We first talked about who might replace Octavio Dotel three months ago, during a tough stretch for the closer. Now that Buster Olney is reporting that teams feel that the Pirates will trade Dotel and install Joel Hanrahan as the closer, we have to revisit the situation.

First, Dotel probably won’t close wherever he goes. He has a 4.06 FIP, and despite owning a nice strikeout rate (10.95 K/9), he has a mediocre walk rate (4.14 BB/9) and a poor groundball rate (30.4%), so it’s hard to see which contending team would consider him an upgrade at closer. So enjoy the saves you have in the bank, and if you are in H2H, start looking for a replacement like pronto.

Second, is it crazy to think Hanrahan is the best Buc option at closer? He has the mythical closer experience, at least. This year, he’s paired that experience with his career-best strikeout rate (12.53 K/9, 9.93 K/9 career) and walk rate (3.02 BB/9, 4.78 BB/9 career). His groundball rate is passable – 37.2% – and therefore his FIP (2.80) and xFIP (2.96) are both very nice.

Let’s not forget Evan Meek, who is having a nice year of his own. His strikeout race is at his conventional level (8.22 K/9, 7.76 career K/9), but it’s the reigned-in walk rate that has made his year so special (2.35 BB/9, 4.35 career BB/9). Given his groundball rate (52.9%), it would not be crazy to label him the better pitcher despite his slightly higher FIP (2.85) and xFIP (3.19). If anyone’s HR/9 is going to move quickly in the second half, it would probably be Hanrahan’s, judging from their respective fly ball rates.

In the end, the report says Hanrahan, so that’s the way we should lean when we flock to the waiver wires today. He makes for a perfectly fine addition, and save for a couple rough stretches and the odd home run, will probably make his new owners happy.

As an aside, I did wonder if some ‘gaming the system’ was going on here. As mostly malcontent Murray Chass pointed out in an article on integrity, teams are becoming more savvy about manipulating arbitration times. While I don’t agree that this is a shortcoming – if you want different rules, change em – it’s true that teams like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Florida probably delayed their prospects in order to keep them from achieving “Super Two” status.

Could Pittsburgh be doing something similar by keeping the (possibly) better pitcher (Meek) cheaper by keeping him out of the closer’s role? Arbitration committees would most certainly award a player with saves more money, even if that idea is silly. If Hanrahan was closer to free agency, this theory might make sense. Pump Hanrahan’s value up by installing him as closer, watch his salary escalate, and then trade him and turn to the cheaper Meek later – that was the theory. Too bad for the theory, Meek is only under control for a year longer than Hanrahan, so if this report is true, they must think that his gaudier strikeout rates make him a better fit at closer than Meek, straight up.

Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz continues to have a nice season and he saved three more games this past week. He also struck out four batters in 3.2 innings. The workload continues to worry me, so keep that in the back of your mind – especially if you’re in a keeper league. On the year, Feliz has 26 saves in 28 tries and has given up just 26 hits in 41.1 innings.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland
Bailey had a nice week with two saves and a win in three games. He did not allow an earned run and struck out two batters in 3.1 innings. Bailey has 20 saves and a solid ERA at 1.56 (xFIP of 4.15), but the low strikeout rate keeps him out of the “elite closer” category.

David Aardsma, Seattle
Aardsma could potentially change hands in the next week with the trade deadline looming. The right-hander looked good this past week with no runs allowed and six Ks in 3.0 innings of work. For the year, Aardsma has been up-and-down and sports a 4.88 ERA. He’s not an elite closer, but he’s a solid second closer for a fantasy team in a mixed league.

Kevin Gregg, Toronto
Aardsma’s trade value may have taken a bit of a bump up, but Gregg’s is certainly down. Toronto will most certainly not pick up his option for 2011 and the club may be afraid to offer him arbitration in the winter, so trading him now may be the only way to get a little (tiny) bit of value for him. Gregg has shown terrible control recently (four walks in 2.1 innings this past week) and he’s been toxic in high-leverage situations.

Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay
Soriano appeared in just two games this past week and he was roughed up by Baltimore on July 20 and blew the save. Overall, though, it was his first blown save in eight games. He’s struggled with his command recently. Soriano previously went 17 games without issuing a walk but he’s given up three free passes in his last four appearances. He’s a solid bet going forward.

David Robertson, New York
Robertson isn’t in line for saves in New York any time soon, but he could be an attractive trade target for a smart general manager. The right-hander showed his stuff this past week with seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings. On the year, he currently sports a 4.76 ERA, but his xFIP sits at 3.87 and in parts of three seasons, he has an 11.50 K/9 rate. With a little more consistent control and command of his breaking ball, the 25-year-old reliever could become a solid eighth- or ninth-inning guy.

Koji Uehara, Baltimore
Alfredo Simon is currently “The Man” when it comes to save opportunities in Baltimore, but Uehara could see more opportunities later this year or into 2011. The Japanese veteran has been solid while pitching out of the bullpen since coming back from injury. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 10.67 K/9 in ’10, compared to 6.48 K/9 when he was pitching out of the starting rotation in ’09. He comes at batters with no fewer than five different pitches, which helps make up for his 87 mph fastball.

Brian Wilson, San Francisco
The veteran closer was hot for the Giants this past week as he recorded four saves in as many tries. Appeared in an eye-popping five games in seven days, Wilson also took a loss on July 18 against the Mets. Over his 4.1 innings, the right-handed reliever struck out eight batters but gave up five hits. Along with a solid ERA of 1.93, Wilson has an attractive strikeout rate of 12.43 K/9.

Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez had perhaps his most successful week of the year by recording three saves and a win without allowing a run in four appearances. He also struck out nine batters in 4.0 innings. The former Royals reliever has never posted a 10.00+ strikeout rate (career high is 7.86 K/9), but he’s currently sitting at 10.18 K/9. He’s also had an improved ground-ball rate (50.5%) over his previous fly-ball tendencies.

John Axford, Milwaukee
Axford gave up just one hit and one walk over 4.0 innings this past week, which helped him secure three saves. He also struck out six batters and did not allow a runner to reach home plate. The right-handed rookie has now saved 13 games in 26 appearances and has a strikeout rate of 11.40 K/9. His days of control issues appear to be mostly behind him and he currently has positive pitch type values on all three of his pitches: mid-90s fastball, slider and change-up.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago
The strikeouts keep piling up for Marmol (seven more this past week) but that does not mean that he had success. The monster right-hander blew a save and took the loss this past week. In four appearances, he gave up just one hit but walked five batters. Marmol has an awesome strikeout rate on the year of 16.88 K/9 but his walk rate sits at 6.55 BB/9 and his ground-ball rate is just 34.7%.

Billy Wagner, Atlanta
After a couple of scorching weeks, Wagner was due to cool down. The veteran closer gave up two runs, including a homer, over the past seven days. In 2.2 innings (over three games), Wagner gave up three hits but did not walk a batter and he struck out two. All his trouble came in one game against San Diego on July 21 so there is really no reason for concern; prior to the blow-up, Wagner had gone eight games without allowing a run.

Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles
It’s hard to earn saves when you pitch with a guy like Jonathan Broxton, but Kuo has a lot of potential should the closer get injured (or a trade occurs). The right-hander pitched four innings this past week and did not allow a hit – although he did walk three batters. Kuo currently has a 0.86 ERA (3.07 xFIP) and a strikeout rate of 11.20 K/9 in 29 games. If he can avoid the disabled list going forward (a BIG if), Kuo has closer stuff.

The trade deadline is getting very close. How close is it? Close enough that Jon Heyman has moved back into Scott Boras’ guest house. Three big names have a very good chance of being traded at the deadline, and it will affect their fantasy value in one way or another. Rumors are flying around the internet like crazy, so I apologize if new information comes out.

Jayson Werth | OF | Likely Destination: Rays

Werth would bring his wood to St. Petersburg (I would say Tampa, but I’d get in trouble for that), and likely play RF for the Rays. Then again, he could move into the DH role instead, allowing Zobrist to stay in right or pave the way for a Desmond Jennings promotion. There’s no way to predict how Werth would handle AL pitching, let along AL East pitching, but I’d like to think that his power would transfer over nicely. If he’s traded, his RBI and run totals will likely rise, while his batting average will decline. Overall value: Slightly Increased.

Roy Oswalt | SP | Likely Destination(s): Phillies, Cardinals

The rumor that’s been floated actually links Werth and Oswalt. The rumor states that the Phillies would use the package the Rays give them to trade for Oswalt. Things get hairy if Houston isn’t excited about the Rays’ prospects, but chances are they will be. Essentially, the Phillies would end up trading Jayson Werth for Oswalt and Dominic Brown. Moving from Houston to Philly would increase Oswalt’s value, due to an increased amount of run support and better defense behind him. Recent reports link the Cardinals to Oswalt, who would benefit from not having to face Pujols. Trading within the division can create problems, but the Astros and Cards could still come to an agreement. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Dan Haren | SP | Likely Destination(s): Cardinals, Tigers

Haren’s possible landing spots are still a mystery, but it seems like it will come down to St. Louis and Detroit. If he moves, I think he’ll end up with the Cardinals, where he started his career. The Cardinals best prospect they could offer the D’Backs is a few years away from the bigs, so they would likely pull the trigger if given the chance. Haren would get more wins due to increased run support, and his ERA and BABIP could benefit from some of Dave Duncan’s magic. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Why do you, the readership, care about these things? Two reasons: First, these deals could be huge in AL-only and NL-only leagues, as players could be switching leagues. Secondly, you may be holding onto a player, or targeting a player because you think (hope?) he’ll be dealt at the deadline to a team that would boost his numbers. Heck, I’ve excluded Haren from trade talks because I’m desperately hoping he’ll be dealt at the deadline, so maybe some of you have been doing something similar.

Thanks to James Niemeyer for this article’s inspiration.

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

The Pirates have promoted four players this year who will play a big part in their future. How have they done so far, and what is their keeper value going forward? Below are my rankings of the four, from the best keeper to the worst.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | First Game: June 16th
Alvarez has been mashing this week, hitting four homers in the past two days, including a grand slam on Tuesday. He has admitted that he needed to get in a groove, and it looks like he’s done it during July. His LD rate for the month is much better than it was in June, and while striking out 30% of the time isn’t good, it’s better than the 47.8% mark he put up in June. Sure, his BABIP is high this month, but he’s not a .340 hitter, either. I see Alvarez as a .275-.280 hitter who provides good pop, and that’s good enough for a spot on my roster. If you didn’t believe me on Tuesday morning, you lost out on some great games, but you can still pick him up for the rest of the season and hold onto him.

Neil Walker | 2B | First Game: May 25th
Walker has performed very well since being called up, but still has many things to work on. While his BABIP is 60 points higher than we’d expect, he’s still mashing the ball (23% line drives), leading to a .314 batting average. He hasn’t shown the power production that he had in the minors, but is continuing his recent minor league trend of stealing a couple of bases. He won’t be an empty average guy for long, and could push for your 2B slot in standard leagues next year.

Jose Tabata | OF | First Game: June 9th
Tabata’s numbers have been pretty close to our expectations, and he should only get better. His BABIP may be over the .300 mark, but should actually be 35 points higher thanks to his speed and tendency to keep the ball out of the air. He’s already flashed good speed on the basepaths, stealing 9 bases (13 attempts) in 158 plate appearance. He doesn’t strike out much, and has shown an above-average walk rate. I like him a lot as a steals guy, but I’m not a fan of keeping guys just because they can steal bases.

Brad Lincoln | SP | First Game: June 9th
I’ll be blunt; Lincoln has not been good. Not at all. He’s not striking guys out or getting ground balls, making him a sitting duck. No one has been fooled by his stuff, and he needs to go back to the minors. Not a viable keeper unless you are in the deepest of leagues.

After what was probably Tim Lincecum’s worst major league start, Dave Cameron wondered if something’s wrong with San Francisco’s mop-topped ace with the acrobatic delivery. Cameron noted Lincecum’s month-by-month splits:

April: 1.78 BB/9, 10.85 K/9, 49.4% GB%, 2.25 xFIP
May: 5.70 BB/9, 9.91 K/9, 50.5% GB%, 4.10 xFIP
June: 3.38 BB/9, 9.56 K/9, 41.6% GB%, 3.23 xFIP
July: 3.38 BB/9, 7.09 K/9, 44.3% GB%, 4.06 xFIP

From 2007 to 2009, Lincecum had two months (June 2007, September 2007) where his xFIP was over 4.00. He’s now done it two of the last three months. He’s never had a month with a strikeout rate as low it is right now in July.

With Lincecum merely pitching very well as opposed to dominating, I thought it would be worth taking a closer look at the 26-year-old’s month-by-month performance. Here are his plate discipline stats:

Lincecum’s in-zone contact rate has climbed each month, and it’s actually above the major league average in July. Opponents are also putting the bat on the ball more on pitches out of the zone this month, which helps explain the lower K rate. His swinging strike rate has declined each month, sitting slightly above the MLB average in July.

He’s throwing more first pitch strikes, but they’re getting hit harder than is the case for most other pitchers. First pitches that batters decide to swing at are typically creamed, but even compared to the big league average, hitters are faring well vs. Lincecum on the first pitch. Baseball-Reference has a stat called sOPS+, which compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, and more than 100 means a pitcher is doing worse than most. Lincecum’s sOPS+ on the first pitch is 159 this season. I doubt there’s much predictive value here, but it’s worth noting.

How about Lincecum’s Runs/100 values?

It’s important when looking at these numbers to consider that pitches aren’t thrown independent of one another. The effectiveness of one pitch affects the others, and game theory comes into play as well. It’s not as simple as looking at the chart, seeing a certain pitch is doing well on a per-pitch basis and concluding that the pitcher should toss pitch X more in place of pitch Y. Hitters become privy to changes and adjust, too. If a pitcher makes a change in pitch selection, the batter may notice and start looking for that pitch more often.

With that being said, Lincecum’s fastball has remained effective on a per-pitch basis, while his secondary stuff has posted below-average run values. In terms of pitch selection, Lincecum’s going to his fastball more and his changeup less. His percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 52.9% in April to 58.7% this month, with his changeup percentage going from 26.3% in April to 20% in July.

While hitters aren’t doing a whole lot with Timmy’s fastball, they’re not whiffing at it as much — 3.1% in July, according to TexasLeaguers.com. That whiff rate was 5.4% in April, 8.8% in May and 6.6% in June (5-6% MLB average). His changeup was whiffed at 34% in April, 24.5% in May, 30.9% in June and 24.3% this month (12.6% MLB average). The whiff rates on his breaking stuff have typically been below-average throughout the year — 8.2% for the curve (11.6% MLB average) and 10.5% for the slider (13.6%).

Given the poor run values on Lincecum’s secondary pitches and the spike in contact (particularly on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone), it’s clear that hitters haven’t been fooled as much recently when Lincecum winds up and fires. That being said, it’s imperative to not make a rash decision based on what may very well be a temporary dip in performance. Even the best players in the game go through stretches during which they’re not at the top of their game. Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers on the planet since 2007, and making a knee-jerk transaction at this point has the potential to backfire horribly. Keep a close eye on The Freak, but don’t freak out.

Three players with low ownership rates that should be in consideration for your team…

J.J. Hardy | SS | Twins | 9% owned

Hardy won us all over by posting a .355 wOBA back in 2008, but he followed that up with a disappointing .292 wOBA last year before bottoming out at .288 this season. He missed essentially all of May and June with a wrist issue, but he’s hit .340/.354/.447 (.352 wOBA) in 48 plate appearances since returning earlier this month. All of his power is into the gaps for doubles instead of over the fence for homers, but there’s nothing wrong with that from a shortstop. Even if he can’t maintain that pace for the rest of the season, he’ll have value while he’s hot in the short-term.

Fred Lewis | OF | Blue Jays | 6%

The Giants sure have some egg of their face after selling Lewis to the Jays earlier this season only to watch him post a .352 wOBA with ten steals. He’s hitting .284/.383/.451 with a ton of runs scored and more than a handful of steals since an early-to-mid-June cold streak, and has a whopping nine extra base hits (six doubles, one triple, two homers) in his last dozen games. Here’s a great opportunity to buy low on steals, runs, and even some power without compromising batting average.

J.J. Putz | RP | White Sox | 26%

With Bobby Jenks struggling of late (nine baserunners, seven runs in his last 2.2 IP over four appearances), Ozzie Guillen declared his closer’s role “open” for the time being. Matt Thornton (60% owned) will certainly get some consideration for saves, but so will the scorching hot Putz. The former M’s closer hasn’t allowed a run since early May, a span of 25 appearances, and his numbers during that stretch are simply fantastic: .140/.169/.163 against, 9.36 K/9, 1.22 GB/FB. At some point, the saves will have to come his way. Even if they don’t, here’s a setup man worth owning.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Tyler Colvin entered spring training as a mid-range prospect looking to land a spot on the Chicago Cubs’ bench. But the 24-year-old has done far more than simply make the roster. Roaming all three outfield spots while spotting for Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome, Colvin’s bat has been +4.9 runs above average, and he has jacked 13 HR in 230 plate appearances. Is the Clemson product someone to target in keeper leagues, or his he playing over his head?

The Cubs selected Colvin with the 13th overall pick in the 2006 draft. At the time, the pick was considered a reach by Baseball America. Here’s what BA said about him at the time:

Colvin doesn’t have a tool that stands out, but as he has gained strength he has been able to repeat his smooth lefthanded swing more readily, and he’s added power to be average in that department. He’s an above-average runner and an efficient basestealer who plays a solid left field….some scouts estimated he would go in the first three rounds.

The 6-foot-3 lefty batter made his professional debut in the Short-Season Northwest League in ’06, batting .268/.313/.483 in 288 PA. In a sign of things to come, Colvin showed good power (.215 Isolated Power) and rough strike zone control (5.9 BB%, 20.8 K%). BA noted that he was young for a college draftee (turning 21 at the end of the season) and had projection in his lean 190 pound frame. They did caution that he needed to “tighten his strike zone and lay off high fastballs.”

In 2007, Colvin divided his time between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. In the FSL, he hit .306/.336/.514 in 262 PA. Colvin again hit the ball hard (.208 ISO) and didn’t whiff all that often (19.2 K%), but his plate discipline was a concern — he walked just 3.8% of the time. Upon the promotion to Double-A, the hacking heightened. Colvin drew ball four 1.9% and punched out 21.9%, putting up a .291/.313/.462 triple slash and a .170 ISO. The power was a plus, but the Francouer-sized strike zone scared scouts. “Advanced pitchers,” Baseball America predicted, “will exploit his anxiousness.”

Chicago sent Colvin back to the Smokies in 2008, and he made some modest gains in laying off junk pitches. In 602 PA, he slashed .256/.312/.424, walking 7.3%, striking out 18.7% and posting a .169 ISO. The main reason for the drop in his numbers was his BABIP — after having 34-35 percent of his balls in play fall for hits in ’07, Colvin had a .286 BABIP in ’08. BA commented that he sometimes cut himself off in his swing and “employ[ed] a dead-pull approach.” He seemed to have a timing issue at the dish, as his infield fly rate spiked — according to Minor League Splits, Colvin popped the ball up 14% in 2006 and 12.3% in 2007, but that figure rose to 20.3% during his second tour of the Southern League. A sore left elbow probably didn’t help matters any, either. Colvin underwent Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Sent back to the FSL to begin the 2009 season, Colvin hit just .250/.326/.357 in 129 PA while testing out his surgically-repaired elbow. He walked 10.1%, with a 24.1 K% and a .107 ISO. Bumped up to Double-A in late May, he resumed his high-power, low patience act — he put up a .300/.334/.524 line with a .225 ISO, while working a walk just 4.8% and striking out 18.6%. Colvin’s pop up rate fell back to 13.7% between to the levels, with BA saying he “did a better job of covering the plate, as it no longer hurt when he torqued his elbow extending his arms to hit pitches on the outer half.” Colvin even got a brief glimpse of the majors in September when the Cubs suspended Milton Bradley.

Colvin’s work in the big leagues this year offers both promise and concern. On the positive side, he’s creaming pitchers — Colvin’s got a .252 ISO, and 24.1% of the fly balls that he has hit have left the yard. All of that thunder has helped him post a .262/.314/.514 line and a .357 wOBA.

However, he’s still greatly expanding his zone. Colvin has chased 39.2% of pitches thrown off the plate, one of the 20 highest rates among batters with 230+ PA and well above the 28.8% MLB average this season. He’s also making contact 70.3% of the time, compared to the 81% MLB average. The hacking and whiffing has led to a 6.5% walk rate and a 29.5% K rate.

Colvin has been an asset at the plate while hitting for gargantuan power, and he has shown the ability to hit for solid pop in the minors. But is it really reasonable to expect a guy with a career .188 ISO on the farm to continue posting a major league ISO on par with elite major league sluggers? While Colvin should continue to drive the ball often, we should expect a good deal of regression — ZiPS projects a .168 ISO for the rest of the season, and CHONE predicts a .186 ISO.

Long-term, Colvin should hit for above-average power. But if he’s going to hold significant value to the Cubs and fantasy owners, he’s going to resist the temptation to lunge at those off-the-plate offerings.