Archive for July, 2010

Getting to Second Base

Getting to (a) second base(man) in fantasy (baseball) can be tough. (Especially in seventh grade.) Only Robinson Cano is the top forty this year, so more than a few fantasy managers are looking for help at the position. Here are a trio of guys that could be useful. Thanks to Mike Axisa and Zach Sanders for the idea.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore (65% owned)
Much has been made of Robert’s three-year decline in stolen base totals, and his back troubles. But, as is often the case with veterans, he’s also on a three-year increase in ISO. It wouldn’t be incredible for him to hit double-digits in both home runs and steals in the second half. It seems unbelievable, but so did getting to second base at some point in your life. He does have five hits in seven plate appearances so far on his rehab stint. Of course, all but one of the hits were singles, but if you get him off the wire, you won’t be complaining.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (35%)
It’s been a tough year for Beckham, and though we thought that maybe it was too early to give up on him way back when, it probably was best if his owners dropped him then… and maybe picked him up now. It got a little hairy when Brent Lillibridge (with his .643 BABIP (!) and limited upside (.268/.348/.409 in the minor leagues)) was starting over him, but a little injury to the aged one, Omar Vizquel, seems to have opened up some room for Beckham. He’s been starting regularly in July at least, and at some point his BABIP (.255) has to embiggen. Maybe the fact that he’s been hitting the ball in the air more in July (42.9% in July, 35.7% for the year) bodes well for him. He definitely has more upside than any other second or third baseman on the White Sox roster now.

Neil Walker, Pirates (5% owned)
Walker? No, I wanted to… nevermind. Walker is putting up a mediocre .275/.318/.423 line, but there’s one nice thing about it. It’s sustainable, or at least it appears so. Walker got his strikeout rate to a manageable level (22.5%) which is in line with his minor league numbers (17.1%) and doesn’t scream ‘poor batting average.’ His .330 BABIP might come down, but a corresponding increase in his power might help his average stay around the same. He is sporting a .148 ISO, and had a .168 number in the minor leagues, and even that ISO was higher over the last couple of years. In deeper leagues, you might just be looking for a place holder that doesn’t kill you in any category. Walker might just be that guy.


Waiver Wire: July 15th

Two blasts from the past that could give your team a little nudge in the right direction…

Freddy Garcia | SP | White Sox | 13% owned

You have to hand it to the now 35-year-old Garcia. The guy made just 23 starts over the last three seasons because of shoulder issues, but he’s returned this year and hasn’t missed a single start. The former Randy Johnson trade bait has fired off ten quality starts in his last 12 outings, and has pitched to a 3.25 ERA since late-May. No, the season peripherals don’t line up (5.57 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9), but they have been better during this recent run of success (6.15 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9).

(R) ZiPS understandably predicts just eight more starts with a 4.93 ERA (4.61 FIP) and 5.79 K/9 the rest of the season, but Chicago’s schedule features 13 consecutive games against the Mariners and Athletics following this weekend’s four game set with Minnesota, so there’s definitely an opportunity to steal some wins here. Plus the ChiSox never seem to lose these days (25-5 over the last month or so). If nothing else, recent history is on his side.

Corey Patterson | OF | Orioles | 10%

Yeah yeah yeah, call me hypocrite, I deserve it. Admitting your mistakes is part of the fantasy game, we’ve all been there. In my defense, we’ve reached the point of the season where legitimate bargains are nowhere to be found on the waiver wire, replaced by the usual dreck of injury fill-ins and the occasional player on a hot streak. Patterson is one of those guys on a hot streak.

Since mid-June, Patterson has fashioned a more than solid .333/.362/.468 batting line from atop Baltimore’s lineup, and best of all he’s stolen ten bags in that time. His season BABIP sits at .361, and during the recent hot streak it was an unsustainable .416, but there’s no reason we can’t ride this thing out, especially when there are stolen bases involved. (R) ZiPS calls for 204 plate appearances of utter mediocrity the rest of the way (.249/.288/.389, eight steals), but if he can chip in a half-dozen steals and not kill your AVG over the next week or two, what’s not to like?

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.


Morrow’s Promising June

Brandon Morrow is already a decent fantasy starter, due to the high number of strikeouts he gets owners every outing. However, he tends to walk too many guys, which can lead to serious problems. I don’t care what NERD says, Brandon Morrow is not a fun guy to watch pitch if you have an interest in the outcome of his starts.

But, during June, Brandon Morrow was super awesome. Morrow pitched 33 innings, striking out 34 while walking only 10. Now, a guy walking 10 batters a month isn’t exactly outstanding, but for Morrow it actually is. His June walk rate was 2.73 batters every nine innings, compared to over 5 batters every nine innings in April and May.

I was wondering what Morrow was doing differently in June, if anything, so I decided to talk to Dave Allen, our resident pitch f/x guru. He told me, and I quote:

I can’t really find anything in the pitchf/x data to indicate how he dropped his ball rate so much. His Zone%, OSwing% and the other likely candidates are all very similar. I also don’t see much difference between where his pitches are ending up in the zone in June compared to May/April. I think it might be just a small sample size thing…Also with just 33 innings it is hard to find tons of patterns in the data.

I find this to be strange, but I’m going to trust Dave on this one. Just looking on the surface of the situation, it makes sense. Morrow’s Strike% was normal, so he wasn’t pounding the zone any more than usual.

Another interesting aspect of Morrow’s June was his batted ball types. Morrow, a flyball pitcher, got over 52% ground balls during the month of June. His rate on the year is 42.5%, and he’s reverted back to his old form in his two July starts.

In his first start of July, Morrow struck out seven while walking one batter, in six innings of work. While he struggled against the Red Sox this past weekend, Morrow has at least shown the potential to limit the free passes. Keep an eye on him, because if this trend continues, he’ll be worth a pickup.


FIP Challenge 2010

Last year at the All-Star break I did a piece that collected all the pitchers who had a difference of at least 0.50 between their FIP and xFIP. At the end of the season I collected the 2nd half ERA for each pitcher in the survey to see if FIP or xFIP did a better job of predicting the results. The raw results favored xFIP, as that metric did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers. However, FIP did a better job of predicting how the best pitchers in the group would fare.

The results were definitely interesting, but it was hard to make any proclamations off one year of data. So, now is the time to assemble this year’s chart of pitchers with a discrepancy of at least half a run between their FIP and xFIP. Like last year, this list was crafted by hand, so please let me know if you see any omissions. I am looking for pitchers who had 70 or more innings pitched at the All-Star break.

Name HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
Paulino 1.9 4.40 3.25 4.60
Liriano 2.5 3.86 2.18 2.97
A. Sanchez 3.4 3.66 3.46 4.52
Buchholz 3.6 2.45 3.45 4.26
J. Johnson 3.8 1.70 2.31 3.06
Matsuzaka 4.1 4.56 3.83 4.98
J. Santana 4.5 2.98 3.62 4.69
Vargas 4.7 3.09 3.62 4.84
Verlander 5.3 3.82 3.11 3.89
Zito 5.3 3.76 3.91 4.79
Jimenez 5.4 2.20 3.13 3.71
Gorzelanny 5.4 3.16 3.26 3.92
Danks 5.6 3.29 3.41 4.13
Hanson 5.6 4.13 3.26 4.02
Cain 5.7 3.34 3.82 4.72
Kershaw 5.7 2.96 3.11 3.79
C. Lee 5.8 2.64 2.58 3.34
Wilson 6.1 3.35 4.14 4.71
L. Hernandez 6.2 3.37 4.02 4.71
Fister 6.3 3.09 3.75 4.38
Carmona 6.3 3.64 4.08 4.61
Floyd 6.5 4.20 3.28 3.78
Buehrle 6.6 4.24 4.16 4.85
Morrow 6.7 4.86 3.42 3.93
Cueto 6.9 3.42 3.91 4.45
Lackey 6.9 4.78 4.39 4.98
Correia 15.7 5.26 4.82 4.22
Hamels 15.2 3.78 4.53 3.85
Blackburn 14.8 6.40 5.89 5.14
Millwood 14.8 5.77 5.03 4.32
Karstens 14.5 5.42 4.88 5.50
Duke 14.5 5.49 4.89 4.36
Shields 14.3 4.87 4.11 3.55
Bannister 14.0 5.56 5.26 4.69
Wolf 13.9 4.56 5.81 5.24
Davis 13.7 4.69 5.69 5.10
Nolasco 13.7 4.55 4.39 3.84
Kennedy 13.7 4.12 4.83 4.31

This year there are 38 pitchers in our survey. Five pitchers are repeats from a season ago – Kershaw, Lee, Blackburn, Verlander and Bannister. However both Blackburn and Bannister had HR/FB rates below average last year at the break while they are both above average this year. Kershaw, Lee and Verlander are the only ones who “beat” the average HR/FB rates in both seasons. As far as predicting 2nd half ERA goes, Kershaw and Lee were wins for FIP while xFIP did a better job of predicting Verlander.

To determine which metric is better at forecasting 2nd half ERA, I am going to take the midpoint between their FIP and xFIP and compare it to their real life ERA in the second half of the season.

Using Kennedy as an example, 4.57 is the midpoint between his FIP and xFIP. So, if Kennedy’s ERA in the second half is 4.44, I will count that as a “win” for xFIP. On the flip side, if Kennedy’s second half ERA is 4.66, I will count that as a “win” for FIP.

Like last year, I will check in on this list after the end of the regular season.


Waiver Wire: July 14th

Aaron Cunningham, Padres (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

Cunningham, 24, has been traded as many times (three) as he has gone deep in the major leagues. The Chicago White Sox originally picked the righty batter in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but swapped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for INF Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then traded Cunningham to the Oakland A’s (along with LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, OF Carlos Gonzalez and 1B/DH Chris Carter) for RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson in December of ’07. This past winter, Oakland sent him to San Diego (with OF Scott Hairston) for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and INF Eric Sogard.

That lengthy transaction history tells you two things about Cunningham — he’s a potentially useful player, but his talents aren’t so great as to make parting with him unbearable. His career minor league line is .304/.376/.484 in 2,300+ PA, including .296/.366/.475 in 667 PA at the Triple-A level. In the PCL, Cunningham has shown decent power (.179 ISO), but his strike-zone control hasn’t been especially sharp (8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%). Hot start with the Padres aside, his major league projections are tepid — .240/.298/.371 for the rest of 2010 according to ZiPS, and .257/.322/.413 per CHONE. Cunningham has been filling in for Will Venable (on the DL with a back injury), and his strong showing in a few weeks’ worth of games might excite some. But he looks like a fringe starter — the sort of player with whom teams play roster hot potato.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (17%)

The 2010 season is Pennington’s chance to prove he’s capable of more than merely keeping the shortstop spot warm until Grant Green’s big league-ready. A first-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2005, Pennington pieced together a .263/.362/.358 line in nearly 2,200 minor league plate appearances. The switch-hitter displayed superb plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and he stole bases at a high-percentage clip (83.6%), but his lack of thump (.095 ISO) led to fears that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands at the highest level.

So far, that hasn’t happened — Pennington’s got a career .325 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ in 672 big league PA. This season, the 26-year-old’s batting .264/.333/.392 and walking 9.4% of the time. Pennington will never be a power threat, but his .128 ISO is respectable. He has also nabbed 13 bags in 15 attempts, so he’s adding value once he reaches base. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .260/.331/.362 line. CHONE is less optimistic, at .246/.328/.344.

It’s probably too early to comment on Pennington’s defensive prowess, as he rates poorly by UZR (-7.5 runs per 150 defensive games during his career) and about average according to Total Zone. He might slide over to second long-term, where he’d still have to compete with Jemile Weeks (if Weeks can stay healthy), among others. But for now, Pennington’s good eye and speed make him an option in AL-only leagues.


Who is Closing in Arizona?

In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).

In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’

Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.

Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.

Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?

Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.

Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).

In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!


The Captain’s First Half

In 2008, Derek Jeter endured the worst offensive season of his career. He batted a mild (for him) .300/.363/.408, with a .343 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. That performance, at age 35, led some to question if his best days were behind him. But last season, The Captain made those people (myself included) look very stupid. Jeter hit .334/.406/.465, raising his wOBA to .390 and his wRC+ to 142.

Simply expecting Jeter to replicate that level of hitting in 2010 wouldn’t have been wise, but his pre-season projections were still rock-solid:

ZiPS: .303/.372/.424, .358 wOBA, 120 wRC+
CHONE: .302/.373/.434, .360 wOBA, 122 wRC+

But the 1992 first-round pick from Kalamazoo takes a .274/.340/.392 line into tonight’s All-Star game, with a .328 wOBA and a 104 wRC+. Why has Jeter fallen short of those forecasts so far?

In terms of walks, whiffs and power, Jeter is pretty close his pre-season CHONE and ZiPs projections. He’s taking a free pass 8.2% of the time (8.8% ZiPS, 8.9% CHONE), striking out 14.8% (15.1% ZiPS, 15.3% CHONE) and he’s got a .118 Isolated Power (.121 ZiPS, .132 CHONE). Jeter’s batting average on balls in play, however, is lower than anticipated — his BABIP is .303, while ZiPS had a .340 projection and CHONE had a .338 mark.

The first thing that jumps out when you look at Jeter’s batted ball profile is his ground ball rate. The Bombers’ shortstop has always had a high rate of grounders (56.6% dating back to 2002), but Jeter’s chopping the ball into the grass two-thirds of the time in 2010. He has the highest GB% among qualified MLB hitters. Jeter’s BABIP on grounders was well above average in 2007 and 2008, but fell last season. He’s getting fewer hits on grounders than the average AL batter for the second year in a row:

Jeter’s Speed Score has remained in the 4.6-5 range during this period (the MLB average is slightly over five), but his rate of infield hits has declined — 9.6% in ’07, 8.4% in ’08, 7.1% in ’09 and 6.8% in 2010.

His BABIP decline on grounders wasn’t a huge deal last season, as Jeter got scores of hits on balls put in play when he hit a fly ball or a line drive. But this year, his BABIP on fly balls and liners has come back down to Earth:

So, Jeter’s hitting more grounders than ever, and he’s not getting many hits on those grounders as he once did. And, unlike last season, his BABIP on fly balls and liners isn’t sky-high. Jeter’s still going to the opposite field as well as anybody in the game, despite hitting more ground balls that way:

But his performance when pulling the ball or hitting up the middle has been lousy, with a sharp decrease in BABIP and more grounders hit in both directions:

According to this expected BABIP calculator, Jeter’s rate of HR, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, grounders and pop ups suggests his BABIP should be .339. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS also projects improvement, though not as much — a .325 BABIP. He’ll probably fare better on fly balls and liners in the months to come. But the Captain’s ground ball rate and BABIP on those grounders should be monitored during the second half. Is his speed on the wane? If Jeter continues to scorch the Earth but doesn’t leg out more hits on those ground balls, his days as a .300+ hitter could be over. Of course, I’ve been wrong about him before.


Promotions: Wood & Maloney

The first place Cincinnati Reds called up a pair of lefthanded starters over the last two weeks or so to replace the injured Homer Bailey (following a Sam LeCure cameo) and Aaron Harang, and both bring some fantasy potential.

The first, and more permanent of the two is 23-year-old Travis Wood, who grabbed some headlines over the weekend by taking a perfect game into the 9th against the Phillies. His minor league career consists of lots of strikeouts (8.4 K/9), a good amount of ground balls (43.1% ground balls), and more recently very few walks (2.6 BB/9 over the last two seasons), three skills you want every young pitcher to possess. Wood has already made three starts for the Reds, sandwiching a pair of gems around one clunker.

The second of the two is 26-year-old Matt Maloney, who was acquired in the Kyle Lohse deal a few years back. His minor league career is similar to Wood’s in terms of strikeouts (8.7 K/9) and grounders (42.8%), though his track record of good control (2.7 BB/9) is quite a bit longer. In seven career big league starts over the last two seasons (two this year), Maloney has seen his strikeout rate dip, which is not unprecedented.

Baseball America rated Wood and Maloney as the team’s 7th and 8th best prospects coming into the season, saying both were back of the rotation candidates that lacked the pure stuff to be more. I’m a sucker for strikeout lefties, and both of these guys have the ability to post low- to mid-4.00’s ERA with enough wins and enough strikeouts to be serviceable fifth or sixth starters on a fantasy squad. I wouldn’t start them against high caliber offenses, but the NL Central offers enough weak competition to make the duo useful for the duration.

Thirteen of Cincinnati’s first 19 post-All Star break games are against the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, and Pirates, so there’s some decent matchups coming up. Wood is owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues, Maloney still 0%.


C.J. Wilson the Starter

After enjoying a career year pitching out of the ‘pen for the Rangers in 2009, C.J. Wilson was shifted to the starting rotation this past spring. Prior to April 8th, 2010, the 29-year-old hadn’t taken a big league mound as a starter since August 18th of 2005. Strictly a reliever from 2006-2009, Wilson whiffed 8.94 batters per nine innings, walked 4.26 per nine and had a 51.1% ground ball rate. In March, Matt Klaassen theorized about Wilson’s value taking the ball every fifth day instead of pitching in short bursts. The whole article is well worth a read, but here are a couple tidbits:

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

However, Klaassen also noted Wilson’s increased ground ball rate in 2009, as well his improved performance against right-handed pitching:

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.

So far, it looks like Wilson has blown by that modest projection — he holds a 3.35 ERA in 113 innings pitched. But, if you look a little closer, you’ll find some cracks in his seemingly stellar first half. In truth, Wilson has pitched much closer to the level Klaassen forecasted than the lefty’s ERA would indicate.

Navigating lineups multiple times, Wilson’s got 6.53 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 49.5% ground ball rate. As those ratios suggest, Wilson isn’t whiffing a lot of batters or displaying particularly sharp control. Texas’ fifth-rounder in the 2001 draft has a 6.6% swinging strike rate (8.4% MLB average this season), and his contact rate is 83.7% (81% MLB average). Wilson’s getting into hitter’s counts more often that you’d like, throwing first pitch strikes 53.6% (58% MLB average), and he has been about average in terms of putting his offerings over the plate (47.3 Zone%). On pitches out of the zone, Wilson’s garnering swings just 23.4% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

As a starter, Wilson’s using his fastball (down about three ticks in velocity) less than half of the time. He’s going to a high-80’s cutter about 19 percent of the time, a low-80’s slider 12 percent, a low-80’s changeup 13 percent and a mid-70’s curveball on roughly eight percent of his pitches. That cornucopia of pitches has worked wonders against same-handed hitters, but Wilson’s underlying performance against righty hitters leaves much to be desired:

Clearly, Wilson has been fortunate in not yet surrendering a homer to a lefty and in having a microscopic BABIP against them. But he has been pretty effective against LHBs overall. It’s a different story when an opposite-handed batter steps to the plate — Wilson’s often losing the zone against RHBs.

Not that a half-season’s worth of starts should serve as definitive judgment on Wilson’s abilities as a starter, but his peripherals are rather close to what Klaassen predicted. Wilson’s xFIP is nearly 1.4 runs higher than his actual ERA, at 4.71. He has benefitted from a .250 BABIP, seventh-lowest among qualified MLB starters, and he has served up homers on fly balls hit against him just 6.1% of the time. That’s one of the twenty lowest rates among big league starters, and is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers.

If Wilson continues to strike out and walk opponents at a similar clip in the second half, his ERA will almost assuredly rise by a significant margin. There’s also the workload issue to consider — Wilson’s previous career high in innings pitched is 136, and that was at High-A and Double-A back in 2002. Perhaps he’ll handle the increase just fine, but he does have a history of arm ailments (Tommy John in 2003, a biceps strain in 2006, elbow soreness and subsequent surgery to remove a bone spur in 2008, according to the Baseball Injury tool). The point is, we just don’t know.

Given his mild K and walk totals and his entering unchartered territory in terms of innings pitched, Wilson’s a good sell-high candidate. If you can convince an owner that Wilson’s an upper-echelon starter instead of a decent rotation arm with a good deal of risk, now’s the time to make a deal.


Third Base: July 13th

Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the third base position.

Omar Infante | Braves | 8% owned

He may not play everyday, but he makes the most of his time at the plate. He won’t draw you any walks, but his batting average keeps him relevant. In Yahoo leagues, Infante is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. He is a nice plug-n-play guy if you are in daily leagues and check your roster a couple of minutes before games start. Great bench guy in most leagues due to his versatility, and hey, who doesn’t want an All-Star* on their roster?

Chipper Jones | Braves | 56% owned

In the last 30 days, Jones is batting .307 with 3 homers, 11 RBI, and even 2 steals. That’s a great way to enter the AS break for Chipper. He still has more walks than K’s this year, so he’s a stud in OBP leagues. His back flared up again on Friday, and while it’s going to be a constant issue, he played again on Saturday and Sunday. Keep your eye on him as a trade target if he keeps hitting after the break, or as a waiver pickup if he’s available.

Edwin Encarnacion | Blue Jays | 5% owned

After being DFA’d and sent to Triple-A in late June, Encarnacion has been recalled to Toronto and has performed adequately so far. Since coming back up on July 3rd, Encarnacion has hit .310 (BABIP fluke) with a homer. He has good power, and while he’s struck out in all but one game since returning, he’s a good bet to perform well the rest of the year. He’s not worth a pickup in standard leagues, but in SABR (advanced stats leagues) and deep leagues he’s worth a shot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.