Houston is trying to fix their problem. [/ lame]

The Astros shook up a bit of their roster earlier today, designating three mediocre at best players for assignment and replacing them with younger players that at the very lost offer hope. One of those players is catcher Jason Castro, the team’s consensus top prospect and the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Usually teams will look for stars when they’re picking in the top ten, but the general belief is that the Astros reached a bit and instead landed themselves a rock solid, every day backstop. There’s nothing wrong with that, productive every day catchers are damn valuable players, but when a (theoretically) rebuilding team has a pick that high, you’d like to see shoot for the moon a little more. But I digress.

As predicted, Castro has climbed the minor league ladder very quickly, shooting from High-A to Double-A in 2009 before starting this season in Triple-A. His combined batting line last year sat at .300/.380/.446, and he’s followed that up with a .265/.365/.355 (.301 BABIP) effort in 244 plate appearances this year. The data at MinorLeagueSplits.com suggests that Castro has been beating the ball into the ground with season (48.6 GB%, 17.9 LD%, 33.5 FB%), which certainly helps explain the sub-.100 ISO. Last year those totals were 37.9%, 17.3%, 44.5%, respectively.

CHONE projects a .249/.313/.351 batting line 382 plate appearances this year, which isn’t terrible for a rookie catcher. Castro’s a lefty batter that will be playing in a park better known for aiding righthanders, and there’s certainly no help to be found in the lineup around him (.276 team wOBA). The Astros have announced that it’s his job on a full-time basis, and playing time certainty counts for something. I wouldn’t expect Castro to drastically outproduce his CHONE projection, so the majority of his value comes in NL-only or deeper mixed leagues.

If you’re looking for a young and productive catcher, grab Carlos Santana if he’s still available in your league (owned in 45% of Yahoo! leagues). Dude’s got five doubles, two homers, four singles, seven walks, and three strikeouts in his nine games so far. Hard to argue with that. John Jaso (7% owned) is still hitting at a .291/.413/.425 clip and has been getting playing time at DH recently, so he’s another option as well. I’d target either before Castro, even in keeper leagues.

In 2009, Randy Wells was a surprisingly effective cog in the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. The converted catcher and returned 2007 Rule V pick of the Blue Jays posted a 3.05 ERA in 165.1 innings pitched, placing 10th among qualified National League starters. This season, however, Wells has fallen to a 4.92 ERA in 78.2 frames. Has the 27-year-old righty regressed significantly, or are better days ahead?

While Wells’ ’09 performance was sturdy, it is important to note that his gaudy ERA overstated the extent of his dominance. With 5.66 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Wells had a more modest 4.24 xFIP. The ERA/xFIP dichotomy was the result of a fairly high 76% rate of stranding base runners (the MLB average is usually around 70-72%, though pitcher skill does play some role) and a home run/fly ball rate of eight percent (11% MLB average).

Extreme strand and HR/FB rates have a way of returning toward those big league averages, and we’ve seen that from Wells in 2010 — he’s leaving 67.8% of runners on base, and 9.2% of his fly balls are reaching the bleachers. While a reversal of fortune on those fronts should have been expected, Wells has seemingly gone to the other end of the luck spectrum this season. He’s got a .355 batting average on balls in play, compared to .294 in 2009. Among qualified starting pitchers, only Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke has a higher BABIP.

The first thing that sticks out regarding Wells’ performance on balls put in play is his line drive rate. It’s 25.1% this year, highest among starters and leaps and bounds above his 18.8% mark from last season. Line drives aren’t the most stable metric from season to season, but we know that bad things happen on batted balls classified as liners — line drives in the NL this season have a .975 slugging percentage and a .715 BABIP. Wells’ liners have a .965 SLG% and a .754 BABIP. That’s certainly a contributing factor to his inflated BABIP. But what makes this finding confusing is that just about every other performance measure suggests that Wells isn’t getting hit hard at all.

So far, he has 7.09 K/9. He’s whiffing 18 percent of batters faced this year, up from 15 percent in 2009. Wells’ swinging strike rate, 8.1% last season, has climbed to 10.9% (8-9% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 77.1% in 2010, compared to 81.8% last year (80-81% MLB average). Relative to the big league average, Randy’s outside swing percentage is up — he’s outpacing the MLB norm by 17 percent this year (33.1 O-Swing, 28.2 MLB average) after surpassing it by 11 percent last year (27.8 O-Swing, 25.1 MLB average).

Wells is getting swinging strikes when throwing a fastball 6.8 percent in 2010, compared to 4.3% last season (the MLB average is around six. His slider is getting slightly more whiffs (13.3% in ’10 to 12.8% in ’09, 13.6% MLB average) and his changeup has a 19.4% whiff rate, up considerably from last year’s 13.1% clip (12.6% MLB average). None of these numbers suggest he has gotten easier to hit.

In addition to getting more whiffs, Wells has actually lowered his walk rate slightly to 2.29 BB/9. He continues to get ahead in the count often, with a 61.6 first pitch strike percentage (61.4% last year, 58% MLB average).

Overall, Wells’ xFIP is a tidy 3.68 — over a half-run lower than his 2009 figure. That line drive rate bears watching, but there are many positives to be found in Wells’ “disappointing” follow-up to his celebrated rookie campaign. If he’s available in your league (and with a 51% Yahoo ownership rate, there’s a decent chance that he is), do your team a favor and scoop up a quality starter on the cheap.

J.D. Martin, Nationals (Owned in one percent of Yahoo Leagues)

While Washington’s non-Strasburg starters have been lackluster this season, with a collective 4.68 xFIP that ranks 15th in the NL, Martin’s solid performance so far might not buy him much job security. Scott Olsen (shoulder inflammation) could be back next month, as could Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder). Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery) is another possibility to pitch in August or September. Returns for Jason Marquis (elbow) and Ross Detwiler (hip) are less certain.

In the meantime, however, NL-only players could do worse. Martin, 27, was a supplemental first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians in the 2001 draft. The 6-4, 200 pound righty once rated prominently on prospect lists, cracking Baseball America’s top 100 prior to 2002. Sadly, injury derailed his ascent to the majors — Martin underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005. His standing in Cleveland’s system slipped, as he was shifted mostly to relief work in 2008, and he then signed as a minor league free agent with the Nationals prior to 2009.

Martin’s a soft-tosser — he features an 87-88 MPH fastball, a mid-80’s cutter, a low-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup — but he has a quality minor league track record and exceptional control. Last season at Triple-A Syracuse, Martin had 6.44 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 0.41 HR/9 and a 2.77 FIP in 88 innings pitched. Prior to his late-May call-up in 2010, he whiffed 5.5 per nine, walked 1.8 per nine, surrendered 0.7 HR/9 and held a 3.75 FIP in 41 IP.

Logging 102.1 big league frames over the past two years, Martin has 4.84 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 5.09 xFIP. There’s no guarantee that he’ll succeed — Martin won’t miss many bats, and he’s a fly ball pitcher (37.4 GB%) who has experienced problems with the long ball (1.67 HR/9) — but he could be a decent mid-to-back-end starter. ZiPS projects 5.63 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.44 FIP for the rest of 2010.

Ike Davis, Mets (16%)

The 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft experienced a famous power outage after signing (.256/.326/.326, 0 HR in 239 New York-Penn League PA), causing some Mets fans to rashly wonder if the team made a mistake. Since then, Davis has raked. He batted a combined .298/.381/.524 in 488 PA between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League last season, walking 11.7 percent of the time, punching out 26.1 percent and posting a .226 ISO while going yard 20 times.

After a productive Arizona Fall League stint and a week-plus at the Triple-A level, Davis was bumped up to the majors early in 2010. Davis, 23, has made a seamless transition. The 6-5 lefty hitter has a .261/.345/.447 triple-slash in 226 PA, with a .346 wOBA. He’s showing decent pop, with a .186 ISO, and he’s walking in 11.1 percent of his trips to the plate. Plus, those dugout flips are so freakin’ cool.

Davis has been a fairly aggressive batter, swinging at 29.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.2% MLB average this season), but he holds that double-digit walk rate as a result of seeing very few offerings over the plate. Pitchers are giving Isaac Benjamin an in-zone pitch just 38.3 percent of the time, the lowest rate among qualified MLB hitters (47.3% MLB average). On a related note, opponents are reluctant to give him fastballs — Davis is getting a fastball under 50% of the time, eighth-lowest among big league batsmen. So far, the opposition’s strategy against Ike seems to be, “feed him off-speed stuff off the plate and hope for a chase.” It’ll be interesting to see if that approach shifts in the months to come.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: An 0.63 WHIP and 15 saves is pretty impressive for the veteran closer. He’s given up just nine hits in 22.1 innings of work. He’s walked just one batter in the last eight games. Rivera is a great second-half target, as manager Joe Girardi has not over-used him (24 appearances).

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria is one of the hottest closers in baseball right now. In his last 13 appearances, he’s been touched up for runs just once (two against Minnesota on June 10). He went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano had a bit of a rest this past week and he appeared in just one game and recorded the save against Florida. He threw just nine pitches and six went for strikes.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: One of the hardest-worked closers in baseball, Valverde continues to benefit from an incredibly-low BABIP at .137. As a result, he’s given up just 10 hits in 29.1 innings of work. He appeared in four games this past week and went 3-for-3 in save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: The youngest closer in the league continues to lead in saves. Feliz has successfully clamped down on 18 leads. He saved three more games this past week – all against Florida and the Marlins club did not get a walk or a hit against him.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon got into four games this past week, with three coming against Arizona. The veteran right-hander was solid in his first two appearances against the D-Backs, but the club then touched him up for two hits and a run in his third appearance. He went 2-for-2 in save opportunities this past week.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey’s save opportunities have dried up again. He hasn’t successfully converted a save since June 3. In fact, he’s only had one opportunity since that time and he blew the save against the Cubs on June 17 – although it was an inherited run that scored.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: As expected, Jenks’ luck has started to improve and so to have his numbers. His ERA is down to 4.39 (xFIP 2.70), although his BABIP is still high at .405. He was the hottest reliever this past week and went 4-for-4 in save opportunities with six Ks, one walk and one run allowed.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: According to WAR, Aardsma has been a neutral pitcher this season, coming in at exactly 0.0 WAR. That’s not what his owners want to hear. In positive news, he was 2-for-2 in save opportunities this past week, so perhaps his luck is changing.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes has an excellent strikeout rate at 11.34 K/9, which is good because he wants to avoid putting the ball in play as long as he has a ground-ball rate of just 19.5%. He saved two games this past week.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Despite his warts – which includes a 5.79 BB/9 rate – Gregg is tied with Jon Rauch for second place in saves (17). He saved two games this past week and gave up just one walk and no hits.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch continues to be one of the most pleasant surprises on the season, as he’s tied for second in saves with 17. He appeared in just one game out of the past seven but recorded a save.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Wood seems to be doing a little bit better. The veteran pitcher hasn’t allowed a run in three games or a walk in five. He also got a save on June 18… against the Pirates. Wood is showing good velocity but he’s still struggling with his fastball command.

David Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Since taking over the closer’s role, Hernandez has gone 2-for-3 in saves. He appeared in three games this past week and was 1-for-2 with a meltdown against San Diego in which he allowed two runs.

The Rockies were dealt a major blow this afternoon when they learned that homegrown star Troy Tulowitzki will miss the next six to eight weeks with a fractured wrist. Fantasy teams everywhere will feel Colorado’s pain, because few shortstops can match Tulo’s tremendous production.

There’s just no way to replace a player of this caliber, so the only thing you can do is hope to maintain the status quo. When dealing with a major injury like this, I usually just forget about the counting stats and make sure my replacement won’t kill my AVG and/or OBP. Shortstops that hit homers and drive in runs are rare anyway, so there’s no point in sacrificing rate stats while stabbing in the dark for counting ones that won’t come anyway.

Here’s three players on the waiver wire that could help you weather the storm…

Reid Brignac | Rays | 8% owned

Briggy Ball is playing regularly for Tampa with Jason Bartlett on the disabled list, and he’s quietly hit a respectable .297 with a .353 OBP going into Friday’s games. He’s enjoying some BABIP luck (.384), sure, but his minor league baseline isn’t too far off at .330 in exactly 2,700 plate appearances. There’s a regression on the horizon, but a .270 AVG with a .345 or so OBP is definitely possible for the next few weeks. (R) ZiPS isn’t as optimistic, calling for .252 AVG, .298 OBP the rest of the way. Brignac also has 2B eligibility.

Ian Desmond | Nationals | 24%

The man who displaced Cristian Guzman has been a valuable piece for the Nats based mostly on his defense (+4.6 UZR, +3 DRS), though his offense consists of an empty .268 AVG. However, he’s picked up the pace over the last few weeks, hitting .293 in his last 103 plate appearances prior to tonight’s 1-for-4. (R) ZiPS sees him maintaining that same .268 AVG the rest of the way, though he’s probably the safest bet for playing time among players mentioned in this post.

Jeff Keppinger | Astros | 16%

Seemingly the only source of offense for the punchless ‘Stros (seriously, a team .287 OBP), Keppinger has maintained his .286 AVG and .333 OBP basically all year long despite the lack of help. (R) ZiPS sees more of the same on the way, a .283 AVG and .335 OBP to be exact, which is more serviceable than greate. He also has 2B and 3B eligibility. Keppinger is playing every day for Houston, however they could go into sell mode at any moment, and he could find himself on a contender’s bench just like that.

Aside from direct replacement, you could also somewhat Tulo’s loss by improving another position. It’s easier said than done of course, but if you have some pitching depth to spare it can be done. The outfield is typically the easiest spot to accomplish this simply because there’s multiple spots.

Losing a player of Tulowitzki’s caliber is never easy, and there’s not much you can do other than tread water. Hopefully he’s back in six weeks rather than eight, and doesn’t need much time to shake off the rust.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton continues to be a hot pitcher and his ERA is below 1.00 at 0.92. Even his xFIP is excellent at 1.79. He’d be even more dominant if his BABIP wasn’t high at .371. Broxton did not have a save this past week.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is giving up a lot of base runners (9.55 H/9, 3.29 BB/9) but he’s striking batters out at a career-high pace (11.52 K/9). As we can see by his BABIP (.400), the hit total is not indicative of his current skill level. Bell did not have a save this past week.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson has one of the best strikeout rates amongst closers this side of Carlos Marmol. The right-hander saved two games this past week and recorded four Ks in 3.1 innings of work.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The ground-ball rate is nothing to write home about (as usual) but Rodriguez has seen his strikeout rate remain solid at 11.46 K/9. He recorded three saves this past week, but he was touched up for two runs in a game against Cleveland on June 15.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: It’s not everyday that you see a reliever with a higher walk rate (5.58 BB/9) than hit rate (4.11) but that’s what you get with Marmol. If he can ever find the strike zone on a consistent basis, look out. His strikeout rate currently sits at 16.43 K/9. He saved just one game this past week but he didn’t blow a save and he also picked up a win against Oakland.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner currently has a strikeout rate of 13.33 K/9, so he’s not exactly showing his age (38) right now. He saved two games this past week and did not allow a run in as many appearances.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin saved two games this past week, but his scoreless streak was stopped at nine games, as the Mariners (His former club) touched him up for a run on June 15.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: The veteran closer has slipped down to a tie for third place amongst NL closers for saves (17). Cordero continues to be hittable (9.00 H/9) and his xFIP of 4.07 is nothing to write home about. He did not record a save this week.

John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Axford’s value has been helped by three wins in just 13 games. The rookie closer has been much more consistent than all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, and Axford has yet to blow a save. He did not have an opportunity this past week.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez has walked just six batters in 26.2 innings of work this season. The young closer also continues to have a much-improved strikeout rate of 9.11 K/9, thanks to an improved change-up, which he’s utilizing 44% of the time.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps is the only big-league reliever to hit the 20-save mark this season. However, the right-hander did not earn a save this past week and, in fact, appeared in just one game.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Poor command continues to keep Lindstrom from benefiting fully from his 96 mph fastball and his strikeout rate sits at just 7.24 K/9. He appeared in just one game this past week and recorded a save against the Royals.

Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With an xFIP of 2.60 through 10 games, Lidge has bounced back well from his injury woes. However, his formerly mid-90s fastball is currently sitting in the low-90s. He went 1-for-1 this past week in saves, but was touched up for a run against the Yankees.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: The Rockies organization currently has Corpas and Franklin Morales at the back-end of the bullpen, and Huston Street is also close to returning from rehab. You probably want to avoid this situation until the dust settles. Neither Corpas nor Franklin recorded a save this past week.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Despite a strong strikeout rate of 12.04 K/9, Dotel’s ERA is currently sitting at 5.84. He’s given up a lot of hits and walks. He’s given up one earned run in each of his past four appearances.

Aaron Heilman | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Heilman has assumed the closer’s role after Chad Qualls posted an ERA of more than 8.40 and blew four saves. Don’t get too excited, though. Heilman has an xFIP of 4.67 and a ground-ball rate of just 27.5%.

Philadelphia Phillies placed LHP Antonio Bastardo (elbow) on the DL; recalled RHP Scott Mathieson from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

A 17th-round pick in the 2002 draft, Mathieson boasts low-to-mid-90’s gas, a sharp slider and a workable changeup. So why is the 26-year-old righty making his first big league appearance since September of 2006? Since Mathieson reached the majors in the summer of ’06, his career aspirations have been assailed by one injury after another.

The 6-3, 190 pound Canadian emerged as a quality starting pitching prospect in the Phillies’ system. Back in 2004, Baseball America noted that Mathieson had filled out his frame since signing and gained considerable velocity on a fastball that rarely left the mid-80’s in high school. Apparently dubbed “The Goose,” Mathieson ascended Philly’s list of farm talents — number 14 prior to 2005, sixth before the 2005 campaign and fifth leading up to 2006.

His performance improved with each promotion. As a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League in ’04, Mathieson had 7.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 4.32 ERA. In ’05, he whiffed 8.6, walked 2.5 and had a 4.22 FIP in the High-A Florida State League. Mathieson posted a combined 3.20 FIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.7 B/9 the following season while splitting the year between the Double-A Eastern League and the Triple-A International League. He was a fly ball pitcher, with GB rates under forty percent all along the way, but Mathieson’s velocity, K rates and improved breaking ball (he switched from a curve to a slider) earned him MLB innings in ’06.

That first foray in the majors was disastrous. Sure, the results (37.1 IP, 6.75 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 7.47 ERA, 4.91 xFIP) weren’t great. But it’s what happened on September 2nd — he felt a “shooting pain” in his elbow — that made it a nightmare. Mathieson was shut down and underwent Tommy John surgery in late September.

While the then-23-year-old began a rehab assignment toward the end of the 2007 season, it was transient. Mathieson had to come out of a late-August game at Double-A Reading and had ulnar nerve transposition surgery that September. He didn’t throw a pitch in 2008, as he became twice Tommy John‘d that May.

In June of 2009, Mathieson returned to the bump as a reliever. Pitching mostly at Reading while also getting some work in rookie ball and at High-A Clearwater, he had 8.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.08 FIP in 32.1 innings. BA ranked Mathieson 15th in Philly’s system heading into 2010, saying that he could “be an asset as a set-up man if he can stay healthy.” Our own Marc Hulet noted Mathieson’s high-octane performance in the Arizona Fall League and ranked him at the tenth best talent in the Phillies’ organization.

Prior to getting the call, Mathieson was pitching well with the Iron Pigs — 29.2 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a mid-three’s FIP. Per Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted major league equivalent line is 8.3 K/9, 4.75 BB/9 and a 4.90 FIP. Mathieson’s GB% remains under 40 as a reliever, a trait that could cause some headaches at Citizens Bank Park (three-year HR park factor of 114, according to the Bill James Handbook).

Mathieson likely won’t challenge Brad Lidge or an impressive Jose Contreras for late inning opportunities at this point, but he’s worth watching. If this persevering flame-thrower can stay healthy and limit the long ball damage, he could be a nice addition to a Phillies ‘pen that ranks a middling ninth in the NL in xFIP.

The White Sox boast a legitimate MVP candidate in Alex Rios (3.4 WAR) and the mammoth production of Paul Konerko (.417 wOBA), but their offense as a whole has largely underperformed. They have a .322 team wOBA, which tends to happen when you have seven players with sub-.320 OBP’s in the lineup as Chicago did yesterday.

Kenny Williams shook things up a little bit following last night’s win over Pittsburgh, replacing Jayson Nix and his .227 wOBA with hot shot third base prospect Dayan Viciedo. The Cuban defector signed a $10M big league deal before the 2009 season, though his performance last year was generally underwhelming (.280/.317/.391 in 540 Double-A plate appearances). Baseball America noted that Viciedo “can drive the ball to all fields and possesses tremendous opposite-field power” before the season, and he started to deliver on that promise with a .290/.329/.525 performance at Triple-A this season.

He’s a third baseman in name only, but he already has fantasy eligibility at that position in Yahoo! leagues and we couldn’t care less about how many balls he misplays. CHONE projected a .243/.273/.367 batting line with 11 HR and 59 RBI in 431 PA this year, which accurately reflects his unwillingness to work the count (just 26 unintentional walks in 795 pro plate appearances). Baseball America also noted that Viciedo “sits on fastballs to the point where he often looks helpless against offspeed pitches,” which will be his undoing in the bigs if he can’t adjust.

Regardless, Viciedo will run into one occasionally and hit the ball into the people even without the plate discipline, especially at U.S. Cellular Field (which has inflated homerun output by about 25% over the last three years). Homers impact four fantasy categories, so there’s definite value here. The White Sox aren’t likely to put many men on base in front of him, so the RBI total will likely lag a bit, but you should be in the clear as long as you’re not targeting him as an every day third base solution. Chances are Viciedo will pick up first base eligibility at some point, and a little extra flexibility is always appreciated.

Part of me gets the Jeff Francoeur vibe here, meaning that Viciedo will tear things up for a few weeks, then fall back to Earth once the book gets out how to pitch him. Again, I have no evidence of this, but it always seems like these extreme plate indiscipline guys initially perform well before dropping off. Perhaps it’s confirmation bias, I don’t know. Either way, Viciedo can provide a little pop at a bench spot or as an injury fill in, but not much more beyond that.