Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh
It’s been a very frustrating season for Dotel owners. His performance has been up and down all year. Despite that fact, he remains a great reliever to have on your roster if he’s your second or third closer and you can afford to bench him during his cold spells. Dotel is currently on a hot streak right now and he saved three games this past week. He struck out five batters in 4.0 innings and did not allow an earned run.

John Axford, Milwaukee
It’s always hard to trust a rookie closer, but Axford – like Dotel – is a perfect second or third closer. The hard-throwing Canadian was a perfect 3-for-3 in saves this past week, although he gave up one earned run, three hits and two walks. He struck out six batters and now has a strikeout rate of 11.45 K/9 on the year (22.0 innings).

Billy Wagner, Atlanta
Wagner appeared in just two games this past week but he recorded a pair of saves and gave up just one hit and no walks. The veteran closer struck out six of the seven batters that he faced. Now that is dominating. Wagner did not give up a run in the month of June (11.1 innings) and he struck out 17.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago
Marmol had a rough week despite going 1-for-1 in saves and striking out seven batters in 3.2 innings. The big right-hander walked four batters and gave up five hits, which led to three runs. The walk rate of 6.38 BB/9 is definitely worrisome but the overall ERA, save total and strikeout rate are all sound. His ERA has risen each month, though, so the high pitch totals (as a result of the strikeout and walk totals) could be catching up to him.

Brian Wilson, San Francisco
Wilson had a respectable week but he had to pitch out of trouble. The right-handed closer allowed five hits and three walks in 2.1 innings this past week. He posted a 1.98 ERA in June but his xFIP was 3.88 and he gave up a lot of hits (15 in 13.2 innings).

Aaron Heilman, Arizona
With the firings of Manager A.J. Hinch and General Manager Josh Byrnes, there is a lot of change going on in Arizona. Heilman should continue to get some saves, but don’t invest too heavily in him with all the uncertainty. With that said, he did have a respectable week. He saved two games but also blew a save and took the loss despite not allowing an earned run. Heilman, 31, could potentially rack up some saves in Arizona but he’s not going to pile up strikeouts and his ERA will likely be average. Still, it’s hard to find new sources of saves this time of year.

Come talk fantasy baseball with Brian Joura and Eno Sarris at 4 pm.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of June

10. Hanley Ramirez .298-4-25-17-9

While none of these numbers jump out at you, Ramirez contributed across the board last month. And those 9 SB were the fourth-highest in MLB. Some might prefer Carl Crawford here, and their months were very similar, but I preferred Ramirez’ 11-RBI edge to Crawford’s 2-SB lead.

9. Brandon Phillips .373-2-7-22-3

Yes, the HR and RBI numbers were nothing to get excited about. But Phillips finished in the top 10 in both AVG and R. And since people think I am too negative about Phillips in general, I thought I would recognize his fine month.

8. Rafael Furcal .362-3-16-21-4

After missing most of May with a strained hamstring, Furcal had an outstanding month in June. While some observers thought his defense suffered, Furcal showed no signs of the hamstring slowing him offensively.

7. Adrian Gonzalez .363-7-23-14-0

He finished in the top 10 in each of the Triple Crown numbers, which made up for the bagel in SB

6. Dustin Pedroia .374-4-16-19-6

His fine month was cut short when Pedroia broke his left foot while fouling a ball off on the 25th. The previous day he had a 5-for-5 game with 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

5. Adrian Beltre .376-7-19-19-0

The difference between fourth and eighth on this list is very small in my opinion. You could make a case for any order and I would not disagree with you.

4. Vladimir Guerrero .356-6-24-22-0

In early June I turned down an offer of Guerrero for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since that team needs offense, I think I might have screwed up.

3. Chris Coghlan .377-3-13-30-2

He led all hitters in runs scored in June and finished fourth in AVG.

2. David Wright .404-6-29-20-4

After posting a 37.1 K% in May, Wright was down to a more manageable 24 percent rate last month. He had a .486 BABIP for the month of June along with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.

1. Josh Hamilton .454-9-31-23-3

As great as Wright was in June, Hamilton was better. He led MLB in both AVG and RBIs, finished 2nd in HR and 5th in R. He was touted as a buy candidate here in early May and I hope you were able to add him to your team.

Honorable Mention – Crawford, Reyes, Boesch, Sanchez, M. Ramirez

On September 2nd, 2009, Yunel Escobar clubbed a ninth-inning home run against the Florida Marlins. The Atlanta shortstop took a 96 MPH Leo Nunez fastball, thrown on the outside corner, over the right field fence for his 14th jack of the season.

Escobar hasn’t gone deep since. Dating back to last year, Yunel’s homerless streak has reached 377 plate appearances. 2010 has been trying offensively for the 27-year-old — Escobar’s hitting just .242/.346/.286 in 265 PA, with a .301 wOBA and a minuscule .044 ISO.

Because of his slick D (+9.5 UZR/150), he has still been an asset to the Braves with 1.2 WAR on the season. But he’s falling short of the expectations fantasy owners had. Escobar hit a combined .301/.375/.426 over the 2007-2009 seasons, posting a .352 wOBA and a .125 ISO. ZiPS thought he’d bat .294/.365/.416 in 2010, with a .347 wOBA and a .122 ISO, while CHONE projected a .294/.369/.429 triple-slash, a .352 wOBA and a .135 ISO. What’s causing Escobar’s feeble offensive output?

Part of his slump can be explained by a .279 batting average on balls in play, well below his career .319 BABIP. Escobar is hitting infield flies 12.5% this season, compared to a 4.9% career average and the 7-8% MLB average. That doesn’t help matters, but little else has changed in his batted ball profile. Escobar’s BABIP on ground balls is .204 in 2010, compared to a career .235 average. His BABIP on fly balls is .121, while his career clip is .204. His expected BABIP is .321, suggesting he has been more of a .280 hitter than a .240’s type.

That still doesn’t explain the power outage, however. No matter what field he hits to, Escobar is showing precious little pop:

Nothing at all is happening when Escobar puts the ball in the air. He had a .426 ISO on fly balls on 2007, a .339 ISO in 2008 and a .409 ISO in 2009. This season, he’s got a .089 ISO when he lofts one. He has never been much of a power hitter, but the total lack of thump is mystifying. Escobar did have a back problem in spring training and served a DL stint for left groin strain in May, so perhaps he’s still battling injury problems.

Escobar is characteristically controlling the strike zone, with a 21.7 outside swing percentage (28.5% MLB average) and a 13.2% walk rate. And, he’ll almost certainly hit for a higher average during the rest of the season. But fantasy owners would surely appreciate it if he would end that dinger drought.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Baltimore Orioles placed DH/OF Luke Scott (left hamstring) on the DL; recalled 3B Joshua Bell from Triple-A Norfolk.

It’s unclear at this point how long Bell will be in the majors — Felix Pie (back) will soon be activated from the DL, and the Orioles claim there’s no connection between Bell’s promotion and a transaction involving Ty Wigginton or Miguel Tejada. Whether this is a cup of coffee or something more substantive, Bell’s the best position prospect in the system not named Manny Machado. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers (along with RHP Steve Johnson) last July for LHP George Sherrill.

A 6-foot-3 switch-hitter, Bell was originally a fourth-round selection out of Florida in the 2005 draft. At the time he was drafted, Baseball America commended his plus power and strong arm, while noting disappointment amongst scouts that he didn’t firm up his soft frame. Bell bashed in rookie ball in ’05 and 2006 (a combined .312/.380/.486 in 454 plate appearances). In 2007, he hit .271/.331/.444 in 517 PA taken mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he got a late-season promotion to the High-A California League). Bell walked 8.1% of the time, punched out 27.1% and had a .173 Isolated Power.

Prior to the 2008 season, Bell shed 30 pounds from his burly build. He got off to a .273/.373/.455 start in 220 PA in the Cal League, drawing ball four 14.1%, whiffing 25.6% and posting a .182 ISO in a favorable offensive environment. Unfortunately, Bell suffered a right knee injury that required surgery, ending his season in late May. He returned to the field and raked in 2008, however — in 518 PA split between the Double-A Southern League (Dodgers) and Eastern League (O’s), Bell batted .295/.376/.516, with a 11.8 BB%, 21.9 K% and a .221 ISO.

Heading into 2010, Baseball America rated Bell as the second-best prospect in the Baltimore system. So did Marc Hulet, noting that former Dodgers pick possessed “an intriguing mix of power and patience.” John Sickels rated Bell fourth in the Orioles’ organization, regarding him “more as a solid regular than a future star.”

At Norfolk this season, Bell hit .266/.311/.455 in 309 PA. His plate discipline was off-kilter, as he has walked just 5.8% while striking out 26.2%. Bell still hit for power, however, with a .189 ISO. Before the season began, ZiPS projected that he’d bat .242/.316/.396 in the majors. CHONE’s updated July projections predict Bell will put up a .244/.301/.398 triple-slash as an Oriole.

Bell’s low Triple-A walk rate is worth watching, though he does have a track record of working the count well. Setting that aside for the moment, two questions remain regarding his prospect status. First, can he play third base capably? Bell’s TotalZone defensive ratings have ranged from poor to brutal, while Baseball America’s scouting reports indicate that he’s now passable after being a butcher in years past. Second, is he really a switch-hitter? According to Minor League Splits, Bell holds a career .300/.366/.509 line batting from the left side, but just a .243/.322/.365 triple-slash as a righty batter. Some have suggested that Bell should give up switch-hitting, with the thinking being that his weak right-handed stroke hurts him to the extent that he’s worse off even if he has the platoon advantage.

Assuming he hasn’t suddenly become a hacker, Bell has the profile of an eventual quality big league hitter. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, but I wouldn’t recommend him strongly in mixed formats. We don’t know how long he’ll be in the majors, and Bell’s jumpy Triple-A line suggests that he could have some problems getting acclimated to facing big league pitching.

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.

A late evening edition of the scrap heap all stars, featuring one arm and one bat…

Gio Gonzalez | SP | Athletics | 28% owned

The curveball extraordinaire has developed into a rock solid workhorse for the A’s, posting a 4.34 xFIP even though his strikeout rate has dipped below one per inning for the first time in his (relatively short) big league career. (R) ZiPS isn’t very optimistic because they expect his walk rate and BABIP to climb in the second half. I’m a fan because Gonzalez misses bats with his curve and his velocity is at an all-time high. Gio’s final two starts before the break come on the road in Cleveland and at home against the Yankees.

Andres Torres | OF | Giants | 10 %

If you can quietly stand on 2.8 WAR on July 1st, Torres is doing it. The 32-year-old switch hitting outfielder has posted a strong .272/.371/.443 triple-slash line with 35 runs scored and 14 steals, setting the table atop the Giants’ lineup. (R) ZiPS predicts a crash back to Earth (.334 wOBA) mostly because his previous big league exploits have been uninspiring. As long as he’s producing at his current levels, he’ll have value in basically all leagues and is worth a spot on your roster.

Trading season is just waiting to explode, and the Rangers made the first strike yesterday by acquiring Bengie Molina. The deal doesn’t have much impact in the grand scheme of things, but in the world of fantasy baseball it does give the elder Molina brother a little bit more value.

Obviously, he’s going from one extreme to the other in terms of run environment. The Giants as a team have a .320 wOBA and play in a park that’s been pretty neutral over the last three seasons offensively (using ESPN’s park factors), while the Rangers boast a .343 wOBA while playing a park that’s inflated offense about 12.4% over that same three year time period. That alone is going to help his fantasy offensive output, which currently stands at .257-3-17.

After three straight seasons of 80+ RBI, fantasy gold for a catcher, (R) ZiPS sees just 36 more steaks with a .265 AVG coming Molina’s way. Believe it or not, that’s the sixth highest predicted RBI total for a catcher by the system, behind the usual cast of characters (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki), and ahead of guys like Jorge Posada and Matt Wieters and Yadier Molina. If nothing else, at least the spreadsheets are on Bengie’s side.

I wouldn’t recommend relying on Molina as your top backstop (unless you’re in an exceptionally deep league, or something) just because the guy’s less that three weeks away from his 36th birthday and has one foot in the batter’s box and one in the glue factory. If you’re dealing with an injury (say, to Martinez), then Bengie will help you keep your head above water for the time being. He’s not a top fantasy backstop, but there are worse emergency options.

Atlanta Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson came into the 2010 season as a prized fantasy pick. Standing 6-6 and weighing 220 pounds, Hanson used low-90’s heat and a pair of plus breaking pitches to torture minor league hitters. The 22nd-round draft-and-follow selection from the 2005 draft punched out 10.7 batters per nine innings as a prospect, walking 3.1 per nine and compiling a 3.26 FIP. He then impressed as a rookie last season, posting a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 frames following an early June call-up. Hanson, according to KFFL, had a pre-season ADP of 64.

It seems disappointing, then, that the 23-year-old currently sports a 4.50 ERA in 90 innings pitched. Following two especially rough starts against the White Sox and the Tigers, a small number of angst-ridden owners have actually severed ties altogether — Hanson’s Yahoo ownership rate is 94 percent. What’s ailing Atlanta’s would-be ace? Nothing, really. He’s the same extremely talented, if rough-around-the-edges starter that garnered praise last season.

In 2009, Hanson had 8.18 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate. This season, he’s getting more K’s (exactly one whiff per inning), walking 3.1 per nine innings and has a 37.8% rate of grounders. Hanson got swinging strikes 9.6% as a rookie (8.6% MLB average), and 9.5% during his sophomore season (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate is a bit higher — 77.2% in ’09 compared to 78.9% this season (80-81% MLB average), and he’s getting fewer first-pitch strikes (63.4% last year and 61.2% in 2010), though that’s still well above the 58-59% MLB average. Hanson’s xFIP is 4.11 this year, after he posted a 4.03 xFIP in 2009.

The main reasons for the wide disparity in Hanson’s ERA over the 2009 and 2010 seasons are his BABIP and strand rate. Last season, Hanson had a .280 BABIP. That’s not ridiculously low, given that he’s a pitcher who gives up a high proportion of fly balls. Fly balls, while far more harmful overall than grounders, have a lower BABIP than worm burners. In 2010, Hanson has been victimized by a .347 BABIP. That’s going to come down significantly — Hanson’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .292 BABIP.

His rate of leaving runners on base was very high last year (80.3%) and has declined to 69.8%. With runners on base in 2009, Hanson had 6.75 K/9, 4.22 BB/9 and a 4.81 xFIP, but he managed to avoid trouble due to a .230 BABIP. This year, he’s got 7.32 K/9, 3.66 BB/9 and a 4.63 xFIP, but his BABIP with men on has spiked to .342. Odds are, Hanson’s LOB rate remains closer to his current mark than that lofty ’09 figure, perhaps climbing to the low-seventies.

In both 2009 and 2010, Hanson has posted home run per fly ball rates well below the 11% MLB average — 6.9% last season, and 6.4% in his second go-around the majors. Turner Field did suppress home runs per fly ball hit by five percent over the 2006-2009 seasons, so it’s reasonable to expect his HR/FB rate to be slightly under the big league average. But he’s likely going to serve up more homers during the second half.

For the rest of 2010, I’d expect Hanson’s BABIP to greatly decline, his HR/FB to rise and his rate of stranding runners to remain close to where it currently is. He doesn’t have the skill-set of a sub-three’s ERA pitcher (who does?), but he’s also better than that 4.50 ERA indicates. At 23, with basically a season’s worth of innings under his oft-adjusted belt, Hanson’s pitching like a high-three’s-to-low-four’s ERA starter. That’s impressive, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him improve upon that level of performance as he gains more experience.