Toronto Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill entered 2010 flying high. After all, Hill hammered pitchers for a .286/.330/.499 line last season, with 36 home runs and a .357 wOBA that placed behind just Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler among keystone players. The LSU product’s unprecedented power surge (.213 Isolated Power) wasn’t expected to be repeated this year, but ZiPS and CHONE figured he’d be an asset at the plate again:

ZiPS: .275/.323/.447, .172 ISO, .337 wOBA
CHONE: .282/.332/.453, .171 ISO, .342 wOBA

Fantasy players bought the breakout performance big-time — according to KFFL, Hill’s ADP for 2010 was 49th overall. But, instead of providing a potent bat at an up-the-middle position, Hill has a .197/.289/.370 triple-slash and a putrid .296 wOBA. Despite the hefty investment, some owners are cutting ties altogether. Hill is on the waiver wire in nine percent of ESPN leagues, and 17 percent of Yahoo leagues. What’s going on here?

Two numbers jump off Hill’s stat sheet — his .192 batting average on balls in play and his 9.7% line drive rate, both lowest among qualified major league hitters. During his big league career, Hill has a .298 BABIP and he has hit line drives at a 19.3 percent clip.

Those missing line drives have been classified as fly balls, as Hill’s 48.9 FB% is well north of his 39.5 percent rate. And more of those flies are of the weak variety — his infield/fly ball rate is 14 percent. That’s nearly double the MLB average and above his career 10.1 IF/FB%. Infield flies are the closest thing to an automatic out on a ball put in play, so they’re BABIP killers.

Another potential cause of Hill’s poor hitting is his expanded strike zone. His outside swing percentage was below the MLB average each season from 2005-2008, and it was about six percent above the big league average last season. In 2010, he’s hacking at 33.3 percent of off-the-plate pitches, compared to the 28.1% MLB average. As a proportion of the big league average, that’s +19 percent (33.3 divided by 28.1). Also, he’s making more (likely weak) contact with those pitches thrown out of the zone — his O-Contact% was below the major league average the previous three seasons, but he has put the bat on the ball 71.9% of the time on outside pitches this year. The MLB average in 2010 is 66.4%, so Hill’s O-Contact is plus-eight percent.

Hill’s plate discipline this season has been less-than-stellar. But even so, there are reasons to expect a rebound to league-average hitting. His BABIP on grounders this year (.153) is 90 points lower than his career average (.243). His BABIP on fly balls (.081) is 34 points lower than his career mark (.115). Hill’s still hitting for power (.173 ISO), and his walk rate is in the double-digits (10.6 BB%) despite his chasing more pitches than usual, the result of opponents throwing him fewer pitches in the zone (46.2%, compared to the 47.3% MLB average).

The 28-year-old second baseman has a .258/.314/.431 rest-of-season ZiPS, with a .329 wOBA. CHONE projects a .268/.328/.451 line, which is roughly a .335 wOBA. His career triple-slash? .278/.333/.429, and his wOBA is .332.

Hill’s not the new Jeff Kent He has fallen into some bad habits, which have contributed to his struggles. However, he’s not a lost cause, either. Hill retains a good deal of pop, and he should resume being a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option with some better bounces and a plate approach reboot.

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.

Anibal Sanchez has endured a star-crossed career. The former Red Sox farmhand, picked up by the Marlins as part of the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell/Hanley Ramirez mega-deal in November of 2005, punched out over ten batters per nine innings in the minors. In its 2006 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America remarked that while Florida desired Jon Lester in the Beckett deal, Sanchez was “a premium prospect in his own right.” And on September 6, 2006, Sanchez sat on top of the baseball world, no-hitting the Arizona Diamondbacks in the thirteenth start of his rookie season.

Over the next three years, however, Sanchez would spend more time rehabbing than trying to retire big league batters. While a Sox prospect, he overcame 2003 surgery to transpose a nerve in his right elbow. But injuries again crept into the picture — Sanchez underwent labrum surgery in May of 2007. After a near-15 month absence from a major league mound, he returned on trade deadline day of 2008. Unfortunately, shoulder woes derailed his 2009 season as well — he spent nearly four months on the DL. Over the 2007-2009 period, Sanchez logged just 167.2 MLB innings.

So far this season, it appears as though Sanchez is finally making good on those predictions of acedom. In 81 frames, the 26-year-old right-hander has a 3.22 ERA. That puts him in the same company as studs like Mat Latos and Tommy Hanson. Fantasy owners have been slow to get on board, though, as Sanchez is owned in just 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. Should more players be scrambling to the waiver wire to snag Anibal, or is that reticence well-justified?

During his first 13 starts of the season, Sanchez has 6.78 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent groundball rate. If those numbers sound rather run-of-the-mill, that’s because they are — in 2010, the average MLB hurler has whiffed 7.02 batters per nine innings, with 3.45 BB/9 and a groundball rate around 44 percent. During his big league career, Sanchez has 6.64 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 and a 43.4 GB%. He’s issuing fewer walks than in years past, which is certainly a positive. But there’s nothing here that portends to a great leap forward.

Similarly, his plate discipline stats show some, though not a ton, of improvement. Sanchez’s rate of first pitch strikes is up, sitting at 59.4 percent (55.6% career average, 58% MLB average). Also, he’s getting swings on pitches out of the zone 29.6% (28.1% MLB average), the first time his O-Swing has surpassed the big league average. But his 8.9 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his 8.7% career mark (8-9% MLB average), as is his 80.8% contact rate (80.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

So how is Sanchez’s ERA in the low three’s? Homers. Or rather, a lack thereof. When opponents loft a fly ball against Sanchez, it’s leaving the yard just 3.4 percent of the time. That’s the fifth-lowest rate among qualified big league starters. For comparison, the major league average is about 11 percent, and Sanchez’s career rate entering 2010 was 8.7 percent. Dolphin…er, Sun Life Stadium had a neutral HR/FB park factor over the past few years. There’s very little chance that Sanchez continues to see so many balls die at the warning track.

His xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.34. That’s better than his recent work — 4.43 in 2008 and 4.64 last season — but not greatly so. Sanchez has essentially been a slightly above-average starter who has gotten some big breaks in the dinger department. I think Sanchez is certainly worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues, and he could be an option in deeper mixed formats. But keep in mind that, between his voluminous injury history and ERA drop based on a factor largely out of the pitcher’s control, Sanchez is far from a sure thing.

An arm and a pair of legs for your fantasy squad…

Trevor Cahill | SP | Athletics | 22% owned

The A’s were dealt a big but not totally unsurprising blow when hip trouble ended Justin Duchscherer’s season, but Cahill has stepped right in and performed admirably. He’s backed off his four-seamer in favor of more two-seamers and curveballs this year, which has helped him generate more ground balls (52.5% in ’10, 47.8% in ’09) and keep lefties in check (4.27 xFIP vs. LHB in ’10, 5.31 in ’09).

The strikeouts aren’t there (5.14 K/9) and xFIP (4.35) and BABIP (.246) suggest Cahill’s 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are destined for regression, but he should be able to sustain a low-4.00’s ERA over the long haul ((R) ZiPS projects a 4.70 ERA, for what it’s worth). After facing the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday, Cahill’s next two outings will come at home against the Pirates and in Cleveland.

Julio Borbon | OF | Rangers | 29%

Borbon’s fantasy value lies in his steals, and after swiping 19 bags in 49 games last year, fantasy owners were drooling at the potential of adding 60+ steals their to ledger. ZiPS and CHONE projected 30 and 34 steals respectively, but if there’s any stat that’s easy to outperform the projections, it’s stolen bases.

Borbon opened the season by hitting just .226/.243/.263 (.229 wOBA by my calculation) with six steals in the team’s first 48 games, but he’s gone off with the bat since late May. In Texas’ last 17 games, Borbon has hit .434/.446/.585 (.452 wOBA), reclaiming an everyday job and serving as the second leadoff man from the nine-spot in the lineup. The steals still aren’t there, just two for six during that span, but those can home at any time and without warning. (R) ZiPS is holding out hope for 22 SB during the rest of the season, on par with guys like Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, and teammate Elvis Andrus.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Nyjer Morgan – Owners drafted him for speed and Morgan has been successful on just 14 of 24 SB attempts. Also, he was hitting so poorly as the Nationals’ leadoff man that he was dropped lower in the order. But Morgan has played well the last two weeks while everyone is dumping on him. In his last 14 games (13 starts), Morgan is batting .286 with 9 R and 5 SB in 7 attempts. He is a three-category performer who struggled while suffering through a poor BABIP stretch. ZiPS (U) shows him with 35 SB and that seems to be on the low side of what he should be expected to do given his speed and recent success ratio.

Francisco Rodriguez – Ask any Mets fan or Rodriguez owner if they feel comfortable when he comes on to nail down the save. Tuesday he allowed a 2-run HR in the ninth inning but held on for the save, prompting Metsdradamus to label it an “8” on the Coronary Meter. But if you do not watch the games and just view the results in the box scores, you will see that Rodriguez’ results are more than satisfactory. In the last 30 games, he is tied with Jonathan Broxton for most Saves in the majors with 9. In that time span he has a nice 12.09 K/9 ratio. And even though hitters are enjoying a .393 BABIP against Rodriguez, he has a very acceptable 2.97 ERA in that stretch. The results can be even better in the future if his BABIP regresses to normal levels.

James Shields – He has dropped three straight decisions and now carries his highest ERA (4.55) since his rookie season in 2006. But Shields is on pace to record his highest K/9 (8.68) of his career and his xFIP of 3.39 is a personal best. The Rays righty is scuffling right now due to a 50 percent strand rate, the lowest of any qualified pitcher in the last 30 days. Once he improves with runners on base, Shields will be a pitcher to help in all four categories thanks to Tampa Bay’s offense and the chance for big Win totals.

SELL

Matt Cain – Everyone thought Cain was lucky last year but he is topping even that pace with his current hot streak. In 2009, Cain had an ERA 1.33 lower than his xFIP. This year it is 2.49 lower thanks to a 94.8 LOB% in his last six starts. Now, Cain’s ERA has been better than his xFIP each season of his career, so it is certainly not all due to luck. Still, now is a good time to look to sell high on a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last four starts.

Aubrey Huff – After a poor start to the season, Huff has been on an extended hot streak. In his last 41 games he is batting .333 with 8 HR and 26 RBIs. That has caused his ownership in CBS Sports leagues to rise from 40 to 75 percent. But it is questionable if Huff can maintain this pace going forward and there are also some playing time concerns going forward. With Buster Posey and Pat Burrell both making the case for consistent at-bats, Huff may find it hard to match last year’s 536 ABs.

Colby Rasmus – Last year LHP devoured Rasmus as they limited him to a .474 OPS in 115 PA. But this year Rasmus has a .951 OPS versus southpaws in 44 PA and he is faring even better against RHP. In his last 30 games, Rasmus has been hitting everything in sight, as he has a .444 BABIP and a 25.0 HR/FB rate. Neither the overall success nor the results versus LHP are likely to keep up their current pace, making Rasmus a sell-high candidate. ZiPS (R) has him for a .269 AVG and 11 HR, and it is hard to believe his trade value is not higher than that.

HUNCH

Mark Teixeira – A notorious slow starter, Teixeira got off to his usual slow start and then turned things around in May. But ZiPS was not all that thrilled with Teixeira to start the year and the updated version shows reduced totals in AVG, HR and RBIs. I am going to side with history and predict that Teixeira exceeds his ZiPS (U) totals of .252-27-104.

It’s terrible to be inside on a Tuesday in the summer, but here are a couple players that will set your mind right by virtually putting you on the pitch to use a world cup metaphor. Either that, or they will help you win your league.

Aaron Heilman, Arizona (9% owned)
The worst bullpen in the majors is moving their closer out of the role according to AJ Hinch today. This, despite Chad Qualls being the only pitcher in the pen with an xFIP under four. Well, no matter, it looks like the team will be giving interim save chances to Heilman, the only pitcher in the bullpen with an FIP under four. Seriously, this pen is terrible – their league-worst ERA (7.33) is almost two runs worse than second-to-last place (Milwaukee, 5.88). The only other option is possibly Esmerling Vazquez, who has the best strikeout rate in the pen (9.53 K/9) but has a correspondingly high walk rate (4.76 BB/9) and a mediocre-to-poor groundball rate (37.3%). At least he doesn’t have Juan Gutierrez problems with the fly ball (27.5%). Last but not least is newcomer Sam Demel, fresh off his trade from Oakland – but let Joe Pawlikowski and David Golebiewski run you through the Arizona ramifications for the big trade today. It seems Demel has some hurdles to clear first, like actually pitching well in the major leagues. In the meantime, there’s Nick Pieocoro, the Arizona Republic beat writer, saying that AJ Hinch announced that Heilman gets the save chances for now, and my more lengthy run-down over at Bloomberg Sports.

James McDonald, Los Angeles (0% owned)
This is pure speculation that is most useful to those in the deepest of leagues. But let me lay out the reasons McDonald might be up soon. First, Chad Billingsley went on the 15-day DL today with a groin strain. Second, the replacement for the injured Vincente Padilla, Ronald Belisario, has started two games since 2007. Third, Vincente Padilla himself just got rocked in his first rehab start and may miss another start to extended rehab. Fourth, McDonald is on the 40-man roster and is currently starting. Sure, he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP right now, but he’s playing in a tough league and and still has 47 strikeout in 46.1 innings so far this year. The only other pitcher at AAA that’s showing anything is Seth Etherton, who is not on the 40-man roster. Etherton is a name to remember, though, because he does have a non-adjusted 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings. I don’t see the team wanting to drop an actual prospect from the 40-man to make room for the 33-year-old journeyman Etherton (6.18 major league career FIP). And for those that think that McDonald has no upside, there are two simple numbers that say he should be given another shot: he owns a 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 career in the minor leagues. THIS might finally be the year, when they turn to him with no other options and he wasn’t even pitching well in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

Oakland Athletics acquired OF/1B Conor Jackson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Sam Demel.

Jackson, 28, is under team control through the 2011 season. The 2003 first-round pick out of Cal established himself as a fairly patient hitter with mid range pop over the 2006-2008 seasons, hitting a combined .292/.371/.450 with a .361 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Jackson’s lumber was 14 percent better than average (114 wRC+). That’s not overwhelming for a guy who mainly manned first base, but Jackson controlled the zone (10.1 BB%, 12.8 K%), showed adequate power (.158 ISO) and improved his fantasy appeal by qualifying in the outfield during the ’08 season.

The past two years haven’t been nearly as kind. Jackson battled Valley Fever in 2009, limiting him to just 110 PA. He batted .182/.264/.253, with a .251 wOBA. Slowed by a right hamstring injury that required a DL stint in April, Jackson’s got a .298 wOBA and a .238/.326/.331 triple-slash in 172 PA this season. His ISO, .071 in 2009, hasn’t cracked triple-digits in 2010 either (.093).

In Oakland, Jackson figures to take over most of the playing time in left field. He’s worth a flyer in AL-only formats, but it’s hard to know how he’ll hit in the green and gold, given the uncertainty regarding his health. If Jackson is moving past the illness that sapped his strength, he could return to the .350-.360 wOBA range. Given that he has rated as about average in an outfield corner to this point, that would make Jackson a decent starting option for the A’s.

Mixed-leaguers probably want a player with higher upside and greater certainty, though. It’s also worth noting that Jackson will be moving from Chase Field, which (per the Bill James Handbook) increased run-scoring 15 percent and homers seven percent compared to a neutral park over the 2007-2009 seasons, to the Coliseum, which depressed runs nine percent and dingers 10 percent over the same time frame. That won’t help his chances of regaining fantasy relevance.

With Jackson no longer in the desert, Gerardo Parra will presumably get the majority of PT in left for the Diamondbacks. The 23-year-old lefty batter, rated as the 88th-best prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2009, has a .281/.319/.400 major league line in 609 PA over the past two seasons. The Venezuelan native has a .309 wOBA and a 82 wRC+, as he has rarely walked (5.4 BB%) or laced the ball into the gaps (.119 ISO).

Swinging early and often getting behind in the count (career 64.4 first pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58% MLB average), Parra has hit grounders at a 53.5% clip. He’s a good defender in an outfielder corner, but his offensive ceiling is subject to debate –Parra’s not uber-projectable at 5-11 and 195 pounds, and he didn’t display much thump in the minors (career .126 ISO). He was generally young for the levels at which he played, but Baseball America capped his home run power at the low-to-mid-teens, remarking that “if he has to move to an outfield corner he starts to look like a tweener.”

Demel, meanwhile, is expected to join a wretched D-Backs pen that ranks dead last in xFIP (5.16) and Win Probability Added (-6.88). A third-round pick in the 2007 draft out of TCU, Demel has missed lots of lumber as a pro (10 K/9) but has usually struggled to locate (4.5 BB/9). While the righty didn’t crack BA’s list of top 30 A’s prospects heading into 2010, Demel has added a cut fastball to his low-90’s fastball, changeup and erratic slider. In 28.2 IP with Triple-A Sacramento, the 24-year-old had 8.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a characteristically strong ground ball rate (49.4%; his overall GB% in the minors is 54.5). Demel’s worth monitoring, particularly if Arizona shops Chad Qualls to a team that focuses more on his very good track record and 3.56 xFIP this season instead of his bloated ERA.

With Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Buster Posey, Neftali Feliz, and Carlos Santana now in the big leagues, just four of Marc’s preseason top ten prospects are left in the minors leagues. In all likelihood, the next mega-prospect to get the call will be Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates, and there are indications that he will join the team as soon as tomorrow.

If you’re reading this site, you’re no doubt familiar with Mr. Alvarez and what he can bring to the table. Baseball America describes him as having “tremendous raw power to all fields” with “good pitch-recognition skills,” but notes “can be caught off balance by breaking balls from lefthanders.” That last part is the biggest concern, because he’ll be playing in a division with Jaime Garcia, Ted Lilly, Manny Parra, Chris Narveson, Wandy Rodriguez, and Randy Wolf. Not exactly an awe-inspiring collection of southpaws, but enough that you’ll need a decent platoon partner.

Alvarez is hitting .280 with a stout .260 ISO in Triple-A this year, which are right in line with his career totals of .286 and .251, respectively. MinorLeagueSplits.com indicates a reverse split in a limited sample this year (1.073 OPS vs. LHP, .869 vs. RHB), but his career totals (.810 OPS vs. LHP, .971 vs. RHP) reflect Baseball America’s scouting report. Alvarez can swing and miss with the best of them, striking out in close to 28% of his minor league plate appearances.

CHONE projected a .231/.299/.400 batting line with 16 HR and 54 RBI in 403 plate appearances before the season, and that seems very reasonable if the Bucs are going to run him out there every day, lefthander or otherwise. If they platoon him, I’d expect something more along the lines of .250/.330/.450, though that’s nothing more than a hunch. I am concerned about all the strikeouts, because bush league strikeout totals do have some predictive value; Chris Davis struck out in close to 27% of his minor league at-bats, for example.

Even if it doesn’t happen tomorrow, the Pirates will inevitably call Alvarez up at some point this month. Pittsburgh has a dreadful offense (team .297 wOBA), so he won’t get much help and the RBI opportunities will be few are far between. The homerun potential alone makes him a worthy fantasy add, even moreso in deeper leagues. You’ll take a bit of a hit in AVG, so make sure you can mitigate at some other spots. Chances are Alvarez will have better trade value than true worth later in the summer based on hype and name recognition alone.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

Yeah, I know — kinda obvious. But Strasburg’s first two big league starts are well worth discussing. The hoopla surrounding the San Diego State Aztec reached mythical proportions typically reserved for the likes of Big Foot, Chupacabra and Loch Ness, but Strasburg has been highly impressive.

The 21-year-old righty ripped apart minor league batters before getting the call — in 55.1 IP between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, he had 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a FIP slightly above two. When opponents weren’t whiffing, they were hitting weak grounders (Strasburg’s GB% was 64.9). While his second MLB start against Cleveland proved that he is, in fact a sentient being capable of error, Strasburg has a 22/5 K/BB ratio in 12.1 frames so far.

He’s sitting 98 with the four-seamer, 96 with the two-seamer and also features a low-80’s curve with two-plane break and a 90-91 MPH change that drops seven inches more than his four-seamer (4-4.5 inch big league average). His swinging strike rate is 15.3. There’s not much else to say, other than Strasburg really is worthy of the attention that he receives.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

Rasmus, 23, has followed up a quality rookie season with a great leap forward at the plate. In 219 PA, he’s hitting .293/.399/.582, with a .414 wOBA that ranks in the top 10 among MLB hitters. Clearly, Rasmus won’t keep up this pace. He’s benefitting from some fortunate bounces, with a .375 BABIP that’s well ahead of his .319 expected BABIP. But even so, he’s working the count and crushing the ball.

Swinging at 23.3 percent of pitches out of the zone (28.1% MLB average), Rasmus is drawing ball four in 14.6% of his PA. His Isolated Power, .156 last season, is .288 in 2010. All of that taking and raking has come with more swings and misses (33.2 K%, compared to 20% in ’09), but it’s a trade well worth making. Rasmus likely won’t keep hitting homers nearly 21 percent of the time that he lofts a fly ball into the air — ZiPS projects a .266/.342/.447 line for the rest of 2010, and CHONE a .259/.339/.442 triple-slash. I’d take the over on those forecasts, however.

Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays

Definitively a starter with Toronto after years of role-related drama in Seattle, Morrow has been considerably better than his ERA (5.14) implies. He’s got 10.29 K/9, 4.89 BB/9 and a 3.99 xFIP in 70 innings pitched. Morrow still struggles to find the strike zone at times — his first pitch strike percentage is 53.8 (58.3% MLB average) — but he’s missing lumber at an elite rate.

With an 11 percent swinging strike rate, Morrow ranks in the top 10 among qualified starters (the MLB average is 8.2%). His contact rate of 74.4% is well above the 81.1% big league average and places behind just Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and teammate Ricky Romero. The whiff rates on Morrow’s 94 MPH four-seam fastball and upper-80’s slider are stratospheric — 10.6% for the four-seamer (6% MLB average) and 26.7% for the slider (13.6% MLB average). This guy’s probably still available on the waiver wire, too, as Morrow’s owned in just 15% of Yahoo leagues.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello’s 21, and his career could take any number of paths over the coming years. But he hasn’t made progress during his sophomore season. The New Jersey prep product is punching out fewer batters this year than in 2009 (4.02 K/9, compared to 4.69 K/9), with a few more walks (2.91 BB/9, 2.74 BB/9 in ’09) and a lower ground ball rate (48.8 GB%, 54.2 GB% in ’09). No, he hasn’t been six-plus ERA bad — his BABIP (.350) and strand rate (61.6%) will regress toward the mean — but Porcello’s xFIP has climbed to 5.14 in 2010 after coming in at 4.32 in 2009.

At this point, Porcello basically has one pitch going for him: a 90 MPH sinker that he throws for strikes and uses to get grounders. Everything else is a work in progress. His four-seamer, thrown a couple ticks quicker, has a decent whiff rate, but Porcello struggles to locate it. Hitters lay off his lackluster breaking and off-speed stuff:

Having thrown all of 125 innings in the minors, Porcello is learning on the job. And he’s still got a ways to go.

Chase Headley, Padres

A full-time third baseman after spending the better part of the past two seasons in left field, Headley is flashing the leather — he has a +8.1 UZR/150 at 3B. His bat lags behind, however.

It seems like the switch-hitter might be trying to make more contact, to the detriment of his power and overall offensive performance. During his rookie season in ’07, Headley struck out 31.4%, with a 72.7 Contact%. Last year, he whiffed 24.5% and made contact 77.8%, and this season he’s punching out 20% with an 81 Contact%. His ISO over that time frame has dipped from .151 to .131 to .093. Headley’s wOBA has declined three years running as well, going from .334 in 2008 to .328 last year to .305 in 2010.

Considering that he’s not drawing many walks this year (5.7 BB%) while just blooping some singles, it’s not surprising that Headley’s offense has been below-average even after accounting for cavernous Petco Park — his wRC+ is 95.

Chris Tillman, Orioles

Tillman, 22, has fantastic long-term potential. He was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and he has 8.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a FIP around three in 154.1 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years. Past scouting reports lauded his low-90’s heat (peaking around 94 MPH) and above-average curveball, delivered from a lanky 6-5 frame.

In the majors, however, Tillman’s stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. Tossing 15 innings for the O’s this year, Tillman has a 7/8 K/BB ratio, with 15 runs surrendered. His average fastball velocity is slightly under 91 MPH. In 80 combined IP over the past two years, Tillman has 5.18 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 5.31 xFIP. Both his four-seam fastball and curve have below-average whiff rates in the bigs so far (4.6% and 7.5%, respectively), which helps explain the lack of K’s. As an extreme fly ball pitcher (36.5 GB% in the majors, 39.7 GB% in the minors), Tillman needs to miss more bats and display sharper control. There’s nothing alarming here long-term, but Baltimore could send him back to Triple-A to work out the kinks.

Eduardo Nunez, SS, New York (AL): After six seasons in the minors, Nunez broke out in 2009 at double-A. The right-hand hitting shortstop has followed that up with another solid performance in triple-A. Nunez, 23, is currently hitting .323/.364/.413 in 254 at-bats. He doesn’t have much power (.091 ISO) but he’s improved his base running and can now take full advantage of his above-average speed; he’s swiped 14 bases in 17 tries. Nunez lacks patience at the plate, as witnessed by his 5.2 BB%, but he also does not strike out much (12.9 K%). A good defensive player with a strong arm, the Dominican native could be a big league shortstop but it probably won’t come with the Yankees as he’s a solid commodity that could help bring in some veteran talent at the trade deadline.

Miguel Velazquez, OF, Texas: Off-the-field problems have slowed Velazquez’ ascent through the Rangers’ depth chart but he’s starting to make some real noise now. Currently playing in low-A ball, the outfielder is hitting .280/.353/.477 in 239 at-bats. He’s shown the ability to hit for a solid average and also possesses good power (.196 ISO) and slightly-above-average speed that has helped him nab 11 bases in 15 tries. Velazquez, 22, also has a strong arm and could eventually move from center field to right field as he fills out and slows down. It would be nice to see him challenged with a move to high-A ball.

Jarred Cosart, RHP, Philadelphia: Cosart won’t be a sleeper for long. A 2008 38th round draft pick out of a Texas high school as a two-way player, the right-hander slid in the draft due to signability concerns, but the organization made a smart move and gave him more than $500,000 to steal him away from the University of Missouri. Currently playing in low-A ball, the 20-year-old hurler has a 3.25 ERA and has given up just 48 hits and 15 walks in 63.2 innings of work. He has the desirable combination of a high strikeout total (73) and a high ground-ball rate (59%). His repertoire includes a mid-90s fastball, a good curveball and a change-up.