ERA (4.09)/xFIP (2.36) split. What does that all mean? Not much, probably. He’ll likely settle in as a mid-to-high-three’s xFIP pitcher.

Jose Valverde |Tigers

Valverde has experienced a bizarre beginning in Detroit. Traditionally, Papa Grande misses lots of bats (career 10.75 K/9) and gets few grounders (38.4 GB%). With the Tigers, Valverde has 4.26 K/9 and a 71.4% rate of worm burners in 12.2 innings. His swinging strike rate, 13.1% in 2009, is 5.6% in 2010. Valverde’s outside swing rate has been cut in half (32% in ’09, 15.7% in ’10). In terms of pitch selection, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he’s going to a mid-80’s splitter far more often. Pitch F/X data, meanwhile, says he has thrown nothing but fastballs (that seems fishy). What’s going on here, Tigers fans?

Kevin Gregg |Blue Jays

The free agent signee has taken a firm grip on Toronto’s closer gig, whiffing 11.57 batters per nine frames, walking 1.29 and inducing ground balls at a 60 percent clip in 14 innings of work. Gregg’s contact rate is a career-low 71.8 percent, and his outside swing rate is a career-best 31.4. In the past, he used a low-90’s fastball 60-65% of the time. With the Jays, Gregg has gone to an 87-88 MPH cutter over a quarter of the time. The 31-year-old won’t keep up the 1.82 xFIP pace. But his strong performance, backed by a change in approach, bodes well for his future.

Jon Rauch |Twins

Though he won’t be confused with a relief ace, Rauch has done an OK job filling in for Joe Nathan with 6.75 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP in 12 innings. As has usually been the case, Rauch is pounding the zone: 52.2 percent of his pitches have been over the plate, and his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6.

Fallen on Hard Times

Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney |Angels

Fuentes, who served a DL stint in April with a strained back suffered while weight lifting, didn’t flex his muscles on the mound last year (4.94 xFIP). In 5.2 IP in 2010, he has a 7/3 K/BB. Speaking of overpaid relievers (cue Homer: “Mmmmm…saaaaves), Fernando Rodney has a shiny ERA (2.63) but a mediocre 4.35 xFIP, with 6.59 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9. Unless there are eight Al’s behind him when he pitches, Rodney’s not keeping the .123 BABIP.

Chris Perez |Indians

The former Cards prospect turned in a promising 2009 season (10.75 K/9 and a 3.98 xFIP), but Perez has been putrid while filling in for Kerry Wood. In 9.1 IP, he has 4.82 K/9, 5.79 BB/9 and a 5.99 xFIP. The control issues aren’t surprising, given his career 4.58 BB/9 in the majors and 6 BB/9 in the minors, but the lack of whiffs is disconcerting. Perez’s swinging strike rate, 9.4% in ’09, is just 4.4%. Wood (4.11 xFIP in 2009) didn’t lock games down last year and his rehab outings haven’t been sharp, but he’s nearing a return from a back injury.

Alfredo Simon |Orioles

With Mike Gonzalez (shoulder) on the shelf and Jim Johnson in Norfolk, the 29-year-old (tomorrow) Simon is getting the chance to close out games. A 6-4, 230 pound righty who previously passed through the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Texas organizations (mostly as a starter), Simon missed nearly all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery. Despite blistering fastball velocity and a hard splitter, Simon has never missed a ton of bats (6.9 K/9 in the minors). He did, however, begin the 2010 season with a 14/5 K/BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.