Affeldt Breaks Out

Don’t look now, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may very well be enjoying the best offseason of any GM, non-Yankees division. In addition to bringing still-nasty Randy Johnson into the fold for what figures to be a below-market deal, Sabean has added a potentially useful middle man in Bob Howry, a cheap power bat in Josh Phelps and a shortstop in Edgar Renteria who will at least abate those Brian Bocock-induced nightmares. But Sabean kicked off his solid winter by snagging southpaw Jeremy Affeldt to a shrewd two-year, $8 million deal.

A lefty who cooks with gas, Affeldt was nonetheless a perennial disappointment in Kansas City, throwing hard but indiscriminate pitches that often resulted in a free pass for the batter (that role is now dutifully filled by Kyle Farnsworth, who must have some embarrassing photos of Dayton Moore or something; how else does a replacement-level reliever snag two years and $9.25 mil? Farnsy might be able to outslug Affeldt, but outpitching him seems pretty unlikely. But I digress.)

After a solid 2003 campaign with K.C. (3.74 FIP in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances), Affeldt tossed 76.1 frames and a 4.16 FIP in 2004, again splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen while battling a rib cage injury. He followed that up with a 2005 campaign in which he hit the DL with a groin strain on two separate occasions. After a disastrous ’06 season where he was traded to Colorado mid-season (97.1 IP, 5.65 FIP), he turned in a decent 2007 season with the Rockies, posting a 4.17 FIP in 59 innings. His control still left much to be desired, however (5.03 BB/9).

The 6-4, 225 pounder inked a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Reds last offseason. Upon reaching Cincy, Affeldt appeared to transform into a different type of pitcher. In 78.1 innings, he posted a career-best 3.66 FIP, generating nearly two ground balls for every flyball hit. One might that that Affeldt’s ’08 season was just a flash in the pan, the sort of thing that occasionally happens with relievers in a relatively small sample of innings. And perhaps that’s true. But, there are several reasons to believe that this new-and-improved Affeldt is here to stay.

Nothing in Affeldt’s stat sheet suggests that his performance in Cincy was a fluke. He upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 9.19 batters per nine innings, over two K’s per nine more than 2007. Most importantly, he shaved his walk rate by a significant margin, issuing 2.87 BB/9.

Not surprisingly, Affeldt increased his first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%). Batters found themselves behind 0-and-1 or put the ball in play 57.9% of the time in 2008, up from 55.7% in ’07 and just 49.3% in ’06. If anything, Affeldt was actually unlucky in 2008. His BABIP was .329 behind a leaky Cincinnati defense (29th in team Defense Efficiency), and his home run/flyball rate of 15% about 3-4% above the typical rate for pitchers. Using XFIP to normalize that HR/FB rate, Affeldt’s ERA drops to 3.40. For comparison, Francisco Rodriguez’s XFIP was 3.71 in 2008.

So, how did Affeldt turn his career around? The 29 year-old found an additional 2 MPH on his fastball, throwing his heater at an average velocity of 94.6 MPH (92.3 MPH in ’07). Also, his big-breaking, high-70’s curve showed a lot more bite this past season. Let’s take a look at Affeldt’s pitch f/x data from Josh Kalk’s blog:

2007

Fastball: 5.46 X, 10.05 Z
Curveball: -3.08 X, -1.25 Z
Changeup: 3.46 X, 8.29 Z

2008

Fastball: 5.87 X, 8.68 Z
Curveball: -4.87 X, -5.57 Z
Changeup: 6.48 X, 7.08 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Look at the difference in depth between his ’07 curve and the nasty hammer he threw in 2008- his ’08 curve dropped over four inches more in the zone than it did the previous year. With a hopping heater and a sinister hook, Affeldt lowered his Contact% to 73.5% (down from 81.2% in ’07, ranking between Grant Balfour and Hong Chih Kuo) and baited batters into fishing for a pitch outside of the strike zone 26% of the time (22.6% in ’07).

As of right now, Affeldt is penciled in to be either the 7th or 8th-inning guy in San Francisco, but it’s possible that he rises from that position at some point. Current closer Brian Wilson also misses plenty of bats, but he’s not infallible, as his career 4.34 BB/9 suggests. If Wilson experiences some rough moments, Affeldt has the goods to close the door and pick up some saves along the way.