Again in Lieu of “The Sleeper and the Bust”

I said that it wouldn’t happen again. I was wrong. I’m terribly sorry. Terribly, terribly sorry.

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” will not go live in this post. Eno Sarris and I talked about streamers for the weekend as well as potential keepers you might decide to drop for streamers or to meet other types of needs in the season’s final week and a half. Unfortunately, I had an issue with the recording. This post will give you the gist of the content we covered in what would have been Episode 168.

Streamers

We picked pitchers who appear to be owned in less than 50% of fantasy baseball leagues. Most are for leagues on the shallower side, but we give some deep-league options, and some of them cross over. We don’t always agree, which is why you get so many options each day.

Friday, Sept. 19

Trevor Bauer at MIN | Eno sees this as the highest-upside play of the day. Such good stuff and an attractive opponent in a friendly park. Have to agree, although Bauer’s inconsistency worries me enough that I consider the next choice a better one.

Jeff Locke vs. MIL | The lefty has a good changeup and has already neutralized this largely RH lineup a couple of times this season. He’s at home, too. My preference.

Kevin Gausman vs. BOS | We both kind of like him. It’s a good-looking matchup. Gausman doesn’t offer much K upside, so it tempers our enthusiasm.

Tom Koehler vs. WSH | I threw this one in at the last second. I like him a little. He’s at home, some potential for the post-clinching hangover. Eno pans Koehler, but he did wonder if he’d have to take a look back at the RHP’s year to see where he’s evolved.

Taijuan Walker at HOU | Great talent, high K potential. Among concerns is that he’s been pitching out of the bullpen, so how deep will he go? More upside than the two above him.

Odrisamer Despaigne vs. SF | The funky RHP with all the arm slots is at home. This matchup worries me more than it does Eno.

David Buchanan at OAK | I prefer him to Despaigne. Eno likes Buchanan’s changeup but points out that there’s clearly more upside with the Friar than there is with the Phillie. True.

Allen Webster at BAL | I can’t rec him in good conscience. He has a great pitch mix that he rarely commands. Eno presents the scenario: If you have nothing to lose and are looking for a ton of upside, then Webster might be your guy.

Saturday, Sept. 20

Yusmeiro Petit at SD | Our consensus pick, easily.

T.J. House at MIN | We both like House, too. Eno puts him above almost every other option for this day. I fear that the rec is overly bold, but, other than, say, an obvious Edinson Volquez, it’s hard to disagree: The lefty looks like a nice streamer.

Jarred Cosart vs. WSH | More potential for a hangover game from the Nats. More so, I like Cosart and his sort of crazy stuff. Eno doesn’t see that he does anything differently since he moved to Miami, so he’s not on board.

Jon Niese at ATL | I don’t care for this one at all. The Bravos have hit LH pitching much better than they have RH pitching all year. Niese’s stuff doesn’t impress Eno, but the pundit sees this matchup, with great potential for K’s versus a struggling squad, as a plus one for the pitcher.

Jerome Williams at OAK | Eno laughs. I can’t explain Williams’ occasional success, but I’ll take him against a floundering A’s team that he’s baffled before. I’ll take him before Niese.

Rubby de la Rosa at BAL | I don’t think either of us is particularly jazzed about this one. He might be higher in the ranks based on when he came up, but neither of us ever gives him a hearty endorsement. He’s struggling with control and not getting deep into games.

Sunday, Sept. 21

Drew Hutchison at NYY | Eno doesn’t initially like Hutchison at Yankee Stadium. I argue for the way he’s been striking out guys lately and park-independent successes and failures. Definitely the most upside on a day that Eno notes doesn’t have many interesting options otherwise.

Wily Peralta at PIT | Peralta’s occasional blow-ups turn me off, but Eno likes the matchup against an offense that doesn’t knock his socks off. The Bucs’ recent performance concerns me, mostly.

A.J. Burnett at OAK | I defaulted to this pick as the most interesting of the day initially. Eno pointed out the errors in my ways. The control is so undependable. There’s some danger in assuming that the A’s offense will remain dormant through end of season, too.

Nathan Eovaldi vs. WSH | Eno wonders if Eovaldi isn’t also a beneficiary of the D.C. hangover. Velocity works more often in the NL.

Alfredo Simon at STL | The Cardinals rarely blow the doors off anyone. After a rough August, Simon seems to be past some fatigue that could be a byproduct of his time spent as a reliever prior to this season.

Ryan Vogelsong at SD | Low upside, high floor. The latter is what the Padres provide. Maybe. Eno points out that Petco Park can play differently during the day, when it’s hot. Good point. I feel less good about this one.

Cory Rasmus vs. TEX | The Halos have just been using the whiffy Rasmus to get them through the rest of the regular season. The reliever pitched four shutout innings in his most recent start, against Seattle. For those who aren’t chasing a W and just want to pad the K’s without hurting their bottom line, he’s an attractive choice. Texas has suddenly shown signs of life, though.

Droppable Keepers

We basically try to distinguish, among players who aren’t helping right now, whether they’re keepers in keep-5, keep-10 or keep-15 mixed leagues of 15 teams, or AL-only leagues.

C | I was wary of the power of Matt Wieters (Tommy John surgery) returning right away, but Eno says that he and Jeff Z’s research suggests that we shouldn’t expect it to suffer. A .260-20 projection looks appropriate. He’s probably OK in keep-10 setups, but he’s a difficult case.

1B | We have quite a debate about Joey Votto, Chris Davis, and Prince Fielder. Eno initially views Votto as a firmer keeper than Davis, but I may change his mind. Votto is a definite keep-5 guy in an OBP league, but not otherwise, to me. Davis is firmly my pick, regardless of results this season, because of the 35-HR upside and the RBI likely to come with it. A .240 AVG is reasonable rebound territory, I think. Eno figures that if Davis is a top-200, 250 player with a .196 AVG, he’s not so bad. Fielder is the mystery, even though he seems to be ahead of Votto in terms of health, because he trails in terms of body type and thus how he may age. All three are potential keep-5 guys.

2B | Eno says Brett Lawrie is a keep-10 guy. I wasn’t sure at first, but given that the Jays’ second baseman is just 25 next year and his decent power, plus the lack of explanation for no stolen base attempts this year, I’m convinced.

3B | David Wright is a keep-5 guy, we’re sure. Eno notes that Wright has shown us he’s a legit rebound candidate. He sees a .280-18 projection, with 10 stolen bases. I’d definitely keep Wright before Votto. The others, I’m not sure. Manny Machado is tough to trust as a keep-10, we think. Ryan Zimmerman doesn’t interest us as a keeper at all, but we didn’t actually dismiss NL or, I think, keep-15.

SS | When Eno asks for my rough projection for Jean Segura, I say .260-5 with 25, maybe 30 stolen bases. Eno says he’s a keep-10, and after I realize what that projection says, I have to agree. Eno notes that you’re probably a leg up if Segura is your MI in a mixed league. There’s still a lot of talent there.

OF | Eno isn’t sure that Oscar Taveras is a keep-15 guy, despite what I consider his optimistic projection (.270-18). I like a little less power there, but I think he’s a keeper. Eno says that sounds like an unexciting third outfielder. Then we examine outfielders, season-to-date, and the Taveras projection isn’t far off that. I say I keep him because he can help me some next year and, presumably, more after that. I think Shin-Soo Choo is a keep-5 guy. Eno isn’t sure about the overall production. I chalk up Choo’s 2014 campaign to the bum ankle and would keep him before Votto. Choo gives me roughly the same AVG or OBP and HR, plus more SB. Votto doesn’t drive in runs, and Choo hits near the top of what should be a reinvigorated Texas lineup. Eno acknowledges that there’s value in the volume of Choo’s role.

SP | We don’t view any questionable pitcher as a keep-5 player. Eno sees Justin Verlander as a probably keep-15 one. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Matt Cain, and Carlos Martinez aren’t keep-10 pitchers, the latter two not even keep-15, likely. Eno waxes on Martinez as an interesting case, though, with great points. He’s a pitch away, with long-term upside. He goes into next year without a rotation spot, surely. Just don’t drop Martinez for a lame streamer, because he could eventually – not next year, but eventually – be Garrett Richards. Masahiro Tanaka might be a keep-10. I suggest that the inherent risk might make him a better throwback and target for that level. Eno says he likes the idea of Tanaka as a high-upside early pick if he’s thrown back in that format, with two pitchers already in tow. We both believe in Richards and think that he’s a keep-10 pitcher.