Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Any efforts on the part of the Cleveland Indians to trade closer Kerry Wood got a little more difficult on Saturday, as the 33-year-old was placed on the DL with a finger blister. It’s the second time Wood has been sidelined this season, as the erstwhile Cub was shelved until early May with a strained right lat muscle in his back.

Since signing a two-year deal with the Tribe prior to 2009, Wood has earned around 15-$16 million while contributing 0.2 Wins Above Replacement. He was lights-out during his last season in Chicago (11.4 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.07 xFIP, 2.2 WAR), but Wood’s control has been mediocre in Cleveland — he’s got 9.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 4.36 xFIP in 75 innings since transitioning to the AL.

There’s still a chance that he gets traded — Wood could be back before the July 31st deadline, and there’s always the possibility of an August waiver deal. If Wood passes through waivers unclaimed in August, the Indians would be free to trade him to any club. If Wood gets claimed, Cleveland could: A.) revoke the waiver request, B.) make a deal within two business days with the club making the claim or they could C.) let the claiming team take Wood and his salary for a twenty grand fee (thanks, Cots Baseball Contracts and MLBTradeRumors).

With Wood out, Chris Perez is expected to take what save chances the Indians get. The former Hurricane, picked up from the St. Louis Cardinals (along with RHP Jess Todd) in the July 2009 Mark DeRosa deal, is available in nearly four-fifths of Yahoo leagues. Perez’s gleaming ERA and past as a top 100 prospect might lead some to think he’s breaking out in a big way, but the 25-year-old righty remains a work in progress.

In the minors, Perez used his mid-90’s fastball and low-to-mid-80’s slider to rack up 12 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he also issued a whopping six walks per nine frames, leaving him with a good-not-great 3.86 FIP in 113.1 IP. The story has been much the same in 133 big league innings over the 2008-2010 seasons — Perez has punched out over a batter per inning (9.41 K/9), but he has handed out a free pass every other frame (4.53 BB/9). He has also been a fly ball-centric pitcher, getting grounders just 35.7% of the time and serving up 1.15 HR/9. Overall, Perez has a 4.44 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP, a performance that has been exactly replacement-level.

That’s not to say that Perez won’t fare better in the future, but his current 2.62 ERA is based mostly on a .236 BABIP, as opposed to some marked improvement on his part. Perez gets ninth inning responsibilities for now, and he could keep them if Wood is swapped before July 31st or in a later August deal. But, without a change in Perez’s peripheral stats, decline is likely — ZiPS projects 9.64 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

Coco Crisp, Athletics (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

For Covelli Loyce Crisp to be relevant in fantasy circles, he does have to, you know, stay on the field. That has been a problem in recent years — the former Indian, Red Sock and Royal was limited to 215 plate appearances last season because of surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, and he was shelved this season until late May after fracturing his left pinky finger. Then, Crisp strained his right intercostal muscle, costing him another month’s worth of games. Recently, he has been battling a sore left hamstring .

While durability is a serious issue, Crisp does have something to offer owners. The 30-year-old has .372 wOBA in a very small sample (81 PA), with five stolen bases in six tries. Both his ZiPS (.250/.321/.400) and CHONE (.270/.345/.400) projections suggest he’s capable of being adequate offensively, and Crisp still possesses the speed to make some noise once he gets on base. He’s unreliable, but he can help out in the SB department without making outs at a Willy Taveras-like clip.

Brett Myers, Astros (22%)

Myers endured a disastrous 2009 season, missing a big chunk of time following right hip surgery in June and then straining his shoulder upon returning in September. His peripherals weren’t terrible in ten starts and eight relief appearances (6.37 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 4.32 xFIP), but Myers coughed up a mind-boggling 2.29 homers per nine innings — 23.4% of the time a batter hit a fly ball against him, it left the yard. Philly’s 1999 first-rounder had long posted lofty HR/FB rates (15.5% prior to 2010, compared to the 11% MLB average), but that ’09 rate was absurdly high.

Over the winter, the Astros inked Myers to a one-year, $5.1 million deal with a mutual option for the 2011 season. The 29-year-old righty has already earned that cash, and then some — with 2.2 WAR, Myers’ performance has been worth $8.7 million. He has gone to his breaking stuff (a mid-80’s slider and a high-70’s curve) even more than usual this season, and that game plan appears to be working — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers, Myers is throwing his slider for a strike 67.9% of the time (63.5% MLB average), and his curve is getting strikes 62.6% (58% MLB average).

He’s got 6.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and an xFIP of exactly four in 129 innings. That HR/FB figure has plunged to 8.3%. That’s likely going to rise, and with it, so will Myers’ 3.35 ERA. But he’s capable of remaining an above-average starter. CHONE (4.60 neutralized ERA for the rest of the season) is skeptical, but ZiPS projects a 4.25 FIP. I’d lean more toward the latter projection.

It’s summer, it’s the weekend, and you ain’t got stuff to do. Well, maybe you should check that your lineups are set and your bench doesn’t have dead wood on it before you head out into the sun. You owe your fantasy teams that much at least.

Chris Perez, Cleveland (20% owned)
It’s your last chance to speculate on saves in Cleveland. The reasons to think Perez will be the eventual winner of the closer role are legion. He’s younger than Kerry Wood on a bad team looking to the future. He can be a better pitcher than Kerry Wood. He’s cheaper than Kerry Wood. Other teams are interested in trading for Kerry Wood. This is not to say that Perez is perfect. You’d like to see a lot more strikeouts than 7.60 per nine, a lot fewer walks than 4.72 per nine, and more groundballs than 32.6%. HIs 5.18 xFIP is really worrisome, actually, and you can see he’s been lucky (.236 BABIP, 82.1% LOB). On the other hand, his strikeout and walk rates have been much better in the past, and he does own a closer’s arsenal of strikeout stuff normally. He’s one of the better saves-speculation pickups out there, if not the best.

Jim Thome, Minnesota (5% owned)
On April 19th, Brian Joura big-upped Thome in his Waiver Wire piece. On May 19th, I reminded y’all. It’s another month later, so it’s time for your monthly Thome update. The most recent news has Justin Morneau hitting the DL with concussion issues and opening up a spot for Thome to play regularly. In OBP leagues, that’s all you had to say, because Thome is still elite in OBP (.372) and power (.287). If your league uses batting average, you’ll have to give him a longer think because he’ll never again post a nice batting average with those strikeout and contact rates.

Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee (Yet to be added to Yahoo database)
With Doug Davis hitting the DL, the Brew crew decided to call up long-time prospect Cain to help man the outfield. There are bushels of caveats to mention in Cain’s case. First, he’s been around a while, and it took him five years to get through the Brewer’s minor league system, which is not usually a positive. Second, the twenty-four year old was never once dominating, as his .782 career and .846 full-year peak minor league OPSes can attest. He’s also pretty much a speed-only guy, judging from his career minor league .416 SLG and .124 ISO. He’s more of a slight speedster (6’2″ 200 lbs, 123 stolen bases in 572 minor league games at a 78% success rate). He was also rated “The Tumbler” by Marc Hulet because of strikeout issues last year. The last notch against him is that the Milwaukee outfield is still crowded… for now. Corey Hart is rumored to be leaving town soon, and deep league speed-starved managers could do worse for a speculative pickup here. At least Cain is coming off his best year as an amateur, hitting .326/.407/.439 combined so far in 2010. He also cut his strikeouts this year (down to 20.7% from 24.1%), so he’s going well right now.

A sour season for Matt Wieters owners got even more frustrating on Friday, as the switch-hitting would-be savior was placed on the DL (retroactive to July 10th) with a strained right hamstring. Wieters has been battling the bad hammy since tripping while rounding second base during a July 9th game against the Texas Rangers.

The fifth overall pick in the ’07 draft laid waste to minor league pitching in 2008 (a combined .355/.454/.600 between High-A and Double-A) and 2009 (.305/.387/.504 in Triple-A) before the O’s called him up last May. Wieters turned in a very impressive rookie season — while not reaching the hyperbolic expectations set by some, he hit .288/.340/.412 with a .331 wOBA in 385 plate appearances. League-average offense from 23-year-old backstop in the AL East is nothing to scoff at.

Wieters was supposed to take several steps forward in 2010, with both ZiPS (.282/.346/.427, .342 wOBA) and CHONE (.289/.355/.460, .356 wOBA) predicting improvement at the plate. Instead, the former Georgia Tech star has stung those who used a prime draft pick on him — Wieters holds a sluggish .245/.315/.357 line in 298 PA, with a .298 wOBA.

While Baseball America lauded the 6-5, 230 pound Wieters’ 30-homer potential, that pop has not yet been on display in the majors. He had a .124 ISO last season, and that mark has fallen slightly in 2010, to .112. For comparison, ZiPS projected a .145 ISO and CHONE had a .171 ISO.

Part of the problem is an increase in ground balls hit. Wieters hit grounders 41.9% in 2009, and that ground ball rate has climbed to 46.4% this year. It also doesn’t help that the quality of pitches that he’s swinging at has declined. Here are Wieters’ swing rates on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (O-Swing) and within the zone (Z-Swing) in 2009 and 2010. I also included Wieters’ O-Swing and Z-Swing rates as a proportion of the MLB average:

Wieters is chasing a slightly higher percentage of pitches thrown off the plate (relative to the MLB average), but the big change is his swing rate on pitches over the plate. He’s taking more offerings thrown within the zone, which has contributed to his getting behind in the count more often. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage was 53 last season, but it has climbed to 60.7% in 2010 (58-59% MLB average). According to StatCorner, Wieters took a pitch for a strike 29.5% of the time in ’09. This year, he’s taking a pitch for a strike 33.8% (31% MLB average).

Our Pitch Type Run Values suggest that Wieters is struggling on a per-pitch basis against fastballs — his runs/100 value against the heat is -0.49 this season, compared to +0.71 in 2009. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Wieters swung at 45.8% of fastballs seen in ’09, and 41.3% in 2010. When Wieters got a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat in 2009, his strike percentage was 54.4. This season, he’s got a 62.2 strike% when a pitcher throws him a fastball to begin an AB. It seems as though he’s having a hard time distinguishing balls from strikes against the gas.

Despite his struggles, Wieters is still one of the most valuable properties in the game. ZiPS has a .274/.343/.407 rest-of-season projection for him, and CHONE predicts a .276/.341/.431 line. Even if the power doesn’t manifest when he returns, Wieters isn’t a sub-.250 hitter. His .317 expected BABIP is 26 points higher than his actual .291 BABIP.

I can’t stress this enough — please, please do not trade this guy for fifty cents on the dollar right now. That goes ten-fold for keeper leagues — you’ll be kicking yourself later if you let the aggravation caused by Wieters’ tepid 2010 overshadow his superb track record and prospect pedigree.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to recall right-hander James McDonald from Triple-A Albuquerque sometime over the next few days. McDonald, who was scratched from his scheduled Sunday start for the Isotopes, will likely take on the San Francisco Giants Monday night. The 24 year-old is stuck in between career stages — he’s got too much experience with the Dodgers to qualify as a prospect, but he has yet to establish himself in the majors, either. What’s his fantasy value? Let’s try to find out.

A two-way standout at Long Beach Poly High, McDonald was a draft-and-follow selection in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. L.A. opened up the check book after being impressed with his performance at Golden West (California) Junior College, handing the 6-5, 195 pound pitcher/outfielder a $150,000 bonus. McDonald began his pro career as a starting pitcher in 2003 (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 3.33 ERA in 48.2 Rookie Level innings), but a bout of elbow tendinitis led the Dodgers to try him out as a position player. The results were disastrous — the lefty-hitting McDonald put up a sub-.600 OPS between the Rookie-Level Gulf Coast and Pioneer Leagues in 2004 and 2005. Convinced that McDonald couldn’t hit the heat, the Dodgers let him resume throwing it.

McDonald returned to the mound full-time in 2006 with a solid performance in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He struck out over a batter per inning (9.23 K/9), though his control was spotty at times (4.11 BB/9). Darnell McDonald’s cousin had a 4.00 park-and-luck adjusted FIP in 142.1 innings. James wasn’t back on the scouting radar, though, as he didn’t make Baseball America’s list of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects following the ’06 season.

In 2007, McDonald emphatically announced his presence as a prospect. He dominated in 134.2 combined innings in the High-A California and Double-A Southern Leagues, posting rates of 11.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 3.49. About the only concern was his ground ball rate — it fell from 43.9% in ’06 to 38.6% in ’07 — but that’s nit-picking when a guy pitches so well. Utilizing an 87-93 MPH fastball and a pair of quality secondary pitches (a mid-70’s curveball and a high-70’s changeup), McDonald climbed to number seven on L.A.’s prospect list. Saying that McDonald could be a future number three starter, BA praised his “above-average command of three average to plus offerings.”

Beginning to 2008 campaign back in the Southern League, McDonald punched out 8.6 hitters per nine frames, issued 3.5 BB/9 and gave up 0.9 HR/9. With his rate of grounders again declining (35 GB%), his adjusted FIP in 118.2 innings was 4.03. McDonald got bumped up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in August, but his stay there wouldn’t be long. After punishing PCL hitters with a 28/7 K/BB ratio and a 3.85 adjusted FIP in 22.1 innings (31.6 GB%), McDonald earned a big league call-up in September. He pitched in relief for the Dodgers, and he even got some postseason action — McDonald whiffed seven Phillies batters in 5.1 scoreless frames during the NLCS. After the season, BA boosted him to number two on the Dodgers’ prospect list.

The Dodgers had McDonald open 2009 in the big league rotation, but the club pulled the plug after a few shaky outings. He was shifted to the ‘pen for a while, but was then sent back to Triple-A to get stretched out. McDonald put up a 3.25 adjusted FIP in 30.1 IP for the Isotopes, with a 40/14 K/BB and a 25 GB%. But, when L.A. recalled him in late June, it was as a reliever. McDonald would go on to log 63 innings in the majors, striking out 7.71 per nine, walking 4.86 and surrendering 0.86 HR/9. With a neutral ground ball rate (44.3 GB%), McDonald had a 4.78 xFIP.

This season, McDonald missed time with a broken fingernail and a strained right hamstring. When on the mound for Albuquerque, he has compiled rates of 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 4.39 adjusted FIP in 63.1 IP. McDonald has kept the ball on the ground more this year, with a 43.4 percent ground ball rate.

What can we expect in the majors, should he stick at the back of the Dodgers’ rotation? Prior to the 2010 season, ZiPS projected 7.44 K/9, 4 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.74 FIP for McDonald (CHONE’s forecast came as a reliever). At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome, particularly in the present moment given the Dodgers’ lumbering outfield alignment — the team has the worst collective outfield UZR in the game.

McDonald’s an option in NL-only formats, though Manny, Kemp and Ethier likely won’t do him any favors. As for keeper leagues, he doesn’t really possess the sort of upside to make him a prime target.

It was an All-Star shortened week, but let’s have a look and see who was hot over the past seven days.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon was the only AL closer to record more than one save this past week. He notched two stops without allowing a run or a free pass, which is no small feat for a guy with a walk rate of 4.68 BB/9 on the season. Simon currently features a 3.24 ERA but his xFIP of 4.51 suggests that you should be cautious with him moving forward. He’s really a one-pitch pitcher right now (fastball) as both his slider and splitter have negative pitch-type values.

Jose Valverde, Detroit
Valverde was successful in his only save opportunity of the week and he did not give up a run over two appearances. He also recorded three strikeouts. He continues to be helped by an incredibly lucky BABIP-allowed of just .169. His ground ball rate (improved by about 40% over his career norm) of 62.4% has helped him keep the ball in the park despite seeing a big drop in strikeout rate (10.72 career to 8.31 K/9 in 2010). It appears that he’s relying on his splitter much more than he has in the past.

Joba Chamberlain, New York
There weren’t really any closers that had terrible weeks in the AL, so it’s a good time to focus on Chamberlain since he’s the heir apparent to the closer’s role in New York. He blew a save and took the loss against Seattle on July 10. His season has not been nearly as bad as his 5.79 ERA would suggest. Chamberlain has a hit rate of 10.13 H/9 but his xFIP is just 3.38 and his BABIP-allowed sits at .380. On the plus side, both his walk rate (3.38 BB/9) and strikeout rate (9.64 K/9) have improved over 2009.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Again, it wasn’t a bad week for closers overall, so Bailey’s loss gets him on the list. The right-hander also saved a game this past week but he gave up three hits, two walks and a run in two appearances against the Angels. Bailey is still throwing well overall and has given up just two earned runs in his past 12 appearances. He’s also 6-for-6 in save opportunities since mid-June.

Chris Perez, Cleveland
With trade rumors swirling around Kerry Wood, Perez could find himself back in the closer’s role before you know it. He did himself no favors this past week, though, as he walked five batters in 1.1 innings of work. The walks came during a three-day span. He walked three batters in one-third of an inning of July 9 and two batters in 1.0 inning of July 11. Luckily, he did not allow a hit or a run during that rough patch. Since June 1, Perez had walked just three batters in 14 appearances prior to July 9. He also hasn’t given up a hit in five appearances dating back to late June.

It was an All-Star-shortened week, but let’s have a look and see who was hot over the past seven days.

Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez continues to have a very solid season. He’s coming off of a week in which he saved two games in as many tries. He gave up one hit and did not allow a walk while recording two Ks. For the season, his xFIP sits at 2.99 and his strikeout rate is a career-high 9.08 K/9. His xFIP in July is 1.37 so it’s nice to see him staying strong.

Honorable Mentions: Both Huston Street and Billy Wagner were featured in last week’s post and both closers continue to roll along by recording two saves each without allowing an earned run. Hopefully you were able to grab Street off the waiver wire or from an unsuspecting fellow fantasy manager.

John Axford, Milwaukee:
In terms of fantasy value, Axford actually had a good week by recording a save and two wins in three appearances. However, he gave up four hits and two runs during that stetch. He was touched up by Pittsburgh on back-to-back nights. Overall, his numbers remain strong with a 2.76 xFIP and a strikeout rate of 11.08.

Heath Bell, San Diego:
Bell appeared in just one game this past week and was dinged for a run against Colorado. It took him 29 pitches – the most he’s thrown in any one game this season – to get through 1.2 innings of work. The outing broke a strong of six scoreless appearances, so there is really no reason to be concerned. He’s also struck out at least one batter per appearance in his last 10 games.

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh
Mr. Inconsistency posted a 20.25 ERA in two games while blowing two saves and taking a loss in the one game. He gave up four runs on three hits over 1.1 innings of work. Dotel now has five blown saves on the year. He’s struggling against left-handed hitters who have a .309 batting average and 9.24 BB/9 rate against him. Right-handers, meanwhile, have a .192 average and 1.61 BB/9 rate.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia
The ERA of 4.60 is ugly, but his xFIP sits at 3.43 and he has a solid strikeout rate at 12.06 K/9. Lidge’s BABIP rate is high-ish at .341 and his overall numbers are skewed by the three-spot he allowed against Cincinnati on June 29. He’s a potentially solid buy-low closer.

Out since last June, it looks like Reds’ righty Edinson Volquez will make his triumphant return to the big leagues this Saturday against the Rockies. He’s been on the shelf because of reconstructive elbow surgery, but he also mixed a 50-game PED suspension in there as well.

Part of that great win-win trade with the Rangers and Josh Hamilton, Volquez broke out in a big way in 2008, putting together a 4.3 WAR season thanks to 196 innings of 3.60 FIP ball. Last year didn’t go as well before the elbow gave out (5.01 FIP in 49.2 IP), but Volquez is healthy now, which is a great thing for fantasy owners.

Always a high strikeout (8.51 K/9 career, 9.46 in ’08), high walk (4.62 BB/9 career, 4.27 in ’08) power arm (averaged 93.6-93.8 mph on the fastball from 2006-2009), Volquez rolled through the minors during his rehab stint, posting a 28/8 K/BB ratio in 31 IP (six starts) and showing his old velocity. The question isn’t if he’s ready to return to the show physically, but how much should we expect out of him.

The biggest issue are the walks. Command and control is typically the last thing to come back after elbow surgery, and Edinson didn’t exactly pound the strike zone before getting hurt either. I wouldn’t read anything into his 2.3 BB/9 during the rehab stint, because not only is it a tiny sample, but young players in the bush leagues will chase stuff off the plate and get themselves out. Good luck doing that against a non-Astros big league lineup. With the elbow issues last season, Volquez walked a ridiculous 5.8 batters per nine, and I would anticipate something between his ’08 and ’09 marks through the end of the season. Something right around five makes sense, but he could easily best that.

Volquez has always been tough to hit, and I wouldn’t expect that to change, nor would I expect his strikeout rate to plummet. That will help keep his WHIP in check despite the all the free passes. Conservatively assuming 8.5 K/9 with 5.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 should translate to a low- to mid-4.00’s ERA, which has lots of value when you consider that Volquez has the potential to be so much better than that. The Reds have a solid back-end of the bullpen, so leads and wins should be safe. Coming back from Tommy John surgery can be tricky, but guys with this kind of sheer stuff have a lot more room for error.

Volquez is owned in just 27% of Yahoo! leagues, and even if his return comes a little later than this Saturday, run out and grab him. Adding a starter of this caliber and this late in the season usually takes a trade, but now you (might) have a chance to pull it off without sacrificing anything more than waiver priority. That Saturday start comes against the Rox, and after that Cincinnati has dates with the Nationals, Astros, Brewers, Braves, and Pirates.