Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th, but his owners have noticed that there was something wonky going on before the race to the benchmark ever started. A look at Jack Moore’s piece on the moment gives you a hint, but just look at the Rodriguez and his ISO over his career and it comes into sharp focus:

His offense has been declining for some time now, and power seems to be the reason. His flyball percentage is not the culprit, as it has stayed remarkably steady. Even though his HR/FB percentage has hit a career low this year, it was within his career range before this year, so that seems to be a lagging indicator. Is there an indicator out in front that might have been a harbinger of this power slump?

His hit tracker information is interesting. Using HitTrackerOnline, we can see that the average speed on his home runs has not been the same since 2008:

Of course, that was about the same time that Rodriguez started having hip troubles that has led to surgery and soreness since. In the spring of 2009, the news dropped and he hasn’t been the same since. Fanhouse scout Frankie Pilliere had something interesting scouting things to say, that also centered on the hips. It’s About the Money Stupid spotted this great piece:

Essentially, it all comes down to his lower half. When he’s right, no hitter has the balance and strength in the lower half that he does.
[…]
The swing we see from Rodriguez now is one more reliant on his upper body, with far less explosive torque and his hips following his stride.
[…]
Without creating that coiled spring effect before he releases his hands and with less drive of the hips toward the baseball, bat speed is going to suffer. And while there is no official measurement of actual bat speed available, we’ve seen Rodriguez get beat more often by the fastball without that powerful base from which to hit. It’s just not possible to produce the same bat speed.
[…]
If you’re an optimistic person, and expect the Rodriguez of old to return, what you’ll see is a smaller, abbreviated leg kick where he has very little movement in his lower half before he drives his hips at the ball. You’ll also see his head stay much more centered over the middle of his body and far less upper body involvement. If he can accomplish all that, we’ll see his bat speed return and the more prolific home run numbers will follow.

It looks like the numbers and the scouting facts align: Alex Rodriguez does not have the same juice in his hips that he used to. It’s hard for the average fan to notice, but watching the leg kick and his hips is one key. But, as we fantasy fans know, it’s much easier to watch the speed off his bat and trust the numbers once they turn around. Until they do, we’ll have to assume we are watching the decline of a great hitter.

While Good Doctor is no longer on call, the Toronto Blue Jays still feature a youthful, talented starting rotation. Jays starters boast a collective 4.17 xFIP, a mark bested by only the Minnesota Twins among AL squads. The grizzled veteran of the group is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who has impressed in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

In 125 innings pitched, Marcum has struck out 7.7 batters per nine innings, walked 2.02 per nine and has a 3.24 ERA. Marcum’s xFIP is higher, though still sturdy, at 3.84. The righty gives up a lot of fly balls (38.8 GB% in 2010, 40.1 GB% during his career), and he has given up a home run on just 7.7% of fly balls hit against him. For comparison, his career rate is 11.4% and the MLB average is also around 11 percent. Odds are, that HR/FB figure will climb. But even so, Marcum has missed bats and limited the free passes.

Toronto’s third-round pick in the ’03 draft throws…well, what doesn’t he throw? Marcum has used his 87 MPH fastball less than 50% of the time, supplementing the pitch with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curveball and a low-80’s changeup (some low-80’s sliders are sprinkled in, too). That repertoire, coupled with Marcum’s minuscule walk rate, screams “finesse.” That’s not the case, however. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he’s employing the approach of a power pitcher.

Marcum’s stuff is fooling plenty of hitters. His swinging strike rate is 10.8% (8.4% MLB average), which is tied for seventh among MLB starters with teammate Brandon Morrow. His overall contact rate is 76.1% (81% MLB average), ninth among starters.

Not surprisingly, Marcum’s fastball doesn’t garner many whiffs — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, batters have swung and missed just 4.1% of the time that he throws the pitch (that’s whiffs out of total pitches thrown; the MLB average is around six percent). The rest of his pitches have above-average whiff rates, though. His curve has a 12% whiff%, slightly above the 11.6% MLB average, and his cutter’s causing hitters to come up empty 12.2% (8.4%). But it’s his changeup that’s really flummoxing the opposition. Marcum’s getting whiffs 26.9% of the time that he pulls the string, compared to the 12.6% big league average.

With so few walks, Marcum must be pounding the strike zone, right? Nope. He has located just 42.7% of his pitches within the strike zone. The major league average is 47%. Rather, Marcum is adept at getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate — his 33% outside swing rate is well above the 28.9% MLB average and places ninth among starters. Per Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, batters have chased Marcum’s cutter 34.9% of the time (27.5% MLB average, according to THT’s Harry Pavlidis). That’s nothing compared to the changeup, however — they’re hacking at 53.2% of changeups thrown out of the strike zone (30.7% MLB average).

Marcum did serve a DL stint in early July with elbow inflammation, while also missing a start with a blister on his middle finger. The Jays might be playing for keeps in another division, but they’re squarely in no-man’s land in the AL East. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team take it easy with Marcum down the stretch. In the meantime, he’s plenty useful and is available in slightly more than one-quarter of Yahoo leagues.

Allen Craig, Cardinals (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

St. Louis’ eighth-round pick in the 2006 draft, Craig is a 6-2, 210 pound power hitter with dubious defensive skills. The 26-year-old was recently recalled by the Cards, and he’s expected to spot for Jon Jay against lefties in right field. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Tweets that Craig will also get some starts at third base, now that David Freese is set for season-ending surgery on his right ankle.

Craig posted a .304/.371/.506 line in 593 plate appearances at the Double-A level, with an 8.3% walk rate, a 17.5 K% and a .202 ISO. The California Golden Bear’s bat has been more ferocious in Triple-A — a .322/.380/.551 triple-slash in 842 PA. Craig has an 8.1 BB%, a 19.9 K% and a .229 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. He’s not an especially patient hitter, though he can certainly put a charge into the ball.

What should be expected of Craig at the big league level? Minor League Splits shows that his hitting at Memphis in 2009 translates to a .278/.319/.440 line in the majors, and his 2010 performances equates to .277/.330/.452. CHONE has a similar projection (.276/.333/.448). While he won’t work a lot of walks and he’ll try Tony La Russa’s patience with his glove work, Craig looks like a cheap source of pop in NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Braves (5%)

Atlanta picked up Ankiel from the Royals at the trade deadline (along with Kyle Farnsworth) for LHP Tim Collins, OF Gregor Blanco and RHP Jesse Chavez. The 31-year-old will take over center field for the club while Nate McLouth tries to erase all memories of the past four months, Men in Black style.

Not that Ankiel is having himself a banner season, either. He missed over two-and-a-half months with a right quadriceps strain, just the latest in a litany of ailments that includes a torn left patellar tendon in ’06, a sore knee, shoulder and a sports hernia in ’08 and Achilles tendinitis, a groin strain and a shoulder injury suffered after colliding with the outfield fence in ’09. Ankiel’s got a .262/.319/.456 line in 113 PA so far, with a spike in ground ball rate (50.7%), K rate (32.7%) and pop ups (22.7 IF/FB%) masked by a .343 BABIP. Given the teeny sample, I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those totals.

ZiPS pegs Ankiel as a .254/.310/.458 hitter for the rest of 2010, while CHONE throws out a less sunny .247/.302/.445. There’s little certainty with the Braves’ new lefty slugger. He’s worth a gamble in NL-only formats, but Ankiel’s potential payoff isn’t worth the headaches for mixed leaguers.

In 2004, Juan Uribe posted a 108 wRC+ as a 24-year old. He had position eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS and was one of the most exciting middle infielders in fantasy baseball. Flash forward to 2010 and Uribe has a 107 wRC+ and position eligibility at the same three infield slots. But despite this strong play, Uribe is almost an afterthought in fantasy circles.

After the 2004 season, in which he batted .283 and hit 23 HR, Uribe declined in subsequent years. While the power remained strong, he saw his AVG drop to where he hit .235 and .234 in back-to-back seasons. After an injury-plagued 2008 season, which also saw Alexei Ramirez cut into his playing time, Uribe left the White Sox and signed with the Giants as a minor league free agent.

Uribe bounced back in a big way in 2009, posting a .289 AVG while rebounding from 7 HR in 2008 to 16 HR. This year the AVG has fallen off, currently .261, but he has nearly matched last year’s HR output with 15 HR in 380 ABs.

Last Player Picked has Uribe’s season worth $11. Among second baseman in mixed leagues he is tied for the 10th-best dollar value and among shortstops he ranks tied for sixth. All of this comes from a player who Couch Managers had with an ADP of 256.

For fantasy players, the key question is: Can Uribe keep it up, whatever “it” may be? In his breakout season of 2004, Uribe posted a .307 BABIP, certainly not a mark to turn anyone’s head. But from 2005 through 2008, Uribe had marks of .264, .240, .259 and .287 in the category, helping to explain the sub-par AVG. Last year he had his best season, with a BABIP of .325, and this year he checks in with a .274 mark.

If we look at his batted ball profile, we see Uribe has dramatically increased his GB%. In his last year with the White Sox, Uribe had a 34.4 GB%, a career-low, but basically in line with what he had done previously. Last year he had a 39.5 GB% and so far this year it is 43.5 percent. While Uribe is hitting fewer fly balls, he is compensating with a higher HR/FB rate. Last year he set a career-high with a 12.6 percent rate and this year Uribe has a 13.2 mark.

But while Uribe is poised to post career-best HR/FB rates in back-to-back years, it was not significantly better than his career marks. Lifetime he has a 10.1 HR/FB rate and he topped 12 percent in two seasons prior to 2009.

One other statistic of note is how well Uribe has hit in San Francisco. In his time with the Giants, Uribe has a .326 AVG in 344 ABs at home compared to a .233 AVG in 395 ABs on the road. Additionally, he has 18 HR at home compared to 13 in road parks.

Uribe is a free agent following the 2010 season. The Giants already have 2B Freddy Sanchez under contract for 2011 and hold a club option on SS Edgar Renteria. UZR shows Uribe as a good fielder at 2B in his two years with the Giants, but below average at SS.

Regardless of where he signs, Uribe should still be a good power option in the middle infield for 2011. But fantasy owners may be disappointed with his AVG, especially if he leaves San Francisco. While it is normal for BABIP and AVG to fluctuate wildly year to year compared to other fantasy stats, Uribe’s career marks in those categories do not show someone to count on to be a plus performer.

Still, even with just a fair mark in AVG, Uribe should be a valuable fantasy player due to his power, as MI who can hit 20 HR do not grow on trees. In 2009, only 14 players with MI eligibility hit 20 HR. Updated ZiPS projects Uribe to finish with 20 HR in 2010.

After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of July.

10. Andres Torres .317-7-20-23-5

An injury to Mark DeRosa opened playing time for Torres earlier this year and he has seemingly claimed a permanent spot in the Giants’ outfield. Torres has dwarfed preseason expectations, as he outhomered his ZiPS projection in July alone. His overall numbers this past month are very similar to Aramis Ramirez but a 5-0 edge in SB gives Torres the nod.

9. Mark Teixeira .344-8-26-25-0

Remember when Teixeira looked washed up in April? Since May 1st, he has been the Teixeira of old, being a force in four fantasy categories. This is the second time in three months Teixeira made this list, as he was also mentioned in the May edition.

8. Joey Votto .362-9-17-24-1

Four players hit 9 HR in July and Votto had the fewest RBIs. The other three averaged 22.3 RBIs.

7. Josh Hamilton .418-5-17-17-1

It is not a big surprise to see Hamilton on this list but doing it with below average HR and RBI totals and the third-best AVG in the month is a bit unusual. The top fantasy hitter in June, Hamilton had the power numbers that month that he lacks here in July. But no one is complaining about this line.

6. Miguel Cabrera .398-6-23-17-0

He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in both AVG and HR. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish the year the same way, with a comfortable 13-RBI lead over Alex Rodriguez but finishing second to Josh Hamilton in AVG and second to Jose Bautista in HR.

5. Aubrey Huff .367-8-23-25-2

The Giants went 20-8 in the month of July and with two of their hitters being the top fantasy hitters in the month it is not a big surprise. The .367 AVG that Huff produced was the third highest for him in any month in his career. He batted .402 in July of 2008 and .385 in August of 2004.

4. Jose Bautista .347-11-29-20-1

Bautista is having such an amazing year that it is hard to remember how awful he was in April when he hit just .214 for the month. Actually, Bautista has been hot every other month, with big production in May and July and Mendoza-like production in April and June.

3. Buster Posey .417-7-24-20-0

If there were position adjustments, Posey would be an easy top pick for best hitter. Hopefully you did not trade him in Week #13.

2. Carlos Gonzalez .382-9-22-20-4

The Venezuelan native has been involved in two high-profile deals in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal and then Oakland to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal. I think it’s safe to say he will be in Colorado for the foreseeable future.

1. Delmon Young .434-6-30-17-1

What kind of odds could you have gotten in Vegas before the season that Young would be the top fantasy hitter in a month? Generally considered a bust since arriving in the majors, the top overall pick in the 2003 Draft is justifying the hype. He led all major leaguers in AVG and was second in RBIs in July.

Honorable Mention – Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Angel Pagan, Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Barry Enright – Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He began this year repeating Double-A, which is generally not something you want a 24-year old to be doing. However, Enright dominated in his second go-round in Mobile, as he regained his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) and did even better limiting walks (1.4 BB/9). But instead of going to Triple-A, Arizona called him up to replace Dontrelle Willis in the rotation. Enright has been solid, with 2 W and a 6.31 K/9 in six starts. His ERA is a nifty 2.78 but both his FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.68) paint a different picture. The past three seasons in the minors, Enright has a 0.9 HR/9 ratio and this year he has a 0.76 major league rate, so perhaps his talent level is closer to his FIP, which would make him worthwhile. Enright is not a star but he has a chance to give fantasy owners a league average ERA, something not many starters hanging around the waiver wire in August can do.

Logan Morrison – Florida Marlins (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Chris Coghlan going on the DL, the Marlins called up Morrison to become their starting left fielder. With the trade of Jorge Cantu, Morrison has a good chance to stick around even when Coghlan returns, as Coghlan is a former infielder. Morrison has gotten off to a poor start but he is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is unlikely to continue with a .214 AVG. Morrison will not offer much in SB and he does not have typical power for a 1B. But he is a pure hitter and those in leagues that count OBP should definitely pick up Morrison for the remainder of the season.

Brett Wallace – Houston Astros (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

The 13th player selected in the 2008 Draft, Wallace is now with his fourth organization. Normally that is not a very good sign, as teams generally do not trade top prospects. But at least some of the concern surrounding Wallace was his defensive position and now he is primed to take over as the Astros first baseman. Wallace brings power potential and anyone on the wire who can produce HRs is always a welcome sight. He hit 18 HR in Triple-A this season. Wallace is not the overall hitter that Morrison is but if you are in search of power, he is the better choice for 2010.

The Boston Red Sox acquired C Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the Texas Rangers for 1B Chris McGuiness, RHP Roman Mendez, a player to be named later and cash.

Remember when Saltalamacchia was the key prospect acquired by the Rangers in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira trade that also netted Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz? Now, the switch-hitter’s future is murky following injury issues and problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher, a la Rube Baker in Major League II.

Salty has struggled in the majors to this point, batting .251/.313/.388 in 874 PA. His wOBA is .306, and his wRC+ is 82. While the 25-year-old hasn’t been a total hacker, his 8.1% walk rate is a bit below the big league average, and he has punched out 31.1% of the time. The 6-4, 235 pound specimen hasn’t pounded the ball, either, with a .137 Isolated Power. Behind the dish, Sean Smith’s Total Zone pegs him as five runs below average per 1,200 innings. Salty missed time in 2008 with a forearm strain, and then he had to undergo right shoulder surgery in 2009 for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. This spring, he battled a back injury.

At Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, Salty had a .244/.326/.445 line in 270 PA. He’s walked 9.3% of the time, punched out 25.2% and posted a .201 ISO. While it’s hard to evaluate this trade without knowing the significance of the PTBNL, Saltalamacchia looks like a worthwhile reclamation project for Boston. He’s still relatively young and he’s under team control for several years to come, which makes him a possible alternative to pending free agent Victor Martinez.

Salty’s fantasy value is nil for the rest of the season. His bat no longer looks special, and he must prove durable while not embarrassing himself defensively. Don’t totally write him off, though. The offensive bar is set low for backstops (.251/.324/.383 MLB average), and he’s got enough offensive ability to clear that mark if he can avoid face-planting in the other aspects of catching.

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired C Chris Snyder, SS Pedro Ciriaco and cash from the Arizona Diamondbacks for SS Bobby Crosby, RHP D.J. Carrasco and RF Ryan Church.

Pittsburgh picked up Snyder in what amounts to an Arizona salary dump — the only semi-useful item the D-Backs got back was Carrasco, a middle reliever non-tendered by the White Sox last winter. Snyder, 29, will make $5.75 million in 2011, and he’s got a $6.75 million club option for 2012 ($750,000 buyout). Arizona sent $3 million to the ‘Burgh as part of the trade.

With the Pirates, Snyder will take over as the starting catcher. Ryan Doumit, due off the DL soon, will only catch occasionally while getting re-acclimated to first base and the corner outfield. ZiPS doesn’t see a huge difference between the two from an offensive standpoint (.339 rest-of-season wOBA for Snyder, .333 for Doumit). This is a quality move for the Bucs, however, given the modest financial investment involved and the spare parts surrendered in the trade. Snyder’s not known as a defensive stalwart and his 2009 season was marred by a back ailment, but Doumit’s injury history is even more checkered — he tore his left hamstring in 2006, sprained his left wrist and ankle in 2007, fractured his left thumb in 2008, suffered a right wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 and has dealt with concussion-like symptoms in 2010.

Snyder’s owned in just five percent of Yahoo leagues right now. He’s got solid secondary skills for a catcher, and ZiPS projects him to bat .240/.345/.417 for the rest of the year. You could do worse if you need some help behind the plate.

Big update because of the deadline activity and one noteworthy call up…

Rich Harden | Rangers | 26% owned

After a month long stint on a disabled with a strained glute, the game’s premier three true outcomes pitcher returned Saturday and held the Angels to one run over seven innings of work. Despite that stellar outing, we know what Harden is: he’s basically a five inning pitcher with enough swing-and-missability to strikeout a batter an inning, but he’ll kill you in WHIP and chances are ERA as well. (R) ZiPS sees a 4.29 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.64 K/9 the rest of the way, but it’s a risky proposition. Texas will win him some games with their offense and bullpen, but start him at your own risk. His next comes at the A’s, which might be worth it, but after that Texas runs through the AL East gauntlet.

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 6%

The best pitching prospect in the minors is getting the call today for what the Rays say is a one start cameo; they’re just giving their usual starting five an extra day of rest. Hellickson’s minor league numbers are off the charts (2.72 FIP between Double- and Triple-A) and he’ll be facing a Twins’ lineup without Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau tonight. These one start jobs are always risky, even with great young pitchers, but everything lines up well for a quality start out of Hellickson tonight. Chances are he’ll be back up at some point this season, maybe as a reliever. It’s worth noting that he’s listed as a RP exclusively in Yahoo! leagues, which may or may not hurt your flexibility if you splurge for it.

Dan Hudson | Diamondbacks | 3%

We’ve written quite a bit out Hudson recently, so I’ll keep it short. Basically he’s moving to an easier league and into a park ever so slightly better for his fly ball tendencies, which obviously increases his value. Hudson schooled the Mets in CitiField yesterday (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K), and his next two starts come at home against the Padres and in Milwaukee.

Edwin Jackson | White Sox | 51%

The guy Hudson was traded for sees his value drop for similar reasons. Jackson’s moving to a tougher league in a more hitter friendly park, so that 6.92 K/9 and 4.02 BB/9 are going to have to improve if he ever plans on being a low-4.00’s ERA guy. Of course that’s been the book on Jackson for years now. His first start as a ChiSox will come Wednesday again one of his many former teams, the Tigers in Detroit. Hard to believe Jackson’s now on his fifth team and is still just 26-years-old.

John Lannan | Nationals | 1%

There’s really not much to discuss as far as Lannan is concerned, we know what he is (4.84 career FIP), but we should talk about the guy he’s replacing, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats understandably took the cautious road when their franchise pitcher had trouble getting loose last Tuesday, eventually placing him on the 15-day DL. He threw on the side over the weekend and felt fine, so hopefully his return won’t be delayed longer than the two weeks plus a day minimum.

For fantasy owners in redraft leagues, we’re reaching the point of the season where trading a guy like Strasburg is good strategy. He’ll soon bump up against his innings limit, and the Nats are going to shut him down at the slightest hint of discomfort, so if you can deal him to upgrade your team elsewhere or land a more reliable starter, then by all means do it.

Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51%

Lilly got a lot of play before the deadline as a gutsy guy that pitched inside to righties with his 85 mph fastball and all that jazz, but his fantasy value is limited because of moderate strikeout rates and what should be underwhelming ERA’s. Moving from Wrigley to Dodger Stadium will certainly help lessen his 1.46 HR/9 rate this year, and his BABIP (.261) and LOB% (75.7%) luck has been in play for parts of four seasons now. After 700 innings does that luck become a skill? That’s a question for people much smarter than I, but for fantasy value Lilly certainly gets an uptick following the trade. His next two outings came at home against the Padres and Nationals.

Jake Westbrook | Cardinals | 6%

After Mark Buehrle, I’ve always believed that Westbrook was the perfect St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for no reason whatsoever. I guess something about a sinkerballer and Dave Duncan just makes sense. Westbrook’s walk rate has risen following elbow reconstruction, which isn’t surprising since control and command are traditionally the last things to come back. Moving into the NL should improve his peripherals a touch and lower his ERA, possibly into the low-4.00’s, but he’s still not much more than a fifth or sixth fantasy starter. His first start for his new time comes tonight against the punchless Astros.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

According to Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will call up OF Peter Bourjos from Triple-A Salt Lake. Bourjos might not crack the lineup on a regular basis, but let’s take a look at his long-term fantasy value.

Bourjos, 23, was selected in the tenth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Arizona prep product intrigued scouts with his scorching speed and ability to cover wide swaths of territory, and the Angels opened up the check book to give him an above-slot $325,000 signing bonus. Bourjos batted .292/.354/.472 in 279 Pioneer League plate appearances during his ’06 pro debut, stealing 13 bases and getting caught five times. Following the season, Baseball America called him an “easy, graceful runner” and said he had more power than his 6-1, 180 pound frame suggested, but BA also called his strike-zone control “crude.”

Unfortunately, Bourjos wouldn’t get a full season’s worth of reps in 2007 to work out the kinks in his plate discipline. The righty batter suffered a left hand injury that he initially tried to play through, but he finally gave in and had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in May. In 270 PA in the Low-A Midwest League, Bourjos put up a .274/.335/.426 line, with a 7.4% walk rate, a 22.4 K% and a .152 ISO. He nabbed 19 bases, though he was caught stealing nine times as well. Talent evaluators continued to question whether Bourjos’ bat would play at the upper levels of the minors. “His approach,” BA said, “vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, he’s busy in his setup and he often lacks balance through his swing.”

The next season, Bourjos was bumped up to the High-A California League. He hit .295/.326/.444 in 545 PA, and he was a monster on the base paths (50-for-60 in SB attempts, good for an 83.3% success rate). Bourjos just about never walked (3.5 BB%), while K’ing 18.9% and posting a .149 ISO. The Cal League is a great place to hit, so Bourjos’ park-and-luck-adjusted line was a little less impressive at .280/.311/.429. While again praising Bourjos’ plus defense and base-stealing talents, BA said:

There are still questions about Bourjos’ bat. He has a funky swing and tough he showed improvement, he still chases pitches out of the zone and rarely walks. He’ll need to show a much more patient approach to realize his potential as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Bourjos made some strides in terms of not getting himself out. The speedster slashed .281/.354/.423 in 504 Double-A Texas League PA, drawing ball four 9.7%, whiffing 17.6% and compiling a .142 ISO. On the bases, he was 32-for-44 (a 72.3% success rate). A ligament tear in his left wrist necessitated off-season surgery, but that didn’t put much of a damper on a season in which he progressed at the plate. Baseball America was most enthusiastic about Bourjos’ prospect status, ranking him #97 on the publication’s top 100 list. John Sickels graded him as a B- talent. Bourjos didn’t make Keith Law’s top 100.

At Salt Lake of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Bourjos has hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PA, with 27 SB in 32 tries. His park-and-luck adjusted line, by contrast, is .289/.341/.467. Those strike zone gains didn’t make the trip with him to the PCL, as Bourjos as a 5.3 BB%. He has struck out 18.9% and has a .184 ISO, the product of lots of triples (twelve) and a park-aided 13 home runs.

Chances are, Bourjos would struggle mightily if given everyday ABs in the big leagues. His major league equivalent line is .255/.294/.401 according to Minor League Splits, and CHONE projects him for a .255/.300/.375 showing. It’s worth noting, however, that Sean Smith’s Total Zone adores Bourjos’ defense. That could come into play, considering the Angels’ outfielders have been a collective 18 runs below average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Bourjos isn’t likely to have much fantasy value right now. His wheels make him attractive to fantasy owners in the long-term, and his run-saving D gives him a good chance to carve out a starting role in the not-too-distant future. It’d surely be appreciated, though, if he could stop hacking so much.