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Thirteen of the 16 teams in the National League have closers with 10 or more saves so far this season. Washington’s Matt Capps continues to lead the Majors in saves, although he’s been less effective recently.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton is the most valuable reliever is 5X5 fantasy baseball right now and it’s not hard to understand why. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 13.34 K/9, an 0.95 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92. This past week, he recorded three saves in as many tries.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is currently second in the Majors in saves with 17. He also has an outstanding ERA at 1.33, although he’s giving up his fair share of hits. His strikeout rate remains strong at 11.67 K/9. He recorded three saves this past week.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson is 15-for-17 in save opportunities this season and he has a strikeout rate of 12.62 K/9. Despite the good numbers, he’s still only sixth or seventh in overall fantasy value amongst NL closers… which tells you a whole lot about the quality of the closers in the league.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez has been on a K-tear as of late with 12 strikeouts in his last six appearances. The right-hander saved two games in as many tries this past week.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Mr. K had a reserved week; the Cubs’ closer struck out just one batter in three appearances. Even so, he gave up just one hit and one (intentional) walk. All the balls put in play against Marmol this past week – save for one – were ground balls. He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner has recovered from a slow start to the season to be the second most valuable fantasy closer in the Majors. The veteran has a 4-0 record, 10 saves and a strikeout rate of 14.05 K/9. Oh, and no one can hit him (5.18 H/9), either. He went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week and recorded strikeouts on five of his nine outs.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: So much for ’09 being a fluke. The veteran right-hander has proven that he can be a legitimate closer in the NL. Franklin has 10 saves in 11 tries, although he hasn’t had an opportunity since May 20. He’s given up just two hits (and no walks) during that span, totaling 8.0 innings and five appearances.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Here are some ugly stats: 7.77 ERA, 14.73 H/9 and 4 BS. Here are some positive signs: .458 BABIP-allowed, 55 GB% and 3.56 xFIP. In other words, it’s been a rough year but Qualls isn’t as bad as he seems to be; look for a smart GM to try and acquire him to shore up the seventh/eighth innings for a playoff-bound team.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: The most impressive stat that Dotel has is the strikeout rate at 12.73 K/9. His walk rate is high, as is the hit rate. His xFIP is 4.14 and he’s giving up a ton of fly balls, as witnessed by the 26% ground-ball rate. Dotel appeared in two games this past week but did not have a save opportunity.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez continues to flash an impressive WHIP at 0.93. The King Fish also has a nice xFIP at 2.88. He made just one appearance this past week and recorded the save.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: As mentioned above, Capps hasn’t been as strong recently. This past week, he went 3-for-4 in save opportunities and gave up six hits in 3.2 innings of work. His hit rate is quite high right now at 11.05 H/9 and his BABIP-allowed sits at .361.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero continues to suffer from a high WHIP at 1.50 and ERA at 3.90, which significantly diminishes the value in his 17 saves. He made four appearances this past week and went 1-for-2 in saves opportunities while also giving up five hits and two walks in 4.0 innings.

John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Axford, 27, has been a real find for the Brewers. The Canadian hurler has a strikeout rate of 10.29 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 47%. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he’s also shown good command of two breaking balls (slider and curve). He’s gone 4-for-4 in save opportunities since replacing Trevor Hoffman.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom continues to see a lot of balls find holes, as he has a BABIP-allowed of .372 and a hit rate of 10.94 H/9. The right-hander was pretty good this past week with three saves in as many tries.

Brad Lidge and Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Lidge, back from injury, went 2-for-2 in save opportunities and appeared in three games without allowing a run. Contreras currently sports a K/BB rate of 5.00 and he’s a perfect 3-for-3 as the club’s closer. This past week, he appeared in three games but did not have a save opportunity.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: With Huston Street currently on a minor-league rehab assignment, Corpas’ window of opportunity could be a small one. The young hurler appeared in four games this past week and went 2-for-3 in save opportunities. Impressively, he hasn’t walked a batter in 14 appearances.

There is currently a four-way tie for the most saves at the top of the American League. There are 11 pitchers that have 10 or more saves.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Not only did the Braves organization give away its 2010 first round draft pick to sign Billy Wagner, it basically gave away Rafael Soriano, who has basically been just as valuable this season (from a 5X5 fantasy perspective). Soriano is currently the top ranked reliever in the AL and has yet to blow a save this season in 15 tries. He pitched just one-third of an inning this past week.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde is currently the second most valuable reliever is standard 5X5 leagues despite pedestrian strikeout numbers; he’s aided by an outstanding ERA and a strong WHIP. His xFIP sits at 3.56, and he’s been helped by a .136 BABIP and 96.6 LOB%.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Rivera has come on strong as of late and now has 14 saves – and he’s 7-for-7 in saves since May 21. That’s also the last time he allowed an earned run.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz is tied for the league lead in saves and he’s been the third most valuable AL closer so far this season. After being worked pretty hard recently, Feliz appeared in just two games this past week and recorded one save.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria continues to put up strong numbers. His K/BB rate sits at 5.00 and he has an 11.91 K/9 strikeout rate. Soria went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week but he was touched up for two runs against Minnesota on June 10.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Although he sits atop the league in saves, Rauch is a little ways down the chart in terms of overall fantasy value. This comes as a result of his low strikeout rate, as well as a modest WHIP and ERA. He went 2-for-2 this past week in save opportunities.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey’s save numbers have improved but something is going to give unless he improves these three numbers: 5.76 K/9, 38.7 GB%, and .227 BABIP. He’s putting a lot of balls in play and a lot of those are in the air; so far, though, the home run ball has not hurt him. Bailey did not record a save this past week and he took a loss against the Twins on June 4.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: You have to wonder is Papelbon is hurting. The right-handed veteran reliever has a career strikeout rate of 10.20 but it currently sits at 7.13 K/9. As well, his walk rate has gone from 1.04 in ’08 to 3.18 to 4.50 BB/9 in ’10. He’s struggled mightily with his previously plus fastball, and his numbers have been helped significantly by a .198 BABIP. His xFIP sits at 5.02.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks went 2-for-2 in save opportunities this past week and did not allow a run. He also hasn’t given up a walk in five games, and his strikeout rate remains strong at 11.05 K/9.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Things just aren’t looking good for Wood, who has a 9.58 ERA and a walk rate of 6.10 BB/9. He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week. Cleveland clearly needs to try something different, which could include handing the save opportunities back to Chris Perez.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. On of the closer leaders for much of April and into May, Aardsma has fallen on hard times and his ERA is up to 5.21. He was touched up again on June 6 by the Angels for three runs in two-thirds of an inning. Aardsma has recorded just one save since May 26.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: The Angels’ closer has had a rough year. He’s blown three saves in 11 tries and his ERA currently sits a 5.52. Fuentes also has an incredibly-low 18.9% ground-ball rate, which has led to some fairly pronounced home-run issues (3.07 HR/9). However, he’s currently posting one of the highest strikeout rates of his career (11.66 K/9).

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: The walk rate has spiked all the way up to 5.88 BB/9 and Gregg cannot make it through an inning without putting at least two base runners on (each of his past four appearances) but went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week. Interestingly, almost all of his struggles this season have come against the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay, New York, Boston… and then Seattle).

David Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The game of musical closer chairs continues, although the organization may have finally gotten it right this time. I’m one of the bigger David Hernandez fans out there and I think interim manager Juan Samuel has made a smart decision; Hernandez has always appeared well-suited for a relief role.

Marlins’ starter Ricky Nolasco was a trendy sleeper pick among the stathead crowd coming into the season … well, sleeper makes him sounds like a big secret. I suppose he was already a well known guy, but not everyone looked past the 5.06 ERA and saw the gaudy peripheral stats that suggested damn near ace-level production. Semantics.

Anyway, Nolasco is producing almost exactly as we expected him to this season. His walks are super low (1.82 BB/9), he’s generating close to 40% ground balls (39.2%, to be exact), just about 11% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, and his strand rate is right around the league average following last season’s unfathomably low 61.0% LOB%. All that is nice, but there’s one big red flag here: he’s not striking out nearly as many batters.

After a studly 9.49 K/9 last year (7.88 in 2008), Nolasco is down basically three full strikeouts to 6.54 K/9 this year. Let’s cut right to the chase and dig into the Plate Discipline stats (click for larger)…

You can see that Nolasco isn’t generating as many swings and misses this season, which is to be expected with such a dramatic drop in strikeout rate. His O-Contact% has taken an extreme jump up to 70.1% this year, so pitches that were being swung through last year are being put in play or fouled off this year. Make sure to note that the league as a whole is not only swinging at more pitches out of the zone this year, but also making more contact with them as well. Nolasco’s jump in O-Contact% is still extreme even considering the league-wide change.

Pitch Type Values tell us that Nolasco’s fastball has been a bit more effective this year while his slider has been slightly more ineffective, though his split-finger fastball has gone from 1.95 runs above average last year (per 100 thrown) to 1.05 runs below average this year. A drop of three runs per 100 pitches is significant, and indicates that the pitch might be the root of Nolasco’s strikeout problems.

The righty’s fastball velocity is down exactly one mile an hour to 90.5 while the splitter is down close to three miles an hour to 84.9, so perhaps there’s too much separation between the pitches. The reduced velocity has altered the movement of the pitch, certainly not unexpected. It’s lost close to five inches of horizontal movement and close to an inch and a half of vertical falling off the tableness (looking at some other splitters from around the league, it doesn’t appear to be a calibration issue, though that always remains a possibility). Nolasco’s splitter still features some fade and sink, but not nearly as much as it did a year ago.

Unsurprisingly, he throws the pitch primarily in two strike counts, so it’s possible the slower, straighter version of his splitter isn’t getting it done. I don’t have to tell you that correlation =/= causation, so this is far from proof. Just a theory. Whatever’s going on, Nolasco’s strikeout rate has dropped by a third, and his overall performance has suffered as a result.

(R) ZiPS calls for a 131 IP of 4.26 ERA (3.69 FIP) and 7.97 K/9 ball the rest of the way, so it sees an improvement coming. He still has trade value based on reputation alone, but for now it might be best to sit him against teams that do an especially good job of getting the bat on the ball. I don’t recommend dropping him outright unless you’re in an especially shallow league.

Before the baseball season starts, all fantasy owners are reading and getting advice from multiple sources. If you’re reading this, one of those sources is me. I said all kinds of things before the season started, and it’s about time that we reflected on some of the advice I gave. Don’t worry, I’m not just going to show you the things I got right. That wouldn’t be fair. Below is a list of players, the advice I gave at the time, how they are performing thus far, and a quick comment.

Tony Gwynn, Jr.
“If he can get ample playing time, a .270 average with 15 steals is not out of the question”
162 PA, .210 AVG, .248 BABIP, 9 SB (2 CS)
He may not get the average up this year, but I feel pretty good about this one.

Rafael Furcal
“When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.”
157 PA, .294 AVG, .339 BABIP, 9 SB (1 CS)
Who’s laughing now? Not me.

Juan Pierre
“A .290 average with 45+ steals is completely reasonable to expect in 2010.”
256 PA, .257 AVG, .276 BABIP, 14.8 LD%, 23 SB (6 CS)
How did I know he was going to stop hitting line drives?

Johan Santana
“CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, while FANS and Marcel project it to hover around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?”
78.1 IP, 6.55 K/9, 2.38 K/BB, 2.79 ERA, 4.49 xFIP
I didn’t see the K-rate falling this far, but it doesn’t surprise me. His fastball velocity is below 90 mph for the first time.

Stephen Strasburg > Aroldis Chapman
“Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him…Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in”
Chapman in minors: 54.2 IP, 61 K, 34 BB, 4.11 FIP
Don’t need to list Strasburg’s numbers because, well, you should have heard about them already.

Javier Vazquez
“Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.”
56 IP, 5-5, 8.36 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 1.77 HR/9, 4.56 xFIP
How did I know he was going to start walking people? He’s struck out 16 and only walked 5 in his last two starts.

Brandon Inge
“I see a .250 average with 22 homers next season, with another 75+ RBI year”
229 PA, 6 HR, .242 AVG, .288 BABIP
Not shocked to see the HR rate drop, and his average is held up by a significantly increased LD%.

Jason Hammel > Jeff Niemann
“Why is Niemann being drafted so much higher than Hammel? For one, I would venture a guess that the old stigma behind Coors Field is catching up to Hammel. His numbers are very similar to Niemann’s, although his stuff graded out lower according to our Pitch Value data. Hammel at 362 is an infinitely better value than Niemann at 213, and I think Hammel may move up some boards as the season draws nearer. Hammel isn’t an ace, but neither is Niemann”
Niemann: 80 IP, 6-0, 5.74 K/9, 2.32 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 45.1% GB .226 BABIP, 4.43 xFIP
Hammel: 51.2 IP, 3-3, 7.32 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, 5.23 ERA, 46.6% GB, .347 BABIP, 3.74 xFIP
Got criticized about this in the chat a few weeks ago, and I’m still feeling good about this prediction.

Here’s one position player and one pitcher that should be available on waivers and could provide a boost to your team…

Angel Pagan | OF | Mets | 29% owned

It’s hard to believe that Gary Matthews Jr. not only started in centerfield on Opening Day for the Amazin’s, but that he started four of the team’s first six games. He’s since been exiled to DFAville, all made possible by Pagan’s emergence as an All Star level centerfielder. His .354 wOBA and +6.9 UZR are good for 2.1 WAR after 58 team games, and (R) ZiPS projects more of the same the rest of the way, a .354 wOBA with ten steals.

Carlos Beltran has been playing in games down in Extended Spring Training as he rehabs from knee surgery, but it’ll be impossible to justify sitting Pagan when he does return, even with Jeff Francoeur’s recent two week tear. Pagan offers batting average and a decent amount of steals, and his new lineup spot (second) should lead to some more runs scored as well.

Felipe Paulino | SP | Astros | 3%

One thing you’re not going to get with Astros’ pitchers is wins, but their starters can still help you out in other categories. The hard-throwing Paulino – only Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander top his 95.5 mph heater – sports a rock solid 3.82 ERA even though he’s stranded less than 65% of the runners he’s allowed to reach base. Once that regresses to the 71.8% league average, Paulino’s looking at an ERA much closer to his FIP (3.28) and tRA (3.18).

As hard throwers tend to do, Paulino walks a ton of guys (4.54 BB/9) and has a pedestrian WHIP (1.38), but his strikeout rate (8.12 K/9) is pretty darn good. (R) ZiPS isn’t kind here, seeing a 5.25 ERA (4.35 FIP) with a slight dip to 7.88 K/9 the rest of the way. Paulino’s next start comes in Kansas City next week, so if nothing else he’s should offer value for one more start.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Pittsburgh Pirates recalled OF Jose Tabata from Triple-A Indianapolis.

Tabata, 21, is a polarizing prospect. His backers see a precocious talent who makes score of contact and possesses more athleticism than one would expect from his compact frame. Those more skeptical of Tabata’s upside point out uncertainty about his age and limited power potential.

Signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela for $550,000 in 2004, Tabata burst on to the prospect scene by showing an exciting blend of hitting skills and speed in A-Ball over the 2006 and 2007 seasons. As a 17-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, he hit .298/.377/.420 in 363 plate appearances. He had decent strike zone control (8.3 BB%, 20.7 K%) and a pinch of power (.122 ISO), while swiping 15 bases in 20 attempts. In the High-A Florida State League in ’07, Tabata had a .307/.371/.392 triple-slash in 456 PA. He walked 7.3%, punched out 16.9% and had a .086 ISO, going 15-for-22 on the base paths.

Those numbers don’t stand out at first glance, but are more impressive when the context is considered. Tabata was (apparently) the same age as high school sophomore in ’06 and a junior in ’07, and the FSL is a pitcher-friendly circuit. Baseball America rated Tabata as the 27th best talent in the minors prior to 2007 and the 37th-rated prospect leading up to 2008.

That ’08 season wouldn’t be a banner one for him, though. Bumped up to Double-A, Tabata posted feeble numbers at the plate, angered the Yankees by leaving the park during an April game and tweaked his hamstring. He was shipped to Pittsburgh (along with Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens) that July for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. Tabata picked up the pace in the Eastern League after the trade, finishing the season with a .277/.345/.388 line in 442 PA. He walked 8.1%, struck out 17% and had a .111 ISO, with 18 SB and two CS. BA knocked him down its list somewhat, but Tabata still cracked the top 100 (#75).

Last year, the 5-11, 210 pound righty batter began the year back at Altoona. Though he was caught red-handed on the bases often (7 SB, 6 CS), Tabata hit .303/.370/.404 in 254 PA. His secondary skills were again mild (7.9 BB%, .111 ISO), but he punched out just 11% of the time.

Tabata was promoted to the Triple-A International League later that summer, and that’s where he opened 2010 as well. In 400 combined PA at the level, he owns a .296/.358/.419 line, with an 8.3% rate of free passes taken, a 14.8% K rate and a .123 ISO. Happily for fantasy folks, Tabata has recovered his base stealing prowess (29 SB, 8 CS, a 78.4% success rate).

Assuming the right hamstring cramp he suffered last night isn’t serious, Tabata figures to see a lot of playing time — Jeff Clement has been banished to Triple-A, and Garrett Jones will man first base more frequently.

His long-term value is hard to gauge, however. Is Tabata 21? Not even the Pirates seem to know for sure. Will he ever hit more than the occasional double? He doesn’t have a projectable frame, as he’s under six feet and has already filled out physically. Will his stolen base totals translate to the highest level? Tabata’s not a speed demon, with tick-above-average wheels. There are a wide range of possibilities here.

Tabata’s someone to watch in NL-only leagues, and he has some value in keeper formats. But keep in mind that there are a plethora of potential outcomes — he could be anything from a 21-year-old with room to develop offensively to a maxed-out 24-year-old who needs to play plus defense to be worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup.

Few players in recent memory have disappointed more than Delmon Young. The first overall pick in the 2003 draft hammered minor league pitching to the tune of .318/.363/.518, displaying top-shelf power while taking on pitchers several years his senior. His plate approach was raw (6.3 BB%). But Young was ranked as a top three prospect by Baseball America each season from 2004 to 2007, and he elicited Albert Belle comparisons for his ability to drive the ball.

Young got a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay back in 2006, with a .316/.336/.476 line in 131 plate appearances. He swung at positively everything (50.3 O-Swing%, 0.8 BB%), and his BABIP was .370. But even so, it’s impressive for a 20-year-old to manage an above-average big league performance with the lumber (.343 wOBA, 110 wRC+). Unfortunately, the righty batter showed little improvement over the next three seasons:

2007: .288/.316/.408, .315 wOBA, 91 wRC+
2008: .290/.336/.405, .324 wOBA, 99 wRC+
2009: .284/.308/.425, .312 wOBA, 90 wRC+

That weak hitting, coupled with clunky defense, made Young worth a combined -1.7 Wins Above Replacement. In 2010, the 24-year-old Twin is batting .274/.314/.474, with a wOBA (.338) and wRC+ (109) better than the league average for the first time since he debuted with the Rays. Is he finally making some progress? To an extent, yes.

Young remains an ultra-aggressive batter, swinging at far more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone than the big league average. After hacking at 39.8% of off-the-plate pitches from 2007-2009 (25% average during those seasons), Delmon is going after 38.8% of out-of-zone offerings in 2010 (28% MLB average). His walk rate is up, though we’re speaking in relative terms — Young is drawing ball four 6.7% of the time, compared to 4.2% from ’07 to ’09.

So, his plate approach still leaves much to be desired. But Young has made strides in terms of making contact and hitting for power. His contact rate on in-zone pitches was 85.1% from 2007-2009 (88% MLB average) and his overall contact rate was 75.1% (81% MLB average). He’s connecting 89.6% of the time when pitchers give him something over the plate this year, and 83.1% overall. Young’s whiff rate is down to 12.6% in 2010, after peaking at 23.3% last season.

Once dubbed an “intimidating presence” at the plate by Baseball America, Young rarely went deep or split the gaps in years past. After posting a .159 ISO in his big league stint in ’06, he had a .119 ISO in 2007, and a .115 ISO in 2008. Young improved somewhat in 2009 (.142 ISO), and he has a solid .200 ISO this season. The big difference? He has stopped chopping the ball into the dirt so often:

2007: 46.3 GB%, 32.6 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2008: 55.2 GB%, 27.8 FB%, 7.6 HR/FB%
2009: 49.7 GB%, 34.1 FB%, 11.4 HR/FB%
2010: 45.3 GB%, 38.4 FB%, 11.5 HR/FB%

Fewer grounders and more fly balls — that’s clearly a good trade-off when it comes to hitting for power. It’s pretty hard to get an extra-base hit on a Baltimore Chop. The AL slugging percentage on grounders has ranged from .238 to .262 over the past three seasons. The AL slugging percentage on fly balls has been between .566 and .603. Young’s career slugging percentage on grounders is .274, and his career SLG% on fly balls is .610.

Fly balls do fall for hits on balls put in play less often than ground balls, which partially contributes to Young’s .270 BABIP on the season. But even with a higher fly ball rate, his expected BABIP (xBABIP) is .315. Chances are, Young finishes the season hitting closer to .290 than .270.

Overall, there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about Delmon Young. He’s still getting himself out too often. However, he is starting to tap into the power that he displayed as a prized prospect. Young has a long way to go to ever be an offensive star, but he’s at least keeping his head above water after a few seasons of sub-replacement-level play.

A night after getting mauled by cyborg..er Stephen Strasburg, the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted RHP Brad Lincoln to start Wednesday night against the Nationals. Two roster spots were opened up yesterday — 1B Jeff Clement was sent to Triple-A Indianapolis and LHP Jack Taschner was DFA’d — and the other spot is expected to go to OF Jose Tabata. If that move becomes official, look for a post on Tabata tomorrow.

Lincoln, 25, was the fourth overall pick in the 2006 draft. The University of Houston product starred on the mound and in the batter’s box for the Cougars, but a power pitching arsenal assured that he’d leave the bat behind as a pro. Here was Baseball America’s scouting report of Lincoln at the time:

He sits at 91-93 mph with good life on his fastball, touches 95-96 most games and has peaked at 98. He holds that velocity throughout games. His curveball is equally as impressive, and he can throw it for strikes or break it out of the zone as a chase pitch. He also shows feel for a changeup that’s close to an average pitch already. Lincoln is close to big league ready and his competitive makeup means he’ll get everything out of his considerable ability.

Unfortunately, the 6-foot righty would toss just 23.2 innings as a Pirates farmhand in 2006 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery the following April. After missing the entire 2007 season, Lincoln returned in 2008 and split his season between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Carolina League. At the lower level, he had 6.68 K/9, 0.87 B/9 and a 3.78 FIP in 62 IP. In the Carolina League, Lincoln logged 41.2 innings and had rates of 6.26 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 and a 4.23 FIP. Though he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, Lincoln was stingy with the walks and kept the ball down (a combined 50.9 GB% between the two levels, according to Minor League Splits).

In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, BA said that Lincoln’s post-Tommy John velocity returned to the 90-93 MPH range, and his hammer curve regained its bite. His changeup was said to need work, though, and he also “caught too much of the strike zone at times, making him susceptible to home runs.” (Lincoln surrendered about 1.1 HR/9 in ’08)

In ’09, Lincoln again divided his season between two levels. In the Double-A Eastern League, he whiffed 7.8 per nine, walked 2.16 and had a 2.96 FIP in 75 innings. A low homer rate (0.48 per nine) contributed to that sub-three FIP, however, and his ground ball rate dipped to 43.8%. Promoted to the Triple-A International League, Lincoln threw 61.1 innings with rates of 6.16 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 3.85 FIP. He was an extreme fly ball pitcher for the Indians, getting grounders just 34 percent.

Sent back to Indy to begin the 2010 season, Lincoln improved his K rate (7.2 per nine), kept the walks low (1.8 BB/9) and had a more neutral GB/FB profile (42.6 GB%), posting a 3.67 FIP in 68.1 IP.

While no premier prospect, Lincoln has the look of a quality mid-rotation arm. He controls his low-90’s fastball well, has an above-average curve and while his change doesn’t draw much praise, he hasn’t shown much a platoon split in the minors (3.88 FIP versus lefties, 3.78 FIP against right-handers). According to Minor League Splits, Lincoln’s ’09 pitching translated to a major league line of 5.64 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 4.57 FIP. His 2010 season equates to 6.09 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.85 FIP. Before the season began, CHONE projected 6.22 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9 and a 4.70 FIP, while ZiPS forecasted 5.58 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9 and a 4.65 FIP.

Lincoln’s worth an add in NL-only formats, given his adequate punch out rates and low walk rate. He’s probably not a prime target in keeper leagues, but he’s someone to monitor there, too. Watch his ground ball rate, though — as BA indicated, home runs could become a problem.

The Chicago Cubs enter play today at 26-32, with a negative 12 run differential. According to CoolStandings.com, the club has less than an eight percent chance of making the playoffs. While the Cubs boast the second-best starting pitcher xFIP in the NL, the bullpen has been a middle-of-the pack unit (eighth) and the offense places just 10th in the Senior Circuit in wOBA (.325).

To find out why the Cubs aren’t hitting well, look no further than the corner infield spots. Derrek Lee (.317 wOBA) isn’t meeting expectations to this point, but Aramis Ramirez has been the worst position player in the game. A-Ram ranks dead last among qualified batters in wOBA (.231). A consistent four-to-five win player from 2004-2008, Ramirez has been 1.2 wins below replacement in 2010.

And now, Ramirez will apparently hit the DL with a lingering injury to his left thumb.

Ramirez, 32, missed considerable time last season with a dislocated left shoulder suffered while diving for a grounder in May. But when he was in the lineup, he raked — a .317/.389/.516 triple-slash in 342 plate appearances, with a .199 ISO and a .392 wOBA. That power figure was down from previous seasons (his ISO ranged from .229-.269 from 2004-2008), but Ramirez still had excellent projections entering 2010:

CHONE: .289/.359/.502, .213 ISO, .373 wOBA
ZiPS: .295/.368/.519, .224 ISO, .384 wOBA

Instead, A-Ram has a .168/.232/.285 line in 198 PA, with a .117 ISO. His strikeout rate, 15.5% during his big league career, is 25.1%. He’s swinging through a good deal of pitches within the strike zone — Ramirez’s Z-Contact rate is 84.1%, compared to an 87.6% career mark and the 87-88% MLB average.

A .189 BABIP hasn’t done him any favors, but Ramirez is hitting line drives just 15.3% of the time (19.8% average since 2002) and is producing a bunch of weakly hit fly balls. Ramirez has lofted the ball 59.9% of the time this season, compared to a 45.1% average since ’02, and his home run per fly ball rate is just 6.1% (13.4% since ’02).

Ramirez has been bullied by fastballs. Per 100 pitches, he was about +1.3-+1.4 runs above average against heaters from 2007-2009. With a bum thumb, he has been -3.77 runs below average versus fastballs in 2010. That’s, by far, the worst mark in the majors. When Ramirez puts a fastball in play, he’s often hitting feebly to the opposite field (chart from texasleaguers.com):

Speaking of going oppo, Ramirez is hitting to the center and opposite fields more often, with awful results:

Some of Ramirez’s paltry numbers on balls hit to center and right is due to his low BABIP, but he’s not hitting with any power to those fields, either. The thumb injury, the problems with fastballs and his pulling fewer pitches are all indicative of a player who can’t turn on the ball like he typically does.

Without A-Ram, the Cubs will likely rely on Mike Fontenot against right-handers and Jeff Baker versus lefties (Fontenot is still getting some PT at second base, too). Chad Tracy, inked to a minor league deal over the winter and hitting .396/.427/.641 in 91 AB at Triple-A Iowa, is expected to be added to the active roster.