Archive for August, 2010

Week 18 Two-Start Pitchers

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 18. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Trevor Cahill – Yes, his peripherals do not match his ERA, thanks mainly to his league-leading .213 BABIP. But he has a 2.19 ERA in eight games at McAfee Coliseum this week and Cahill has two home starts this period, including one against the Royals. Continue to ride Cahill this week.

Livan Hernandez – No one figured Hernandez would be able to keep it up this late in the season. But thanks to his lowest BABIP (.282) in six years and his lowest HR/FB rate (5.4%) since we have the data in 2002, Hernandez has given the Nationals a chance to win each time he pitches. But the veteran has done much better at home this season, where he has an ERA a full run lower than his road mark. With Hernandez and the Nationals having two West Coast road games this week, bench Hernandez for this period.

Derek Lowe – In his last six starts, Lowe is 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Even more surprising is that Lowe is having trouble with the gopher ball, having allowed 6 HR in 34 IP in this stretch. While Lowe does have two home starts this week, his ERA at Turner Field is 4.15 for the season. Move him to the bench until he works his way out of his current funk.

Brett Myers – A pitcher with a lifetime 3.89 xFIP, Myers has a 3.78 mark in the category in 2010. However, his ERA is 68 points beneath that mark, which helped earn Myers a contract extension from the Astros. The veteran has really enjoyed pitching in Minute Maid Park this year, where he is 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. With two road starts this week, give Myers a spot on the bench.

Jason Vargas – Poor run support has hurt Vargas all year long, but especially in his last nine starts. Only once in that span did the Mariners provide him with more than three runs. But the lefty has given Seattle a chance to win on a regular basis this year. And at Safeco Field he is 5-2 with a 2.23 ERA. Vargas has two home starts, so make sure to activate him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Halladay, J. Santana, T. Hudson, Gallardo, Pavano, Latos, Lackey, Lewis, Burnett, Beckett, Lilly, J. Sanchez, Buehrle, Kuroda, Richard, Morrow, Wood, Carmona, Saunders, Wells, Westbrook, Duensing, Porcello, Hellickson, Guthrie, Olsen, Cook, Maholm, Lopez, Bannister, Ohlendorf, Bell, West.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 16 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 2.13 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.868 WHIP (2 starts)
Hunter – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.03 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.675 WHIP (2)
Jurrjens – Advised to start. W, 3.21 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)
Pineiro – Advised to sit. 9.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 2.167 WHIP (1)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2 W, 3.46 ERA, 9 Ks, 0.923 WHIP (2)


Promotion: Ryan Kalish

Injury-ravaged and forced to rely upon the likes of Jeremy Hermida and Darnell McDonald, the Boston Red Sox outfield hasn’t stood out at the plate. Sox fly catchers have a collective .332 wOBA, fifth in the American League. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) has logged all of 45 plate appearances this season, while Mike Cameron (abdomen) also spent significant time on the DL. Ellsbury’s due back soon, and Cameron has been back in the fray for a while. But Boston decided to give Ryan Kalish a promotion yesterday, calling up the top prospect and DFA’ing Hermida.

A New Jersey prep product, Kalish was drafted in the ninth round back in 2006. The two-way player also starred on the grid iron and the hard court, and BA passed along a Chuck Norris Facts-esque tidbit that Kalish didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch as a high school senior. Though the athletic lefty batter had a strong commitment to the University of Virginia, the Sox coaxed him into turning pro with a $600,000 signing bonus.

Kalish didn’t take the field much in 2006 and 2007 — he signed August of ’06 for that above-slot bonus, then suffered a broken hamate bone in his right wrist on a HBP in July of ’07. The injury required surgery that September. Still, Kalish impressed, hitting .317/.406/.472 in 161 PA spent mostly in the New York-Penn League while stealing 20 bases in 23 attempts. BA commended his advanced plate discipline for a young, inexperienced farm talent, while also calling him a plus runner and throwing out a J.D. Drew comp.

In 2008, Kalish began the year rehabbing in extended spring training. After that, he spent most of the season in the low-A South Atlantic League while earning a promotion to High-A California League late in the year. He posted a .273/.365/.363 combined line in 502 PA, displaying keen strike zone awareness (12.2 BB%), K’ing 22.9% and rarely driving the ball (.090 ISO). That ’08 wrist injury played a prominent role in the lack of thump — BA said he “didn’t turn the bat loose like he had in the past, which had a pronounced effect on his power.” On the base paths, Kalish was successful in 19 of 23 tries.

Two-thousand nine would prove to be the 6-1, 205 pounder’s breakout year. In 580 PA divided between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, Kalish batted .279/.364/.457. He stayed selective at the plate (11.7 BB%), but also sliced his strikeout rate slightly (21.1 K%) and hit with more authority (.178 ISO). Kalish was a high-percentage base stealer, too, with 21 SB in 27 attempts.

Kalish entered 2010 as the 96th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect, and ESPN’s Keith Law placed the 22-year-old 86th on his personal top 100 list. Law noted positive changes in Kalish’s swing since he signed with the club:

The Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He’s become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he’s not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he’s now a more polished overall hitter who’s already coming into some power and may add more.

Since then, Kalish has only improved his prospect standing. Starting the season back in Portland and then earning a call-up to Triple-A Pawtucket of the International League, Kalish has a .294/.382/.502 triple-slash in 343 PA. Patience (12.2 BB%), contact (18.1 K%), power (.208 ISO), speed (25 for 28 in SBs) — he has shown it all.

Kalish doesn’t have mammoth pop, and he’s now considered above-average in the speed department rather than a true burner (BA calls him a 55 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). But he possesses an exceptionally well-rounded skill-set that makes him someone to target in keeper leagues. As for the present, it’s hard to say how prominent he is in the Red Sox’ plans. Will Ellsbury be 100% when he returns? Is Cameron only going to play semi-regularly as he continues to battle through injury problems of his own? It’s possible that there are enough open ABs there for Kalish to carve out a role. Keep an eye on how frequently Kalish cracks Boston’s lineup — he could be a nice late-season pickup.


Jon Jay Gets Expanded Play

With Ryan Ludwick headed to San Diego as part of a three-team swap that netted St. Louis Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay’s role with the Cards will expand. The 25-year-old’s big league career is off to a scorching start — in 130 plate appearances, Jay’s bat has already been worth +11 runs. What’s the Chief Justice’s fantasy value? Let’s take a look.

Jay was selected out of Miami in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. At the time, Baseball America described the lefty hitter as “a classic tweener outfielder who doesn’t profile as an everyday player on a championship club.” BA lauded his plate approach, but lamented the lack of “leverage and loft” in his swing. Jay began his pro career in the Low-A Midwest League that summer, and he did what you’d expect a second-team All American to do against less experienced hurlers — he raked (.342/.416/.462 in 268 PA).

Unfortunately, Jay wouldn’t get much of a chance to build upon that robust beginning — in 2007, he hit the DL three times. Jay was shelved twice with a shoulder injury and also became a spectator due to a wrist ailment. His hitting suffered, as Jay put up a .265/.328/.387 line in 253 PA split between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League. He walked in 6.3% of his PA, while striking out 19.6% and posting a .122 ISO. BA noted that scouts were skeptical about his ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors, disliking his “quirky hand pumps and bat waggles at the plate.”

The next season, however, Jay’s prospect status recovered. In 491 PA spent mostly in the Texas League (he got a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League), the Founding Father batted .312/.382/.463. Jay’s walk rate climbed to a decent 9.2%, whiffing 13% and improving his ISO to 151. He returned to the PCL in 2009, where hit slashed .281/.338/.394 in 564 PA. Prior to getting the big league call-up in late April, Jay hit .321/.394/.491 in 191 PCL PA. His overall line in 819 PA at the Triple-A level is .295/.356/.424, with a seven percent rate of free passes taken, a 13.2 K% and a .129 ISO.

Jay’s got a smoldering .382/.433/.583 big league line and a .425 wOBA, but it’s wise not to get overly excited. Putting aside that more than 43% of his balls put in play have fallen for hits so far, Jay’s minor league track record isn’t all that distinguished. He’s not especially patient at the dish, and as his .131 league ISO and near-50% ground ball rate on the farm suggest, his power potential is limited. With St. Louis, he might eventually end up platooned with Allen Craig — Jay’s career line against lefties in the minors is .259/.336/.349 (Craig’s is .303/.358/.542).

That’s not to say that Jay is without his uses, as Sean Smith’s Total Zone suggests Jay would be a plus defender in an outfielder corner, and CHONE projects that he’ll hit .288/.347/.425 in the majors. For fantasy purposes, Jay looks more like a solid major leaguer who’ll need a caddy against same-handed pitching than a breakout star.