Three outfielders, one for standard leagues and two for the deepest of deep leagues…

Nick Swisher | Yankees | 53% owned

Best known as a three true outcomer, the former Ohio State Buckeye has been slightly more aggressive at the plate in 2010 than in the past (68.9 Z-Swing% in ’10 vs. sub-60% from ’08-’09), which has resulted in fewer strikeouts (18.9 K%), a slightly higher BABIP (.319), and thus a better AVG (.295). More contact for Swisher means more extra base hits (.253 ISO), and with the Yankees’ lineup, more extra base hits means more runs scored and more RBI for your fantasy team. As an added bonus, he also has both 1B and OF eligibility.

Brennan Boesch | Tigers | 1%

Called up once Carlos Guillen hit the disabled list, the lefty swinging Boesch has put up a .412 wOBA while facing nothing but pitchers of the opposite hand. His dominance of righties goes back to the last few years of his minor league career, so this is nothing new. You’re not going to get much help with the OBP category, but he’ll offer a nice amount of pop and good average if managed properly. Detroit faces lefthander David Huff tomorrow night, but after that you’re in the clear until at least the middle of next week.

Marcus Thames | Yankees | 1%

Signed during the offseason to be the team’s designated southpaw masher, Thames is going to see some more plate appearances this month because of Curtis Granderson’s injury. He’s sporting a small sample .503 wOBA, with basically all of the damage coming against lefties. Thames is obviously not going to maintain that pace all year, but he’s been a lefty killer his entire career (.367 wOBA vs. .326 vs. RHP), so 2010 is nothing different. With dates coming up against Jon Lester and Dontrelle Willis, Thames could pay dividends this weekend if you pick your spots with him.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues

Just a quick reminder to come back and visit on Friday for the live Fantasy Chat. We kicked off our weekly chat last week as I teamed up with FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron to answer questions.

We had some great fantasy-related questions. And I’m happy to say I have some good advice, including recommending Jhoulys Chacin for his start against San Francisco. The rookie right-hander went on to allow one hit in seven innings for his first win of the year. I also recommended Phil Hughes against Chicago, and he won the game with seven strong innings. We also had some good discussions on the likes of Colby Lewis, Bobby Jenks, Prince Fielder, and Mike Stanton.

Let’s have a look at a few Deep Keepers.

Bill Rowell | 3B | Baltimore
It’s really never been a question of ability for this former No. 1; his struggles have reportedly been more about attitude and drive. Some times it just takes a little longer for the light bulb to click on for players with questionable makeup. Let’s be cautiously optimistic that this is the case with Rowell. The good news is that he’s still just 21. The bad news is that he’s still in high-A ball, a level he’s been at for three years now. Despite just two homers, he has very good raw power and it’s nice to see him taking some walks and hitting more than .300 – even if it’s with an inflated BABIP.

Matt Davidson | 3B | Arizona
Arizona’s 2009 draft is looking good so far… fingers crossed. With two top prospects in low-A that both play third base (Davidson along with Bobby Borchering), the club has had to get a little creative with playing time so each has seen time at DH, which will hopefully not hinder their development in the field. It definitely hasn’t hurt at the plate for Davidson. The teenager is currently hitting .365/.396/.567 (.479 BABIP) with three homers and 12 doubles in 104 at-bats. He clearly has some work to do at the plate, though, as he’s walked just once all year and has 29 Ks.

Neftali Soto | C/1B/3B | Cincinnati
I’ve been a pretty big Soto fan since ’07 when he was taken in the third round of the draft out of Puerto Rico. He’s had his ups and his downs, but there is hope now that he’s fully ready to realize his potential. Soto has bounced around the diamond a lot, and he continues to do so this season, seeing time four positions, if you count DH. The most exciting development is that he’s seeing time behind the plate (and is actually hitting .500 while playing the position, 9-for-18). Overall offensively, he’s now hitting .306/.343/.500 with five homers in 98 at-bats. He’s repeating high-A ball, but is still just 21.

Austin Kearns | OF | Cleveland (9% owned)
Remember the good ol’ days when Kearns was considered good? Well, he’s not quite ready to give up the ghost. After two very lackluster years in Washington, Kearns has found his stroke in Cleveland. He’s currently hitting .333/.405/.561 in 18 games. The .435 BABIP and 27.3 K% lets us know that he’s not going to keep the average above .300 for the year, but there is still hope in the power category. Kearns currently has a .227 ISO rate and he hasn’t surpassed .200 over a full season since ’06 when he slugged 24 homers.

Juan Pierre | OF | Chicago AL (30%)
It’s not often that you’ll find the Major League steals leader available in 70% of leagues at the end of April. Unfortunately, speed is his only offering right now. Have faith, though. Pierre isn’t a great all-around ball player, but he has a career .299 batting average, so he’s going to improve over the .218 that he’s currently hitting. Proven speedsters like Pierre don’t post a BABIP of .227 forever and his 4% strikeout rate shows that he’s putting a lot of balls into play. Quite a few fantasy managers could use his extra 14 steals right about now; just make sure you can afford the hit in batting average.

Nate Schierholtz | OF | San Francisco (2%)
Schierholtz is finally getting a chance to play in San Francisco. The 26-year-old outfielder is currently hitting .350/.426/.517 in 69 at-bats. He’s owned in just 2% of leagues and he’d be in the Top 10 in batting average if he had enough at-bats to qualify. On the downside, he’s being platooned against left-handers (which is actually quite possibly a blessing) and he has yet to hit a homer this year. Have faith, though, the young player has excellent raw power so the homers are going to come. Grab him before he goes on a power run and gains more attention, especially in NL-only leagues.

Jose Contreras | RP | Philadelphia (6%)
With the recent news that Ryan Madson is going to be gone for a while, Contreras moves up in the pecking order for save opportunities. With Brad Lidge being as volatile as a pit bull in a washing machine, Contreras could see some end-game chances in the near future. In nine games, the veteran Cuban has a 0.33 xFIP, as well as a 16.43 K.9 rate and he has yet to walk a batter. Wow. Small sample size be damned. That’s still impressive.

*Ownership numbers based on Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

What do Angels third baseman Brandon Wood and Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan have in common? They share the sordid distinction of posting the worst weighted on base averages in their respective leagues (minimum 50 plate appearances). Wood, 25, trails all AL hitters with a .197 wOBA in 81 trips to the plate. The 24 year-old Coghlan, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, brings up the rear in the senior circuit with a .206 wOBA in 96 PA. What’s going on here?

Wood scuffled in a small amount of playing time with the Angels from 2007-2009, batting .192/.222/.313. Pitchers carved him up, as Wood walked just three percent of the time and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Still, it seemed premature to write off the Angels’ 2003 first-round pick as a bust. With Chone Figgins Seattle-bound, Wood had a good chance to take over third base. ZiPS, the FANS and CHONE all projected a mild performance for Wood in 2010:

ZiPS: .244/.300/.422, .316 wOBA
FANS: .254/.311/.445, .327 wOBA
CHONE: .246/.309/.453, .330 wOBA

At this point, L.A. and fantasy owners alike would be downright giddy if Wood could come close to those numbers. A .245 BABIP hasn’t helped, but he has been bad by any measure. He’s batting .179/.200/.231, and he’s hacking prodigiously. In posting a 2.5 percent walk rate and whiffing 30.8 percent, Wood has chased 41 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27% MLB average). The righty batter is down in the count before you can say “Francoeur”: Wood’s 67.9 first pitch strike percentage is slightly more than 10 percentage points above the big league average. Swinging at junk so often, Wood hasn’t made much loud contact. His Isolated Power is .051.

Coghlan, meanwhile, looks at Wood’s ISO with envy. The lefty batter has yet to post an extra base hit this season. That’s right: you have the same ISO as last year’s Rookie of the Year, .000. While he wasn’t a power hitter in ’09, Coghlan posted a .321/.390/.460 triple-slash (.372 wOBA). The projection systems figured that he would regress somewhat this season (his batting average on balls in play was .365), but his bat looked comfortably above average:

ZiPS: .287/.358/.413, .345 wOBA
CHONE: .296/.371/.434, .357 wOBA
FANS: .300/.379/.422, .359 wOBA

Instead, Coghlan is slashing .182/.242/.182. While he isn’t struggling to control the zone as much as Wood, Coghlan’s plate discipline has also been poor.

During his award-winning season, Florida’s ’06 supplemental first-round pick swung at just 20.9 percent of pitches out of the zone, walking 9.4 percent. This season, his O-Swing is up to 34.8 percent and his walk rate is down to 7.3 percent. Coghlan’s K rate has climbed from 15.3% to 27.3%, and his first pitch strike percentage is 62.5% (57.3% in 2009). Considering Coghlan’s showing in 2009 and his history of controlling the zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 13.1 K%), it’s surprising that he suddenly resembles a raw rookie.

Lunging at pitches that he normally takes, Coghlan has chopped the ball into the ground 52.4 percent this year, up from 47.6 percent in ’09. His BABIP is just .250, but Coghlan has popped the ball up 21.4 percent in 2010, compared to 7.1 percent the previous season (the MLB average is around 11 percent). Those infield flies are near-automatic outs.

Wood has lost just about all of his supporters in fantasy leagues (owned in four percent of Yahoo leagues), while Coghlan has retained some good will from his 2009 campaign (43 percent). For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects a .237/.291/.400 line from Wood (.305 wOBA) and a .275/.345/.391 (.332 wOBA) performance from Coghlan.

It’s hard to recommend Wood at this point, but Coghlan could be a decent buy-low option in deep mixed leagues and NL-only formats. Given his track record, it seems unlikely that he suddenly, permanently forgot how to tell a ball from a strike.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Josh Hamilton – There were a lot of doubts about Hamilton coming into the season, specifically if he could remain healthy. So far, so good on that end, although there will always be health-related concerns around him. Hamilton is laying off more pitches outside of the zone and has the highest BB% (11.6) of his career. Some will look at his .333 BABIP and 14.3 HR/FB rate and conclude this is the best he is going to do all season. But from a fantasy perspective, Hamilton could see a big rise in RBIs in the coming months. The Rangers have already removed OBP sinkhole Julio Borbon from the top of the order and hopefully Ian Kinsler can slot into his customary position ahead of Hamilton and bring his .391 OBP with him.

Justin Masterson – An 0-3 record and a 5.40 ERA has Masterson owned in only 41 percent of CBS Sports leagues. But it is hard to imagine anything but the shallowest leagues where a 10.46 K/9 is not worthy of a roster spot. Masterson’s walk rate has never been good in the majors, and this year is no exception with a 4.05 BB/9. But what is really hurting him this year is a 26.7 HR/FB rate. Masterson has allowed 4 HR in 26.2 IP. His xFIP checks in at 3.11. Previously Masterson has had normal HR/FB rates and if it regresses to those levels the rest of the year, he should be a very valuable fantasy pitcher, even on the 10-16 Indians.

Scott Rolen – The past three seasons, Rolen has played in 128, 115 and 112 games so he is not the most durable player out there. But he remains a productive hitter while in the lineup. And right now Rolen’s numbers are being dragged down by a .239 BABIP. He has a nice .250 ISO, thanks to 6 HR in 84 ABs. Obviously he will not be able to keep up that HR pace, but Rolen should easily surpass preseason expectations that he would hit just 10-14 HR. He has really enjoyed hitting in the Great American Ballpark, as lifetime Rolen has 14 HR in 208 ABs at the GABP. And once he raises his current .200 BABIP in road parks, Rolen could be on his way to his best season since 2006.

SELL

Jaime Garcia – Everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher, Garcia has seen his CBS Sports ownership jump from 24 percent at the beginning of the year to 84 percent now. We know all about his phenomenal ground ball rate and how pitching coach Dave Duncan has had success in the past with these types of hurlers. But now is the time to sell high. He has a 3.73 xFIP and RoS ZiPS projects him with a 4.43 ERA (although its IP estimate seems way off). Garcia is likely to remain a useful to good fantasy pitcher the rest of the season, but like Joel Pineiro can tell you, eventually you give up some homers regardless of how many ground balls you allow.

Kevin Gregg – If you look at Gregg’s FanGraphs page you might conclude that his success this season is due to throwing fewer fastballs and sliders and more cutters and splitters. Last year both his cutter and splitter were below-average pitches and both have been tremendous in 2010, helping Gregg to a 64.3 GB%. But PitchFX guru Mike Fast thinks that Gregg has not really changed his arsenal much at all and that it is more of a reclassification of the BIS identification system. Gregg has lost his closer’s role for the Marlins in 2008 and the Cubs in 2009. Right now he is on a nice hot streak so look to sell high before regression hits since he likely has not added anything new to his repertoire.

Aramis Ramirez – Many people view Ramirez as a buy candidate, since he got off to such a terrible start (perhaps due to not being fully recovered from injury) and his BABIP is so low. But the strikeouts are alarming, with his 25.7 K% the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that it tops 20 percent. Ramirez is not chasing more pitches out of the zone and his O-Contact% is nearly identical to what it was last year. Instead, it appears that most of the trouble comes from catching up to fastballs. Ramirez has a Z-Contact% down over 9 percent from last year and his wFB/C has gone from 1.36 a season ago to -4.90 in 2010. Meanwhile his wSL/C has nearly tripled, going from 0.55 to 1.44. Ramirez has started to hit better in the last week (only 4 Ks in his last 38 ABs, although with a .184 AVG) but there should be at least a little bit of concern about his slider-speed bat. This is not a recommendation to sell at all costs but to see if you can get close to his preseason value. RoS ZiPS still forecasts him to finish with 20 HR and 97 RBIs, nearly identical to its preseason prediction of 21 and 101. But I am not optimistic that he will hit those marks.

HUNCH

Brian Matusz – Most people would shy away from a rookie pitcher in the AL East who is a flyball pitcher in front of the Orioles outfield defense. While coolstandings.com shows the remainder of the Orioles schedule against teams with a .545 winning percentage, I like Matusz to exceed his Updated ZiPS marks of 10 W, 4.51 ERA and 7.16 K/9.

When San Francisco Giants starter Tim Lincecum broke into the majors back in May of 2007, he was a mop-topped, rail thin kid firing mid-90’s bullets toward home plate. While he still might fit the physical description of a high school freshman, his pitching approach has changed drastically over the years.

During the 2007 season, Lincecum averaged 94.2 MPH with his fastball, throwing the pitch about 67 percent of the time while mixing in 81 MPH curveballs (thrown 20 percent) and 84 MPH changeups (13 percent). Take a look at his pitch selection since that point:

Lincecum’s fastball velocity has dipped nearly three MPH since 2007, and he’s going to the heat far less often. Instead, he’s increasingly relying upon what can only be described as a toxic changeup.

According to our pitch type run values, Timmy’s change has been worth +3.27 runs per 100 pitches over the past three calendar years. It’s the sort of offering that can cause batters to have an existential crisis at the dish: Lincecum has thrown the pitch for a strike 75.9 percent this season (60.7% MLB average). It has a 34.3 percent whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). The pitch has been swung at 69.9 percent of the time (48.1% MLB average), to no avail.

While the Pitch F/X data differs somewhat from the Baseball Info Solutions data in the chart above, we can see that Lincecum is going to a two-seam fastball a little over 16 percent of the time in 2010. Previously, Lincecum tossed a four-seamer with little horizontal movement but a good deal of “rising” action, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. That may help explain Lincecum’s career-high 50 percent ground ball rate this year.

Lincecum, sitting 91 MPH with a four-seamer and two-seamer and going to his change over a quarter of the time, is even harder to hit than his previous, higher-octane self. His contact rate, between 74 and 76% from 2006-2008, is just 70 percent this season (80-81% MLB average). That’s tied with rotation mate Jonathan Sanchez for the lowest mark in the majors. Lincecum’s swinging strike, which ranged from 10.3-11.8% from ’06 to ’08, sits at an obscene 14.4. Opposing hitters just can’t lay off his stuff: Lincecum has a major league-best 35.8 outside swing percentage in 2010. That blows away his 24-27% marks the previous three years, as well as the 27% big league average.

In 42.1 innings so far, Lincecum laps the field with a 1.98 expected FIP (xFIP). The closest competitor is Roy Halladay, at a still-ridiculous-but-distant 2.78. Lincecum is punching out 11.91 batters per nine innings (best among starters) and has issued just 1.7 BB/9. Aside from his cap (the only thing nastier than his than his changeup), Lincecum has changed just about everything since he debuted. And right now, he’s pitching at a different level than the competition.

It probably came a year or two too late, but the Royals have finally called up Kila Ka’aihue, as he takes the place of the injured Rick Ankiel. Better late than never, I guess. The 26-year-old first baseman turned into a bit of a cult hero in recent years, thanks to his ability to completely annihilate minor league pitching while not getting anything more than a cup of coffee in the show.

After posting an ungodly .463 wOBA with 37 homers in 515 plate appearances split between Double and Triple-A in 2008, the Kila Monster dropped down to “just” a .368 wOBA and 17 homers in Triple-A last year. He lost 144 points off his ISO, but his BB% and K% went largely unchanged, as did his batted ball rates according to minorleaguesplits.com. For whatever reason, the power just took a bit of a vacation.

Thankfully, it’s returned this year. Ka’aihue is hitting .304/.466/.620 (.455 wOBA) with seven dingers in 23 Triple-A games (yes, it’s obviously a small sample), and he continues to walk more than he strikes out (230 BB, 169 K dating back to ’08). I’m a sucker for guys that take ball four more often than strike three, but that bias isn’t why I’m recommending Ka’aihue for your fantasy team.

He doesn’t have the big name recognition of say, Ike Davis, but the lefty swinging Royal doesn’t have the massive platoon split either (.821 OPS vs. LHP in the minors, .881 vs. RHP). He might not have the defensive value and long-term outlook of Justin Smoak, but he’s a bit older and his power is more present than projected. Ka’aihue is strictly a 1B, so something’s going to have to give with Billy Butler and Jose Guillen if he’s to get regular playing time. My guess is that Butler stays at first, Guillen goes to the outfield while Ankiel’s injured, and Kila DH’s.

He’s available in basically all Yahoo! leagues (except mine! bwahaha), and if you’re looking for a little boost from the 1B or UTIL spots, here’s your guy. That goes double if you’re in a deep mixed or AL-only league. If you hurry, you should be able to grab him in time for Wednesday’s game.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

People play fantasy baseball for different reasons and that’s great. One thing that amuses me is those who view a message board as essential to the success of a league. To me, a message board falls somewhere along the spectrum between insignificant and a downright nuisance. I am confident that a message board never made any fantasy baseball league I participated in better and some actively contributed to the downfall of a few leagues.

What do people use a message board for, anyway? From my experience, people have used it to communicate with the commissioner, make trade offers, complain about trade offers and trades, complain about injuries and complain about other things. I think people can use email for the first two things, keep the other three things to themselves and eliminate the need for a message board completely.

I recently had an issue in one league where I did not know all of the details surrounding the way the league handled waivers. I could have posted something on a message board. Instead, I emailed the commissioner directly, he emailed me back in a very timely matter and the situation was resolved without the use of a message board. Imagine that!

I also made a trade offer in another league I am in. I emailed the owner whose player I was interested in, made a proposal and we had some nice give-and-take, even if no trade came out of it this time. I got a chance to see how he viewed his players and which ones of mine he found interesting. All in all I thought it was so much more productive than putting out a generic, “Will trade Ks for HR” post on the league message board.

Basically, my issue with message boards is that their main purpose is a vehicle for people to complain. Whatever good uses they serve can be just as easily (and probably more effectively) handled with email. But they do serve as a way to contact everyone with your complaint of the day. I have enough people complaining to me about various things in my life – the last thing I need is an efficient way for people in my fantasy baseball league to complain to me.

But I realize that some people enjoy “the community” aspect that message boards bring. I just wish people would use that “community” to celebrate and be positive, rather than to bitch, moan and complain. Because that is really not part of any community in which I willingly choose to participate.

Here is a message that was on a board in one of my leagues:

“I have received absolutely NO trade proposals, which I find shocking given the top talent on my team. Guess you guys aren’t interested in Pujols, Votto, HRam, Haren etc.?

Are you guys even alive? Other than myself, XXXX, and XXXX, I have not seen any comments on the message board or anything.

Maybe I’ll do something rash and trade Pujols for peanuts just to shake things up in this league because it is full of a bunch of lifeless corpses….”

Now, this was just this individual’s third message board post. His first post was a FAAB question and the second one was a generic offer to make trades. So, he really has done nothing to make the message board anything special and then turns around and, yes you got it – complains about something.

Here’s an idea – if you want to participate in a league with a thriving message board – why not try to put something of substance out there instead of just complaining? Don’t look to other people to provide you entertainment (or whatever void the message board fills for you) when you provide none yourself. And finally, if you want to convince others to participate in something you find enjoyable, perhaps a different approach besides insults and threats would be more productive.

Would your fantasy baseball experience be negatively impacted if your league did not have a message board?