An interesting question came through the interwebbings in general and the rotographs mailbag in particular:

Normally, it is the other owners who panic and drop someone good but struggling, and I pick them up. But Gordon Beckham hasn’t done much of anything so far this season. There has been no stretch to give me hope. I am buoyed by the fact that he has 9 walks in recent games, but the 8 K’s that go along with it is still on the high side, and in any case, walks don’t count in my league and he isn’t hitting for much of anything.

Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond, Alberto Callaspo, and Starlin Castro are all available on my waiver wire. I already have Ben Zobrist and Elvis Andrus filling MI positions plus Pablo Sandoval manning 3B, so I’m covered while Beckham struggles. I need HR and RBI and thus why I hold onto Beckham so far. What do you recommend?

-M

This is a unique situation. While M is “set” at middle infield, Zobrist and Sandoval are struggling and holding on to Beckham means those players have to start through the struggles. If M wants to keep on chugging, he’d be best served by picking up one of the hotter middle infielders on the wire – most likely one of the Royals. But even if this is the move, who is the dropper? He’d want to drop the guy with the least upside, in order to keep upside on the bench. And since Panda and Andrus are virtually dripping with upside, we turn to Zobrist and Beckham as the most likely droppers. Let’s compare them to Aviles and Callaspo to get an idea of where to go. (For those touting Castro, I’ll say that the .111 minor league ISO removes him from home run consideration despite the hot streak so far.)

Let’s begin by using the ZiPs RoS projections as an eyeball test:

Zobrist .263/.356/.431 with 11 HR, 11 SB
Beckham .257/.330/.422 with 14 HR, 8 SB

Aviles .284/.313/.412 with 6 HR, 4 SB
Callaspo .293/.347/.427 with 7 HR, 2 SB

The eyeball test says he’s got the players with the most upside on his team right now. Though the batting averages of the guys on the wire are useful, M owns Fat Ichiro and would seemingly not need batting average as much as the counting stats. In fact, that may end the discussion right there… if not for the interim problem of being stuck with two struggling middle infielders, and the question of Beckham.

We’ve talked about how few statistics are significant in such a small sample size, but it’s the swing rates that stabilize the quickest. Well, Beckham is reaching slightly more (28.9% this year, 24.8% last year), but he’s swinging about the same overall (46.0% this year, 46.9% last year) and making similar contact (79.7% this year, 80.1% last year). The reaching is a little worrisome, but Beckham has always been a reasonably disciplined hitter with average walk rates (7.3% in the minors, 11.6% in college), and the difference is not so great that it suggests that Beckham is broken.

Instead, let’s point to two numbers that stabilize the slowest that suggest that Beckham will be okay. He owns a .241 BABIP (.279 career) and a .061 ISO (.160 career), and both of those numbers take more than 400+ plate appearances to become significant.

In this last bit of analysis lies the last wrinkle: Beckham has just barely passed the career threshold to make his ISO significant. In other words, he’s just now accrued enough plate appearances that his .160 career ISO predicts his future ISO at a 70% level. He did have a .197 ISO in the minor leagues, but he wouldn’t be the first player to experience a power dip upon entering the bigs. Since his speed is suspect (60% success rate career), if his power takes a dive, he’s obviously the dropper on this team. So M, if you are feeling antsy and want some batting average in the short term, it all depends on how strong your stomach is. But you’ve got all the upside on your team currently, and that’s usually the best way to go.

Bringing up the rear in baseball’s short stack division, the Seattle Mariners haven’t put many crooked numbers on the score board. The M’s have plated an AL-low 109 runs and, even accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field, the offense has been awful. With -31.9 park-adjusted Batting Runs, Seattle can only take solace in knowing the Houston Astros are making more outs (-55.1 park-adjusted Batting Runs).

Over the winter, the Mariners brought in a switch-hitter with a keen eye in an attempt to boost the club’s run scoring. Chone Figgins, fresh off a .298/.395/.393 season with the Angels in which he swiped 42 bases, inked a four-year, $36 million deal. Seattle decided to shift Chone to second base, giving him multi-position eligibility in fantasy leagues. The projection systems figured Figgins wouldn’t replicate his ’09 season, but they still envisioned a useful year at the plate for the 32-year-old:

CHONE: .272/.370/.358, .334 wOBA
ZiPS: .280/.373/.362, .339 wOBA
FANS: .291/.380/.374, .347 wOBA

But, instead of giving Seattle a high-OBP bat in addition to plus defense, Chone has slogged to a .190/.326/.241 triple-slash in 146 plate appearances. His wOBA is a ghastly .279. Why is Figgins falling so short of expectations?

Figgins is still drawing a ton of walks, with a 17.2 BB%, and he’s not swinging at many junk pitches off the plate (16.2 outside swing percentage; 25-27% MLB average in recent years). However, he has whiffed at a much higher rate than usual: Chone has K’d 26.7 percent of the time, compared to a 17.4% career rate. Figgins’ contact rate on pitches within the zone, 90.9% for his career, is 88.8% in 2010 (87-88% MLB average). His overall contact rate is 79.8%, well below his 86% career rate and close to the 80-81% MLB average.

In addition to swinging and missing more than usual, Figgins has let a lot of strikes go by this year. When opposing hurlers throw him a pitch within the strike zone, Chone is swinging just 48.6 percent of the time. For comparison, his career in-zone swing rate is 62 percent and the MLB average this season is 63.3 percent. Figgins’ taking more strikes has helped put his back against the wall more often and has likely contributed to the elevated K rate. In 2009, 50.5 percent of his plate appearances reached a two strike count (48 percent MLB average). This year, 55.5 percent of his PA have gone to two strikes (thanks, Baseball-Reference).

In terms of his batted ball profile, Figgins is hitting about the same number of ground balls. But more of his balls put in play are being classified as fly balls, at the expense of line drives. Figgins is hitting fly balls at a career-high 43.5% (34.3% career average), and hitting line drives a career-low 15.3% (23.4% career average).

Line drives fall for hits well over 70 percent of the time, so a steep drop in liners is certainly a negative for a hitter. A declining line drive rate and an increasing fly ball rate is even worse for a guy like Figgins, who has precious little power (.052 ISO this year, .095 ISO career). Fly balls hit in the AL have had a slugging percentage in the high .500’s in recent seasons, but Figgins’ career slugging percentage when he lofts the ball is .386. When Chone hits a fly ball, nothing much happens.

However, the distinction between line drives and fly balls can be hazy. Liners don’t show a high year-to-year correlation. It’s hard to say if Figgins really is struggling to rope the ball, or if perhaps the official scorer has binned some balls in play as fly balls that others might call a liner.

Even if we assume that Chone’s drop in line drive rate is legitimate, and that he’ll continue to punch out at a high rate, he has been hampered by a .250 batting average on balls put in play. His expected BABIP, based on his 2010 rate of homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls and pop ups, is .320.

Odds are, Figgins hasn’t suddenly fallen off of a cliff: his rest-of-season ZiPS forecast is .268/.368/.357 (.333 wOBA), with a .328 BABIP. Chone’s contact numbers and rate of liners/fly balls hit bear watching. But a league average batter, with stolen base chops and eligibility at the key stone and the hot corner, is a worthy fantasy option in most leagues.

Signed to a two-year, $12 million deal by the San Francisco Giants over the winter, Mark DeRosa was supposed to provide his new employers with a good bat and position versatility. Similarly, fantasy players looked the former Brave, Ranger, Cub, Indian and Cardinal to hit at a decent clip while qualifying at third base, the outfield and first base. He stood a good chance of re-gaining eligibility at the keystone spot as well.

Unfortunately, DeRosa’s surgically repaired left wrist continues to hamper him at the plate. Possibly headed to the DL with a nerve irritation producing numbness in his left hand, DeRosa fumed to MLB.com’s Chris Haft:

A brutally honest Mark DeRosa said Tuesday that the left wrist surgery he underwent last year was a “total failure” and will remain out of the Giants’ lineup for at least a couple of days to determine his next course of action.

“When’s the last time I crushed a ball? I feel like my bottom hand’s underwater. I don’t have much feeling in my bottom two fingers,” said DeRosa, a right-handed batter.

DeRosa last played Saturday, when he went 0-for-5 at New York and didn’t hit the ball out of the infield in three at-bats against Mets starter Johan Santana.

“It came to a full head in my second at-bat,” DeRosa recalled. “[Santana’s] throwing 88, 89 [mph] and I was sitting on a middle-in fastball. It was there on a tee. I went to move on it. When it came out of his hand, I [said], ‘This is a bare minimum double to left-center.’ The next thing I know, it’s a weak popup to second base.”

DeRosa, 35, served a DL stint last July due to the wrist problem and went under the knife in October of ’09 to repair a torn tendon sheath. It’s often said that wrist injuries sap power, and Beyond the Box Score’s Dan Turkenkopf found some support for that baseball axiom.

The agitated Giant split the ’09 season between Cleveland and St. Louis, suffering the wrist injury right after the deal that brought him to the Cards for relievers Chris Perez and Jess Todd. DeRosa hit for a good deal of pop with both clubs, finishing the season with a .183 Isolated Power. Given his age, even a healthy DeRosa figured to hit for less power in 2010: CHONE (projected .153 ISO), ZiPS (.161) and the FANS (.164) all called for fewer extra-base hits.

So far, DeRosa looks like he’s swinging 20,000 leagues under the sea. In 104 plate appearances, he has a .194/.279/.258 triple-slash, with a .244 wOBA. DeRosa’s ISO is .065.

While it could be a coincidence, DeRosa’s typically solid plate discipline has tailed off since he suffered that wrist injury:

(For reference, the MLB average for outside swing rate is in the 25-27% range since 2007; it was closer to 20% from 2002-2006. The average first pitch strike percentage has remained steady at 58-59%.)

The biggest increase in swings has been on four-seam fastballs. According to Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ Texas Leaguers site, DeRosa offered at 39.8 percent of four-seamers with Cleveland (45.2% MLB average). With the Cardinals, that swing percentage rose to 52.8, and has remained high at 51.9% with San Fran in 2010. Again, we can’t definitely prove cause and effect, but DeRosa’s run value per 100 pitches against fastballs was +0.88 with Cleveland, +0.23 with St. Louis and is -2.28 with San Francisco this season.

With DeRosa ailing, John Bowker (.266/.337/.435 rest-of-season ZiPS projection) could benefit by logging more starts in left field. Given DeRosa’s health issues, owners should abandon ship.

The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had snagged an under-the-radar starter when the club acquired Charlie Morton (along with prospects Jeff Locke and Gorkys Hernandez) in a June 2009 trade that landed Nate McLouth in Atlanta.

A lanky, 6-4 right-hander who displayed drastically improved peripherals at the Triple-A level (150.2 IP, 8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), Morton made 18 decent starts for the Bucs after the swap. In 97 innings, the Braves’ third-round pick in the 2002 draft posted rates of 5.75 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP, getting grounders at a 49 percent rate. Heading into 2010, the projection systems viewed Morton as a good bet to be an above-average big league starter:

ZiPS: 3.99 FIP
CHONE: 4.16 FIP
FANS: 4.16 FIP

A quick look at the 26-year-old’s stat sheet suggests he’s pitching more like Charlie Brown. Tossing 31.1 innings, Charlie has a 9.19 ERA. Good grief.

Look closer, though, and you’ll see some reasons for optimism. Using low-90’s heat, a pair of breaking pitches and a changeup, Morton has punched out 7.76 batters per nine innings with 2.87 BB/9. His xFIP is far less frightening than his ERA, at 4.00.

So why the ERA high enough to make manager John Russell turn greener than the Pirate Parrot? Morton has suffered from a .389 batting average on balls in play. When hitters loft the ball, it’s leaving the yard a whopping 21.9 percent of the time. Morton’s career rate is 11%, which is right around the MLB average as well. And his strand rate is absurdly low: just 46.8 percent of base runners have failed to cross home plate, the lowest figure among starters by a wide margin.

Morton clearly won’t continue to allow so many base runners to score, but he has experienced some problems pitching with men on during his big league career. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Morton’s splits with the bases empty and with runners on base, as well as the NL average for pitchers in 2009:

And here’s the change in Morton’s performance, compared to the average for NL pitchers in 2009:

On average, pitchers perform worse with runners on base. Last year, NL pitchers saw an increase of eight points in batting average and 24 points in on-base percentage with men on base compared to bases empty situations. Pitchers allow slightly fewer extra-base hits with men on, but they strike out a few less batters and walk more batters as well.

Even compared to the average pitcher, Morton has scuffled with men on base. His K rate has dipped considerably more than the average. Charlie has allowed plenty of extra-base hits with runners on, too, compared to bases empty situations (+74 points of ISO).

It’s true that strand rates can vary among pitchers, though numbers straying greatly from the 70-72% MLB average are likely to regress back toward the mean. These stats indicate that Morton does have problems with runners on base. But, even if one concedes that he struggles out of the stretch (some think he could be tipping his pitches), Morton’s strand rate is going to rise a good deal. The lowest strand rate among starters in 2009 (minimum 100 innings) was 59.3%, by Kansas City’s Luke Hochevar.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Morton to post a 3.99 FIP, with 6.49 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9. NL-only players willing to endure ridicule from fellow owners (you picked up WHO? Hah!) could get a solid starter with some upside in Morton.

Three guys will relatively low ownership that could help shore up some holes on your roster…

Orlando Hudson | 2B | Twins (36% owned)

Hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau has it’s benefits, and no it doesn’t have anything to do with that stuff about getting more fastballs to hit and whatnot. The benefit is that if you get on base, you’re going to score a ton of runs. O-Dog’s getting on base just about 37% of the time, so it should be no surprise that he’s scored more runs than all but seven players in the game. His walk rate (9.9%) and BABIP (.310) are in line with his career marks (8.9%, .316, respectively), so there’s no fall off to be expected. As an added bonus, Hudson’s also stealing a little bit more, once every 15.6 times on first compared to once every 21.4 times previously in his career.

(In case you’re wondering, Hudson has seen more fastballs this year, 66% in fact. That’s up from his career mark of … 65%.)

Ian Kennedy | SP/RP | Diamondbacks (18%)

It’s only May, but the former Yankee hurler has easily surpassed Edwin Jackson as the most productive member of this winter’s blockbuster trade for Arizona. After two kinda ugly starts to begin the season, the one they call IPK has held opponents to a Milledgian .616 OPS with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last five starts, and the matchups only get better: at Atlanta over the weekend, then at home against the Giants next week. He won’t maintain a .252 BABIP and an 82.9 LOB% forever, but a full season ERA right around 4.00 is well within reach. Just cross your fingers that the Diamondbacks’ bullpen can actually preserve some of Kennedy’s leads.

Aaron Rowand | OF | Giants (20%)

The gap between what Rowand is and what he’s perceived to be by the mainstream media types might be the largest in the game, but there’s no denying that the Giants’ centerfielder has been really productive in 2010. His .291 AVG is the second best he’s posted in the last six years, and there’s no BABIP funniness to worry about (.313 BABIP in ’10, .321 career). The power is the big difference; Rowand’s .221 ISO is well above his .169 career mark, and that’s because more than 18% of the balls he’s hit in the air have left the park. That is unlikely to sustain over the long-haul, especially considering home park.

Oddly enough, Rowand has a massive reverse split this year, but that’s something that should correct itself with time. I don’t like him as a top three outfielder in a standard 12-team league, but he’s a solid bench option to have around when one of your regulars has a day off.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

While looking through the Yahoo player listings, I came across some interesting names that are available in many leagues.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (11% owned)

I have to admit that I am a little surprised to see Latos available as much as he is. The sophomore hurler has the stuff to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, he’s had success at a young age, and he plays half his games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. The right-hander got off to a bit of a slow start to the season by allowing seven runs in his first two games, but he’s come into his own since hitting rock bottom on April 26 when he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings. In his next start at home against Milwaukee, Latos gave up just two runs in six innings. He then pitched in Houston and dominated the lackluster club with eight shutout innings, which included nine strikeouts. You definitely want to own Latos in NL-only leagues and you certainly want to consider using him at home in mixed leagues. There will be some inconsistency in his performances due to his age, but Latos is a respectable option.

Fred Lewis | OF | Toronto (5%)

I’ve never been a huge fan of Lewis but he’s really upped his game since taking over the full-time left-field job in Toronto. The former Giant currently has a triple-slash line of .309/.347/.500 in 101 at-bats. Lewis’ strikeout rate is alarming at 29.8% but he’s hitting with some power (.191 ISO). He’s definitely not an ideal lead-off candidate (5.0 BB%) but Toronto doesn’t have a lot of options right now. If he eventually moves down in the order, it could further help his value by giving him more opportunities to drive in runs. Despite his place in the order, he does have 13 RBI in 23 games, to go along with 14 runs scored. Although he’s not a speed burner, Lewis is quick enough to steal double-digit bases. You could certainly do worse in AL-only leagues.

Ryan Hanigan | C | Cincinnati (3%)

This past off-season, it was certainly disappointing to see the Reds bring back veteran catcher Ramon Hernandez for another season. Back-up catcher Ryan Hanigan certainly deserved a shot to play every day thanks to a solid all-around skill set. The catching job has been split between the two players in 2010, which has hurt Hanigan’s fantasy value; but if you’re simply looking to fill a catcher slot on your roster with someone that won’t hurt you (and has the potential to add a little value), then Hanigan is your man. The catcher is currently hitting .380/.492/.600 in 50 at-bats and he has a career line of .280/.380/.374 in parts of four seasons. Unfortunately, the split role is serving Hernandez well, too, as he’s currently having one of his best offensive (and defensive) seasons in recent memory. If you’re not ready to pounce on Hanigan now, keep him in mind if Hernandez’ playing time diminishes at any point.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Shin-Soo Choo – The current owner may look at Choo’s .392 BABIP and figure this is as good as it’s going to get, especially since Updated ZiPS projects him to finish with 17 HR and 16 SB. But Choo has always posted ultra-high BABIPs so he may not drop off as far as some might predict. The current ZiPS forecast seems especially pessimistic, considering that he went 20-20 last year and is on a current pace for 22-32.

Chipper Jones – He is very brittle and currently carries an uninspiring .230-2-7-13-2 fantasy line. But Jones is not one to look at things through rose-colored glasses and he considers himself to be seeing the ball good and just experiencing bad luck. “When I’m drawing walks you know I’m seeing the ball good,” Jones told David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Everybody points to the RBI, but when there’s not a lot of opportunities you can’t help that.” Jones is 6-for-19 with two doubles, seven walks and one strikeout in his past six games. Health is always a factor but Jones feels good about himself and he has been on a mini hot streak. It could all add up to a nice pickup for a low price, especially if his current owner is concerned about Jones’ current groin injury.

Johan Santana – This marks the sixth straight season that Santana has seen a rise in his xFIP and his K/9 continues to fall, down to 7.56, his worst mark since he was a reliever in 2001. Santana’s average fastball velocity has dipped below 90 for the first time in his career. But so much of Santana’s poor overall numbers this year (velocity excepted) is the result of the horrific outing against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 HR and gave up 10 ER in 3.2 IP. In his other six games, Santana has a 2.61 ERA with 9 BB and 34 Ks in 38 IP. Now, you cannot just throw out starts that you do not like, but you should not panic about one bad outing, either. Check to see if his current owner is doing the latter.

SELL

Tim Hudson – While never a big strikeout pitcher, Hudson generally gave fantasy owners good numbers in the other three categories for SP. But this year his K/9 is down to a dismal 3.45 or nearly half of his lifetime mark. His ERA sits at a nifty 2.64 but both his FIP and xFIP are around two runs per game worse than that. Right now it seems on the surface to be a typical Hudson year where he is good in three categories. But it is unlikely that either his ERA or WHIP will remain this low going forward.

Jeff Niemann – Like Hudson, xFIP paints a much bleaker picture of Niemann’s early-season results than his ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are nearly identical to 2009, when his ERA was 1.67 higher than his current 2.27 mark. Niemann is throwing his splitter twice as often as last year, and with good results, too. But it seems unlikely that his fine pitching early in 2010 has more to do with the change in his repertoire than Niemann simply being the recipient of good fortune.

Justin Upton – One of the first outfielders off the board in fantasy and likely gone by the second round in most leagues, Upton is off to a poor start. Whenever I recommend to sell a high draft pick not performing well, people comment that now is the worst time to trade him. Obviously, Upton will not be this bad the rest of the season. The key is to get more in return than he will produce the rest of the way. It seems to me his trade value is greater than the .274-20-70 that RoS ZiPS projects for him. In one recent CBS Sports league, he was dealt straight up for Matt Holliday, who seems likely to outperform Upton in AVG, R and RBIs going forward while it should be relatively close in the other two categories.

HUNCH

Nick Swisher – His BABIP is 56 points higher than his career average and his 17.5 HR/FB rate is 0.4 away from his career-best mark. But I predict that Swisher will keep up his strong performance throughout the season and exceed the Updated ZiPS marks of .264-28-94-92-1 at the end of the year.

Notes on three closer spots from around the league…

Manny Corpas | Rockies

Huston Street continues to work his way back from a shoulder issue, though now replacement closer Franklin Morales has landed on the disabled list with a shoulder problem of his own. Manager Jim Tracy indicated that the save opportunities will fall into Corpas’ lap for the time being. He’s not going to give you much in terms of strikeouts (6.75 K/9 in 2010, 6.43 career), but he won’t kill you in the ERA and WHIP categories. Corpas did cough up four runs in his latest outing, when he entered the 9th inning of a tied game against the Phillies yesterday.

Saves are saves, and the Rockies have series against the Cubs, Astros, and Royals coming up, so Corpas should see a few opportunities before one of the higher ups returns from the DL. He’s available in all but 13% of Yahoo! leagues.

Bobby Jenks | White Sox

Jenks has gotten shakier and shakier through the years, but it wasn’t until now that Ozzie Guillen went ahead and did something about it. The ChiSox manager told reporters that his closer will now depend on the 9th inning matchups. That means Jenks gets the righties, and Matt Thornton gets the lefties. Thornton is one of those rare setup men that is worth owning in a standard 12 team, 5×5 league anyway, but he becomes even more valuable with some save opps coming his way.

The strikeouts are extraordinarily high (14.67 K/9), the ERA (2.35) and WHIP (0.72) extraordinarily low, so go out and grab him before Ozzie gives the job back to Jenks outright. Thornton is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues.

Kerry Wood | Indians

After a month long stint on the DL, Wood made a pair of warm up appearances over the weekend and Manny Acta is ready to stick him back in the 9th inning. Chris Perez is takes a step back into a setup role. We know what Kerry Wood is by now, a double-digit K/9 guy that won’t kill your ERA or WHIP. I’ll put this as nicely as possible … the Indians aren’t going to give Wood too many 9th inning leads to protect, but there should be a few every now and then. There, that works. Their upcoming schedule includes six games with the Royals and Orioles, so there’s some hope for this week.

Wood is owned in 33% of Yahoo! leagues.

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.