A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing?

The 33-year-old Randy Wolf is allegedly drawing a lot of interest on the free agent market. The southpaw had a solid season in ’09 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 3.23 ERA (3.96 FIP) but threw 200+ innings for just the first time since 2003, so his durability is in question and teams looking to sign him to a three- or four-year deal could be disappointed. Luckily, most fantasy managers will be making just a one-year commitment to Wolf.

He showed solid control in ’09 with a walk rate of just 2.44 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is definitely not at the elite level at 6.72 K/9. His contact rate was also about 4% above league average in ’09, so that should be monitored heading into 2010.

Wolf was basically a fastball-curveball pitcher in ’09, in terms of quality pitches. His fastball was as good as it’s been since ’03 with a rate of 29.3 wFB (showing velocity is definitely not everything), and his curveball was snapping at an all-time best rate of 8.8 wCB. Wolf will likely need to find a little more success from his slider or change-up if he’s going to continue to dominate hitters three or four times through the order – especially if he mistakenly makes his way to the American League.

It’s safe to say, though, that any pitcher that is coming off of a 200 IP season is someone to consider, especially considering that he’s improved each year that he’s distanced himself from his surgery. Keep in mind: Over the past three seasons, Wolf has pitched in a pitcher’s park for all but half a season (for Houston) during that span. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher.

Wolf’s 3.0 WAR suggests that he was worth about $13.6 million to the Dodgers in ’09, which was far more than the $8.0 million he earned (when including IP incentives). As a result, expect a pretty significant pay increase in the real world of baseball. In fantasy land, we certainly want to see where Wolf settles before we starting predicting where he should be drafted.

Seattle is the most likely AL destination, and perhaps the safest AL landing spot for the pitcher if he’s going to post solid fantasy numbers in 2010. The Mets are also considered a possible destination for the hurler, who is one of the Top 3-5 starters on the market. Neither team will likely have a huge (positive) impact on Wolf’s win totals. Wolf likely has one or two more seasons where he’ll pitch at the level of a mid-tier starter.