2016 End of Season Rankings: Shortstop

In reality, Corey Seager was indisputably the top shortstop of 2016. Fantasy is not reality. It’s axiomatic. We value things in our fantasy world, like stolen bases, that just aren’t very important in the real universe. I think you probably know where I’m going with this – Seager is not the top shortstop because he didn’t steal bases. Those things are important. I’d argue it’s doubly important for your middle infielders to be base thieves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

I warned you, didn’t I? Seager not only didn’t rank first, he missed the top three altogether. That’s not even including shortstop-eligible Jean Segura. He was worth $24. This has important implications for the first round of 2017 drafts. I’ve seen Seager talked about as the top shortstop – I’ve even hesitantly agreed. Now we have some thinking to do.

Betting on a repeat of Villar’s 62 steals is foolish. I’m anticipating closer to 35. That’ll bump him down to somewhere around the $18 level. Machado should probably be the top shortstop with Seager, Bogaerts, and Correa competing for second fiddle. Personally, I have a lot of analysis ahead of me to solve this particular conundrum. It’s possible I’ll be singing an entirely different tune as soon as tomorrow when I release my Way Too Early Rankings. Let’s not forget Story either. A full season at his pace would have put him right there at the top.

The breakouts at second base sucked some of the value out of shortstop. Most of those middle infield slots went to the keystone. Espinosa (power) and Escobar (speed) served as the replacement level.

Galvis’ 20 home runs are perhaps my favorite surprise of the season. Look at the name under Galvis. It’s the Notorious Tulowizki. Wow, right? Hiding among the negative performers were Cozart, Anderson, Peraza, Polanco, and Swanson.

If you ever wondered how much one-fifth of a good season is worth, take a gander at Swanson’s line. That’s solid five category production and -$14.5. He’ll likely have an important role in the Braves lineup – perhaps batting second. He’ll be overdrafted relative to his projection, but he has the upside to pay off anyway.

Cozart was a rich man’s Galvis, except he had trouble staying on the field for a second consecutive season. Anderson showed surprising Cell-aided pop, and less speed than I expected. He’s a work in progress at the plate. Shallow leagues should check back in two years. Polanco looks like a desirable streaming option with upside to be better.

Peraza has become a personal favorite of mine. This is another case of the calculator hating partial seasons. A healthy, full season of Peraza should look something like Andrus plus 35 steals. I bet he’s drafted in the $11 range, but I’m projecting closer to $20. Maybe expectations will catch up between now and March.