Post-Deadline Pitching: Chihuahuas and Lapdogs

This year, as always, we found the run-up to the MLB trading deadline absorbing and diverting. And this year, yet again, we were struck by the unexploited entertainment potential of the event. Everyone knows that there’s a market for the manufactured drama of big-league sports transactions. We inhabit a world in which 3 million Americans watch the NBA draft, and another 3 million—actually, it’s probably the same 3 million—are willing to sit in front their TV or computer screens on a Saturday afternoon and watch NFL teams make their 5th-round draft choices.

You couldn’t make the MLB draft similarly compelling, of course. NBA and NFL draftees go directly to the teams that select them. They’ll be playing, and often starting, for those teams a few months later. MLB draftees serve (usually years-long) minor-league apprenticeships. This absence of immediate consequences makes the baseball draft dicier as a viewing spectacle.

Not so the last week of July for MLB. Practically every deal that gets done has, and is intended to have, an immediate effect. The Cubs and Rangers double down. The Yankees and (it appears) the Royals muck their hands. As it stands, the process unfolds glacially, and we ourselves kind of like it that way. But we guarantee you that there are handsomely-compensated consultants brooding as we write about how that gradual unfolding can be turned into a one-day extravaganza.

The slower pace of MLB transactions gives guys like us plenty of time to chew each one over. So even now–and we’re writing less than 24 hours after the trading deadline–all the deals have been fully masticated by stronger jaws than ours. And anyway, Fantasywise in the near term, not all that much has happened. Relatively few players have changed their roles or their playing time. You already know that there are a couple of newly-anointed closers. You also probably now know, if you didn’t already, who Charlie Tilson is, and how he’s gone from being buried in the Cardinals’ system to having a shot at a starting job and an abundance of stolen bases with the White Sox. (And, as of Wednesday morning, you also know that he’s probably headed for the DL after getting hurt five innings into his major league debut.) And, since we hate doing work to no purpose, we’ll mention that you already know that Ivan Nova (whom we’d been planning to write about next week, because he’s been having a stealthily good season) figures to thrive in Pittsburgh.

So we despair of telling you anything new about the immediate consequences of any of the deadline deals. But, picking over the carcasses for a few digestible scraps, we came up with four pitchers who might be interesting to have on a deep roster, if not today then within a couple of weeks:

—Brian Johnson, Red Sox. People have forgotten about him fast, and we’re not sure why. He’s a 25-year-old lefthander with a lethal curveball. He was a top-100 prospect going into the 2015 season, then pitched very well at Pawtucket, then had a not-entirely-awful MLB debut last July, then got hurt, then got hurt again, then took some time off to deal with an anxiety disorder. He’s made four starts in the minors since mid-July, three of them superb. Eduardo Rodriguez, who’s always been the Cinderella to Johnson’s ugly stepsister, has been pitching well lately after a rocky start, and of course the Sox just got Drew Pomeranz, so the rotation is full. On the other hand, as we envisioned, Steven Wright has returned to earth. If there’s a vacancy in the Red Sox rotation, Johnson could occupy it, and could thrive.

—Adam Warren, Yankees. The trade of Ivan Nova leaves the Yankees short a starting pitcher, and the starters who’ve been great in AAA this season (Chad Green, Luis Severino) haven’t been great in the bigs. Warren, meanwhile, returned to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade after a rough half-season with the Cubs. He was effective as a starter for the Yankees last season, though (3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)—indeed, he outpitched all the other Yankee starters in home games–and there’s no reason he can’t be again.

—Michael Kelly, Padres. We hadn’t fully realized how feeble the Padres’ starting rotation is in the post-Pomeranz era until today. Take a look at it. The Padres began the season in rebuilding mode, and yet not one guy who was in the rotation in April is in it now. Is this the worst starting rotation of the sabermetric era? If not, name a worse one. Their collective ERA as starters is 5.16; their WHIP is 1.59. They can’t all suddenly start pitching well. Kelly, meanwhile, is a long-ago first-round pick who, after four seasons of futility, has been pretty effective at AA and AAA this season. His 4.54 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at El Paso—a hitters’ park in a hitters’ league—aren’t bad. He’s a hard thrower with good movement on his pitches and shaky control. He’s capable of baffling right-handed hitters on a good day, though, and against, say, the Giants, might be worth a shot. Or not, since it’s entirely possible the Padres won’t win another game this season. We mention him mostly as an excuse to note that the El Paso team’s nickname is the Chihuahuas. We propose that the Padres rename themselves the Lapdogs.

—Juan Nicasio, Pirates. Did the Pirates just sell out? Did they instead buy in? Beats us, but let’s assume the latter. Having gotten Ivan Nova but given up Francisco Liriano, they’re still short one starter. Nicasio, of course, was everybody’s sleeper pick after an exquisite spring training during which he cracked the Pirates’ starting rotation. He had a few good starts, then a few bad ones, and was dispatched to the bullpen, where he’s been outstanding. Right now, it looks like there’s a long line ahead of Nicasio. But top prospect Tyler Glasnow is hurt. In his absence, Ryan Vogelsong evidently has first call, but he had a lot of trouble coming off an injury in August 2013 and we think he’ll have the same trouble coming off a different injury now. Drew Hutchison came from Toronto in the Liriano trade, and continues to bewitch people with his stuff, but he’s got a 4.85 ERA after 73 starts with the Blue Jays, and we, personally, have seen enough. Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault don’t look ready yet. Nicasio, meanwhile, has spent much of his career as a capable starter, and could be one again if the Pirates manage to stay in contention for a wild-card spot and need him to be.