If you happen to play fantasy football, then you’ve probably figured out that it’s really tough to win a league title with Peyton Manning as your quarterback. It’s not that he isn’t a great player, he obviously is. The problem is that the Colts always clinch a playoff berth only and rest their regulars during Week 17, championship week in fantasyland. Instead of getting a full four quarters (or more) worth of Manning, you’re getting a half or maybe even less. Tough to win with your best player on the bench.

The same theory applies in fantasy baseball, though the impact might not be as severe. Almost every team has implemented some sort of innings limitation on their young starting pitchers, likely shutting them down (or at least scaling back their number of starts) late in the season. That can be a problem for owners who have relied on these guys all season, and suddenly taken away come playoff time.

Replacing that kind of production is often impossible late in the season, so there’s not much more you can do than take the hit if you’ve waited to long to act. What can you do to prevent this? Simple, just trade them to an unsuspecting owner before your trade deadline. Enjoy as much as their production as possible, then spin them off before their team tightens the clamps.

Here are five young pitchers with fantasy value and upcoming innings situations that you may want to avoid. The IP totals listed included majors and minors.

Jaime Garcia | 2010 IP: 103 | 2009 IP: 37.2

Garcia missed basically all of the 2009 season after having Tommy John surgery, so his previous career high comes way back in 2006, when the tossed 155 IP. He does have two other seasons at 103.1 IP and 122 IP, so the century mark is nothing foreign to him. Tony LaRussa seemed to indicate that the team doesn’t have a set limit for Garcia this year, though they will take special care not over to overwork him.

Phil Hughes | 2010 IP: 106 | 2009 IP: 105.1

The Yankees have not put a number out there as far as Hughes’ cap for this season, but the general belief that it will be around 160-175 IP. If true, they’re using his 2006 career high total as 146 IP as his baseline. Unlike the sometimes comical Joba Rules, the Yanks have indicated that they’re going to take a more conventional approach when controlling Hughes’ workload, taking advantage of off days to skip his turn every so often. This plan is already in full effect, as the 24-year-old righty has thrown just 23.2 IP (four starts) over the last 31 days.

Mat Latos | 2010 IP: 106.2 | 2009 IP: 123

The Padres caught a bit of a break when Latos required a sneeze-induced DL stint, and it turns out he won’t even miss a start thanks to the All Star break and off days. Pitching coach Darren Balsley indicated before the season that the team would start to be careful with Latos once he gets to 150 IP, though they understandably have no plans to shut their best pitcher down once he reaches that total now that they’re in a pennant race. Expect San Diego to take advantage of as many off days as possible over the next few weeks, otherwise they’re going to have a problem on their hands come early September.

Mike Leake | 2010 IP: 114.2 | 2009 IP: 142

Leake’s IP total at Arizona State last season appears gaudy, and it is, but remember that he was working on a once-a-week schedule, not a once-every-five-days schedule. Those extra two days of rest between outings is a considerable difference. Dusty Baker said they’re going to skip Leake a few times, but declined to reveal a set innings cap. Speculation has it around 150-175 IP, which really isn’t that far off now.

Stephen Strasburg | 2010 IP: 104 | Career High: 109

Like Leake, Strasburg’s innings came on a once-a-week schedule in college last season. The Nationals have been pretty open about their plan for the young phenom, saying that they will start him on a regular five day schedule and simply shut him down when the time comes. Strasburg will be held to 150-160 IP or so, so he might be a fantasy non-factor by the end of August. He’s on the mound tonight, so that 2010 IP total is going up as you read this. His name alone will get plenty of attention if you place him on the trade block.

Three others worth mentioning are Jonathon Niese, Clay Buchholz, and David Price, but they’re in a little better shape than those guys above. Niese is already up to 102.1 IP this year (not counting tonight), but his career high is 178 IP back in 2008, which came before a 120 IP effort last season (with a hamstring injury mixed it). Buchholz has thrown 99.2 IP this season (counting today), and he threw a whopping 191 IP last season. Price tossed 162.2 IP last year, and is up to 120.1 IP this season. They’re good to go.

Erik Kratz, Pirates (Owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues)

With Ryan Doumit looking lost behind the plate and the since-demoted Jason Jaramillo trotting down the first base line less often than Jalapeno Hannah, the Pirates decided to call up the 30-year-old Kratz.

A monster of a man at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Kratz is a former 29th-round pick from the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization who latched on with the Pirates as a minor league free agent prior to the 2009 season. The right-handed hitter posted a .273/.337/.470 line in 353 Triple-A PA last season, and he batted .296/.396/.550 in 225 trips to the plate in 2010 before getting the big league promotion.

It’s hard to say how much the organizational soldier will play, but he’s expected to garner more starts than Jaramillo did and caddy for the switch-hitting Doumit against lefties. During his career, Doumit has a .342 wOBA as a lefty versus RHP and a .309 wOBA against left-handers as a RHB. Using the method outlined here for estimating platoon skill, I get a .346 estimated wOBA for Doumit vs. RHP and a .322 estimated wOBA against lefties. Can Kratz match that? Overall, CHONE projects Kratz as a slightly below-average MLB hitter (.253/.318/.443, roughly a .322 wOBA). Assuming he shows a typical platoon split for a RHB (better against LHP), Kratz should be a bit of an upgrade over Doumit against lefties.

Depending upon the Pirates’ level of disgust in Doumit’s D, Kratz could get penciled into the lineup more frequently. He’s got some power, and that could make him an option in NL-only leagues.

Drew Stubbs, Reds (34%)

Cincy’s first-round pick in the 2006 draft is easing concerns that his bat won’t play well at the big league level. A 6-4, 205 pound center fielder known for wheels allowing him to cover lots of ground and swipe bases at a high percentage clip (77.1% in the minors), Stubbs never really stand out at the plate as a prospect. He hit a collective .269/.364/.401 in 1,847 plate appearances, with a good eye (11.9 BB%) but little in the way of pop (.132 ISO). Stubbs also whiffed 27.3% of the time, raising questions about his contact ability.

The former Longhorn’s defensive chops figured to make him an acceptable starter even if his offense was below-average, but happily, he’s holding his own with the lumber. In 546 major league PA over the past two years, Stubbs has a .257/.322/.434 line and a .337 wOBA. Sure, he’s coming up empty more than most — his contact rate is 73.4% (81% MLB average) and his K rate is 29.3% — but that hasn’t precluded him from succeeding. Stubbs has walked an acceptable 8.4% of the time, and he’s hitting with the authority that once led Baseball America to claim he possessed “plus raw power.” Stubbs has a .177 ISO in the majors, with 21 homers. He’s also contributing plenty on the base paths. After going 10-for-14 in SB attempts last season, Stubbs has been successful in 18 of 21 tries in 2010.

Given Stubbs’ mild numbers in the minors, both ZiPS (.240/.311/.378 rest-of-season projection) and CHONE (.246/.323/.379) are skeptical that the 25-year-old can keep up the pace. Personally, I think he’s capable of hitting at a level closer to his current mark. He’s not a hacker, he’s tapping into his power potential and he’s taking his home swings in a park that increases HR production by 35 percent for righty batters.

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

We’re well into July now and the trade deadline is right around the corner. The Orioles’ figure to move several pieces between now and then, with Ty Wigginton and Miguel Tejada getting the most face time on the trade rumor circuit. Whether or not they get moved within the next two weeks or during the August waiver period is a different story all together, but once those two are gone, the path will be clear for top prospect Josh Bell to get regular playing time for the O’s.

Bell was up with Baltimore earlier this month (a clean .200/.200/.200 batting line in 15 PA) before going back down to Triple-A to get some at-bats during the All Star break. He’s back now, but has mostly ridden the bench as the vets get showcased for their (eventual) new teams. Acquired in the George Sherrill deal, Baseball America ranked Bell as the team’s second best prospect before this season.

“[Bell] has above-average power and a good approach,” said BA’s write-up, “showing the ability to work counts to get on base.” His minor league track record backs it up; His career ISO above A-ball is a hefty .209 in 827 plate appearances. Despite being a switch-hitter, Bell has a considerable platoon split (.687 OPS vs. LHP, .875 vs. RHP), enough to garner whispers about becoming a full-time lefthanded hitter. Considering some of the power lefthanded starters in the AL East, that may not be such a good thing.

I’m not sure Bell has much to offer your team during the remainder of this season, so his value is primary tied up in keeper leagues. There’s enough power in his bat that 20 homers over a full season is very possible as soon as 2011, though he might not bring such a high average right away. The one thing he will be assured of in the future is playing time, with the O’s in full rebuild mode and Bell representing one of their core pieces. If Wigginton and Tejada get moved sooner rather than later, the O’s and fantasy owners alike will get a sneak preview the rest of the way.

Last winter, we took a gander at the MLB hitters with the biggest difference between their respective batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and expected BABIP (xBABIP) totals. Today, let’s update those lists for 2010.

To get the full methodology, here’s a link back to last year’s article. xBABIP, developed by Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton, estimates a hitter’s BABIP based on components such as batted ball distribution, speed and power. For the purposes of calculating xBABIP, I’m again using a formula developed by Slash 12 of Beyond the Box score based on the work of Bendix and Dutton. The model uses the following to find a hitter’s xBABIP:

– Line Drive Percentage (LD%)
– Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
– Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
– Infield/Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%)
– Home Run/Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%)
– Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%)

Hitters with high LD%, HR/FB% and INFH% totals tend to have higher BABIPs than those who don’t. Grounders have a higher BABIP than fly balls, and infield flies are BABIP killers.

From last year’s post, a disclaimer:

These lists of “lucky” and “unlucky” hitters are based on just one year of data. To get a better feel for how a hitter will perform in the future, it’s vital to take a good hard look at multiple seasons worth of performance. This is just a quick-and-dirty exercise.

In this case, the numbers are based on even less data — I used a 200 plate appearance cut-off. These lists basically tell you, “who has underperformed or over performed based on their batted ball inputs so far in 2010?” A player might have certain line drive, infield fly and HR/FB percentages to this point, but that does not mean those numbers will persist in the months to come. To provide more context, I have included the rest-of-season ZiPS BABIP for the players with the biggest BABIP/xBABIP splits.

Without further ado, here are the 25 hitters with the biggest negative BABIP/xBABIP splits. These guys have BABIP totals that are significantly lower than their xBABIPs:

Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Chris Tillman is expected to play a prominent role in the Baltimore Orioles’ attempt to climb from the depths of the AL East standings. The 22-year-old, picked up as part of the February 2008 Erik Bedard deal with the Seattle Mariners, has both the performance record and scouting reports to elicit the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. Yet, Tillman’s early turns in the big league rotation over the 2009 and 2010 seasons have been underwhelming — with a 5.24 xFIP in 90 innings pitched, he has been slightly worse than replacement-level. Why has Tillman scuffled so far, and what can be expected in the future? Let’s try to find out.

First, I’d like to point out that the MLB numbers to be referenced have occurred in 90 innings, spread over two seasons. It’s a woefully inadequate sample with which to make any sort of bold claim. I’m simply trying to explore why Tillman has performed poorly to this point. The fact that he hasn’t zoomed out of the gate doesn’t preclude him from becoming a quality starter down the line.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s a look at how Tillman’s major league peripheral stats match up with his Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, based on his pitching in the minors over the past two seasons. In other words, here’s how Tillman has pitched in the majors, compared to how we would have expected him to pitch based on his minor league stats:

Actual MLB: 5.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.80 HR/9, 5.24 xFIP
2009-2010 MLE (based on 176 IP with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides): 6.57 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 4.31 FIP

Tillman has punched out about 1.5 less batters per nine innings than his MLE suggests. The lack of whiffs is reflected in his plate discipline stats — opponents have made contact against Tillman 84.9% of the time they take a cut (81% MLB average). Tillman’s swinging strike rate is 6.2%, while the big league average sits between eight and nine percent.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he has garnered a below average number of whiffs with his 91-92 MPH fastball (reputed to be 94+ MPH in the past) and upper-70’s curveball. Tillman’s heater has been whiffed at 4.6% (6% MLB average), and his curve 6.8% (11.6%). His 79-80 MPH change has a 13.9% whiff rate, which bests the 12.6% MLB average.

Tillman’s walk rate is higher than expected, due at least in part to his getting behind the hitter right from the get-go. Tillman’s first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is 54.5%, compared to the 58% MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, batters have gotten ahead in the count at some point in 38.1% of their plate appearances versus Tillman. The AL average, by contrast, is 35-36 percent. Tillman has been ahead in the count at some point in 24.8% of opponent plate appearances, while the AL average is 30-31%. He’s spending too much time in hitter’s counts and too little time in pitcher’s counts, which obviously influences both his punch out and walk numbers.

Going back to the Pitch F/X data, Tillman’s throwing lots of strikes with his fastball — 66.1%, compared to the 64% MLB average. But, our Pitch Type Run Values suggest hitters are slamming the offering. Tillman’s fastball has been -1.65 runs below average per 100 pitches. He’s not throwing his curve or changeup for strikes — 50.7% for the deuce (58% MLB average) and 57.4% for the change (60.7%). But those secondary pitches fare better in terms of run value (-0.09 for the curve, +0.43 for the change).

Homers have also been an issue. Tillman has coughed up 1.8 dingers per nine. His home run per fly ball rate is inflated, at 14.1% (the MLB average is about 11%). However, Camden Yards increased home runs per fly ball hit by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. And, Tillman gives up lots of fly balls — his GB% in the majors is just 38.1%, and it was 37.6% in Triple-A over the past two seasons. If he had given up home runs per fly ball hit at a league average rate (11%) on the road and about 13% at home, he would have been taken deep 16 times so far (1.6 HR/9), instead of 18. Given Tillman’s flyballing ways, he’s not a great fit for his home venue. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why he has been working on a two-seam fastball, an offering that generates more ground balls than any other pitch type.

Fantasy owners, particularly those in keeper leagues, should have patience with Tillman. He won’t turn 23 until next April, and he was considered a top 25 prospect by Baseball America as recently as last season. That being said, there are some concerns here — Tillman’s strikeout rate fell at Norfolk this season, his fastball velocity has been less than advertised and hitters often loft the ball against him, a negative considering his home ball park. In the present moment, expect adequacy instead of excellence — ZiPS projects 6.11 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.69 FIP for the rest of 2010, while CHONE forecasts 6.14 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9 and a 4.68 neutralized ERA.

Right now, Tillman isn’t showcasing the electric stuff that earned him the adulation of scouts. But keeper league players are best off holding tight and hoping that the mid-90’s heat and hammer curve return. Those just playing for the here and now should recognize Tillman’s lack of polish, while keeping a close eye on his outings. Pitchers don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion; if he’s not hurt, perhaps Tillman’s just a mechanical tweak away from returning to form.

With not enough content to write separate 1B and 3B articles, let’s combine them, shall we?

Gordon Beckham | White Sox | 44% owned

Eno talked about Beckham late last week, but I figured he deserves some more attention. Beckham is now owned in 10% more leagues since Eno last updated you, and for good reason. In 39 July plate appearances, Beckham is hitting .421 with an OPS over 1.000. While the sample is small, and the BABIP is fluky (.438), Beckham is hitting more line drives, striking out less, and hitting for power. Beckham’s dual 2B/3B eligibility makes him an attract option in leagues with MI and CI roster spots, and he can man either of them on any given day. He’s young, so keeper league owners want to be especially vigilant and pick him off the waiver wire.

Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | 9% owned

Like Beckham, Alvarez did not have a good start to his season, but is turning it around. When he came up to the bigs, Alvarez was trying way to hard to hit homers, and his performance suffered because of it. He’s significantly cut down on the strikeouts this month, and has started to flash the power we were all expecting. He won’t keep hitting .308 due to a BABIP and overall skill issue, and he won’t walk, but he’s a good option in keeper leagues. He’ll get plenty of playing time the rest of the year, so don’t be afraid to add him if you are in a NL-only league and get in a bind.

Matt LaPorta | Indians | 16% owned

While he was the prized piece of the C.C. Sabathia deal, LaPorta had been looking like a bust before his recent surge. He’s hit well since he was recalled after the Russell Branyan trade, flashing both power and batting average skills. He still strikes out too much, but I think he’ll prove his doubters wrong the rest of the season. As an added bonus, LaPorta has LF and RF eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

With all of these players, it wouldn’t be right for me to tout them and convince you to (at the very least) pay attention to them if I didn’t have something on the line. So, full disclosure: I picked up LaPorta and Beckham in separate leagues this week, and have hung onto Alvarez since he was called up. I believe in these guys, and you should, too.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

The first starting pitcher update of the so-called second half…

Josh Beckett & Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 88% & 81% owned, respectively

The Red Sox are finally starting to get healthy. Buchholz is on track to come off the disabled list and start Wednesday against the Athletics in Oakland, which is a must start for fantasy owners. He’s only missed two weeks, so I wouldn’t worry about the hammy injury limiting his effectiveness or anything like that. You can’t pass up a matchup like that.

Beckett’s a different story. He’s been out since mid-May with a back issue, but even before the injury his peripheral stats were down from last year (-0.55 K/9, +1.41 BB/9, -4.3% GB%). Obviously the injury could have contributed to that. Beckett’s 7.29 ERA is largely a function of a .365 BABIP and 55.9% LOB%, but a return to his ~3.33 FIP form from 2007-2009 through the rest of the season isn’t a given. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 ERA (3.42 FIP) and 8.38 K/9 the rest of the way, though I’d perhaps plan for a few less strikeouts. Maybe that’s just the conservative in me. He’ll reportedly start in Seattle on Friday, another must start even if he’s not the Josh Beckett of old.

Sergio Mitre | Yankees | 0%

The Yankees lost Andy Pettitte for what GM Brian Cashman called four-to-five weeks yesterday, so his spot will be filled by Mitre for the time being. He’s coming off the disabled list himself (oblique), and his two spot starts earlier this year were bad (4.1 IP, 4 R) and good (5 IP, 1 R). The sinkerballer won’t give you any strikeouts (5.46 K/9), though he’ll steal a few wins given the team around him if used properly. His next two starts come against the Royals and at Cleveland, solid matchups.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 33%

Back up from his minor league crash course, Porcello gave up one run over eight innings against the Indians over the weekend, though he still allowed a fair amount of fly balls plus line drives (17) compared to grounders (11). The sinker is a huge part of Porcello’s success, so until he gets his ground ball rate back closer to 55% than 45%, we’re going to have to hedge our bets. Saturday was a good step forward, now let’s see some more. His next two starts come against the homer happy Blue Jays and the powerhouse Rays. Might want to leave him on the bench for those two.

Quick Notes: Wesley Wright will replace Brian Moehler in the Astros’ rotation and start tomorrow in Wrigley. Moehler hit the disabled list with a groin issue … Roy Oswalt is on target to make his next start (Saturday against the Reds) after taking a comebacker off his ankle yesterday … Scott Kazmir, both ineffective and injured, will be replaced in the Halos rotation by either Trevor Bell or Sean O’Sullivan. The team will announce who gets the start tomorrow, before their game against the Yankees … Mat Latos is expected to come off the disabled list in time for his start against the Pirates on Saturday. Between the All Star break and off days, he’ll end up missing zero starts … Jeanmar Gomez of the Indians was fantastic in his big league debut yesterday (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K), but was optioned back to the minors today. He’ll be back up at some point, and I definitely dig him as a sleeper. Not a big stuff guy, but good command and a willingness to attack the zone.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Overall, the Minnesota Twins’ starting rotation has been excellent — the team boasts a 4.01 xFIP from its starters, best in the AL. But, while Francisco Liriano is re-establishing himself as an ace and Carl Pavano is thriving on the power of the ‘stache, the rest of the rotation is unsettled at the moment. Scott Baker has been hampered by poor outfield D, but he’s dealing with elbow tendinitis. Kevin Slowey’s vanishing ground ball rate has contributed to a so-so-season. Nick Blackburn, meanwhile, has seen his K rate enter untenable territory.

As such, the Twins are considering moving Brian Duensing back into the starting rotation, likely at the expense of Blackburn. If Duensing does make the shift from the ‘pen, what’s his fantasy value? Let’s take a closer look at the 27-year-old lefty.

Duensing was selected out of Nebraska in the third round of the 2005 draft. A 5-foot-11, 195 pound Tommy John survivor, Duensing was drafted more for his polish and proximity to the majors than for his stuff — Baseball America said he sat 86-90 MPH with his fastball and possessed a solid changeup. BA also voiced concern about the Cornhusker’s durability, as he had to miss the Big 12 Conference tournament due to lingering elbow soreness.

After carving up less experienced hitters in Rookie ball that summer (50.1 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.27 FIP), Duensing made his full-season debut in 2006. He jumped all the way from the Low-A Midwest League to the Double-A Eastern League, with a stop in the High-A Florida State league in between. In 160 combined innings, Duensing had 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, his ground ball rate was 51.8% and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP checked in at 3.87. After declining to include Duensing in its ’06 Prospect Handbook, BA rated him as the 18th-best talent in the Twins’ system prior to 2007. While noting that nothing in Duensing’s repertoire amazed scouts, BA claimed that “all his offerings — both two-and-four-seam fastballs that sit in the upper 80’s, a curveball, slider and circle changeup — grade out as average or a tick above at times.”

The next year, Duensing split the season between Double-A and the Triple-A International League, spending the majority of his time at the latter level. He whiffed 6.7 per nine innings, walked two per nine and gave up 0.8 HR/9 in 167.1 IP. Duensing got grounders 48.2% of the time while posting a 3.56 adjusted FIP. Baseball America bumped him up to eighth in Minnesota’s system, again lauding his four-pitch mix and quality control.

Duensing’s stock slipped a bit in 2008, as his strikeout rate took a tumble back at Rochester. He punched out five batters per nine innings, handing out 2.2 BB/9 and coughing up a homer per nine frames. Duensing continued to keep the ball down (51.7 GB%), but his adjusted FIP fell to 4.13. BA dropped him to number 16 on the Twins’ top 30 list, wondering if a move to relief might be in his future — Duensing reportedly sat 94 MPH with his fastball out of the ‘pen for the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing.

In 2009, Duensing divided his time between the Red Wings and the Twins. He had 5.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9 and a 46.2 GB% in 75.1 minor league innings. Adjusting for that tiny homer rate, Duensing’s FIP was 3.89. As a Twinkie, Duensing made nine starts and 15 relief appearances. He posted a 4.42 xFIP in 52.2 IP as a rotation member (his actual ERA was 2.72), with 5.64 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 and a 46.3% ground ball rate. Duensing had 5.74 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, a 44.2 GB% and a 5.36 xFIP in 31.1 innings as a reliever. His pitch selection between to two roles wasn’t especially different (he incorporated his curve more as a starter), nor was his fastball velocity (90.5 MPH out of the ‘pen, 91.3 MPH as a starter).

This season, Duensing has pitched exclusively in relief. The surface results look spectacular — a 1.67 ERA in 43 innings. His peripherals, by contrast, aren’t so special. Duensing’s got 5.65 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, a 49.6 GB% and a 4.24 xFIP. That svelte ERA is due in large part to a .241 BABIP and a 91.1% rate of stranding runners on base.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 4.83 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.73 FIP from Duensing. That forecast comes in a swing role, so his projected FIP would be higher solely as a starter. CHONE has a more optimistic projection — 4.92 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 4.59 neutralized ERA as a full-time starting pitcher. That’s basically the extent of Duensing’s utility — he could be an average big league starter. There’s nothing wrong with that from the Twins’ standpoint, as a passable rotation arm yet to reach arbitration has value. But fantasy owners shouldn’t get overly giddy about Duensing.

This edition of catcher notes focuses on three young backstops who could help your team now, and in the future.

Carlos Santana | Indians | 64% owned

Santana had huge expectations hoisted on his shoulders when he was called up, and he has exceeded them. Mark my words: Carlos Santana will be the best fantasy catcher for the rest of the year. Seriously, I’d be willing to put money (er, gummy bears) on it. Since he only owned in 64% of leagues, it’s worth your time to check the waiver wire and add him if he’s available.

Matt Wieters | Orioles | 66% owned

One of the most hyped catchers on draft day has been a major disappointment, but there is still hope. In the past 30 days, Wieters has hit .304 while driving in 11 runs. Keep in mind, during the past 30 days, Wieters has missed time due to injury and the All-Star break, so his sample size is small. Still, you can color me optimistic. He has a great offensive pedigree, and when he returns to the bigs when his DL stint is up at the end of the month, I expect great things. I’ve seen him dropped in some leagues (even a keeper league), so he could be a good buy-low guy if you are looking to build for the future.

Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers | 1% owned

The Brewers “catcher of the future,” Lucroy has hit well in his first big league season. Lucroy wasn’t supposed to see a lot of time in the majors this year, but Gregg Zaun’s injury opened up playing time for the youngster. Marc Hulet rated Lucroy as the Brewers 5th best prospect coming into the year, noting his offensive reputation. Lucroy is hitting .280/.316/.376 right now, so he isn’t a good value in OBP or OPS leagues, but could deserve a pickup in keeper and NL-only leagues. He won’t play every day, but he plays enough to justify a roster spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.