Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have played .500 ball to this point and have a run differential (negative 26) that suggests they’ve been lucky to break even, you can’t blame Jered Weaver. The 27-year-old righty, selected out of Long Beach State with the 12th pick in the 2004 draft, is turning in the best season of his major league career.

In 75.2 innings pitched, Weaver boasts a 3.40 expected FIP (xFIP) that places him sixth in the American League among starters tossing at least 50 frames. Weaver is displaying customarily sharp control, issuing 2.5 free passes per nine innings and getting ahead in the count with a 60.1 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average). But the biggest reason for his lights-out pitching is a large increase in whiffs.

Weaver is getting swinging strikes 11.3% of the time in 2010, well above his career 9.4% mark and the 8-9% big league average. His overall contact rate is 75.1%, besting his 78.8% career clip and the 80-81% MLB average. On a related note, Weaver is getting hitters to expand their zones more often, with a 31.6 Outside Swing% (27.3% career average, 25-27% MLB average in recent years).

Consequently, Weaver’s K rate has climbed:

Heading into 2010, Weaver had 7.32 K/9 during his career. CHONE predicted 7.25 K/9 for him this year, and ZiPS 7.1 K/9. After an eight punch out performance against the Royals yesterday, Weaver now has 9.87 K/9 on the season. That’s second among AL starters, behind only Toronto’s Brandon Morrow. But Weaver has actually K’d more on a per-plate appearance basis: Jered has a 27.1 K%/PA, compared to 26.1% for the control-challenged Morrow (those extra free passes extend the inning and give him more chances to whiff batters).

So, is Weaver doing anything different this year? Here’s his pitch selection over the 2009 and 2010 seasons (data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site):

Jered’s four-seamer is a tick quicker, and his whiff rate with the pitch has gone from below the six percent big league average to a robust 9.3%. He has added a two-seamer to his repertoire, which may help explain his (relative) rise in ground balls (37.8 GB%, compared to a career 32.9 GB%). The whiff rate on his slider has increased considerably (from 12.2% to 17.3%), though his curve’s rate of whiffs has declined (12.7% in ’09 and 9.3% this year).

Weaver hasn’t thrown his changeup as much this season, but when he does, he’s still getting a ton of swings and whiffs. The relative difference in velocity between his four-seam fastball and change has increased — there was an 8.3 MPH gap in ’09, but an 11.6 MPH split in 2010.

There’s also a change in terms of the relationship of horizontal movement between the two pitches. In 2009, Weaver’s four-seamer had 3.3 inches of movement in on the hands of right-handed batters, while his change had 5.7 inches of movement away from lefty batters (a 2.4 inch difference). In 2010, Weaver’s four-seamer has 1.4 inches of horizontal movement, and his change has 6.8 inches (5.4 inch difference). For reference, the average difference in horizontal movement between four-seamers and changeups (per Somers’ site) is about half an inch.

Perhaps that big gap in movement, coupled with the introduction of the two-seamer (which has similar horizontal movement as the change), is flummoxing hitters. According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Weaver’s fastball/change combo is faring better than ever: his fastball has been worth +0.64 runs per 100 pitches thrown (+0.07 runs/100 career) and his changeup has been +2.79 per 100 tosses (+1.38 career).

Is Weaver’s increased K rate to be believed? To an extent. Strikeout rate per plate appearance for pitchers tends to become reliable around 150 batters faced, and Weaver has taken on 306 hitters so far this season.

The change is Weaver’s whiffs is reflected in his rest-of-season ZiPS projection — the ROS ZiPS are so helpful because they incorporate a player’s performance during the current season, giving us a more accurate reflection of his talents. ZiPS projects Weaver for about 7.8 K/9 for the rest of 2010, compared to the system’s 7.1 K/9 pre-season forecast. While Weaver isn’t likely to keep whiffing well over a batter per inning, his increase in K’s should not be written off as a total fluke. Odds are, he’ll keep some of the gains that he has made.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Johnny Cueto – He cleaned up in May (4-0, 3.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 33 IP) but struggled in his first June start. Overall, his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 4.09 ERA. Cueto has been above average in both Ks and WHIP and should be in everyone’s starting lineup with his two home games this week. He gets the Giants and Royals, two teams below average in runs scored, at the Great American Ball Park, where Cueto has a 3.19 ERA this season.

Edwin Jackson – In three of his last four starts, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start. But each of those QS were on the road and Jackson has two home starts this week. In Chase Field, he has a 5.44 ERA and has been prone to the gopher ball, having allowed eight of his 10 HR at home. While Atlanta is not a big HR team, St. Louis is above average and the Cardinals have done most of their damage on the road, where they have hit 32 of their 50 HR this season. The Cardinals game has potential for disaster, so leave Jackson inactive if you have other options.

Colby Lewis – After posting a 2.76 ERA in April, Lewis fell to a 4.11 mark in May and allowed 4 ER in 6.1 IP in his first June outing. Lewis’ success is due to his slider but he faces the Mariners, whose sparkplugs Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins both do well against the pitch, and the Brewers, who have two of the best slider hitters in Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder. The combination of struggling pitcher and bad matchups make Lewis a player to stash on your bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – This season has been a struggle for Matsuzaka because he puts too many runners on base and has been unlucky with his strand rate. He did not allow a walk in his last outing, a game where he notched 7 Ks and picked up the win. Matsuzaka squares off against the Indians and Phillies, two teams that are essentially league-average in walks. With the Red Sox having scored 72 runs in their last 12 games, if Matsuzaka can keep from walking the ball park he has a good shot to pick up Wins this week.

Kevin Slowey – With his last two outings, Slowey broke a streak of six consecutive starts where he failed to complete six innings. He combined for 13.2 IP in his last two games and allowed just 2 ER and 2 BB. Slowey gets two home starts this week. He has a good ERA at Target Field (3.79) despite trouble with the gopher ball. Slowey has allowed six of his eight HR at home. But both the Royals and the Braves are below average in hitting HR, so make sure Slowey gets the start this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Weaver, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Lee, Gallardo, Cain, Hughes, Hamels, Haren, Pelfrey, Niemann, Marcum, Zito, Lilly, Lowe, Kazmir, Sheets, B. Anderson, Richard, Carmona, Wells, Floyd, W. Rodriguez, Francis, Medlen, Feldman, Galarraga, Volstad, LeBlanc, Hammel, Kendrick, Davies, Wakefield, Bergesen, Monasterios, Eveland, Huff, LeCure.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Eight pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.364 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Harang – Advised to start. 2 W, 7 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP (2)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. 8Ks, 4.77 ERA, 1.412 WHIP (2)
Leake – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 0.68 ERA, 1.575 WHIP (2)

Minnesota Twins recalled 3B Danny Valencia from Triple-A Rochester.

Valencia, 25, might not be long for Minnesota — he’s replacing RF/reluctant 2B Michael Cuddyer (bereavement list) on the active roster. Then again, while Nick Punto has an outstanding glove at third base (career +19.5 UZR/150 in more than 2,000 innings), he’s hitting below even his modest standards. Plus, Brendan Harris‘ all-around poor play has resulted in a sub-replacement level performance. Minnesota has gotten a combined .257 wOBA from its third basemen, a mark of futility topped only by the Astros.

A 19th round pick out of the University of Miami back in 2006, Valencia entered the year ranked as a top 10 Twins prospect by Baseball America (number six), John Sickels (eight) and our own Marc Hulet (three).

Valencia hit well at the lower levels of the minors, batting .302/.374/.500 in 271 Low-A plate appearances and .313/.367/.469 at the High-A level in 501 PA. He continued to show power at Double-A in 2008 and 2009 (.287/.353/.483 in 539 PA), but extra-base hits have been rarer at the highest level of the minors. In 483 PA in the International League over the past two seasons, Valencia has a .289/.321/.421 triple-slash.

BA, Sickels and Marc all noted that Valencia’s plate discipline was rough, and the 6-2, 210 pound righty batter hasn’t done an especially good job of working the count over the years. That aggressiveness at least came with above-average pop in years past. But that hasn’t been the case with Rochester, and he’s hacking even more to boot:

Low-A (age 22): 10.3 BB%, 22.3 K%, .198 ISO
High-A (22-23): 8.6 BB%, 20.2 K%, .156 ISO
Double-A (23-24): 9.1 BB%, 22.7 K%, .196 ISO
Triple-A (24-25): 4.3 BB%, 15.6 K%, .132 ISO

According to Minor League Splits, Valencia’s work between Double-A and Triple-A in 2009 translated to a .248/.285/.389 line in the majors. His tepid 2010 works out to a .255/.302/.324 major league equivalent triple-slash. CHONE (.252/.295/.388 pre-season projection) and ZiPS (.251/.294/.377) forecast similarly mild lines for Valencia in the show.

As a mid-twenties farm talent who doesn’t work many deep counts and doesn’t possess mammoth power, Valencia has the look of a less-than-ideal option as an everyday player in the big leagues. Those in keeper leagues will probably want to look elsewhere, and owners would have to be pretty desperate for third base help to pick him up for the short term.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Tied for the third most saves in the AL, Soria continues to post a very good strikeout rate (12.19 K/9) and to struggle with the long-ball (21.1% HR/FB). He recorded five outs this past week and three came via the strikeout.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: He’s still fighting his command a bit – especially with the curveball – but Bailey is coming on strong now. The sophomore closer saved three games this past week in as many tries.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: You must call him Mr. Soriano now. The Rays made a great move in acquiring the veteran reliever this past off-season as he’s really secured the back-end of the bullpen. Now the league leader in saves, Mr. Soriano saved two games this past week despite struggling with his control.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz hasn’t allowed an earned run in eight games. The young pitcher appeared in just one game this past week and earned the save. The time off was probably a good thing as he’s appeared in more games than any other closer in the AL. Interestingly, Feliz is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate below 23%.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Rivera saved two games this past week and has allowed just one hit in his past five appearances. The veteran also hasn’t allowed a run during that time frame.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Despite modest overall numbers, Papelbon continues to get the job done with 13 saves in 14 tries. He nailed both his attempts this past week but he was touched up against Oakland for a one run on a solo homer.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has a healthy number of saves but his ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate are nothing special. He saved three games this past week: two against Texas and one against Seattle.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde continues to post a shiny ERA below 1.00 but, while he has been good, he’s also been lucky. The right-hander has enjoyed a BABIP-allowed of .157, as well as a LOB% of 96.6. He’s had just one save opportunity since May 12.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks recorded the save in his only opportunity last week. The right-hander has an ugly ERA that has been impacted by some bad luck. He’s given up runs in just one game over the past seven and he tends to give them up in bunches. Jenks was torched for three runs on May 26 and four runs on May 9.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma went 1-for-2 in save opportunities over the past week and gave up three runs against the Angels on May 30. He hasn’t been overly sharp lately and has struck out just one batter since May 26.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes recorded a win and a save for his owners but he got beat up a bit by Kansas City and gave up two runs on June 3. He has not gotten a batter to hit a ball on the ground (for a hit or an out) in five games.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Wood saved two games over the past seven days but he also gave up a run and a walk in each game. After being hurt for a good portion of the season, Wood might be rounding into shape, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Closer by Committee | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Well, when you’ve lost eight games in a row there is not a big need for a closer. That’s a good thing, since the club has been snake-bitten with its back-end of the bullpen. All three relievers who have seen time there (Mike Gonzalez, Alfredo Simon, Jim Johnson) are hurt. It’s closer by committee right now.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: It was an ugly, ugly week for Gregg who has quickly gone from one of the best stories of the year to a pumpkin. Used four times this past week, the veteran reliever saved two games – while making it interesting – and blew another one. Actually, he didn’t just blow it… he exploded it with five sticks of dynamite (also known as walks). With four runs allowed in that game, his ERA has taken a huge hit. He’s walked 11 batters in his last seven games.

Here’s a pair of players with low ownership rates that could give your team a nice temporary boost…

Aubrey Huff | 1B/OF | Giants | 17%

Quick, guess which everyday player leads the Giants in wOBA? Okay, it’s Andres Torres at .380. But guess who’s second? It’s Huff, at .376. He’s rebounded very well from a dreadful 2009 season, thanks in part to the highest walk rate of his career (11.6 BB%) and his lowest strikeout rate in six years (13.5 K%). A slight (~2%) boost in Huff’s line drive and fly ball rates have pushed his ISO back up to respectable .174, so all he needs is some more men on base to drive in. Flexibility is always appreciated from bench players, but just make sure you sit him against southpaws (.331 wOBA vs. LHP, .392 vs. RHP).

Clayton Richard | SP | Padres | 37%

The Padres are in first place because of their stellar pitching (3.73 team xFIP, best in the game) and defense (19.2 UZR, second best), and part of that has been Richard’s rock solid work at the back of the rotation. Although his 2.87 ERA is propped up by a rather high 79.0% strand rate, his defense independent stats are very good (3.36 FIP, 4.08 xFIP), and his strikeout rate (6.65 K/9) is good for a matchup starter on a fantasy club. Two of his next three starts come against the Mariners and Orioles, who are always welcome opponents.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Yesterday Mike looked at starting pitchers who improved during the month of May. One reliever who deserves a mention in this category is Octavio Dotel. At the end of April Eno wrote a piece about who in the Pirates bullpen could replace him. It was a legitimate question to ask, as Dotel allowed runs in his final six games of the month. Here was his line in April:

9.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 5 BB, 12 Ks, 10.61 ERA

As you might expect, that line came with a .456 BABIP and an 18.8 HR/FB ratio. But at age 36 and in his first year with the Pirates, it was reasonable to think that he would not be given a long time to straighten things out. Dotel was given four games off and Evan Meek picked up a save on the penultimate day of April. Then Meek entered the game in the seventh inning in his next two appearances. He pitched the ninth inning on May 7th and picked up the loss. Since then, Meek has returned to a setup role and not pitched in a close game in the ninth inning.

The Pirates were able to return Meek to a setup role due to a 180 turn in pitching performance by Dotel. Since May 1st Dotel has appeared in 12 games and posted the following line:

12 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 18 Ks, 0.75 ERA

In those 12 games, Dotel has recorded 9 Saves and a Win. He went from a 2.143 WHIP in April to a 0.833 WHIP in May plus one game in June. So, what happened to make him so bad in April and so good once the calendar turned? First, let’s look at the stretch where he gave up runs in six straight games.

4/13 – 2B to Schierholtz, HR Velez (both batting lefty)
4/16 – 3B to Dickerson (LHB), SF Cabrera (RHB)
4/18 – HR Bruce (LHB)
4/22 – 1B Counsell (LHB), 2B Edmonds (LHB), 1B Escobar (RHB), 1B Weeks (RHB), 1B Parra (LHB)
4/26 – 1B Fielder (LHB), BB Hart (RHB), 2B Zaun (LHB), HR Escobar (RHB)
4/28 – 2B Braun (RHB), 1B McGEhee (RHB)

Lefty batters were just killing Dotel in April. Six of the eight extra-base hits he allowed in the above stretch came versus lefties. You know things are bad when Parra, in the game as a reliever, comes on and delivers a base hit. Flash forward to May+ and here was Dotel’s line against LHB:

1-10, SAC, 3 BB, 3 Ks

The one hit was an RBI triple by Kosuke Fukudome for the only run allowed by Dotel in the period. Overall Dotel has allowed 10 hits in 27 ABs to LHB, meaning they were 9-17 (.529) with a .1.176 SLG mark against him in the opening month of the season.

Trouble versus lefties is nothing new for Dotel. Last year LHB put up a .268/.422/.577 line in 90 PA. In his career lefties have a .749 OPS versus Dotel while righties have a.655 mark.

Given how the Pirates stuck with him through his first rough patch and were rewarded with outstanding pitching, it is hard to imagine Pittsburgh demoting him from the closer’s role any time soon. The best chance for Meek or Brendan Donnelly to pick up saves is if the Pirates flip Dotel to a contender. According to Cot’s Dotel does not have a no-trade clause. But a team option for 2011 becomes a mutual option if he is traded. His contract calls for a $4.5 million salary in 2011, a significant amount yet not a poison pill for any potential contender. If Dotel is not traded, the Pirates hold a $0.5 million buyout for 2011.

So, Dotel is a good option for Saves in the next two-to-three months. His April troubles came about due to bad misfortune against a subset (LHB) who already hit him well. But before you make him a trade acquisition target, understand there is a very real chance he could be dealt to a contender and moved to a setup role at or near the trade deadline.

When the Cleveland Indians shipped C/1B Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox last July 31st, the club picked up LHP Nick Hagadone, RHP Bryan Price and RHP Justin Masterson. Hagadone was the long-term gamble, a post-Tommy John power lefty who’s struggling to find the zone in the minors. Price, a reliever, is dealing in the Eastern League.

Masterson, meanwhile, was supposed to slot right into Cleveland’s starting rotation, anchoring a Tribe starting five no longer featuring the likes of CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. So far in 2010, Masterson has a massive discrepancy between his peripherals and his ERA. In 53.2 innings, the 25-year-old has 9.06 K/9, 4.53 BB/9, a 61.9 GB% and a 3.59 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is over 2.2 runs higher, at 5.87. That’ll happen when your BABIP is .404 — the next highest BABIP among starters with 50+ IP is Gavin Floyd, at .366. Masterson has also stranded fewer runners than one would expect (63.9%). But that’s not to say that the former Sox prospect is without flaws.

Masterson’s talents are apparent — from a near-side-arm delivery, the 6-6, 250 pound righty throws low-90’s sinkers boring in on the hands of same-handed hitters and sliders catching the low-and-away portion of the plate. However, the same attributes that make him hell on righty batters leave him helpless against left-handed hitters.

Giving lefties a long look at the ball and relying upon two pitches with very large platoon splits (sinkers and sliders tend to be hammered by opposite-handed batters), Masterson shuts down righties and gets lashed by lefties. Take a look at his career splits by batter hand (his 2008 and 2009 numbers are divided between starting and relieving):

Without a changeup to speak of, Masterson is forced to combat hitters of both hands with the fastball and slider. Those offerings work wonders against fellow righties, but leave him lost against lefties. Courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, here’s Masterson pitch selection and performance by batter hand in 2010:

Against right-handers, Masterson jams hitters with his sinker or a harder fastball with less sink and horizontal movement (still sinker-like action, though the Pitch F/X system classifies it as a four-seamer and it does look like a distinct pitch). Or, he goes to the other corner of the zone with his slider, getting well above-average whiff totals with the fastballs and the slider. Versus lefties, he goes most often to that harder heater, but struggles to throw it for strikes and just about never gets a swing and a miss. He’s also having issues getting strikes with the slider.

Currently, Masterson is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. AL-only players who are willing to play matchups could extract some value here — green-light him against righty-heavy lineups and bench him against a team with multiple lefty thumpers. He’ll undoubtedly pitch better from here on out, but in order to be more than a vexing fantasy option, Masterson needs to find a weapon to give him a chance against lefties.

You’ll have to forgive Cincinnati Reds righty Aaron Harang if he scowls in the direction of the Washington Nationals’ dugout on Friday night. His mound opponent, Livan Hernandez, has been Mr. Lucky this season. Livan holds a 2.15 ERA through his first 10 starts, despite a nothing-special 4.90 xFIP. Harang, by contrast, seems to have a black could hovering directly above his 6-foot-7 frame.

In 65.2 innings spanning 11 starts, the 32-year-old has a grisly 5.48 ERA. He has surrendered 79 hits and 11 home runs. It looks like Harang is getting hammered, and fantasy owners have jumped ship — his Yahoo ownership rate is down to 36 percent. But beneath those ugly numbers, Harang still possesses the skills of a quality starter worthy a roster spot.

Harang has whiffed 7.13 batters per nine innings, walking just 2.06 per nine. That way in which he’s getting those sturdy peripheral stats has been different in 2010. Normally a guy who fills the strike zone, Harang has instead relied upon hitters to chase his stuff off the plate. He has put 44.5% of his pitches within the zone (54.3 career average, 47.5% MLB average in 2010). But batters are taking the bait on outside pitches 30.4% this year, compared to a 24.4% career average and the 27.8% MLB average this season.

The process is different, but the results are the same: a slightly above-average K rate and few free passes. Harang’s xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, is 3.84. Few starters have displayed a larger split between ERA and xFIP. So, why is Harang’s ERA so huge?

For one, Harang’s batting average on balls in play is .338. It’s true that Harang has a higher-than-average BABIP during the course of his major league career, and he is giving up line drives at a 25.5% clip in 2010. But even so, expect that figure to regress somewhat — Harang’s career BABIP is .317, and his expected BABIP (based on the opposition’s rate of homers, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls and pop ups) is .315 this season.

He should also improve in terms of stranding base runners. Harang’s left on base rate is 66.2% this year, while his career strand rate is 73% and the major league average is in the 70-72% range.

Finally, Harang likely won’t be taken yard as often in the months to come. His home run per fly ball rate is 15.3 percent, compared to a career 11.2% rate and the 11% MLB average. Granted, Great American Ball Park produces more souvenirs than most venues — it has a four-year home run/fly ball park factor of 114, meaning GABP produces 14 percent more dingers per fly ball hit than a neutral field. But even allowing for that fact, as well as Harang’s fly ball tendencies, he has been unlucky.

GABP causes about 12.5 percent of fly balls hit to turn into homers (multiplying GABP’s HR/FB park factor, 1.14, by the average rate at which fly balls become round-trippers — 11 percent). At home, Harang has given up a home run on eight of his 50 fly balls allowed (16 percent). On the road, he has allowed 3 homers on 22 fly balls (13.6 percent). Overall, Harang should have surrendered either 8 or 9 home runs instead of 11. So, his HR/FB rate would be 11.1% if he gave up eight HR and 12.5% if he allowed nine HR. Harang’s not a great fit for his home park, but expect fewer slow trots around the bases for the opposition.

This would be a good time to snag Harang — he’s available in the majority of leagues, and he hasn’t suddenly turned into a punching bag. That black cloud above Harang’s dome should dissipate soon.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHP Dontrelle Willis from the Detroit Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner.

As part of the deal, the Tigers will pick up what’s left of Willis’ $12 million salary for the 2010 season, save for the prorated portion of the big league minimum.

From 2003-2006, Dontrelle averaged 3.8 Wins Above Replacement per season. Since then, the lefty with the signature leg kick has racked up just 0.7 WAR, losing all semblance of strike zone control while battling knee, forearm and anxiety issues.

Happily, Willis is backing to taking regular turns in the rotation. But it’s difficult to be especially optimistic about his ability to contribute. Moving back to the NL certainly won’t hurt the D-Train’s chances of a career revival, but in 43.1 IP with the Tigers this season, he had 6.85 K/9, 6.02 BB/9, a 45.5 GB% and a 4.93 xFIP.

Read the rest of this entry »