Two years ago it seemed as if B.J. Upton was on top of the world. He had just concluded his first full season in the big leagues at age 22 and he posted a .387 wOBA in 129 games. Then the Devil Rays became the Rays and Upton hasn’t been the same since.

Upton didn’t match his 2007 performance in 2008 but he clubbed seven homers in October to help Tampa Bay reach the world series. He experienced some shoulder woes that year and had surgery after the Rays were defeated by the Phillies in the series.

The stage was set last year for Upton to put together a huge season but the exact opposite happened. He missed the first week of the season and the left shoulder that he had operated on in the off season never regained full strength. This all amounted to an extremely frustrating season for Upton as he wrapped up the year with a paltry .310 wOBA over 560 at-bats. His .241/.313/.373 triple-slash was very underwhelming.

Upton has regressed over each of the past three seasons at the plate. Below is his wRC+ trend line over the past three seasons:

wRC+
2007: 139
2008: 119
2009: 89

That’s a consistent and scary trend. Upton’s production has decreased heavily from each season to the next since 2007 and it’s extremely unlikely that he continues such a dreadful trend in 2010.

Luckily for the Rays his plus defense still makes him a valuable player but if he could ever rediscover his stroke at the plate then he would be an extremely valuable player again.

Upton’s entering his 25-year-old season and there is much reason for optimism. A strong and healthy left shoulder should be helpful but there’s also some interesting and telling information that lays in the data. Upton will always strike out at a healthy clip but his career-low 9% walk rate is a point of concern. He walked at higher rates over the prior two seasons.

Upton’s BABIP cratered to .312 last season. Where is his true talent level? That’s hard to tell from his varying samples over the past three seasons. But the helpful BABIP calculator from the Hardball Times tells us another story. Here are his xBABIPs over the past three seasons according to the calculator:

2007: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .399. Difference- +61
2008: xBABIP- .353. Actual- .351. Difference- -2
2009: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .312. Difference- +26

The calculator cuts down on Upton’s BABIP spread over the past three years. The range of his xBABIPs is 15 while the range of his actual BABIPs is 87. There’s no doubt his 2007 BABIP padded his numbers and it set the performance bar pretty high for him at the time.

Despite the exact same (.338) xBABIPs in 2007 and 2009, Upton, hit the ball with much more authority in 2007. He slugged 24 homers in 2007 compared to just 11 last year and he had a career-low 15.4% line drive rate in 2009. His line drive rate was 19.6% in 2007. He also hit a career-high 13 pop ups last season.

All of Upton’s varying and perplexing batting lines can’t be chalked up to just lucky or unlucky BABIP variations. While it played a role there are reasons for such drastic performances and they cannot be easily explained. We may have a true conundrum on our hands and more data will be essential in determining who the real B.J. Upton is. These varying performances do suggest that his bum shoulder really could have played a big role in his lackluster production.

We do know from our nifty run values that Upton battered and bruised fastballs during his banner 2007 campaign. He’s never hit them so well ever since and this does help explain his performance dip. Perhaps that shoulder could have plagued him when he tried to get around on fastballs?

Upton also has funky O-Contact percentages over the past three seasons similar to his varying BABIPs. He’s made contact at a very below-average rate (except for 2008) when he offers at pitches outside of the strike zone. He was actually above-average in 2008 when he had a solid campaign at the plate.

Finally, what can we expect from Upton going forward? It’s hard to exactly say what Upton will do in 2010. He’s always had the ability, athleticism, and a mouth watering set of tools. Some scouts may not be surprised if he unleashes an MVP like season now that he’s in good health.

I think Upton’s 2008 season (.273/.383/.401) would be a nice modest projection (minus some OBP) for Upton and many of the projection systems here at Fangraphs have him projected in that area. It’s playing it safe but his BABIP should recover and that would push him closer to his 2008 totals.

Upton’s a toolsy player and he should be entering his prime. Barring health I’d expect the power to play and it’s fair to project him to drop around 20 homers next year. The 100 Fan Projections currently available have nailed The Upton Case right on the button. The Fans have him at .273/.363/.442 with 40+ stolen bases and I think that’s a very fair and accurate projection.

If you can grab Upton in the middle rounds of your draft then he would be a steal. But don’t be afraid to pop him a bit sooner than that. He’s ready to put that nightmarish 2009 to rest.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.

Minnesota Twins signed 2B Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million contract.

O-Dog might not be the same caliber glove man that he was during his days with the Blue Jays (-3.3 UZR/150 over the past three seasons), but the switch-hitter has shown improvement at the plate in his early thirties. You could pretty much set your watch to Hudson’s bat over the past three years: a 114 wRC+ in 2007 and 2008, and a 112 wRC+ in 2009.

His triple-slash line this past year (.283/.357/.417) looks less impressive than his work with the D-Backs, but that’s mainly the result of park factors. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Arizona’s Chase Field boosted run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009, increasing doubles by 20 percent and triples by a stunning 73 percent. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, has increased runs by four percent, inflating two-baggers by five percent and decreasing triples by 29 percent.

The 32 year-old doesn’t possess one standout skill at the plate. But he has a good eye, with a 10.2 percent walk rate from 2007-2009, and a 19.2 Outside-Swing% (25% MLB average). Hudson’s not an over-the-fence threat, with single-digit HR totals the past couple years, but he hit enough doubles to post a .142 ISO from ’07 to ’09. It is worth nothing that Orlando hit more worm-burners than usual with the Dodgers:

His groundball rate was 55.8 percent, compared to a career 49.9 GB%. If that trend persists, that portends to less pop for Hudson.

Here are Hudson’s projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 103 wRC+
Bill James: 106 wRC+
Fans: 108 wRC+
Marcel: 111 wRC+

It’s hard not to like this move for the Twins, as the club adds a 2+ win second baseman at a bargain price. Hudson isn’t a top-tier fantasy option, but he seems like a good bet to be 5-10 percent better than average with the lumber next year.

Perhaps it’s because I can’t grow substantial facial hair of my own, but when my grandmother-in-law very nicely sent along a shoebox full of baseball cards from 1978-1982, I was re-awed (sp?) by the facial hair (I say nicely because this is about the nicest thing she’s ever done (she once declared to a room full of people I didn’t know that my hair was obviously a perm (then she did so again during the processional at my wedding (!)))).

Being mathematical myself (take that sentence opening Mr. Connolly! (Mr. Connolly was my high-school English teacher)), I decided to sort them by some sort of mathematical function. Here it is:

Sort (1980, facial_hair, inches_of_face_coverage, wildness_of_look) = FaceHairRanking

After running my rather large sample size (200 or so cards) through the function, I have your top three players in FaceHairRanking for 1980 (drum roll please): 3) Gene Garber (Holy neck beard!); 2) Sparky Lyle (twirl those ends you bad boy!); 1) Al Hrabosky (Mad Hungarian is right!). Of course, these guys did other things (Garber had the now-rare trio of 10 wins, 12 losses and 14 saves in 1975, Lyle had a 127 ERA+ in almost 1400 innings, and Hrabosky, well, Hrabosky (I like writing his name (and saying it in my head)) threw with his left hand (and was mad), but I’m sure they are all eagerly awaiting their trophy (named the Tommy Bennett) in the mail.

Tortured intros aside (how much space did I leave for fantasy analysis?), this all does have a point. Let’s say you are in a deep league and you don’t want to reach on a catcher (reasonable enough), and you’re looking at catchers that are “Just off” our tiered rankings for the position (or below). How do you sort these guys?

If FaceHairRanking won’t help, what will? I mean, Yadier Molina (240.31 ADP), Carlos Ruiz (274.17 ADP), John Baker (322.9 ADP), Gerald Laird (325.7 ADP), and Jesus Flores (351.46 ADP) – cross your eyes a little when looking at their stats, and what’s the difference really (don’t leave them crossed, you’ll go blind). Maybe one will approach a .275 batting average (as opposed to .250), and maybe one will hit 10 home runs (as opposed to six), but most of them are interchangeable parts. So here’s an idea, sort these guys by reverse ADP! Seriously. Maybe Flores has the most threatening battery mate (but Ivan Rodriguez (329.87 ADP) is older than dirt in catcher years, and Flores is the youngest of the bunch), but you could really just wait past the 300th (!) pick in your draft, and then take whatever catcher you like. Boom – deep league catcher value article (book it!).

I do have a (less facetious) point that goes even deeper than the ADP rankings currently allow. Some leagues are so deep that you might even have room for a second catcher on your bench – in which case you can use a stolen tactic (from fantasy football) called handcuffing (like you’ve never heard of it). Why not take Laird and the (admittedly over-achieving) Alex Avila (ADP > 350) in order to make sure you have the (mediocre) starting catcher for the Tigers? That’ll cost you two end-game picks. If it’s a re-draft league, pair (ueberprospect) Carlos Santana (326.29) with the (less exciting) Lou Marson (ADP > 350). Or Taylor Teagarden (326.07) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (319.38 ADP) if you want a little more balance between your two guys.

If you’re a gambling type (and why not, if you’ve got no catcher and your deep league is wrapping up), here are two final names for you. They are both young guys, with some (former) gleam to their prospect shine, and an ADP value over 350, going up against extremely mediocre veterans. One is Adam Moore in Seattle, and the other is J.R. Towles in Houston. They might both deserve more words than I can (now) give them, but they both have some interesting minor league numbers (.301/.369/.483 for Moore; .299/.370/.493 for Towles) and some terrible big league numbers (.217/.250/.391 for Moore; .188/.280/.329 for Towles). But they both have mitigating secondary statistics (23 major league ABs for Moore (I know, not really a secondary statistic); .218 major league BABIP for Towles). Hey, Towles even ranks (reasonably) highly in today’s version of FaceHairRanking. (Please don’t hate me for my love of parentheses.)

In another edition of the mailbag, it’s time to answer a question from reader John R.:

I play in a 10×10 rotisserie league (all raw numbers, no averages), and have finished second for the past two years. I’ve been ok on picking keepers (drafting is another story), but this year it is down to three per team. I’m inclined to keep Braun and Kinsler as 1-2. My options for third are Votto, Granderson, or Gordon Beckham.

The three factors most affecting my thinking: 1. Kinsler hitting fifth; 2. Granderson hitting to left in New Yankee Stadium (and possibly losing ABs against LHP); 3. Beckham’s potential as a sophomore and positional flexibility.

I’d like to do the right thing this year, and any help would be greatly appreciated.

First off, can we all agree that keeping Braun and Kinsler is a certainty at this point? Yes? Good, let us move on.

Joey Votto’s numbers from last season are fabulous, but people often forget that he missed time with a stress related issue and could have put up even bigger numbers. He still hit 25 homers with a .322 batting average, adding in 84 RBI and 82 runs as well. However, a .373 BABIP is not going to happen again. Still, his average should sit above .300 in 2010, and combining that with his home run rate makes him a great first baseman.

Curtis Granderson in New Yankee Stadium is a scary thought. Plus, the lineup around him is fantastic, and should allow him to score and drive in runs at a level we’ve never seen. Granderson’s .249 batting average from 2009 is not cutting it, but neither is a .276 BABIP. He may not hit 30 homers again, but a conservative projection of 25 jacks and 20 steals with good runs and RBI numbers works for me, any day of the week.

It’s hard to know what to do with Beckham. First, he only came to the plate 430 times in the bigs last season. Second, he only had 59 minor league games under his belt, so we cannot go off of those numbers, either. Beckham’s .270 average from last season seems low, and is likely to rise due to a slightly low BABIP. Beckham did flash good power in college, so we can assume his 14 homers are also legit. He hasn’t been a huge base stealing threat in his career, but 10 steals is not out of the question at all. In the end, a quick prediction of a .280 average with 18 homers and 10 steals accounts for a good season to come.

But, which of the aforementioned three would you rather keep? I’m probably going with Joey Votto or Gordon Beckham, with Votto winning my heart in the end. Votto’s power production and high average will make him a highly covetable first baseman, of which the likes are hard to draft. Combining his numbers with Braun and Kinsler make your offense an immediate force to contend with.

Reader Jonathan G. asks:

I’ve got an upcoming decision for my keepers to make which I can use some FanGraphs expertise on. The keeper rules are that you forfeit a draft pick of the round your keeper is in minus 2. So if you keep a guy you drafted in the 5th round, you forfeit your 3rd round pick. My best keeper options (with rounds I would forfeit) are as follows:

–Chase Utley (forfeit 1st round)
–Adam Lind (forfeit 19th round)
–Adam Jones (forfeit 15th round)
–Gordon Beckham (forfeit 25th round)
–Andrew McCutchen (forfeit 25th round)
–Ubaldo Jimenez (forfeit 17th round)
–Jon Lester (forfeit 6th round)

My league is standard 5×5. My thoughts right now are to keep Utley, Lind, and Jones though I’ve given a lot of thought to keeping Beckham instead of Lind/Jones/Utley because of the value I’d get from keeping him in the 25th round.

I’d appreciate any time + thought that you can give to helping me out.

You didn’t explicitly say, but I am going to answer this with the assumption that you are limited to three keepers. Generally, you want to maximize value with your keepers. We can use the ADP numbers from MockDraftCentral.com as a proxy for value. Here are the numbers for your guys:

Utley – 4 – first round
Lind – 46 – fourth round
Jones – 87 – eighth round
Beckham – 93 – eighth round
McCutchen – 90 – eighth round
Jimenez – 105 – ninth round
Lester – 57 – fifth round

Here, Utley and Lester give you the least amount of value, relative to what you have to give up to keep them. I would also eliminate Jones, because of concerns around both his GB% (55.4) and Contact% (74.6).

Of the remaining four players, I think you can make a good case for keeping any of them.
Lind’s HR/FB rate is a bit worrisome, but he has a better batted ball profile and BB/K rates than Jones. His BABIP was slightly elevated but nothing too concerning. If you keep Lind, you do have to be a tiny bit concerned about his lack of SB.

Beckham begins the year as a 3B and should pick up 2B eligibility by the end of the month, assuming your league allows mid-year qualifications. He held his own as a 22-year old and had his best power month in September (6 HR). He did most of his damage on the road last year and given the hitter-friendly tendencies of his home park, it is not too hard to see him developing into a 25-HR guy as he matures. Ideally, he would have a higher LD% and a lower IFFB%.

McCutchen hit more HR than was expected last year. None of the preseason projections has him maintaining last year’s pace. Still, a 15 HR and 30 SB year is within reach and it is not impossible to see him topping those marks. One thing to keep in mind is that McCutchen did very well last year against FB but was below average against both CB and SL and will probably see more breaking balls in his sophomore season.

Jimenez is a ground ball pitcher that piles up strikeouts. He has three quality pitches and is clearly an ace-type pitcher. The Razzball Player Rater had him as the 57th best fantasy player in 2009. Jimenez did have a low HR/FB rate (7.8%) which gave him an xFIP higher than his ERA. But in 506.1 IP in the majors, Jimenez has an 8.3 percent HR/FB mark.

I would go Jimenez, Beckham and Lind.

The possibility of losing Utley is no doubt painful. But if everyone else has a first-round keeper, you get to re-draft him and keep him regardless. And if other owners opt to keep value picks, you should have other first-round talents to choose from when it is your pick.

Seattle Mariners signed 1B/DH Ryan Garko to a one-year, $550,000 contract with $525,000 in possible incentives.

Garko, 29, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier this off-season. So, to recap, San Francisco jettisons Garko (whom they acquired from Cleveland last summer for lefty pitching prospect Scott Barnes) to sign a more expensive, likely inferior first baseman in Aubrey Huff. Huh?

While Garko’s pact with the M’s is a one-year deal, the club retains his rights through the 2012 season, as he’s arbitration-eligible in 2011 and ’12 as well.

The righty batter has a career .279/.351/.441 triple-slash, with a 113 wRC+ and a .162 Isolated Power figure. In a 2009 season split between the Indians and Giants, Garko had a 107 wRC+.

Garko is presumably being brought in to thump lefty pitching, getting some time at first base in place of Casey Kotchman and at DH when either Milton Bradley or Griffey Jr.’s ghost aren’t occupying the spot.

Here are Garko’s splits during the course of his big league career, viewed through the scope of sOPS+. The Baseball-Reference stat compares a hitter’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 is above-average for batters.

Garko’s splits, 2006-2009

Sure, Garko has been better vs. southpaws, but it’s not as though he’s totally helpless against same-side pitching.

Of course, first base and DH types are supposed to mash, not merely hold their own: the offensive bar at those spots is extremely high. By comparison, Garko comes up a bit short as an everyday option. CHONE projects a .268/.343/.438 line in 2010, with a 110 wRC+.

For reference, the overall MLB line at first base last year was .277/.362/.483, while the overall DH triple-slash was .264/.347/.447. Also, keep in mind that hitters may lose some effectiveness while DHing. In The Book, Tom Tango found that batters perform about 4-5 runs worse per 600 PA at DH, compared to when they play a position on the field.

Garko doesn’t figure to hold significant fantasy value, given his part-time status and good, not great bat at the low end of the defensive spectrum.

Now that we know what kind of fantasy owners are out there, it’s time to discuss how to best humiliate, destroy and take advantage of the worst one of them. Today, how to beat the Dungeon Master. To refresh your memory, here is my crackpot definition of the Dungeon Master:

They play in so many leagues and attend so many mock drafts that you begin to worry about their safety. Chances are, if you are reading this blog (or writing on it), you may be the Dungeon Master. The Dungeon Master is always cool and collected at draft time. Even when his players aren’t making it to him in drafts, he has plan 1A at the ready. Be careful when trading with him, as he is probably looking to screw you over.

So, how do you beat the player who knows it all? There are a couple simple maneuvers you can pull on draft day and beyond to take down the Dungeon Master:

1. On draft day, you may have to reach a little for players. Since the Dungeon Master isn’t playing off the stock rankings, you shouldn’t be either. If you like a player that isn’t supposed to go for another 10 picks, but you don’t think he’ll make it back to you, take him. You cannot risk it. If you think a player is the best person left on the board, pounce on him.

2. Be social. The Dungeon Master fears four things in life: Sunlight, conversation, women and salad. He never goes out in public, so he doesn’t know how to react when he is taunted. He could take Albert Pujols with the tenth pick in the draft, and you should still heckle him. He may get thrown off his game enough to make a mistake. Don’t stop until he cries, drafts Carlos Silva, or wets himself.

3. Flooding his inbox with trade requests is another popular option. You can hope he has a moment of weakness and accepts, or simply hits the wrong button and accepts it anyway. Believe me, it’s happened.

4. Read RotoGraphs and study up enough to turn yourself into a Dungeon Master. It works, but only if you give up the rest of your life. And it’s worth it, I promise.

In the end, you are going to need some luck to beat a Dungeon Master. You have to hope his famously durable players succumb to crippling injuries (Brandon Webb) and for his team to slip in the standings. Finishing in second behind a Dungeon Master is nothing to shake a stick at.

Cincinnati Reds signed SS Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $3 million option for the 2011 season ($1 million buyout).

There’s no word yet if the option is for the player or for the club, but it’s likely a player option. Cabrera turned 35 in November, and he’s coming off of a 2009 season split between the A’s and the Twins in which he batted .284/.316/.389. Once park and league factors are accounted for, that offensive performance was 11 percent below average (89 wRC+), nearly a perfect match for his career 90 wRC+.

Cabrera has been average or better with the bat just twice in his career: 2003 (115 wRC+; viva Les Expos!) and 2007 (100 wRC+ with the Angels). However, he did at least provide fantasy players with 20-plus steals a year, and at a nifty success rate (78.9 percent career).

O-Cab’s speed appears to be waning, though. He swiped 27 bags in 30 attempts (90 success rate) in 2006, with a 5.7 Speed Score (the MLB average is about five). Cabrera hasn’t been as aggressive since then:

2007: 20 SB/4 CS (83.3%), 5.1 Speed Score
2008: 19 SB/6 CS (76%), 4.5 Speed Score
2009: 13 SB/4 CS (76.5%), 4.7 Speed Score

Cabrera is an upgrade over home-grown option Paul Janish at the plate, as CHONE projects an 89 wRC+ from Orlando and a 77 wRC+ from the 27 year-old Janish.

Whether Cabrera is a better player overall, however, depends on how you evaluate the two defensively. Janish posted excellent TotalZone ratings in the minors, and CHONE considers him about a +7 defender in full-time duty. Cabrera rated poorly in 2009 no matter what defensive metric you employ, but I have a hard time stomaching CHONE’s -15 projection for him. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore has Cabrera projected as an average defender in 2010. If that’s the case, then O-Cab figures to be about a 1.8-1.9 WAR player as a full-time starter, compared to roughly 1.7 WAR for Janish. This looks like a lateral move for Cincinnati.

Cabrera should only be on your radar if you’re in a deep NL-only format.

Colorado Rockies signed INF Melvin Mora to a one-year, $1.275 million contract.

Turning 38 this month, Mora played with Baltimore since a July 2000 trade shipped him from the Mets to Orioles. He compiled a 103 wRC+ from 2006-2008, but slipped to an 82 wRC+ in 2009 while battling a hamstring injury. Mora’s ISO dipped to .098 last year, as fastballs gave him fits. Since 2002, Mora has a +0.59 run value per 100 pitches against heat. But in ’09, he was at -0.93 runs per 100 pitches. That was the 7th-worst mark in the majors among batters with 450+ plate appearances.

CHONE projects an 88 wRC+ for Mora in 2010. Going to the NL and to the best hitter’s venue in the game can’t hurt, but his fantasy value appears limited. He’s being touted as an across-the-diamond utility type, but it’s been years since Mora saw substantial time at a position other than third base.