Archive for May, 2010

NL Closer Report: May 27

Let’s have at it.

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton has been on fire recently and saved three games this past week. He recorded 11 outs and more than half (six) were via the strikeout. His early season drought is officially over.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is comfortably in third place in the National League with 13 saves. The right-hander has an outstanding strikeout rate at 12.00 K/9 and he’s succeeding despite a BABIP-allowed of .402 (thanks in part due to a LOB% of 90.6%).

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: If you thought Bell’s K-rate was nice, Wilson is fanning batters at a rate of 14.02 K/9. On the down side, his control has been off a bit and his walk rate sits at 4.15 BB/9. Wilson got in just one game this past week but whiffed all three of the batters that he faced.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: The closer with the most Ks in the Majors just keeps on striking out batters. Marmol has a 17.49 K/9 rate and he fanned 50% of the batters he faced this past week while also converting three save opportunities. He’s on a nice role.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Perhaps the biggest success story of the year, as far as NL closers are concerned, Lindstrom has come back from injury issues in ’09 to show excellent control (1.86 BB/9) in 2010, which has led to a solid ERA (1.40) and a respectable number of saves (10). He appeared in just one game this past week and converted the save; unfortunately, Houston has to have a lead for Lindstrom to have value…

Steady Performers

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez is used to being one of the leaders in save opportunities, but he’s had just 10 this season (and converted eight). The former Angel has showed improved control this season but his strikeout rate remains lower than it was during his prime. He’s a good closer, but no longer elite.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: For pure saves value, Cordero is one of the top targets in the Majors, but he’s not offering a good ERA, strikeout rate or WHIP. He received just one save opportunity during the past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner just can’t buy a save opportunity. The veteran closer has been solid this season but he’s had just seven chances. In 17 games, Wagner has a strikeout rate of 14.29 K/9. Perhaps you can buy low on the Braves closer? More opportunities should eventually come his way.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Like a number of closers, Franklin has struggled to find opportunities lately. The veteran had no chances this past week but at least he whiffed a few hitters in non-save situations.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The ERA is still high but Qualls’ season might be on the up-swing. The right-hander saved two games this past week and did not give up a run. He has a solid strikeout rate at 10.34 K/9 and has shown good control. Now he just needs to keep the ball in the yard.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel has already reached double-digits in saves for just the second time since he secured 36 games in ’04. The right-hander has been pitching very well lately and has given up just one run in his last 10 appearances. He just needs to improve his control a bit…

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Florida continues to hang in tight in the National League East and Nunez’ stability has been a big help. The right-hander, though, did not have a save opportunity this past week and he’s started to get hit much harder than he was in April. Monitor him closely.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to hold off Francisco Cordero for the MLB lead in saves but his numbers have been slipping lately. Perhaps he’s feeling pressure from the presence of Drew Storen? Capps went 1-for-2 in saves this past week and got touched up for two runs against Baltimore during his blown save on May 23.

Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Contreras failed to appear in a game this past week, which is a little puzzling. Lefty J.C. Romero notched a save this past week but Contreras remains the favorite for the late-game situations.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Corpas appeared in three games this past week and recorded two saves in as many opportunities. His strikeout rate is nothing to write home about (similar to his career rate) so keep that in mind. He does make a nice No. 2 or 3 closer in mixed leagues.

Fallen on Hard Times

Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Hoffman is taking a little time away from the closer’s role but Carlos Villanueva hasn’t taken full advantage of the opportunity. Meanwhile, rookie John Axford was given a save opportunity and he succeeded despite giving up a run in the process. Late games could continue to be nail-biters in Milwaukee for the foreseeable future.


Updating the Rankings: Outfielders (OF2)

Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.


Bud Norris’ 2010 Season

The Houston Astros don’t have much to celebrate these days. The club owns a 16-30 record, with a -73 run differential. They’re old, expensive and franchise players like Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman no longer figure to bring back top-shelf prospects in a trade. Years of player development neglect has left Houston with a dilapidated farm system boasting little outside of RHP Jordan Lyles, SS Jiovanni Mier and C Jason Castro. It could be years before the Astros emerge from the depths of the NL Central standings.

Right-handed starter Bud Norris was supposed to be one of the few Houston youngsters to make a positive impact on the big league club. A sixth round pick out of Cal Poly back in 2006, Norris notched 9.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in the minors, and he posted a 4.38 xFIP in 11 appearances (10 starts) with the Astros in 2009. Heading into 2010, I mentioned Norris (as well as Felipe Paulino) as a draft day sleeper:

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

At first glance, it looks like CHONE’s projection whiffed worse than Tommy Manzella at a slider. In 43.2 innings pitched, Norris has a 6.80 ERA. A closer inspection reveals reasons for optimism and continued frustration. The 25-year-old is far from a polished product, but his underlying skills suggest he’s still worth monitoring.

First, the good. Norris has whiffed 11.13 batters per nine innings this season, second-highest among starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched (Brandon Morrow is first). Bud’s garnering swinging strikes 10.9 percent of the time (8-8.5% MLB average), and his 73.8% contact rate is well below the 80-81% big league average.

But while Norris has often been dominant, his control remains scattershot. He has issued 5.36 BB/9, with just 43.8% of his pitches crossing the dish (48-51% MLB average in recent years). Bud’s getting behind hitters more than most, with a 56.6% rate of first pitch strikes. The big league average sits around 58%.

Even though Norris is being far too generous with the free passes, his xFIP is a useful 4.00. So, why is his ERA 2.8 runs higher?

For one, Bud has a .400 batting average on balls put in play. His line drive rate (25.6%) is very high, but it’s hard to draw any firm conclusions from that figure at this point. Even if you accept the premise that batters scorch the Norris offerings that they do make contact with, there’s no way that hits on balls in play continue to fall as if Bud were facing a team of Ty Cobbs. ZiPS projects a .334 BABIP for the rest of 2010. Norris has also stranded just 58.9% of base runners, well south of his 78 LOB% in 2009 and the typical 70-72% range for big league pitchers.

Right now, Norris is an aggravating blend of power and imprecision. He has also yet to prove that he can handle the workload of a major league starter — he missed time in 2008 with an elbow strain, was shut down a bit early last September with shoulder fatigue and he’ll apparently miss his scheduled start this Saturday due to biceps tendinitis.

With the injury concerns and inconsistency, Bud’s clearly not worth a roster spot right now. But don’t totally write him off. Beneath all the ugliness, there’s talent here.


Waiver Wire: May 27th

Here’s three players with relatively low ownership rates that could be a big boost to your team…

Gio Gonzalez | Athletics | SP | 30% owned

Gonzalez came into the season as Oakland’s fifth starter with 132.2 absolutely dreadful (6.24 ERA, 1.704 WHIP) big league innings to his credit, and his first three starts of the season were more of the same. Since then, Gio has turned it on and has quietly been on of the league’s best starters since April. His ERA sits at 2.72 (~3.40 FIP) over his last six starts, and he’s doing it with a little BABIP luck (.260) and the big breaking curveball that made him so highly regarded in the first place.

David examined Gonzalez earlier this month, and he’s continued his development into a viable big league starter. It’s probably too late to grab him in time for tonight’s start against the Orioles, but there’s still another 20 or so to go.

Anibal Sanchez | Marlins | SP | 14%

One of the other guys the Fish received in the Josh BeckettHanley Ramirez deal, Sanchez went from no-hit kid to the surgeon’s table in less than two years, and he’s just now rounding back into form. The righty had a pair of five run outings in his first two starts, but since then he’s dropped a 2.27 ERA (~2.60 FIP) on opponents in seven starts. Sanchez’s strikeout rate has steadily decreased since shoulder surgery (6.79 K/9), but the walks have followed along (down to 3.23 BB/9) while his GB% remains very strong on 44.2%. His next start comes against the suddenly offensively challenged Phillies on Sunday.

Josh Willingham | Nationals | OF | 36%

There’s only eight players in the NL with a wOBA over .400, and for the most part it’s guys you’d expect to be there. Ryan Braun, Jayson Werth, Chase Utley, so on and so forth. Not to be lost in that mix is The Hammer, who owns a .422 wOBA thanks to a league leading 34 walks. He’s even stolen four bases for good measure. Willingham’s 18.7 BB% is second in the NL to Chipper Jones, and is a function of not just swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (15% O-Swing% in 2010 compared to 18% career), but also seeing getting fewer pitches in the zone in general (44% this year, 50.7% career). Chances are he’s already owned if your league counts OBP, but even beyond that his power (8 HR, .234 ISO) and RBI (29) prowess have plenty of value for you non-OBPers.

Ownership rates is based on Yahoo! leagues.


Appreciating and Projecting Ubaldo Jimenez

Last year the baseball world was going crazy over Zack Greinke and deservedly so. After his start on May 26th, here was his fantasy line:

8 W, 0.84 ERA, 81 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Flash forward to 2009 and check out Ubaldo Jimenez through the same time span:

9 W, 0.88 ERA, 61 Ks, 0.925 WHIP

Greinke was a shade better but nevertheless we as baseball fans should be more wowed by Jimenez than we have been. Here on FanGraphs, we have had just one article between the fantasy side and the mainland on Jimenez, and that was a piece by R.J. Anderson that talked about four pitchers with ERAs under 1.00 in April. So it is like ¼ of a story on Jimenez.

Jimenez has been a fantastic fantasy pitcher so far in 2010. CBS Sports ranks him as the top fantasy player overall, as does Last Player Picked and the RotoTimes Player Rater.

My favorite Jimenez stat is his ERA+, which currently stands at 515. Of course with an ERA that low, you would imagine that his FIP and xFIP would tell a different story. While his ERA is 0.88 his FIP is 2.71 and his xFIP is 3.58, which still ranks 16th among qualified pitchers.

RoS ZiPS does not anticipate Jimenez coming anywhere close to his current pace. It projects an 11-9 record with a 3.84 ERA going forward. Those numbers seem pessimistic to me but last year Greinke went 8-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 161 Ks from May 27th through the end of the season.

My WAG on Jimenez for the rest of the season is:

13 Wins
2.50 ERA
125 Ks
1.200 WHIP

In the comments section, leave your projections for Jimenez from now until the end of the year. In the offseason, I will do a follow-up piece and acknowledge the person who made the best fantasy projection for Jimenez before his May 31st start.


Jeff Niemann: Sell-High Candidate?

The fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Jeff Niemann took a his sweet time reaching the majors. Niemann, a towering 6-9, 280 pound righty, stuck out over a batter per inning on the farm, but shoulder problems stunted his progress. Entering 2009, he was 26, out of minor league options and had all of 16 big league innings to his name.

After posting a sub-four ERA as a full-time starter with the Rays in ’09, Niemann has seemingly stepped up his game in 2010. He owns a 2.54 ERA in 56.2 frames. Is Niemann finally pitching like the ace that the Rays envisioned when the team handed him a $5.2 million bonus and a major league contract back in ’04? Color me skeptical.

Last year, Niemann’s expected FIP (xFIP), based on K’s, walks and a normalized home run/fly ball rate, was 4.53. In 2010, its…4.49. He struck out 6.23 batters per nine innings in ’09, walking 2.94 per nine and posting a 40.5 GB%. This year, Niemann has traded some punch outs for a few less walks and a few more grounders — he has 5.72 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 45.8 GB%. The extra ground balls appear to be the result of his going to a two-seam fastball with more sinking and tailing action.

Despite the marked decline in Niemann’s ERA, you’d have a hard time distinguishing his plate discipline stats from 2009 and 2010. Last season, Niemann got swings on pitches out of the strike zone 23.9%. This year, his O-Swing is 24% (25-27% MLB average). His contact rate was 84.3% in 2009, and 84.4% in 2010 (80-81% MLB average). Niemann is putting more pitches over the plate — his Zone% has increased from 52.1% to 53.8% (48-51% MLB average) — and his first pitch strike percentage has inched from 57.7% to 58.3%, right around the big league average. His swinging strike rate, 7% last year, is 6.6% in 2010 (8-8.5% MLB average).

The largest differences between Niemann ’09 and Niemann ’10 are in areas over which the pitcher exerts limited control. He has benefitted from a .244 batting average on balls in play. Tampa does play fantastic D, ranking fourth in the majors in team Ultimate Zone rating this season after placing third last year. But even so, that BABIP is going to regress significantly in the months to come.

Also, Niemann has stranded 84.5% of base runners, leaps and bounds above his 73.7% figure from 2009 and the 70-72% big league average. The big righty has a 7.6% home run/fly ball rate this year. That’s exactly the same as his ’09 mark, but it still seems likely that over the long run he’ll serve up a few more dingers and post a HR/FB mark closer to the 11% major leaguer average.

Jeff Niemann is a capable big league starter, a guy with the skill set of a 4-4.5 ERA pitcher. That has plenty of value to the Rays. But fantasy owners are best off marketing Niemann to fellow competitors as a former top prospect who is in the midst of a big breakout. Don’t be surprised if his results begin to resemble his 2009 work — Niemann is basically the same guy.


Bucs Call Up Walker

Pittsburgh Pirates placed 1B Steve Pearce (ankle) on the DL; recalled UTIL Neil Walker from Triple-A Indianapolis.

The ankle injury is a tough break for Pearce, as the 27-year-old was beginning to get some big league playing time with Jeff Clement (.235 wOBA) flailing at the plate. Still, Pearce is basically a first base-only player who likely doesn’t have the bat to hold the position. The Pirates experimented with him in the outfield, but the 5-11, 200 pounder doesn’t cover much ground. The former South Carolina Gamecock owns a career .281/.354/.482 triple-slash at the Triple-A level, and his ZiPS projection (.269/.336/.455, .345 wOBA) is a little light for first base. He’s the new Chris Shelton.

Walker, meanwhile, is trying to revive his prospect status after all but falling off the map. The 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft began his career as a catcher, but was shifted to third base prior to the 2007 season. The 6-3, 215 pound switch-hitter turned in modestly productive offensive numbers in A-Ball, given that he was behind the dish at that point:

Low-A South Atlantic League (2005): .301/.332/.452, 3.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .151 ISO
High-A Carolina League (2005-2006): .281/.331/.402, 5.6 BB%, 17.3 K%, .121 ISO

Baseball America ranked Walker as the #81 prospect in the game prior to 2005, #43 before 2006 and #74 leading up to the 2007 season. Before ’07, BA said that Walker’s power was muted in 2006 by a surgically repaired left wrist, but claimed he had “the potential to hit 30 home runs a season.” They did caution that he lack of patience could become an issue in the upper levels of the minors, and that Walker’s D behind the dish was a work in progress. “The Pirates might get more long-term production out of him,” BA said, “by shifting him to another position, and he has the athleticism to handle third base or the outfield.”

In ’07, the Bucs did move Walker to the hot corner, and he batted .277/.349/.434 in a season spent mostly at Double-A Altoona. His power improved somewhat (.157 ISO), and happily, he stopped hacking so much. Walker walked in 9.8 percent of his plate appearances, whiffing 17.4 percent. Baseball America again named him a top 100 prospect, placing him at #61 before the 2008 season.

The next two years of Walker’s career wouldn’t be nearly as sunny. At Triple-A Indianapolis, he batted .242/.280/.414 in 2008 and .264/.311/.480 in 2009. Walker popped some extra-base hits, with a .172 ISO in ’08 and a .216 ISO in ’09, but his plate approach was lousy. He drew ball four just 5.3% and struck out 20.2% in ’08. In ’09, he walked 6.7% and K’d 15.4%. Walker also missed time last year with a sprained knee and a broken pinky. The Pittsburgh native made his big league debut last September, but it was with considerably lower expectations than when the Pirates called his name back in 2004.

Prior to 2010, BA ranked the perennial top-100 prospect as just the 26th-best farm talent in Pittsburgh’s system. His scouting report was blunt: “he undermines his offensive potential by lacking plate discipline…Walker has expressed a willingness to become a super-utility player.” That, said BA, “may be his ticket to having a big league career of any length.”

With Indy this season, Walker has roamed around the diamond. He has logged time at first, second and third base, while also manning left field. He put up a .321/.392/.560 line in 189 PA. A .360+ BABIP certainly helped, but Walker posted a .239 ISO, walked 10.1 percent of the time and whiffed 18.5 percent.

ZiPS projects Walker to bat .259/.304/.439, with a .325 wOBA. His future in Pittsburgh remains hazy, though — Pedro Alvarez is going to man one of the infield corners in short order. And While Andy LaRoche will never be a star-caliber talent, he did post a 2.6 WAR season in 2009. If Alvarez takes over at third, LaRoche could be shifted to second base. Should Pedro play first, Walker could enter the picture at the keystone spot. The outfield corners are a possibility as well.

For now, Walker will get a little PT at third while LaRoche rests his achy back. Walker, 24, is no longer a top prospect. However, his position versatility and power make him a good bet to at least have a long career as a super-utility type.


Week Eight Trade Possibilities

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Jose Reyes – Those owners who gambled on Reyes might be ready to cut bait. In addition to his .232 AVG, Reyes’ walk rate is less than half of what it was a season ago, he has yet to hit a single HR after reaching double-digits in his last three healthy seasons and he ranks fifth in the majors with a 20.0 IFFB%. But since returning to the leadoff spot 10 games ago, Reyes is batting .283 with 8 R and 3 SB. It’s too late to get him for pennies on the dollar but RoS ZiPS shows him with 30 SB the rest of the way. And those will be worthy paying for if they come with above average R and AVG marks.

Wandy Rodriguez – His BB/9 is up, while his K/9 and HR/9 are down from a year ago. It adds up to an ERA 1.31 higher than it was in 2009 and an xFIP 76 points above last year’s mark. Rodriguez has struggled this year with his curveball. The pitch which had been such a strong offering for the previous three seasons now checks in with a wCB/C of -2.55, a change of 4.5 runs from 2009. It is hard to imagine his curve being so poor the rest of the season – the most likely scenarios are that he either improves with it from here on out or ends up on the DL. If his back can hold up, Rodriguez is a good buy-low candidate.

Ervin Santana – His numbers look solid overall but Santana has pitched very well after getting roughed up in his first two starts of the year. He allowed 9 ER in his first 11.2 IP but since then Santana has given up 19 ER in 57.1 IP for a 2.98 ERA. While his average FB velocity is still down from his big 2008 season, Santana is getting good mileage with his slider. On Tuesday’s start against the Blue Jays, Santana got 14 swinging strikes with his slider. His xFIP and RoS ZiPS both show Santana as a sell candidate but with each start he looks further removed from 2009’s 5.03 ERA and closer the 2008 version, even without the great fastball.

SELL

Adrian Beltre – Many people expected Beltre to bounce back in 2010 with his move to Fenway Park. Safeco Field suppressed power from RH hitters and many thought that Beltran would at least get back to his mid-20s HR power, if not more than that. But Beltre has a career-low 28.9 FB%, making a big HR season virtually impossible. Right now Beltre’s value is tied up in his .327 AVG, which is the result of his .381 BABIP. Beltre has topped .300 just once in his career. He has a .293 lifetime BABIP and his career-best is the .325 he posted in 2004.

Alex Rios – He has rebounded nicely from last year’s dismal performance and is on pace for 34 HR and 53 SB. But Rios has a career-high 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 45.7 FB%, also a personal-best. And not only is Rios hitting more fly balls, he has a 53.9 FB% in his home park, where he has hit six of his nine HR. Perhaps Rios has a completely different approach at the plate at home than he does on the road. But it is more likely to be a fluke. Odds are against Rios hitting 34 HR and even the 24 that Updated ZiPS projects might be optimistic. Clearly, at age 29, a career-high in HR would not be unexpected, but do not expect him to shatter his previous best of 24 HR. Also, Rios’ career-high in SB is 32 and in his other five full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 17 SB per year.

Alfonso Soriano – George Steinbrenner once dubbed Dave Winfield “Mr. May” and that moniker might work for Soriano, too. He is batting .347 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs this month with six games left to play. Lifetime, Soriano has 67 HR in May, the most of any month in his career. Soriano currently has a .363 BABIP and a .306 ISO, both of which would easily be career-bests. Fantasy owners likely got Soriano at a huge discount after his poor season in 2009. While they should not just give him away, neither should his owners look to get too greedy with a player who has missed 98 games the past two seasons.

HUNCH

Joe Saunders – I am a big Saunders fan because he consistently delivers Wins despite poor peripherals. Even with a 3-6 record this year, Saunders has a 51-28 lifetime record. After starting the season 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA, Saunders has seemingly gotten back on track in his last four games, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. I like him to better his RoS ZiPS projection of a 9-8 record and 4.84 ERA.


Waiver Wire: May 25th

After a short slate of games on Monday, the news is light. We persevere to find you some waiver nuggets for your pleasure.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (7% owned)
First, the flaws in the pro-Fowler case. He’s still striking out too much (25.8%), still having trouble against right-handed pitching (.537 OPS this year, .662 career), and still in a crowded outfield. The thing is, in many a deep league you still need to have a bench. And on that bench you could maybe use a bat that acts predictably in certain situations. Well, Fowler is a cheap bat that you can easily slot in against lefties. Look at his current OPS (.980), career OPS (.880) and career minor league OPS (.843) against lefties and you’ll see a pattern. Add in that he actually had a higher OPS against righties in the minor leagues (.859) and you have your ‘upside.’ In daily-lineup leagues, Fowler is a useful bench bat still, and could be more later.

Will Ohman, Baltimore Orioles (4% owned)
The merry-go-round in Baltimore went around another turn when Alfredo “Shutdown Sauce” Simon had to shutdown his sauce with a hammy injury. Incumbent closer Mike Gonzalez is at least still two weeks away from returning, and fellow Candidate Koji Uehara had to join Simon on the DL with some arm issues. No one wants to step forward and save this island. No matter, the O’s announced that saves would go to Ohman in the interim, and those desperate for saves will be forgiven for picking him up. The lefty is better suited to be a LOOGY (3.57 xFIP versus lefties, 4.87 xFIP versus righties) and his career ground ball percentage (39.9%) suggests that despite his good FIP (2.71) that home run rate (0) won’t last and it’s the xFIP (3.83) that better predicts his success. It’s okay. It’s only for a couple weeks and maybe four or five saves at best. They still count.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays, (2% owned)
You, like me, might have some barely startable flotsam or jetsam in one of your MI spots currently. Well, consider Brignac, who looks like he might be getting the lion’s share of at-bats at second base in Tampa. The respective UZR numbers for the possibilities at the position are too small to cite, but as the chunk of his defensive experience at shortstop is a little more recent than Ben Zobrist’s, it might make sense that his infield D is a little better. Or perhaps Brignac is not comfortable in the outfield and Zobrist is a jack of all trades. In the end, though, it’s less about his competition at second base – whiff machine Sean Rodriguez (41.4% K%) most likely – and more about the fact that there are a paucity of options in right field that causes manager Joel Maddon to put Brignac in the lineup. Gabe Kapler is semi-decent against lefties, but is better served as a backup OF. Rodriguez is also playing against lefties and doing pretty well this year (.897 OPS). But against righties, it looks like Brignac is getting some playing time. Which makes him interesting, because he’s always been okay against righties – see his pop (.186 career minor league ISO) and overall numbers (career .799 OPS) against pitchers of that handedness.


Scott Rolen’s Power Surge

Considering that he restructured his contract with the Cincinnati Reds during the off-season and is now signed through 2012, Scott Rolen won’t be hanging up his cleats anytime soon. But when he does, the slick-fielding, hard-hitting third baseman should get himself a plaque in Cooperstown.

Rolen’s all-around excellence allowed him to compile 62.2 WAR from 1996-2009, ranking in the top 100 all-time among position players. The former Phillie and Cardinal has added another 1.1 WAR to his total in 2010, and with a couple more productive seasons, he should creep his way toward the middle of that top 100 WAR list.

Earlier in his career, Rolen was a prodigious power hitter who routinely put up Isolated Power figures in the .200-.250 range. However, a serious left shoulder injury and subsequent surgery in 2005 sapped Rolen’s ability to rap extra-base hits. Save for a resurgent 2006 (.223 ISO), Rolen’s pop has been of the doubles variety — he had a .133 ISO in 2007, .169 in 2008 and a .149 mark in 2009. Entering 2010, CHONE and ZiPS projected more of the same for the 34-year-old:

CHONE: .275/.350/.430, .155 ISO, .344 wOBA
ZiPS: .283/.352/.439, .156 ISO, .350 wOBA

Instead, Rolen is raking. He has a .279/.344/.564 triple-slash (.381 wOBA) in 160 plate appearances, with a .286 ISO. Rolen has already popped 10 home runs this year after hitting eight dingers in 2007 and 11 in both 2008 and 2009. His home run per fly ball rate, between 5.4 and 7.4 percent from ’07 to ’09, is 19.6 percent this season.

As one might expect, Rolen is pulling the ball more and hitting to the opposite field less in 2010. Here are his spray numbers since 2007 (data from Baseball-Reference):

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a player’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. It’s set on a scale where 100 is average and above 100 means that the batter fared better than most in that split.

It’s important to keep in mind that the 2010 numbers are based on less than two month’s worth of games, so they’re more descriptive than predictive. But thus far, Rolen has been a fantastic pull hitter — 51 percent better than the league average, compared to nine percent above the league average in recent seasons. He’s hitting the ball hard up the middle as well. Nothing much happens when Rolen hits to the opposite field, and happily he’s going oppo less than 10 percent of the time.

It’s highly unlikely that Rolen continues to hit for this much power — if he did, he’d establish a new career-best ISO. But ZiPS thinks he’ll remain a useful hitter. For the rest of 2010, Rolen’s ZiPS projection is .283/.353/.461 (.358 wOBA), with a .178 ISO. It also can’t hurt that Great American Ballpark smiles upon righty pull hitters. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, GABP increased HR production for right-handed hitters by 29 percent over the 2007-2009 seasons.

Rolen’s Yahoo ownership rate is 44 percent, so he’s still on the wire in a lot of leagues. If you’re looking for help at the hot corner, you could do much worse.