Taking on the Cincinnati Reds on the Fourth of July, Ted Lilly got lit up. The 34-year-old lefty was lashed for nine runs in 6.2 frames, serving up four home runs. But, even after that drubbing, Lilly is seemingly enjoying another quality season. After opening season on the DL while recovering from off-season surgeries on his left shoulder and left knee, Lilly has a 3.76 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched. Look a little deeper, though, and there are concerns about his waning ability to fool hitters.

Like usual, Lilly is doing a fantastic job of throwing strikes. Placing 54.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (47.2% MLB average this season), Theodore Roosevelt is getting a first pitch strike 62.4% of the time (58.6% MLB average). He’s walking just 2.12 batters per nine innings. However, Lilly isn’t inducing as many whiffs this season. His swinging strike rate, which sat around 9.5-9.6% over the past two seasons, is 7.6% in 2010 (the MLB average has ranged from 8.3-8.6% over that time frame). Lilly’s contact rate was slightly below the 81% MLB average in ’08 and ’09, but batters are connecting 84.1% of the time this season.

Considering the tame velocity on Lilly’s fastball, you might assume that hitters rarely come up empty against the pitch. But that isn’t the case, as Lilly’s “heater” has generally displayed excellent whiff rates. In 2010, the whiff rate on his fastball is still above-average, but not to the same extent as in ’08 and ’09. Lilly’s low-80’s slider, slooow curve and high-70’s change haven’t induced many whiffs in recent years, and batters are missing those pitches even less this year. He’s throwing strikes with all his offerings, but he’s not getting hitters to come up empty:

(Pitch F/X Data from TexasLeaguers.com)

Given these trends, it’s not surprising that Lilly’s falling short of his projected K rate — ZiPS had a 7.54 K/9 pre-season punch out rate and CHONE predicted 7.75 K/9, but Lilly is whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings. His fastball is averaging 85.9 MPH this season, a tick to two ticks slower than in recent seasons. The pitch has gained some speed in recent outings, though:

Lilly’s average fastball velocity by month (Baseball Info Solutions Pitch Data)

April: 85.1 MPH
May: 85.2 MPH
June: 86.5 MPH

(July’s velocity is not yet available, but TexasLeaguers’ Pitch F/X data had him sitting at 86.7 MPH).

Lilly’s current xFIP is 4.64, his highest mark since a 2005 season cut short by shoulder and biceps injuries. His .249 BABIP is fifth-lowest among qualified MLB starters. It’s true, Lilly has a career .284 BABIP. He’s an extreme fly ball hurler (32.4 GB% this season, 34.3 GB% career), and while fly balls are far more pernicious overall, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Lilly also gets a lot of BABIP-killing pop ups — 14.1% for his career, and an insane 21.5% this season (7-8% MLB average). But even so, it’s likely that his BABIP is closer to .300 than .250 in the second half.

Perhaps Lilly’s still rounding into form after an off-season spent rehabbing, and his recent (relative) increase in fastball velocity will lead to improved whiff rates. Hopefully that’s the case — unless Lilly starts missing more lumber, his ERA is going to rise.

A depressing season in Cleveland got considerably worse with the news that RF Shin-Soo Choo suffered a right thumb sprain diving for a ball against the Oakland A’s on Friday night. According to MLB.com’s John Barone, Choo’s bum thumb might require surgery, and the soon-to-be-28-year-old could be out until September. The covert star, ranking among the top 25 position players with 2.9 WAR, leaves behind a .286/.390/.475 line and a .383 wOBA.

With Choo on the shelf, the Indians recalled OF Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus. The PTBNL in the 2008 CC Sabathia swap will slide into the leadoff spot and patrol center field for the Tribe. Brantley, 23, possesses two traits that make him intriguing to fantasy owners — he owns the zone and he’s got great wheels.

Since making his full-season debut in 2006, the lefty batter has worked pitchers for walks, avoided whiffs and has stolen bases at a high percentage clip. Brantley batted .313/.406/.377 in 690 A-Ball plate appearances, drawing ball four 13.3% of the time, striking out 12.6% and swiping bags at a 76.4% success rate. At the Double-A Level, Mickey Brantley’s son hit .298/.382/.366 in 702 PA, with an 11.3 BB%, a 8.6 K% and an 80.4% rate of SB success. Over the past two years at Triple-A, Brantley’s got a .284/.364/.377 slash, while walking 10.9%, punching out 10.7% and coming up safe 85.1% of the time that he attempts a steal.

However, the 6-2, 200 pound Brantley rarely drives the ball — his Isolated power was .064 in A-Ball, .068 in Double-A and .093 in Triple-A. Before the 2010 season, Baseball America said that Brantley “doesn’t use his legs much in his swing,” but claimed that more pop could come if he learns to leverage his lower half when he takes a cut.

What can we expect from Brantley now that he’s back in the big leagues? He has a .270/.321/.304 line and a .278 wOBA in very limited playing time (161 PA) over the past two seasons. Brantley’s got a .276/.343/.357 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .324 wOBA. CHONE has a .277/.347/.377 projection for the remainder of the 2010 season. Per Minor League Splits, Brantley’s work with the Clippers this season translates to a .294/.356/.370 showing in the majors.

Equipped with excellent strike zone awareness as well as speed that translates into production on the bases and in the field, Brantley is well worth a pickup in AL-only leagues. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he at least occasionally drive the ball to keep pitchers from pounding the zone against him? If the worst possible outcome for the opposition is a single that skirts by the third baseman, Brantley’s impressive minor league walk rates might not come with him to the show.

Brantley’s recall also leaves Austin Kearns, Trevor Crowe and Shelley Duncan competing for two starting spots on most nights. Kearns has experienced something of a rebound after two lifeless, injury-marred seasons — he’s hitting .271/.354/.417 and has a .344 wOBA. The former Red and National could be trade bait this month. Crowe, 26, has done little to inspire confidence over the past two years. The 2005 first-round pick out of Arizona has a .245/.294/.337 line in 407 PA in 2009 and 2010, showing little in the way of secondary skills (6.1 BB%, .092 ISO). A long-time minor league slugger with the Yankees, Duncan has the best offensive projections among these three…

…but he’s also a 6-foot-5 leviathan projected to be a brutal defender by CHONE (-6 runs for the rest of the year; Kearns comes in at average in a corner spot and Crowe has a +4 rating). It’s doubtful that any of the three have significant fantasy value.

Some pre-All Star break changes to a few rotation spots…

Felix Doubront | Red Sox | 0% owned

All Star Clay Buchholz hit the disabled list with a hamstring issue, convenient timing for the Red Sox since he’s only likely to miss one start because of off days and the break. Doubront made a solid but unspectacular start against the Dodgers a few weeks ago, allowing three earned runs and eight baserunners in five innings of work. The hard throwing lefty gets the suddenly surging Rays (35 runs scored in their last six games) on Tuesday, and I can’t in good conscience advise starting a rookie on the road against a powerhouse team.

Barry Enright | Diamondbacks | 0%

A personal fave, Enright took the place of Dontrelle Willis in Arizona’s rotation, then went out and threw five innings of one run ball in St. Louis. The righthander’s minor league career featured very little in the way of strikeouts until this season (8.0 K/9), though he’s always been stingy with the free pass (1.9 BB/9). He strikes me as a lesser version of teammate Ian Kennedy, basically a more hittable and more traditional physically (6-foot-3, 220 lbs.). I like him as a matchup starter in an NL-only setup, though there’s no telling how many wins you’ll get with that bullpen behind him. Enright will start at home against the Cubs and Marlins before the break.

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 61%

Back from a hamstring issue at the expense of Kenshin Kawakami (to the bullpen!), Jurrjens won’t, or at least shouldn’t be the 2.60 ERA guy he was in 2009 this year. The peripherals just didn’t line up. There was some BABIP (.273) and LOB% (79.4%) luck mixed in with the relatively low K/9 (6.36) and solid BB/9 (3.14), and xFIP had him at 4.34. I wouldn’t expect much more than a low-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way, especially after the injury. There’s value in that, but his perceived value seems to exceed his actual value. Jurrjens will pitch in Philadelphia in his last remaining start before the break.

Marc Rzepczynski | Blue Jays | 1%

Shaun Marcum is enjoying a fine first season back from Tommy John surgery (2.0 WAR), but he had to hit the disabled list with some elbow inflammation. Rzepczynski will fill in during his absence, though he could have had himself a rotation spot out of Spring Training if he didn’t break a finger trying to field a comebacker with his left (throwing) hand. Anyway, he was fantastic in 11 starts for Toronto last year (3.70 xFIP, 1.1 WAR) and strong in nine minor league starts this year, and should be good for on okay ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way. Not a fantasy star, but a viable option. Rzepcynski starts at home against the lefty heavy Twins on Wednesday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

A little later in the day than you’re used to, but it will be worth the wait. I promise.

My Hero
Carlos Santana

That’s right. Santana has been tremendous, and while our sample size is small, I have no worries about his ability to keep it up. I’d like the K-rate to drop a couple percent, but I suppose we can live for only league average in one category. Personally, I am going to love paring him with Pujols in my keeper league.

Big Three
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann

Victor’s injury hampers his value, so he slides to number three.

Power. So Much Power
Miguel Olivo
Mike Napoli
John Buck

I’ve given up on trying to predict a batting average drop for John Buck. He had a BABIP below .300 in June, yet hit .270. Looks like he’s for real, and I’m buying in.

Happy to Have
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Miguel Montero
Buster Posey
Geovany Soto

Montero may have a small sample, but it’s a great one. He’s hitting over 30% line drives, and has cut his K-rate while raising his BB-rate. He’s not going to hit .394 all year (.441 BABIP), but his line will be better than it was last year.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Matt Wieters
John Jaso
Rod Barajas
Ivan Rodriguez
Ronny Paulino

Jack isn’t very picky when it comes to his catchers. Jaso was getting calls to move up, but as our sample grew we learned more and more, and my expectations didn’t really change.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Russell Martin
Carlos Ruiz
Nick Hundley
Yadier Molina
Jason Kendall
A.J. Pierzynski

Bengie’s arrival in Texas should help his numbers a bit, so don’t be afraid to give him a shot. I considered Jason Castro, but I don’t see him doing much this year. He’s a better option in NL-only keeper leagues, but that’s the only place I’d give him a shot.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Last year Bumgarner had velocity issues, with reports of his fastball topping out in the mid-80s. In his two starts in the majors this year, he has averaged 90.3, which is still not the mid-90s he was alleged to have thrown 2-3 years ago, but still a step in the right direction. Bumgarner was 7-1 at Triple-A Fresno, boosted in large part by allowing just 5 HR in 82.2 IP. He has not been so lucky with the gopher ball in the majors, as he has a 16.7 HR/FB ratio in his two starts with the Giants. But Bumgarner survived a rough debut, having to face the Red Sox and a road start in Colorado. He gave the club innings and fantasy owners a nice WHIP (1.14) and a decent K/9 of 6.43. Bumgarner’s xFIP is 3.89 and if he can give fantasy players that ERA the rest of the way, he will be a nice pickup.

Melky Cabrera – Atlanta Braves (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing to get excited about but Cabrera has done quite well since Nate McLouth went on the disabled list. Since June 10th, a stretch of 22 games, Cabrera is batting .284 with 7 R and 9 RBIs. While those are still not eye-popping numbers, they represent a huge improvement over what McLouth gave Atlanta, perhaps an indication Cabrera will keep playing even after McLouth gets activated. Also, for a guy available in most leagues, those are numbers that could help, especially in NL-only formats.

Vicente Padilla – Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Since coming off the DL, Padilla has made three starts and the last two have been very good. After giving up 4 ER in 5.1 IP against the Red Sox in his first action in nearly two months, Padilla has tossed 7 IP in back-to-back outings. In those 14 IP, he has allowed 3 ER and has 12 Ks and 2 BB in starts against the Yankees and Giants. Padilla hit 95.5 with his fastball in his last outing and he has a full repertoire of pitches to use against batters, including a sinker, slider and curve.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Carl Pavano
OAK – Trevor Cahill
WAS – Livan Hernandez
SEA – Erik Bedard
DET – Andrew Oliver
CIN – Travis Wood

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Kevin Slowey
DET – Armando Galarraga
MIL – David Bush
CIN – Edinson Volquez
SEA – Ryan Rowland-Smith
WAS – J.D. Martin

Pavano has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gone 4-0 in that stretch. Both his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 2009 numbers, but Pavano has seen his ERA drop from 5.10 last year to 3.30 in 2010. He’s been lucky with a .261 BABIP but he has also upped his GB% to 47.6 percent, his highest since 2005.

Cahill has a 2.24 K/BB ratio, up from 1.25 a season ago. While both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher around a 4.00 ERA, Cahill’s actual mark is 2.74. He beat both his FIP and xFIP in 2009 and may turn into the rare pitcher who can do it on a consistent basis. A 54.3 GB% certainly helps and a .232 BABIP also holds down Cahill’s overall numbers.

Hernandez continues to confound the experts, who predict him to collapse virtually every outing. One thing that Hernandez does exceptionally well is take advantage of his home ballpark. He is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in Nationals Park. On the road Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Padres and Giants.

Bedard is slated to come off the DL and make his 2010 season debut. He is trying to make it back from labrum surgery and has not pitched in the majors since July 25th of last year. Assuming no further setbacks, Bedard will get two home starts, but will have to square off against Zack Greinke and C.C. Sabathia.

Oliver was a second-round draft pick in 2009. He started his professional career in Double-A Erie this year and went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA. In 77.1 IP, he had 70 Ks and 25 BB. Oliver has pitched well in his two starts for the Tigers but has yet to come away with a Win. A fastball-slider pitcher, Oliver has averaged 93.5 with his heater so far but his success will rise or fall with his breaking pitch.

Wood went 13-5 between Double and Triple-A last year and was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year at Louisville. He made his major league debut July 1st against the Cubs and turned in a Quality Start, as he allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP but came away with a no-decision. Wood averaged 90.4 with his fastball but profiles as more of a finesse pitcher, as he also throws a cutter, change, slider and curve.

Even after last night’s 2-for-6 performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which included an opposite field homer hit off Rodrigo Lopez, Matt Kemp is falling short of expectations. His defensive struggles have been well documented, but he’s also having a mild season at the plate. Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected Kemp to bat .300/.354/.501 and post a .374 wOBA. CHONE predicted a .305/.358/.501 line and a .376 wOBA. Instead, L.A.’s center fielder holds a .265/.324/.473 triple-slash, with a .337 wOBA. Why has Kemp’s lumber been lacking?

Despite the downturn in his slash stats, there are some positives to be found. Before the season began, I highlighted Kemp’s offensive maturation. Kemp gradually displayed better plate discipline, upping his walk rate each season from 2007-2009. That trend has continued, as he’s walking 8.2% of the time in 2010. The 25-year-old isn’t chasing pitches out of the zone near as much as he used to:

In addition to showing better patience, Kemp is hitting for plenty of power — his ISO is a career-best .208, and his 16.5% home run per fly ball rate is his highest mark since his first brief stint in the majors back in 2006.

So, Kemp’s secondary skills are better than ever. Why, then, is his line lethargic? He is punching out 28.4% of the time, his highest figure since ’06. Kemp’s not making as much contact on in-zone pitches this season — his Z-Contact rate is 77.8%. It’s true that Kemp’s in-zone contact rate has always been below the 88% big league average, but his 2010 rate comes in below even his 81.8% career average.

Also, Kemp’s BABIP is .321 this year. For reference, his career BABIP is .355, and CHONE (.359 pre-season BABIP projection) and ZiPS (.361) thought he’d post a BABIP around that mark. Kemp’s rate of hits on balls put in play has varied wildly over the course of his career, while his underlying skill set hasn’t changed much. Here are his BABIP figures from 2006-2010, compared to his expected BABIP totals. xBABIP is based on a hitter’s rate of home runs, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Kemp’s actual BABIP is 13 points lower than his xBABIP this season. It’s worth noting again that the simple xBABIP tool linked to above uses stolen bases as a measure of a player’s speed. Speed has a positive correlation with BABIP. That could work against Kemp this season — after being an adept base thief in 2008 and 2009, his SB performance has been terrible so far.

The two previous seasons, Kemp was an asset to fantasy owners in the stolen base department. In 2008, Kemp swiped 35 bases and got caught stealing 11 times, a 76.1% success rate. He then stole 34 bases in 42 tries last year (81% success rate). In 2010, he has 10 steals and 10 CS apiece.

Baseball Prospectus’ base running stats tell the story. Here are Kemp’s Equivalent Stolen Base Run totals over the years, showing how many runs he has added on SB attempts compared to the average player. I also included his overall Equivalent Base Running Runs figure — in addition to SB tries, this all-encompassing number includes base running advances on ground and fly ball outs, hits and other advancements on things such as passed balls and wild pitches. Kemp has cost the Dodgers on steals this year, while faring quite well in the other facets of base running:

It’s highly unlikely that Kemp has suddenly become a lousy base stealer. But the SB downturn, coupled with his defensive issues, is peculiar.

Matt Kemp has frustrated plenty of people this season, but there are plenty of reasons to expect improvement during the second half. He’s abstaining from junk pitches thrown out of the zone and displaying excellent power. His BABIP will likely climb, too. If he can put the bat on the ball more often on in-zone pitches and start sealing bases like he did in ’08 and ’09, Kemp should resume being a fantasy stalwart.

It’s just one of those things. I feel good at the plate, but I hit it right at them.

— Justin Smoak, to the Fort Worth Star Telegram

You can’t just hit the ball hard and not get any luck…. Justin is holding his own, and we’ll just leave it at that.

— Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington, to the Star Telegram

In late April, the Texas Rangers called up first baseman Justin Smoak from Triple-A Oklahoma City. The club hoped that the switch hitter’s keen strike-zone awareness and power would provide an upgrade over the scuffling Chris Davis. Smoak’s first taste of the majors has been bitter — he’s batting .207/.318/.364 in 255 plate appearances. His wOBA is .306, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is 16 percent below average (84 wRC+). That’s not quite what the Rangers thought they’d get from the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. However, both the South Carolina product and his manager are correct in a sense. Smoak’s getting some bad bounces, but he also might need to make an adjustment at the plate. Overall, he’s holding his own in the majors.

Back when the Rangers popped Smoak and handed him a $3.5 million bonus, Baseball America lauded his “superior pitch recognition.” That skill has been on full display since he signed — Smoak’s career minor league line sits at .293/.411/.461 in 599 plate appearances, with a 16% walk rate. With the Rangers, Smoak’s working the pitcher for a walk 14.1% of the time. He’s not getting a lot of pitches within the strike zone (44.7%, compared to the 47.2% MLB average), and he’s doing a good job of laying off those offerings. Smoak’s outside swing percentage is 25.7%, well below the 28.5% big league average. Adeptly discerning balls from strikes, Smoak isn’t falling behind the pitcher often — his first pitch strike percentage is just 52.2% (58.6% MLB average).

He’s also hitting for solid, if not spectacular power. The 23-year-old has a .157 Isolated Power, with 13.6% of his fly balls hit turning into home runs. Smoak’s power output in the minors wasn’t off-the-charts (.168 ISO), but that may have been the result of a rib cage injury suffered in the middle of the 2009 season. Few question the 6-4, 220 pounder’s ability to put a charge into the ball.

If Smoak’s taking his walks and showing decent pop, why is his line so lousy? The answer appears to be a combination of poor luck and perhaps a timing issue when he decides to pull the trigger.

His BABIP on the season is extremely low, at .234. Among big league hitters with at least 250 PA, Smoak has the fifth-lowest BABIP. Part of the reason for that low BABIP is that he’s hitting a bunch of pop-ups — Smoak’s infield per fly ball rate is 18.6%, the third highest rate in the majors and far higher than the 7-8% MLB average (for reference, Smoak hit pop ups 9.2% of the time in the minors). But even with that IF/FB rate, Smoak’s expected BABIP is .315.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A, Davis is hitting .340/.389/.533. Given that line, it might be tempting to make a change. That performance includes good pop (.193 ISO), but also a modest walk rate (7.4 BB%) propped up by a .420 BABIP. If the Rangers stay the course with Smoak, they’ll likely be rewarded.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Kerry Wood, Cleveland
Well, well, look who’s hot. Just when we were about to write him off, Wood is back from the dead. The former Cub went 3-for-3 in saves this past week and he struck out six batters with just one walk and one hit allowed. If Wood can continue to show improved fastball command, then he could be worth a flyer.

Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles
With Fernando Rodney around, Fuentes can never get too comfortable. However, he earned some breathing room after a stellar week in which he appeared in four games without allowing a hit or a run and he saved three games. Fuentes posted a 4.66 ERA in June but he suffered from a .344 BABIP. Rodney, meanwhile, has allowed nine hits – with just one strikeout – in his last six innings pitched.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon is one of those first-year closers that you just don’t want to put too much faith in. He’s a solid second or third option on your roster, though, and he’s coming off of a great week in which he saved three games in as many tries. Simon also recorded a win. He struck out four batters in 4.0 innings and gave up two hits and a walk.

Mariano Rivera, New York
Yawn. Next…

Jon Rauch, Minnesota
Rauch definitely did not have a terrible month, but he failed to record a save and actually blew a save on July 1 against Tampa Bay by allowing one earned run. Since June 19, Rauch has appeared in four games and has blown two saves without recording a successful conversion. His troubles, though, have not been related to the base on ball… Rauch has walked just one batter in the past 21 games.

Chris Perez, Cleveland
If Wood can continue to pitch well over the first three weeks of July, he could end up being a pretty inexpensive addition to the bullpen of a playoff-bound team. The beneficiary of such a deal would be Perez, who has been throwing well. The third-year pitcher struck out seven batters in 4.0 innings this past week. His ERA has also dipped each of the past three months from 4.05 in April to 3.09 to 2.13 in June.