ADP Values in Center Field (Part 1?)
This was supposed to be a look at the ADP values in the tiers I created during my Check the Position series, but two pairs of players in the second center field tier caught my eye. These players lie right on fantasy fault lines: they are within a couple picks of each other, yet it seems that their value is disparate. I think you’ll be able to tell who I fancy (as the Brits say).
First up are two borderline second-rounders (though a bit less borderline if your league breaks out the outfield into three positions). Jacoby Ellsbury (20.36 ADP) goes earliest, and many fantasy managers may scoff at the number if they are accustomed to playing with plain “OF” positions, and they could be right. He is projected to retain his game-changing speed and put up a steals number north of 50. To put that in perspective, only three players crossed that threshold last year, and only one other player is projected to do so in most projection systems next year (Michael Bourn). There’s a good chance that Ellsbury finally nets triple-digit runs too, provided he remains atop the order and the Boston offense doesn’t take a step back with their renewed emphasis on defense. So Ellsbury will have some good qualities.
But what about Grady Sizemore (26.52 ADP), who is being picked almost a half-round later? If you were in the right draft spot, you could actually avoid Ellsbury and take Sizemore after the turn in the third round. I did it recently, and felt great about it. It’s not like Sizemore won’t steal any bases – although the amount is in question. He put up a career-low 6.0 speed score last year (5.0 is average) and the projections range from 20 steals to the Fans’ more optimistic 29 steals. He’s still young (27), and here’s a bet that he’ll touch the higher end of the steals projections. The power is no question – he should out-homer Ellsbury by at least a dozen home runs, and as many as 20. For whatever reason, his batting average won’t be as nice, either.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Not saying I would take Hamilton over Granderson, but unless Yankee Stadium really inflates his numbers I don’t think he will touch 30 HR again. For me it is always a red flag when a player hits more homeruns than doubles and has no history of doing so. Unless that player is Ryan Howard, that is probably a sign of a homerun total that will drop off a good bit. Chris Young 2007 is a good example…he hit 32 homeruns and 29 doubles, and it’s no surprise that he didn’t maintain that in 2008. T
That was one year though. For his career he has many more doubles than HR…so based on one season you’ll write him off?
I’m ready to drink the Kool-aid for his 2010. I don’t think he’ll match Soriano’s steals, but something close to his 02/03 NYY production seems attainable. 35/90/115/18 will do just fine. Could he approach Soriano’s 128 runs in 2002? Few teams, if any, offer that sort of potential.
Seriously, how much does his team help??? How often will they knock the starter out early? How many more at bats will he get? And with runners in scoring position?
I’m just too intrigued to let him pass me by in the 4th (I’m 7 of 12). 😉
I think RM’s point was that Granderson was very unlikely to keep hitting more home runs than doubles when he has never shown a propensity to do that before. And as RM pointed out, most players don’t do that, especially not of Granderson’s build and skill-set.
So if you expect Granderson to hit 35 home runs next year, you’re either expecting him to continue hitting more homers than doubles (not likely) or you expect him to hit 40+ doubles (even less likely).
Plus, Granderson’s passable work against lefties in 2008 now looks like a fluke rather than any real development.