The baseball world went gaga for Buster Posey after he was called up to the bigs and destroyed major league pitchers during the month of July, immediately after the Giants decided to deal Bengie Molina and play Posey everyday.

While players can have big months, Posey’s July was completely off the heezy. Not so much because of his .424 BABIP and .417 batting average, but because he hit seven homers, and another seven extra base hits. His wOBA for July? A whopping .487, with a 210 wRC+. Crazy, to say the least. There was no reason to think he’d produce at a level anywhere near his July, so seeing what he could do when his numbers stabilized was going to be crucial to estimating his value.

Even when he cooled down, his numbers from August weren’t shabby. He hit two jacks and nine doubles, kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level, and continued to smoke like drives. You really couldn’t have asked from much more from a rookie catcher, but I’d bet some owners were disappointed.

Posey’s August was much more indicative of what we’ll see from him next year. Although, when you compare it to July, almost anything would have been. If you look closer, you can see that August was very reasonable and looks right, regardless of what you want to compare it to. His strikeout and walk rates were close to what should be expected, his BABIP (.318) was too, and he didn’t have an explosion of power.

It’s time to evaluate your keepers, so what should you predict for Posey next year? I’m thinking he’ll hit 17 homers with a batting average around .295, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. Odds are he’ll be overvalued next year thanks to his explosive July, but he needs to be valued based off his more reasonable August.

Just last week, R.J. Anderson took a look at Bobby Abreu from a real-life standpoint. He asked for a reason why the Angels outfielder had a low BABIP to right field this year, suggesting perhaps a drop in speed, a change in the defense, issues at the plate or normal variance for Abreu as possible reasons for this aberration. We’ll get into these a little bit, while trying to focus primarily on the meaning for Abreu’s fantasy keeper and 2011 draft value.

First, Anderson basically discounted a change in defenses, so let’s leave that off the table. Second, a random variance is certainly possible, as BABIP doesn’t even normalize over one season and can be unpredictable from year to year, but is less interesting for our purposes, so let’s see if we can find something to sink our teeth into. That leaves us with power and speed as possible culprits for Abreu’s meh season – and it’s about as meh as a 20/20 season can be.

At first blush, Abreu is enjoying a power resurgence. He has his best ISO in five years and should hit 20 home runs for the second time in those five years. But not all power spikes are built equally. This one seems to be attributable to the second-best flyball rate of his career (36.4% this year, 31.9% career). It’s not built on his line drive rate (17.% this year, 22.3% career), and in fact you can see from his line drive rate that he’s not centering the ball like he used to. While it’s possible that the stringers in the Angels park are more cynical than his former venues, Abreu has seen his line drive rate drop below 20% the last two years after consistently living above that threshold for most of his career (and over 24% for most of his peak). Two below-average line drive rates in row would be less worrisome if he didn’t have a bit of a bad body and wasn’t 36 years old.

The second component of his decline is also in a non-obvious slide. A back of the baseball card glance might produce Abreu’s 19 steals and an affirmation that he’s the same old big man with passable wheels. But then you might notice that he’s been caught ten times this year, that his 65.5% success rate is the worst of his career, and that the second-worst success rate of his career was in 2008 (66%). His 2010 Bill James’ four-component speed score is also the second-worst of his career. Add in some subjective reports of slowing foot-speed and the fact that he’s been poor in the field, and it’s reasonable to wonder if the end is nigh for the outfielder-slash-DH.

If the speed is waning, and the power (as represented by his line-drive percentage) is also iffy – and hasn’t been plus since his peak – Abreu’s fantasy stock is on the decline. We can say this even if some parts of this decline may be random variation, and we could probably use his age as an ersatz single stat anyway. A big-bellied 36 year old who derives much of his fantasy value from steals is an iffy proposition – you can probably pencil him in for fewer than 20 stolen bases next year, even if it would be the first time in twelve years that he didn’t hit that benchmark in the category. Give Abreu a slight tick down on your 2011 cheat sheets and think hard before keeping him this offseason.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.

Embracing their youth movement, the Nationals have called up shortstop Danny Espinosa. Because of Ian Desmond’s place on the roster, Espinosa will be playing second base in D.C, and should find playing time on most days for the rest of 2010.

Rated Washington’s fourth best prospect by Marc Hulet, Espinosa has tools that fantasy owners should be drooling over. He has the ability to hit for power as well as steal bases, a quality rarely found in a middle infielder.

The twenty-three year old made his way through the Nationals Double-A and Triple-A affiliates this season, hitting at both levels. During his stint in Harrisburg (AA), Espinosa had an ISO of .202 and 20 steals in 432 trips to the plate. His overall numbers transferred over well to Syracuse (AAA), but his power production declined a bit, which is probably due to a small sample and an adjustment period.

Espinosa will never be a guy with a high LD%, so his batting average may pay the price. However, he’s fast enough to live with hitting grounders, and has the potential to strike out at a below-average rate, allowing Espinosa to keep a respectable batting average in the future. It’s unlikely he’ll ever hit .300, but a .275/20/15 line next year is reasonable and could be expected from the young switch-hitter.. While it’s nothing spectacular, it’s good enough to be owned in every league next year, regardless of his position in the middle infield.

If you’re in a keeper league, Espinosa’s your guy. Owners in redraft leagues shouldn’t be too eager to jump on him, but he’s a good bench option if you’re looking to fill out a roster with upside.

It’s a situation if you call it one, but it could also be a quagmire or a black hole too. The Mets are having open tryouts for second base next year, and the contestants are… shall we say, underwhelming. Still, it’s interesting just because these guys are all similarly challenged, what with the limp noodlery at the plate and all. Someone has to win and that someone might just be relevant in a really deep league, right?

The manager won’t help much, it seems:

“Hernandez is playing pretty good,” Manuel said. “I kind of like what I’m seeing with him. I think Tejada could use a breather here and there. So I’d like to see what we get from that combination. And we still have Louie [Castillo]. We still have [Joaquin] Arias. So we’ll see how it fits going down the stretch.”

Luis Castillo
The old man is suddenly the dark horse in this scenario, but he might provide the team’s best chance to actually get a 100 wRC+ offensive line from their second base spot. On the other hand, it’s probably not happening as the power as completely left him (.033 ISO, .061 career) and he’s had line drive rates around 15% three of the last four years, so the BABIP has started to come down (.257 this year, .329 career, .267 in 2008). His defense looks scratch by the numbers this year, but after two years of declining UZR/150s, it’s probably best that Castillo see his playing time reduced.

Joaquin Arias
Spiderman doesn’t walk, like at all. But he’s quick (like a spider?), and could someday put together a BABIP-influenced league-average second baseman line with perhaps a little less on-base percentage at his peak. It wouldn’t be impossible for him to do something like .275/.315/.390 with a bunch of steals. He’s had 47 of those suckers over the last two years in Triple-A. But with his approach at the plate, a lot of luck would have to factor into him even putting up anything close to the league average. He’s probably a backup too.

Ruben Tejada
Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.

Daniel Murphy
Murph has done everything the team has asked of him, with moves from left field to first base on his resume already. Might he move to second base? He had two games at the position of his eight total games at Triple-A this year, and the team could definitely use his bat at the position if the glove can fit. A career .275/.331/.437 line would play much better at second base and that above-average isolated power (.161) probably represents the most power they could get from the candidates. The question his glove represents is a tough one to answer. Total Zone numbers had him as a scratch defender at third base in the minor leagues, and small samples in the major leagues have shown him to be a good first baseman and a poor outfielder. Even if it seems unlikely that he would be a good defender at second base, it’s worth remembering back to his days as a third baseman before counting him out completely. He’ll have the AFL to show he can be a decent second baseman, and if answers that in the affirmative, he might actually be the front runner in the spring.

Luis Hernandez
Hernandez is a 26 year old with almost 900 career minor league games and a career .250/.302/.331 line that does not even hold water in this light-hitting group. He has played his high-contact game into some decent batting averages the last two years, if light on the power and OBP. He’s a little like Arias without the speed, but he does have one thing over the spidery one: he can play shortstop. At least, Total Zone thinks he can. if the backup second baseman is supposed to be the backup shortstop, which makes sense from a roster flexibility standpoint, then Hernandez might actually win a spot on the team next year.

Reese Havens
Havens is by all accounts the future at the position for the Mets. He’s done some nice things, but it’s important to keep down expectations considering he hasn’t yet compiled more than 360 at-bats in a single year. Injuries have been a problem. Though his biggest sample – High A St. Lucie – doesn’t seem great at first blush (.252/.363/.431), the Florida State League is a notoriously tough league and he showed a nice eye at the plate (55 walks against 73 strikeouts in 353 at-bats). This year he really upped the flyball rate and the power before succumbing to injury yet again. The lack of at-bats make it hard to know exactly how special Havens is, but what he’s shown so far (12% career MiLB walk rate, .206 ISO) is enough to prove that he has the highest upside of this group. Most likely, the Mets start the season with something like Murphy and one of the better defenders (Arias, Tejada or Hernandez) splitting time while Havens proves his mettle and comes up later in the season, although this analysis assumes that the Mets can treat Castillo as a sunk cost and let him go, which is no sure thing given the Mets history. Act accordingly.

A couple of years ago, Collin Balester showed enough promise to make Nationals fans think he could be a part of their big league rotation. At twenty-one years of age, he performed very well in Double-A during the 2007 season, posting a K/BB just north of 3.00. The next year, during his second stint in Triple-A, he posted similar numbers outside of a higher home run rate.

When it came time to pitch in the majors, Balester’s stuff didn’t transfer over as well as anyone would have hoped. He struggled in over 100 big league innings, earning an xFIP around 5.00. Strangely enough, when he was sent back to the minors, he continued his struggles and effectively killed his chances of being a big league starter.

While pitching in the rotation, Balester’s fastball was hovering around 91 mph, but the problems came from his reliance on only two pitches, allowing hitters to easily guess what was coming. Something needed to change, and it needed to happen fast.

After starting the season in the Triple-A rotation, Balester was eventually moved into the bullpen, a move that gave him a chance to rekindle his career. He struggled out of the gate, but something amazing happened in late July. Balester was called back to the bigs, and something clicked for him. He had a brief stint in Washington where he looked great, striking out hitters again and keeping the walks to a minimum. He was eventually sent back to the minors, where he continued the trend.

Balester was recalled a couple of days ago, and picked up right where he left off. He’s been mowing hitters down with ease, looking like a big time asset in the major league bullpen. But, why is this happening?

It’s pretty simple, actually, and he’s been the template for many failed starting pitchers. Coming out of the ‘pen, Balester’s fastball has been sitting around 94 mph, and his two-pitch approach works much better. He has the prototypical frame of a power pitcher (6’5”), so no one should be surprised that he’s bringing the heat.

His sample size is small, but Balester has great velocity, tremendous movement on his curveball, and a chance to be a great major league reliever. At only twenty-four years of age, there is still plenty of time for him to have a major league career, and a sweet moustache should he decide to regrow it. If you’re in an NL-only league and are looking for some strikeouts out of your bullpen, give Balester a shot.

The closer battle in Florida might seem like just another notch in the ‘relievers are just failed starters’ way of thinking. Both the incumbent, Leo Nunez, and the challenger, Clay Hensley, have started games at different points in their careers. Given the fact that manager Edwin Rodriguez has already said that Nunez will probably get his job back, it’s not a great idea to drop Nunez wholesale. How much of a threat does Hensley actually represent, though?

His present rates look nice – he has a 9.47 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 that are both above-average even for relievers – and his luck stats don’t seem to suggest a major regression coming (.286 BABIP, 77.7% LOB, 2.88 FIP). Counting on them to continue in the face of his career rates (6.34 K/9, 4.02 BB/9), however, seems dicey at best. The nice groundball rate (51.9% this year, 52.7% career) looks steady and repeatable, and should always give him a stable level of effectiveness to fall back on.

But it’s the major jump in strikeout rate that has made him a closer option. This is the first year he’s spent the entire year in the bullpen, so a jump could be expected. Jeremy Greenhouse found that moving to the bullpen can give you about 0.7 MPH of fastball velocity, and cited research from Tom Tango that you’d expect a reliever to gain about 17% K/PA in the switch. We haven’t seen the velocity jump for Hensley – he has been showing an 88.7 MPH fastball this year, 88.7 MPH career. Hensley has also seen his strikeout rate jump almost 50% over his career rate, so he’s obviously changed something other than his throwing schedule.

Looking at his pitching mix, one thing jumps out immediately. Hensley has gone from featuring his slider as his best second pitch (8.8% this year, 19.8% career) to focusing more on his curveball (22.4% this year, 9.9% career). In general, he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often, as he’s also upped his changeup usage (21.2% this year, 12.5% career). While the changeup and slider are close enough in velocity that the two pitch f/x systems on our site see them differently, the reduced use of the fastball looks legitimate. Given the linear weights on his slider (+16.7 runs career) and curveball (+10.1 runs career) compared to his fastball (+5.3 runs career, -10.7 runs 2008-2009), this seems like a legitimate change in pitching approach – to his benefit.

Still, as strong as his work has been this year, Hensley has only put together 63 innings at this level of play. It’s the first time since his rookie year in 2005 – another year in which he primarily relieved at the major league level – that he’s put up an FIP under four. To compare, Nunez has put up sub-four FIPs in two of the last three years, and he’s had almost a strikeout per inning over his last 120 innings. Still, given the fact that Nunez has a career strikeout rate (7.04 K/9) that is comparable to Hensley’s (especially once you take out this year’s 9.64 K/9, a career high for Nunez), and owns a similar history of moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s possible that Hensley is next year’s Leo Nunez.

This year, though, you have to give some credence to what the manager says. It also makes sense to take the reliever with the larger sample size of success if you are looking for saves in Florida.

A post holiday hangover edition of “Corner Infielders.”

Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 7% Owned
Overbay has been consistently good during his career, and has been valued as an above-average hitter six out of the last seven years. In a contract year, Overbay has turned up the power and could set a new career high in home runs. While his batting average isn’t great (and this is his first year with a sub-20% LD%), he’s still a decent fantasy producer. Overbay is a better option in AL-only leagues, but you can get away with him playing in a deeper standard league.

Todd Helton | Rockies | 24% Owned
If you can believe it, this is Helton’s first full season with an OBP lower than .380. That kind of consistency is hard to find, but Helton is one of the few hitters who have been able to produce at that level. With a four home run month in August, Helton may be showing us that the power has not completely disappeared from his repertoire. While he’s not the stud he used to be, he’s still worthy of a roster spot if you’re looking for some upside (Todd Helton and upside? Let the ridicule commence).

Casey Blake | Dodgers | 39% Owned
Blake’s long been a late round favorite of mine, and those days may not be behind him. While his numbers are less than stellar this year, Blake is still a consistent producer who’s cost is minimal. If you’re in a bind, give Blake a shot at third base.

Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 250% Owned
Just a friendly reminder that A-Rod returned from the DL on Sunday, so don’t forget to put him back into your lineup.

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Kevin Slowey
LAD – Vicente Padilla
CIN – Aaron Harang
STL – Kyle Lohse

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TEX – Cliff Lee
MIN – Francisco Liriano
SDP – Wade LeBlanc
FLA – Chris Volstad
BAL – Jake Arrieta
PIT – Jeff Karstens
CLV – Carlos Carrasco
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

In his last five games, Slowey has four Quality Starts and is 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He has a good chance to keep up his strong pitching with a home game against the Royals and a road game in Cleveland.

Padilla has been on the disabled list with a bulging disk in his neck and has also been slowed by a contusion in his left leg. But he is scheduled to return to the mound Monday against the Padres and Mat Latos. Padilla has a second road start on tap Saturday in Houston versus Wandy Rodriguez.

Harang made his first start of the second half last Tuesday after missing time due to a lower back strain. Harang threw 91 pitches in four innings in his first outing back and allowed eight hits. He starts in Colorado versus Ubaldo Jimenez before having a home start against the Pirates this week.

In three starts since returning from forearm surgery, Lohse is 1-2 with an 11.48 ERA. He has allowed 4 HR in 13.1 IP. Lohse’s first start this week is Tuesday in Milwaukee, which is the fifth easiest park to hit a homer in this season, according to the ESPN Park Factors. His second start also comes on the road, this time in Atlanta.