Archive for May, 2010

Who Might Replace Brian Wilson?

I wasn’t the only one surprised to see Sergio Romo trot out of the Giants’ bullpen to start the ninth inning with a three run lead last night, some of the beat writers on Twitter were wondering what happened to closer to Brian Wilson as well. Romo recorded two quick outs before giving up a double to Melvin Mora, then was replaced by Jeremy Affeldt who got the lefty swinging Seth Smith to ground out to end the game and earn the save.

After the game we found out that Wilson is dealing with a groin strain, but like most pro athletes he doesn’t think it’s that big of a deal. His prognosis is still uncertain, but fantasy owners have to prepare for his time away. Romo and Affeldt are the obvious candidates to fill in, so let’s compare…

Romo: 1.54 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 3.64 career xFIP, 1.70 gmLI
Affeldt: 3.00 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 4.30 career xFIP, 1.75 gmLI

Just looking at those numbers, it’s clear Romo deserves to fill in for Wilson for however long that may be. Of course, common sense doesn’t always win out, and Affeldt has a distinct advantage in the Proven Veteran™ and bigger salary categories. Those aren’t the best things to base decisions off of, but we have to acknowledge that it happens.

Of course, Romo would have had the save last night if not for the double by Mora, but Bruce Bochy went right to Affeldt to face the lefty. Because of that, I’m tempted to say that Bochy will just roll with the matchups for now. In deeper leagues I would grab Romo because he’ll do more for your WHIP and K categories, and if it is going to be a matchup situation, the saves are going to completely unpredictable anyway.


Waiver Wire: May 1

Here’s a closer look at two North of the Border starters with ownership rates south of fifty percent..

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 8 percent of Yahoo Leagues)

The Jays acquired the 5th overall pick in the 2006 draft over the winter, parting ways with righty reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez.

Seattle’s previous regime decided to shove the former Cal star into the major league bullpen instead of giving him minor league innings to build stamina and sharpen his control, so Morrow has logged just over 100 frames in the minors. Couple that “starter, no reliever, no starter” drama with shoulder, forearm and biceps injuries, and you have a 25 year-old with less polish than some players who’ll get popped in the first round this coming June.

Even so, Morrow piques the interest of fantasy players due to his ability to blow the ball past hitters. In 28 innings this year, the 6-3 righty has whiffed 33 (10.61 K/9). His control is still scattershot (5.14 BB/9), but Morrow should certainly improve upon the 5.46 ERA that he has posted to this point. His xFIP checks in at 3.83, as Morrow has suffered from a high batting average on balls in play (.324). His strand rate (67 percent) could improve a bit as well. Owners in AL-only formats or deep mixed leagues should take a chance on Morrow.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays (owned in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues)

It’s often said that control is the last thing to return for starters returning from Tommy John surgery, but you wouldn’t know it from watching Marcum slice and dice hitters in April. The 28 year-old righty, who posted rates of 7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 4.24 xFIP in 2008, managed 7.41 K/9, 1.85 BB/9 and a 3.43 xFIP during the first month of the 2010 season.

Though his fastball couldn’t tear through tissue paper (86.8 MPH average), Marcum has never relied heavily upon his modest heater. Rather, he comes at hitters with a mid-80’s cutter, a mid-70’s curve and a plus low-80’s changeup.

He’s getting a decent number of swings on pitches out of the zone (27.8 percent, compared to the 26.9 percent average in 2010), with a 73.5 percent contact rate (80.8 MLB average) and a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate (8.3 percent MLB average). There’s little chance that Marcum continues to pitch like a low-three’s ERA hurler, but ZiPS still projects a useful 4.08 FIP for the rest of the year.