Archive for August, 2010

Week 20 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KAN – Zack Greinke
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
CLV – Jeanmar Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Adam Wainwright
COL – Jeff Francis
CLV – Josh Tomlin

Last year Greinke was the toast of the baseball world and this year he sits with a 7-11 record. There are three main reasons for the differences between the two seasons. First, Greinke is striking out fewer batters this year. After posting a 9.50 K/9 a year ago, Greinke has a 7.59 rate this season. Next, his home run rate has doubled from 2009, although last year was the outlier. This season’s 0.84 HR/9 is more in line with his lifetime 0.94 rate. Finally, after posting a 79.3 LOB% in 2009, Greinke is below average with a 65.5 strand rate this season.

After three starts in Triple-A to stretch out his arm, Chacin returns to the Rockies’ rotation after spending most of July pitching out of the bullpen. With four pitches, Chacin profiles as a starting pitcher but he needs to get his walk rate under control. While he has an impressive 9.73 K/9, he has a disappointing 4.15 BB/9, which would be the fifth-worst mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. In seven games this year in the minors, Chacin has a 4.29 BB/9.

Gomez made headlines when he threw a perfect game for the Double-A Akron Aeros. After going 8-8 in Triple-A this year, Gomez has been a perfect 3-0 since joining Cleveland the third week of July. Gomez has a poor strikeout rate (4.63 K/9) but he gets groundballs (1.61 GB/FB), does not walk anyone (1.93 BB/9) and keeps the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9). Gomez has a 1.54 ERA but a 3.52 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP.


Catchers: August 16th

With my batteries recharged after a “vacation,” here are some catcher notes to start your week.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Seeing Salty in a Red Sox uniform just feels right, doesn’t it? While he hasn’t shown a ton of promise since his big time Triple-A performance in 2008, the Red Sox are going to give him a chance to prove himself in minimal action the rest of the year. He’s still only 25, and he did hit 11 homers in 270 Triple-A plate appearances this year with the Rangers. He didn’t transition into the Red Sox system well, but his 23 trips to the plate don’t deter me. He has a career line drive rate of 21.2%, and a league average walk rate, but he needs to cut back on his strikeouts by around 10%. If Salty can show some progress in the bigs, the Red Sox may decide he’s ready for a bigger role next year if Victor Martinez walks in free agency. If you have a big bench in a keeper league, he might be worth stashing.

Ryan Doumit | Pirates | 40% Owned

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder, it seemed like Doumit would be moving to right field full time. Since returning from the DL, he has played in five games, manning right field only once. It appears that the Pirates were intent on giving Jeff Clement another chance to prove himself at first base, and that threw a wrench into Snyder’s playing time behind the dish, and Doumit’s playing time elsewhere. Now that the Pirates have tired of Clement, Doumit should move over to RF with Garrett Jones taking over at first base. A move away from the plate should improve Doumit’s offensive numbers, and he’ll still be catcher eligible next year. While he isn’t a great keeper, he’s still worth a spot on your roster for the rest of the season.


Interesting Week 20 Two-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Bronson Arroyo – He has gotten a decision in his last 11 games. This week Arroyo has two road starts but he has pitched better this season away from Great American Ball Park. Arroyo is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in road action. Put him in your lineup this week.

Dallas Braden – Since returning from an elbow injury that required a DL stint, Braden is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. His K rate is a tick better at 5.9 percent but where he has really excelled is in limiting the gopher ball. In 35 IP he has allowed 3 HR. This week he has two home starts against the Blue Jays and Rays. While Toronto leads the AL in HR, it has done most of that damage at home, where it has clubbed 103 HR in 1,852 AB. Make sure Braden is active.

Jonathon Niese – In his last nine games, Niese has thrown a Quality Start in seven of them. The only two times he did not were against the Diamondbacks. This year he has an 8.68 ERA against Arizona and a 3.09 ERA versus the rest of the league. Niese has two road starts this week, but is road ERA (3.57) is nearly identical to his mark in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are no longer talking about skipping Niese in the rotation and neither should you.

Wandy Rodriguez – In the middle of June, Rodriguez was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. From that point on, he is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which is one of the most dramatic turnarounds you will see. He has a 5.4 K/BB rate with 59 Ks in 60.1 IP. His first start this week against Niese should be a dandy. Keep Rodriguez active.

Barry Zito – He has stepped up his game since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA in six second-half games and a 7.93 K/9. But Zito has struggled in road games this year, with a 2-4 record and a 4.30 ERA. With road matchups this week against Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, it might be a good time to stash him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lee Wainwright, J. Santana, Weaver, Price, Verlander, Kershaw, Hanson, Nolasco, Danks, Oswalt, Garza, Buchholz, Billingsley, Scherzer, B. Anderson, Vazquez, Baker, Marcum, Garland, Hunter, D. Hudson, Minor, Wells, Gorzelanny, Correia, Francis, Fister, McDonald, Volstad, Millwood, Tomlin, Olsen, Bergesen, Duke, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Cahill – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.765 WHIP (2 starts)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 1.26 ERA, 0.977 WHIP (2)
D. Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP (2)
Myers – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. 2 W, 5Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP (2)


Waiver Wire: August 13th

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports
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RotoGraphs Chat – 8/13/10


Stoppin’ Short

This was going to be a rankings update, because it’s been six weeks since we last looked at the shortstops, but amazingly little has changed. There’s still Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins at the top, some okay guys four-through-eight, and then a whole bunch of leftovers.

Instead let’s look at some guys near the bottom, just in case you are looking for an injury replacement, or your current shortstop is just killing you. They might be on your mixed- or deep-league waiver wire, and can provide some short-term help.

Stephen Drew, Arizona (60% owned)
The younger Drew has not had a great month, going .224 with three home runs and no stolen bases, but he was just part of a four-home-run-in-a-row onslaught that could awaken the bat. His current .146 ISO is well below his career number (.170) and since ISO takes the longest to become predictable (550 plate appearances, and Drew has 435 PAs), there’s still some hope left that the power returns. The speed scores have stayed steady around 5.8, so he looks like he’s got above-average speed (5.0 is average) and will sprinkle some steals in. With his batting average currently batted-ball luck neutral (.301 BABIP), we can’t expect a lot in that category. With a little power boost, though, he could best his ZiPs RoS without too much effort.

Yunel Escobar, Toronto (49% owned)
It seems that the change of venue has treated Escobar well. He’s gone .306/.344/.447 since the trade, and those are entirely repeatable numbers based on his .292/.367/.405 career numbers and the power drought he was mired in earlier in the season. Since joining the Jays, Escobar has eschewed the walk (4.3%, 9.5% career) in favor of some pop (.141 ISO, .114 career ISO) – that should sound familiar to anyone watching the “Grip It & Rip It” Jays right now. They have the fourth-worst walk rate in the American League, and the best ISO by far (.210 to the Red Sox’ .189). It remains to be seen how this affects Escobar long term, but more power would make him a fringe mixed-league candidate. He still hits too many balls on the ground to really be a power threat, and his speed scores (3.4 career) make him a poor pickup for steals. But if you need a little batting average and the occasional home run, Escobar is in the right place right now.

Brendan Ryan, St. Louis (3% owned)
Ryan is no great shakes. That much should be obvious from his career wRC+ (85) if not from any of his other underwhelming statistics. He has no power (.090 career ISO) and last year’s 14 steals were a career high. But as fantasy players, you all know that shortstop is a tough position to fill. The average wOBA of qualifying shortstops this year is .311, while the average wOBA across all positions is .324. Suddenly his 85 wRC+ doesn’t look as bad next to the average shortstop’s 96 wRC+. Ryan has also been working on his swing by reducing his movement – a development than anyone who has watched Ryan would welcome. We know all about the horrors of the small sample size, but since the break, Ryan has put up a .299/.333/.338 line that looks sustainable given the fact that his BABIP regression (currently .251) will hopefully help him continue to push his currently horrid line back to his career norms.

Jed Lowrie, Boston (1% owned)
It’s possible that Jed Lowrie is actually Yunel-Escobar-lite. He has poor speed (3.7 career speed score), and the power hasn’t shown itself yet (.137 ISO career). But his career has been so short to date because of his myriad injuries (436 PAs) that his ISO has not stabilized yet. His best season in the minor leagues was his healthiest, when he put up 498 combined ABs between Double- and Triple-A and had a combined .290/.387/.495 park- and luck-adjusted line according to MinorLeagueSplits.com. Of course, the MLE for that (.243/.318/.397) looks a lot like his major league line so far (.244/.327/.381), so maybe this is what we get. He can definitely take a walk, though (11.5% career walk rate), and has value in OBP leagues. So far in August, he has 24 ABs in 12 Red Sox games, which is just barely relevant. If the Sox fall further out of it, they may just want to see what they have in the young dude.


Waiver Wire: August 12th

A pair of hot hitting outfielders worth considering for your squad…

David Murphy | Rangers | 9% owned

So far this season Ron Washington has shown that he will ride the hot hand, and Murphy is that guy right now. Acquired from the Red Sox in the ill-fated Eric Gagne deal, the lefty swinging outfielder has hit .357/.426/.643 with four homers and as many walks as strikeouts (five) over the last two weeks, taking over the everyday leftfield duties with Josh Hamilton sliding over to center. Murphy does have a rather considerable platoon split for his career (.350 wOBA vs. RHP, .297 vs. LHP), so you probably don’t want to start him when the Rangers face Jon Lester this weekend and David Price early next week, but otherwise go for it. It might only be a short-lived hot streak, but every little bit helps.

Mike Stanton | Marlins | 27% owned

Stanton came up with much fanfare earlier this season, but he unsurprisingly struggled a bit out of the gate (.217/.283/.409 in his first six weeks as a big leaguer). High strikeout guys tend to do that, and hey, it’s not easy being a big leaguer. However, the rookie has turned it on big time over the last month, with a .324/.405/.689 batting line capped off by last night’s 5-for-5, ten total base effort. No disrespect to Murphy, but Stanton’s the safer bet here; I don’t think too many people would be shocked if he performed at the similar level during the rest of the season.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


A New Split For Adam LaRoche

If you asked fantasy players to name a player who performed well in a split, the vast majority of them would name Adam LaRoche and his play in the second half of the season. True to form, LaRoche has a .323/.366/.570 line in the second half. Before the All-Star break, LaRoche had a .787 OPS.

But it is another split that is really making things interesting for LaRoche. For the first time in his career, LaRoche is punishing LHP. Coming into this season he had a .251 lifetime AVG versus southpaws. Only in 2007, when he hit .299, did LaRoche have a good AVG versus lefties. While he had decent to good ISOs versus southpaws, he batted .250 or less in five of his six previous seasons.

It is a different story in 2010. Overall he has a .327/.369/.602 line in 122 PA versus lefties. Since the All-Star break he is 18-44 (.409) with 4 2B, 3B, 2 HR and 10 RBIs against LHP. That works out to a .682 SLG and a 1.117 OPS.

Most of the damage came in one game against Jonathon Niese, when he had 2 HR and 6 RBIs. But LaRoche has also fared well against Jonathan Sanchez and Cole Hamels in this stretch and had big games against Scott Olsen and Ross Detwiler, too.

Lefties out of the bullpen are still having typical success versus LaRoche, as he is 4-17 against southpaw relievers since the break, without an extra-base hit or RBI. He is 0-3 against both Joe Thatcher and Oliver Perez.

We know in the aggregate that most splits have no predictive value. The most likely answer to LaRoche’s success this year versus southpaws is that it is merely an outlier in his performance and that he will regress towards his lifetime .784 OPS.

However, given LaRoche’s history of consistently performing well in the second half, fantasy players would be remiss not to track his performance versus lefties the rest of the season. If he adds hitting southpaws to his resume, LaRoche should move up from last year’s 219 ADP.


Promotion: Chris Carter

One of the six players they received from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, the Athletics are actually Chris Carter’s third organization. He was originally a 15th round pick by the White Sox in 2005, but they traded him straight up for Carlos Quentin in December of 2007. Eleven days later, Carter was swapped as part of the package for Haren, and 968 days after that, he made his Major League debut.

Before the trade, Carter slugged .522 (.224 ISO) with a 12.5 BB% and 24.0 K% as a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, certainly strong numbers for a kid playing 100+ games in a season for the first time. His power output exploded the next season, unsurprising in the notoriously hitter friendly High-A Cal League. Carter’s .310 ISO led the circuit by 40 points thanks to his 39 homers, and he still maintained a solid 12.9 BB%. The problem were the strikeouts, which clocked in at 30.8 K%, second highest in the league. Regardless, Baseball America ranked him the 76th best prospect in the game after the season.

Bumped up to Double-A Midland to start 2009, Carter enjoyed his finest pro season. Not only did he again lead the league in ISO (.239, led by 46 pts), but he still showed the same patient approach (13.8 BB%) while cutting down on the strike threes (24.3 K%). As a reward for his efforts, he received a statistically insignificant 13 game cameo with Triple-A Sacramento at the end of the season. All told, Carter posted career highs across the board in 2009 when he hit .329/.422/.570, and was named the 28th best prospect in baseball by the Baseball America gang after the campaign.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 lbs., Carter certainly passes the eye test as a power hitter. “Home runs always will be Carter’s calling card,” said the BA crew before the season started. “However, he dedicated himself to becoming a more complete hitter and stopped giving away at-bats … With his pure strength and explosive wrists, he still produces light-tower power. Carter can hit balls out of any part of any ballpark, and he’s strong enough to do so without having to sell out for power.” On the downside, they also note that he can get anxious at the plate and tends to jump at breaking balls, something that Carter will obviously have to work on.

Sent back to Triple-A to start the 2010 season, the A’s best prospect hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 503 plate appearances before getting the call over the weekend. He played his first game last night, going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, seeing a total of ten pitches as the A’s lost to Seattle.

Before the season, CHONE projected a .232/.311/.393 batting line for Carter, while ZiPS rest of the season projection has him at .233/.317/.416. Those high strikeout guys can have a tough time adjusting to big league pitching when they first get called up (cough Mike Stanton cough), so those predictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. Currently eligible at just 1B, Carter is playing LF for the A’s, so it’s only a matter of time before he gains eligibility there. He actually started his career as a third baseman (and even played a game at short in the minors), but that boat is long gone. 1B/OF will be his primary spots from here on out, and he isn’t particularly good at either (not that it matters here).

Given his home park and the offense around him, Carter’s fantasy value is likely to be low over the next two months and probably even next season. Given the rather mammoth production coming out of first baseman these days (seriously, 1B across the league are hitting .269/.354/.458) and some of the strong outfielders out there, I wouldn’t consider Carter for anything more than a injury fill-in at this point. If he goes on a tear and hits five homers in a week like he’s capable of, then by all means grab him. I’m just not confident in his ability to come up and produce right away.


Dayan Viciedo’s Walk Rate

Monday night White Sox 3B Dayan Viciedo went 0-3. He now has 74 PA without a walk, the most by any player this year. Since 1901, the record for most PA without a walk is held by Hall of Fame pitcher Ed Walsh, who went 156 PA without a single base on balls. If we limit it to non-pitchers, the record is 148, set by the immortal Craig Robinson, who was a middle infielder for the Phillies in 1973.

Robinson is one of eight non-pitchers to amass over 100 PA in a season without drawing a walk, the most recent being Alejandro Sanchez, who accumulated 133 PA in 1985. Sanchez was actually the best hitter of this group, with a .707 OPS. The next highest mark was the .500 one posted by Robinson.

If the season ended Monday, Viciedo would rank 34th on the list of most PA without a walk (non-pitcher division). But while the vast majority of these players brought very little to the plate, Viciedo has a .297/.297/.500 line. Among players with a minimum of 50 PA, his .797 OPS ranks as the fourth-best mark.

In fact only five players since 1901 have completed a season with no walks and an OPS of .750 or greater. Here are some numbers on those guys:

Year Name PA OPS BABIP
1977 Dale Murphy 76 .842 .333
1966 Lee May 75 .840 .390
1948 Don Mueller 82 .827 .364
2010 Dayan Viciedo 74 .797 .328
1984 Victor Mata 76 .776 .379

It is certainly nice for a young player to be on a list with Murphy and May. Even Mueller had a 12-year career and a lifetime .296 AVG.

But while this list is interesting, there are at least two immediate problems trying to use it to forecast the future for Viciedo. First, 2010 is not over and there is still plenty of time for Viciedo to draw a walk. Second, since it has proven impossible to go even 200 PA and not draw a walk, our sample sizes are necessarily small.

So, let’s up the minimum PA level to 400 and instead of zero walks, let’s use a BB% of under 5 percent. Last year in the minors, Viciedo had a 4.3 BB% in Double-A and this year in Triple-A it was 3.1 percent. In the past three seasons, 64 players met these requirements and 22 had an OPS of .750 or above.

Year Name PA OPS BABIP Lifetime BABIP
2009 Miguel Tejada 674 .795 .318 .297
2009 Jose Lopez 653 .766 .270 .281
2009 Robinson Cano 674 .871 .324 .322
2009 A.J. Pierzynski 535 .755 .312 .299
2009 Miguel Olivo 416 .781 .306 .302
2009 Vladimir Guerrero 407 .794 .313 .317
2009 Ichiro Suzuki 678 .851 .384 .357
2008 Bengie Molina 569 .767 .285 .275
2008 Alexei Ramirez 509 .792 .294 .296
2008 Cristian Guzman 612 .786 .337 .306
2008 Jose Lopez 687 .764 .306 .281
2008 Clint Barmes 417 .790 .328 .284
2008 Mike Aviles 441 .833 .357 .326
2008 Corey Hart 657 .759 .293 .308
2008 Garret Anderson 593 .758 .314 .311
2008 Ryan Doumit 465 .858 .333 .301
2007 Kenji Johjima 513 .755 .289 .270
2007 Brandon Phillips 702 .816 .304 .287
2007 Mark Grudzielanek 486 .772 .337 .322
2007 Khalil Greene 659 .759 .274 .275
2007 Xavier Nady 470 .805 .318 .313
2007 Freddy Sanchez 653 .784 .328 .321

The vast majority of these are middle infielders, with 12 of our 22 listed above being either 2B or SS. Five more are catchers. Only five played at a non-premium defensive position and none of those were a 3B like Viciedo. Still, let’s look at those five players.

Guerrero – Known as a free swinger, Guerrero has a lifetime 8.6 BB% and 2009 is the only time in his career that his rate slipped under 5 percent.

Ichiro – Similar to Guerrero, Ichiro is consistently above a 5.0 BB%. Last year was the first time since his debut season in this country that Ichiro failed to reach that plateau. Lifetime he has a 6.3 percent mark.

Hart – Lifetime BB% of 6.7 and 2008 was a career low and the only time he fell below our 5.0 threshold. Hart’s OPS was 55 points below his lifetime mark this season.

Anderson – His 2008 BB% was right around his 4.7 percent career average. Six other times in his career, Anderson had at least 400 PA, a BB% less than 5 and an OPS greater than .749. His best year was 2003 when he had a 4.6 BB% and a wOBA of .371 and his best fantasy season was 2000 when he hit .286 with 35 HR and 117 RBIs.

Nady – A lifetime 5.9 BB%, Nady enjoyed one of the two best seasons of his career in a year where he had his lowest walk rate in seven seasons with at least 50 PA. Generally, he walked a little more and was less productive overall than he was in 2007.

The complete lack of walks we are witnessing from Viciedo this year is unusual but not unprecedented. Given the lack of walks, his overall production is quite impressive. Recent history shows Anderson as the best-case scenario for Viciedo. But even Anderson had better walk rates than Viciedo. In his last full season in the minors, Anderson had a 5.2 BB% and in 2,259 PA in the minors, Anderson had a 5.1 BB%. Viciedo has a 3.9 BB% in 795 PA in the minors to go along with his 0.0 mark in the majors.