I don’t know what the opposite of a lagger is, so we’ll go with non-laggers for the time being. Anyway, two days ago we looked at five pitchers that underperformed their peripheral stats this year, getting saddled with superficially high ERA’s for whatever reason. Now let’s look at the opposite, five guys who have put up shiny ERA without necessarily having the underlying performance to match…

Clay Buchholz | FIP: 3.63 | ERA: 2.33

Just 0.05 points behind Felix Hernandez for the ERA crown (that’s one extra earned run over 180 IP), Buchholz’s strikeout (6.22 K/9) and walk (3.47 BB/9) rates are both below the league average (7.11 and 3.28, respectively). For some perspective, there have been just 196 instances of a pitcher posting a sub-3.00 ERA with a sub-2.00 K/BB (min. 150 IP) in the expansion era, and the Red Sox righty will be just the third to do it since 1999. Just ten others have done that with an ERA as low as Buchholz’s. His .265 BABIP, 79.0% LOB%, and 5.6% HR/FB all skew towards the pitcher-friendly side of the spectrum as well. There’s no denying that Buchholz is one of the very best young pitchers in baseball, but don’t count on ERA’s that hug the 2.30 line until he starts taking matters into his own hands by striking out a few more batters.

Trevor Cahill | FIP: 4.27 | ERA: 3.08

It’s hard to believe that Cahill started the season in Triple-A considering how well he’s performed, but that’s exactly what happened. Sticking with the common theme of the post, his strikeout rate is well below the league average at 5.31, but he makes up for it with a studly 55.7% ground ball rate. The problem is that all those grounders resulted in just a .237 BABIP, the lowest among all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this year. That doesn’t pass the sniff test. Cahill will always get some help from his ballpark (where foul pop-ups go to die) and outfield defense, but he’s unlikely to keep opponents out of the hit column that well again in the future. Another great young arm like Buchholz, but not one that you should expect to post ERA’s that threaten to dip below 3.00, at least in the immediate future.

R.A. Dickey | FIP: 3.65 | ERA: 2.86

The UCL-less wonder, Dickey has been a godsend for a Mets rotation that seems to be in perpetual flux. He’s managed to limit the free passes to just 2.13 per nine innings despite employing the knuckleball, a pitch that by definition is unpredictable in its flight path. Dickey has also managed to get a ton of ground balls (55.3%) and limit the big flies (no doubt with some help from CitiField). Fair or not, Dickey’s going to have to prove himself again next season just because he has basically no track record at this level, and also because it’s tough to buy into a knuckleballer being a sub-3.00 ERA, or even sub-3.50 ERA pitcher on a consistent basis.

Tim Hudson | FIP: 4.01 | ERA: 2.76

Remember that sub-3.00 ERA, sub-2.00 K/BB club I was talking about with Buchholz above? You can include Hudson in that group as well. His first full season after reconstructive elbow surgery has to be considered a smashing success, simply because he reverted back to the guy he had been his entire career: a ground ball generating workhorse. Hudson has never been one to strike out many batters (5.52 K/9 this year, 6.07 career), but his swinging strike rate dropped to a below league average and career worst 7.0% in 2010. He is what he is at this point, and even though a sub-3.00 ERA is always possible, I’d bet on a return to his mid-3.00’s form next year. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Jonathan Sanchez | FIP: 4.00 | ERA: 3.15

Sanchez is a DIPS theory marvel. He can be flat out unhittable and strikeout out double digit batters, but still exit a start in the sixth inning because he’s walked the farm and one or two of the hits he did allow left the yard. His 9.56 K/9 is third best in the NL, but his 4.35 BB/9 is no better than middle of the pack. Sanchez will always benefit from his ballpark and playing in the lesser league, and the ability to get batters out all by his lonesome should help him limit big innings. Assuming the Giants shore up their defense over the winter (far from a given), Sanchez is very capable of posting low-3.00 ERA’s over the next few years despite all those extraneous walks.

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.