The Hot
Billy Wagner, Atlanta
It was a great week for Wagner, who saved four games in as many tries and gave up just one hit in 4.0 innings. He didn’t walk anyone and he struck out five batters. The greats truly do get better with age. Wagner has a strikeout rate of 13.62 K/9 and hitters are batting just .163 against him.

Huston Street, Colorado
It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to discuss Street. He’s finally healthy and hasn’t missed a beat. The veteran closer saved two games last week and also picked up a win. He allowed one run on three hits over 5.0 innings of work and struck out four batters. Keep an eye on his slider (out-pitch), though. It hasn’t been as sharp.

The Not
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati
Cordero has been near the top of the saves leader board all season but he’s rarely dominated. He went 2-for-3 in saves this past week and got beat up a bit. The former Ranger gave up two runs in 2.2 innings of work, thanks to two hits and four walks. Cordero has walked batters in four straight games and we’re seeing significantly-increased fly-ball rates, which suggests he’s tired and elevating his pitches.

Francisco Rodriguez, New York
It was a bad week to be named “Francisco.” Rodriguez battled his control this past week and walked four batters in 2.1 innings. He also allowed four hits and gave up three runs – although almost all the damage was done in one game against Washington. The veteran closer went 1-for-2 in save opportunities and has given up eight hits over his last 4.0 innings (five appearances). Overall, though, he’s still showing much better control this season with a rate of 3.56 (5.03 in ’09).

Keep an Eye On…
Chris Ray, San Francisco
It’s really been an ugly year for Ray, who is trying to recover after some pretty serious injuries. The good news is that his fastball has good velocity and his slider is showing some of its past potential. The downside is that his strikeout rate is just 4.86 K/9 and he has an xFIP of 5.41. The move to the NL could really help and he’s had success early on. This past week he allowed just one hit (and no walks) in 4.2 innings of work. Ray also recorded four Ks. If he keeps this up, he could be in line for some saves when Brian Wilson needs a rest – or he could end up being flipped to a team in need of a cheap closer.

We’ve dissected the Cliff Lee deal like it’s already done, and from both sides of the deal, so let’s continue on in that vein and look at the pitcher that the Mariners are most likely to call up to replace Lee as early as tonight in Seattle. Even if it’s not the Yankees, the Mariners look like they want to trade Lee before the All-Star break to get the most possible value, so Pineda should be up soon.

The green and gray certainly hope that Michael Pineda day doesn’t end up pinata-like, but by all accounts it should be more of a commencement than a trial by fire. The 21-year-old came into the season as the fifth-best Mariner’s prospect by resident maven Marc Hulet’s standards. Here’s what he said at the time:

A beast on the mound at 6’5” 250 lbs, Pineda was let down by his elbow in ’09 as his season was interrupted in mid-May and he did not return until August. The elbow soreness that he experienced is cause for concern going forward, but the right-hander has a bright future ahead of him if he can put the issue behind him. Just 20 in ’09, Pineda posted a 2.73 FIP in 10 appearances (eight starts) in high-A despite playing in a good hitter’s league. He allowed just 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work and showed outstanding control for his age with a walk rate of 1.22 BB/9. His low-90s fastball and good (but inconsistent) slider helped him post a strikeout rate of 9.74 K/9. It will be interesting to see if the organization returns Pineda to high-A in 2010 or pushes him to double-A.

What happened this year is exactly what Mariners fans hoped for and Hulet pointed to as his most important chore this year: Pineda proved he was healthy by not only dominating Double-A on his second attempt (9.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), but by also mowing down Triple-A hitters after a promotion (12.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9). He looks ready to go.

In fact, looking at his career numbers (8.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9), it might be tempting to label him a control artist with okay stuff, but it has been his work at the higher levels, and this year, which has pushed him into elite territory as a prospect. If the rankings were to come out today, he might just be first, if only because his lowest strikeout rate above Double-A was this year’s 9.1 at Double-A.

As for how he might fare in the bigs, there are two minor pink flags to consider. First, Pineda did have the elbow injury last year, so he didn’t accrue many innings, and only put up 138.1 innings combined in 2008. He’s already at 96 innings this year, and 120% of 138.1 is 165. Even if this is no hard cap on his innings, it’s reasonable to assume that he won’t put in another 100 innings in the second half and will have his innings limited at some point.

The other minor flaw in his repertoire has been the slight tendency towards fly balls as he’s risen in the minor leagues. His overall groundball percentage is decent (46%), but this year, the numbers haven’t looked as good. This year, 42.3% of his balls have guzzled grass, and at each stop from high-A to Triple-A, his groundball percentage has dropped. A number like his Triple-A groundball percentage (36.6%) would be a problem in the major leagues. Even this pink flag has its own caveat, however, as SafeCo is a safe haven for flyballers. According to StatCorner, the park has a 93 park factor for home runs by right-handers, and that number drops to 87 for lefties.

Given the lack of offense behind him, and the chance that the Mariners limit his pitches as well as his innings, Pineda does not make for a good choice for wins. On the other hand, the park should help him continue to develop, and nothing terrible leaps out from his pristine numbers. He’s a strong pickup in deeper leagues, and if he performs well in his first start against a good offense from New York, he’ll even be relevant in mixed leagues for his strikeouts and ratios alone.

After last night’s six-inning, five run beat down at the hand of the Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins righty Scott Baker holds an unimpressive 4.87 ERA. He’s also got a sub-.500 record, winning seven games and coming up short eight times. Those superficial numbers have led some fantasy folks to give Baker the boot — his ownership rate in Yahoo leagues is down to 81 percent. Take closer look at Baker’s season, and you’ll see a starter pitching well but getting dinged by a combination of poor luck and lumbering outfielders.

In 109 innings pitched, the 28-year-old has struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings and has dished out just 1.57 walks per nine frames. In terms of punch outs and free passes, Baker is actually exceeding his pre-season projections — CHONE predicted 6.98 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9, while ZiPS had 7.03 K/9 and 2.07 BB/9 for the former Oklahoma State Cowboy.

Baker’s plate discipline stats are right in line with his career averages. He’s getting swinging strikes 10.1%, while his career rate is 9.9%. Opponents are making contact against Baker 81.1% of the time. His career rate is 81.2%. Baker’s pounding the strike zone, placing 55.4% of his offerings over the plate (54.8% career average), and he’s getting a first pitch strike 65.4% of the time (60.9% career average). His outside swing percentage, relative to the league average, is about the same as usual.

Why is Baker’s ERA so high then? One factor is that he’s surrendering 1.4 home runs per nine innings pitched. Baker is an extreme fly ball pitcher, getting grounders just 35.3% this season and 33.9% during his career. He’s going to give up more homers than most. But even so, Baker has been a bit unlucky this season — 12.1% of the fly balls he has given up have left the yard, compared to a 9.6% career rate and the 11% MLB average.

Also, his BABIP sits at .335. Some will immediately point to Baker’s elevated line drive rate — 23.2% in 2010. It’s true that batted balls classified at line drives typically fall for hits 72-73% of the time, so that’s certainly a factor. But the more important question at this point may be, is that LD rate likely to persist? Line drive rate isn’t an especially stable metric, and there’s little else to suggest that Baker is suddenly getting hit much harder than usual.

Another explanation is Minnesota’s outfield defense, which can kindly be described as stationary when some combination of Delmon Young, Jason Kubel are Michael Cuddyer are manning the outfield corners. Twins fly catchers have a collective -6.8 UZR/150 this season. Young’s career UZR/150 in the outfield is -12, Kubel’s is -18.3 and Cuddyer’s is -6.5. Denard Span has a career -5.3 UZR/150 in center field, but he has rated as a plus defender in the outfield corners (+11.1 UZR/150) and he should rate batter in the middle garden over a larger sample.

As a fly ball pitcher, Baker may be disproportionately affected by sluggish outfield D. Even so, it’s near impossible to believe that the dramatic spike in his fly ball BABIP is solely the result of poor defense:

Baker’s BABIP by batted ball type

Baseball-Reference has somewhat different data for Baker — it shows his overall BABIP as .327. So, what I’m about to do here won’t match up perfectly with the BIS data on Baker’s player page. B-R shows that Twins outfielders have converted 83.4% of fly balls put in play into outs this season. Let’s say Baker had that same rate. B-R has Baker with 131 in-play fly balls this season, 28 of which have fallen for hits. If Baker had a .166 BABIP on fly balls instead of his actual .214 mark, he would have 22 hits given up on in-play fly balls. Baker has given up 107 total hits on balls put in play, out of 327. If he had 101 hits on balls put in play instead, his BABIP would be .309. Even accounting for Minnesota’s laggardly outfield leather, Baker has been unlucky.

As a fly ball pitcher backed by corner outfielders with limited range, Baker’s not in an ideal spot. Still, this guy’s better than his current surface stats suggest. Perhaps Baker won’t match the 3.72 xFIP that he currently totes, but he should be able to post a low-four’s ERA in the second half.

After a sluggish start, Jake Peavy has pitched near the level that should have been expected during his first full season on the South Side of Chicago. In the DH league and residing in a park in which more fly balls become souvenirs, Peavy has 7.82 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 107 innings. Peavy may well be done for the year, however, as he suffered a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. With Peavy shelved, the White Sox may turn to top pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson hasn’t been named the guy to take Peavy’s scheduled Sunday start yet, but the club did pull him off the Futures Game roster.

Hudson, 23, was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2008 draft. Along with 13th-rounder Dexter Carter (who was actually part of the Peavy swap with San Diego), Hudson gave the White Sox a pair of sleeper prospects from Old Dominion. At the time Hudson was selected, Baseball America noted his sturdy 6-4, 220 pound frame frame, low-90’s velocity and promising secondary stuff. They did voice some concern about his throwing motion — Hudson was described as having “a long arm stroke in the back and a whipping sidearm motion through his release point,” which BA said led to life on his fastball but also inconsistent command.

After picking apart younger players in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League during the summer of 2008 (11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 69.2 IP), Hudson made his full-season debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2009. He didn’t stay there long, though — the right-hander zipped through Chicago’s farm system, appearing and dominating in the High-A Carolina League, Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

In 147.1 combined frames, Hudson whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, walked 2.1 per nine, served up 0.3 HR/9 and posted a 2.29 FIP. According to Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 2.90. Hudson’s overall line equated to a 3.60 major league FIP, per the same site. In September, Hudson completed his meteoric rise by reaching the big leagues. He pitched 18 innings for the White Sox, with a 14/9 K/BB ratio and a 5.62 xFIP.

Following that ’09 season, Hudson earned some prospect accolades. Baseball America named him the 66th-best prospect in the game, praising his 91-93 MPH heat and above-average changeup, while also mentioning that his low-80’s slider showed some promise (he also mixes in the occasional slow curve). John Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, calling Hudson a personal favorite.

With Freddy Garcia re-signing with the Pale Hose and the rest of the team’s starters remaining healthy (until now), Hudson has spent the entire season back at Triple-A Charlotte. Logging 93.1 innings, he’s got 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 2.90. Hudson’s work with the Knights translates to a 4.51 big league FIP, with 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. CHONE’s updated rest-of-season projection for Hudson is similar — a 4.60 neutralized ERA, with 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9

The draft steal has shown an impressive ability to fool hitters, and he has shown solid control to boot. What’s concerning for fantasy owners is how Hudson’s fly ball tendencies (42.1 GB% in ’09, 40.7 GB% this season) will play in U.S. Cellular Field. If he does indeed get the major league call, expect Hudson punch out batters at a healthy clip, keep the walks at a reasonable level and serve up his far share of homers.

This is article seven in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

If liked my preseason piece on the different types of owners, this is right up your alley.

The Sniper
The Sniper rarely makes an offer, but when he does, it’s dynamite. Reminds some of a cautious poker player, who must have a hand if he raises. He does his research, knows your team, and will always give you something to think about. If he offers a deal, he expects to get it done.

The Master of Propaganda
This trader also goes by his scientific name of “Das Goebbels”. Never offers a trade without writing at least a paragraph in the comments. Never includes any bad stats about the players he gives up, yet can always find the flaws in the players he is receiving.

The Gunner
Can’t go a day without studying an opponents roster looking for a trade opportunity. He’ll make an offer to every team when he wants to trade a player, and won’t stop until he gets a deal done. While he’ll annoy some, others will love him. Because of his willingness to deal, other owners may begin to give him first shot at players they are looking to deal.

The Con Artist
A deadly combination of The Gunner and The Master of Propaganda. Frequently tries to deal players if he finds out they’re injured before others do. His trades tend to get vetoed, and he always complains. His league mates hate him, but any new team won’t know any better. He’s been kicked out of countless keeper leagues, but dominates in newly formed public leagues.

The Mule
The most stubborn owner in the league. If he doesn’t like a deal, he will never make a counter-offer, instead forcing his counterpart to wonder where the deal went wrong. Playing the role of The Mule has shown to be a great negotiating technique when utilized properly.

The Counter-Attacker
Rarely initiates trade talks, electing to sit back and let others come to him. Once he receives an offer, he runs with it and tries to get a deal done. A combination of The Sniper and Counter-Attacker have been seen roaming the world at times, but are now only bred in captivity.

We’ve updated both the shortstops and the second basemen fairly recently, so it’s time to take a look at a deep-league middle infield option. Full disclosure: I own Mark Ellis in the Blog Wars fantasy league put on by FanGraphs user/commenter MDS or Million Dollar Sleeper. So this is a completely self-serving look at whether or not I have ‘solved’ my middle infield situation. I hope you get some use out of it, hah.

First, the good news. The batting average looks safe. Not only is Ellis walking about the same as ever (8.8% 2010, 8.3% career) and striking out a little less (13.4% 2010, 15.3% career), but his BABIP is neutral as well (.309 2010, .290 career). He’s reaching a little much (29.8% 2010, 21.3% career), but making the same amount of contact overall (85.7% 2010, 85.5% career). We also have to remember that the league-wide reach rate (28.6%) is up big from last year (25.1%), so his absolute reach rate, or difference between his reach rate and the league reach rate, has gone down this year from last year. He hasn’t changed much.

The overall plate discipline package looks like one that is about average everywhere except in one spot. Ellis can make contact with pitches in the zone at an above average rate. How’s that for a niche – it should go on page one of his agent’s presentation. His zone contact percentage rate has been steadily and significantly above-average across his career, and this year is no different (96.2% zone contact, 88.1% league-wide average). With his average walk rate in hand, and above-average ability to make contact on balls in the zone, Ellis should always put up a middling batting average when his BABIP is neutral. His career numbers in those regards (.290 career BABIP, .266 career batting average) provide good sign posts as they usually do.

In our league, which sports 15 owners and 31 roster spots (including CI, MI, and five OFs), any middle infielder that starts and puts up a decent batting average is ownable. For example, the best MI available on the wire, ranked by ownership, are Yuniesky Betancourt (74 wRC+), Omar “All-Star” Infante (93 wRC+), and Adam Kennedy (84 wRC+). That’s a craptacular grab bag of mediocrity, and Ellis’ 98 wRC+ stacks up well against all of them.

On the other hand, the almost-regular Infante could put up a better batting average (.268 career, but over .293 over the past three years) even though his BABIP right now (.370) is propping up his current average. The line separating Ellis from meh waiver wire fill-in at a position (like Infante) and an actual strong pickup is populated with counting stats. Can he put up some power or speed?

Short answer: not really. His career ISO (.139) is below-average for all of the MLB (usually around .155), and would be just about average for a batting-average qualifying second baseman this year (.138). He may barely crack double-digit home runs in an average year, but probably not this year. He’s putting a career-low percentage of his balls in the air (34.7% this year, 42.1% career), and yet he’s also sporting a career-low HR/FB rate (3.8% this year, 6.9% career). But maybe his 2010 ISO (.081), which is not yet accrued in a significant-enough sample size, will regress towards his career number and allow him to crack 10 home runs.

If he was a speedster, the power would be forgivable from a fantasy standpoint. And Ellis’ last two season have produced his career-high stolen base totals (14 and 10 respectively), so maybe Ellis will actually crack double-digits in that category. His speed scores (3.3 this year, 4.7 career, 5.0 average) don’t scream ‘speed demon,’ but at least he’s successful when he goes (75%) so he should continue to put up the odd steal. He’s batting seventh, so he’ll have some chances to steal in front of poor batters, but he’s no speedster at the top of the lineup. On the other hand, the overall suckitude of the A’s lineup (11th in the AL in runs) will keep his contributions in runs and RBI down.

Still, Mark Ellis is really just a filler. In a league as deep as ours, it’s important to have at least an average major league starter in each of your positions, and Ellis can be that. His lack of upside in the counting stats, however, soften any further impact he might have.

Some old and new blood for your team…

Jason Giambi | 1B | Rockies | 1% owned

The underperforming Todd Helton is now on the shelf with a back issue, opening up Colorado’s first base spot for Giambi, the former fantasy megastar. Giambi still has the same skills he has throughout his entire career, though his power hasn’t shown up as much with infrequent playing time. He’s still an on-base monster (.382 OBP despite a .234 AVG), and I suspect that his 7.7% HR/FB will go up with more at-bats. He’s going to platoon with Brad Eldred, so just make sure you sit him against lefthanders.

Daniel Hudson | SP | White Sox | 3%

Yanked from the Futures Game roster because of the injury to Jake Peavy, Hudson will assume Chicago’s now vacant rotation spot for the foreseeable future. The 23-year-old shot up the ladder last season (five levels including MLB) and contributed 18.2 rather forgettable innings to the ChiSox. Hudson posted a 3.47 ERA with 10.4 K/9 at Triple-A this year, and really the only problem is that he’s homer prone (1.3 HR/9), not exactly an ideal trait considering Chicago’s ball park. He could contribute a low-4.00’s ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way, but he’s not an every start guy. You’re going to have to pick your spots. Hudson starts against the Royals (and Zack Greinke) on Sunday before the All Star break.

Ownerships rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Though he’s still just 26 years old, Fausto Carmona has played many parts during the course of his pro career. The 6-4, 230 pound righty, signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2000, once was a top prospect — his ground ball-generating sinker and impressive control (career 1.6 BB/9 in the minors) led Baseball America to name him the 76th-best prospect in the game prior to 2004. After a brief bullpen cameo with the Indians in 2006, Carmona blossomed into a front-line starter, racking up 4.2 WAR in 2007. But that success was short-lived — with those pesky midges seemingly stealing his ability to throw strikes, Carmona’s walk rate soared in 2008 and 2009. He posted just 1.3 WAR over that period, missing significant time with a left hip injury in ’08 and earning a punitive demotion to Triple-A in ’09.

In 2010, however, Carmona looks to be back on track. He’s got a 3.69 ERA in 109.2 innings, and he’ll head to Anaheim next week as Cleveland’s representative in the All-Star game. Is Fausto back? Digging a little deeper reveals a mixed bag of results — he’s clearly pitching better this season than in 2008 and 2009, but he’s not approaching that halcyon 2007 level of performance.

Back in ’07, Carmona supplemented a modest K rate (5.73 K/9) with excellent control (2.55 BB/9) and ground balls by the bucketful (64.3 GB%). The final product? A 3.88 xFIP in 215 frames. Carmona put plenty of pitches within the strike zone (51.4%, compared to the 50.3% average that season), but he still managed a league-average swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. In 2008 and 2009, though, Carmona struggled to locate his pitches and got fewer batters to swing and miss:

In 246 combined innings in ’08 and ’09, Carmona struck out 5.01 batters per nine and issued 5.12 BB/9. His ground ball rate, while still strong, declined to 59.2%. With fewer whiffs and worm burners, as well as a walk rate that doubled compared to 2007, Carmona posted a cringe-worthy 5.05 xFIP.

This season, Carmona has improved — somewhat. His punch out rate has actually fallen again (4.68 K/9), and he’s getting swinging strikes just 6.3%. His ground ball rate (58.1%) is below that mid-sixties total from ’07 and comes in under his average over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, too (even so, Carmona’s GB% is fourth-highest among MLB starters). But most importantly, he has pared his walk rate down to 3.2 per nine innings pitched, while putting an above-average number of pitches within the strike zone (49.8%, compared to the 47.1% MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Carmona’s cut in free passes dished out is the result a sharper sinker. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Carmona threw his fastball for a strike 60.2% of the time over the 2008-2009 seasons (62-64% MLB average), with batters swinging at 42.6% of the fastballs he threw (42-45% MLB average). So far in 2010, he’s throwing his fastball for a strike 63.9%, with hitters offering at 45.3% of those pitches.

Carmona’s xFIP is 4.54, certainly serviceable but not nearly as shiny as his current 3.69 ERA. His BABIP is .274, compared to a .299 career BABIP, and his home run per fly ball rate is 6.9% (10.7% career average, right around the MLB average). For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a 4.55 FIP for Fausto. It’s likely that once Carmona is done rubbing elbows with baseball’s elite at the Midsummer Classic, he’ll give up more hits on balls in play and won’t see as many fly balls die at the warning track.

This is article six in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Long-term Relationships
This is the main difference between keeper and redraft leagues. If you get deep into talks with an owner and do something to piss them off, your chances of dealing with them in the future are diminished. In keeper leagues, you should be much more diligent and explain why you are rejecting every deal.

2. Buy Low More
I touched on this in my “On BABIP and Buying Low” article a couple of weeks back, but I’ll elaborate more. When you sense some regression is on the horizon, you have a much better chance of getting a good deal in keeper leagues. In redraft leagues, the player may never regress, and your stuck with a guy you have no use for. However, if you are certain the player is better than he’s shown, you have a much better chance to cash in if you’re in a keeper league. Even if they don’t return to normal during the current season, you could always hold onto them and wait for next year.

3. Weighing Next Year vs. This Year
I lied, this is a bigger difference than #1. While redraft leagues only have to worry about what the player will do the rest of the season, keeper league owners need to weigh a players current performance, their future performance, and draft pick value. For example, if you can make a deal to get a player you find to be almost as valuable this year, but will be cheaper to keep in the future, you need to pull the trigger. Don’t get carried away and deal everyone away for cheap keepers, but keep that factor in mind when accepting a deal.