Even though this isn’t officially a mailbag post, the idea for this analysis came from someone with a question, who wishes to remain anonymous:

“I’m in a dynasty league, with no rules about rounds or dollar values for keepers. I have Slowey, Joba, and Cueto as potential keepers, but can only keep two of them. Which one should I trade or drop?”

Kevin Slowey only pitched through June, missing the last three months of the season after undergoing surgery on his wrist. Slowey looks poised to return by the beginning of the season, so his injury isn’t of much concern, especially in dynasty leagues. Slowey has superb control, so his WHIP should benefit from it. His high ERA in 2009 was inflated a bit by a fluky BABIP, but his home run rate will need to go down before he can be considered a top fantasy starter.

Joba Chamberlain is a hard player to project, because his role is up in the air. The Yanks are going to give him every opportunity to be a starter, and will be easing up on the “Joba Rules” next season. His strikeout rate as a starter is 8.40 per 9, while his K/9 as a reliever is 11.9. He also walks more batters as a starter, which is not a good sign of possible future success.

Johnny Cueto just finished up his second season as a starter for the Reds, lowering his ERA 40 points, and lowering his FIP 31 points. He did this by lowering his walk and home run rates, but he sacrificed strikeouts to do so. The Reds defense is good, so Cueto’s increased ground ball rate is another good sign. However, he doesn’t have much of an arsenal, and he looks to be maximizing his potential already, without much more of a ceiling to reach.

Of these three, I am keeping Slowey for sure. He is a safe bet to give you wins and a reasonable ERA and WHIP each year, with a decent strikeout total. This leaves the decision between Chamberlain and Cueto. Chamberlain still has more upside than Cueto does, so I would keep him as well. Cueto is a hard guy to cut loose, but you may be able to find a trade partner for him.

To sum it up, in a vacuum I’d rather keep Slowey and Joba over Cueto.

Baseball is a peculiar, charming sport. No matter how many scouting reports you scour or how many numbers you crunch, a player still occasionally comes out of nowhere and makes you say, “who is that?”

In 2009, Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee was one of those players to emerge from Quad-A anonymity.

A 10th-round pick of the Chicago Cubs in the 2003 draft, McGehee was McBoring during his minor league career:

McGehee’s career offensive numbers, by level:

Low-A: .272/.302/.391, 3.9 BB% 17.8 K%
High-A: .261/.310/.394, 6.7 BB%, 14.1 K%
Double-A: .286/.347/.422, 8.9 BB%, 14.7 K%
Triple-A: .282/.335/.410, 7.3 BB%, 14.7 K%

Sure, the righty batter’s numbers improved as he ascended toward the majors. He also dabbled at catcher, second base and first, while spending most of his time at the hot corner. But McGehee looked like a yawn-inspiring infield reserve.

In 2007, McGehee hit .273/.338/.422 in AA. That translated to a .226/.277/.333 triple-slash in the majors, according to Minor League Splits. In 2008, he turned in a .296/.345/.429 line in AAA. Casey’s work in Iowa equated to an unmighty .242/.282/.341 big league showing.

Following an ’08 season in which he got a cup of coffee with the Cubs, McGehee was claimed off waivers by the Brewers. While he wasn’t supposed to be anything more than a depth acquisition, McGehee saw extensive time with the Brew Crew in 2009.

In 394 PA, McGehee compiled a .301/.360/.499 line and a .367 wOBA. The 6-1, 195 pound batter, owner of a career .130 minor league ISO, posted a .197 ISO with Milwaukee. After walking in 7.4 percent of his PA on the farm, McGehee took ball four 8.7 percent in the majors.

He crushed fastballs (+0.82 runs/100 pitches) and changeups (+1.92), while finding big league breaking balls to be more of a challenge (-0.03 for the slider, -0.61 for the curveball). McGehee displayed a rather patient approach, swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone 20.1 percent of the time (25% MLB average).

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should cast a skeptical eye toward McGehee’s offensive feats. His rookie campaign with Milwaukee far surpassed anything that he accomplished in the minors. It’s possible that McGehee has made wholesale improvements in his game, but it would be wise to expect some regression.

The 26 year-old had a .335 BABIP in 2009, compared to a .305 Expected BABIP and a career .319 BABIP in the minors. Bill James foresees a .272/.328/.429 line next year, with a .332 wOBA. CHONE projects a .264/.326/.412 performance (.324 wOBA) in 2010.

McGehee dealt with a bum right knee toward the end of the 2009 season and had arthroscopic surgery in October. However, GM Doug Melvin said that the Cubs castoff “has taken the bull by the horns” in the competition for the third base job.

Lefty-hitting Mat Gamel figures to be the superior hitter (.356 projected wOBA from Bill James and .324 from CHONE). But his third base D is considered cover-your-eyes bad. McGehee rated poorly in a small sample of playing time in ’09, but his minor league numbers suggest he’s average with the leather.

Casey McGehee should be on radar screens, given Milwaukee’s apparent preference to open the season with him at third base. However, it’s worth remembering that Casey’s suddenly mighty bat was silent for many years in the minor leagues. It wouldn’t be surprising if McGehee’s second act comes up short of his initial Milwaukee mashing.

On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays picked up arbitration-eligible catcher Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a PTBNL.

With switch-hitting force Carlos Santana knocking on the big league door and Lou Marson having been snagged from the Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, the Indians are still sitting pretty behind the dish.

Dan Budreika covered Shoppach’s fantasy value a few days back. Shoppach’s lines were aided by exceptionally high BABIP figures from 2006-2008, before coming back down to earth in 2009. He still projects to be a quality backstop, with CHONE calling for a .229/.322/.422 line in 2010. For reference, the average MLB catcher batted .254/.320/.395 in 2009.

The addition of Shoppach in Tampa leaves incumbent Dioner Navarro looking like a prime candidate to change zip codes this offseason. The former Yankee and Dodger had a nice season at the plate in 2008, but he tanked in ’09. What happened, and what can we expect from Navarro going forward?

The switch-hitter’s BABIP has been all over the place over the past three seasons: .253 in 2007, .321 in 2008 and just .233 in 2009. As a guy who doesn’t walk all that much (career 7.6 BB%) or hit for much power (career .111 ISO), Navarro is subject to the caprices of his batting average. His wOBA figures from ’07 to ’09 reflect this: .280 in ’07, .330 in ’08 and .258 in ’09.

Using an expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a better picture of what Navarro’s BABIP projects to be based on his batted ball profile.

According to the tool, here are Navarro’s XBABIP figures over the past three seasons:

2007: .304
2008: .311
2009: .292

The XBABIP tool portrays Navarro as having a BABIP around the .300 mark over the past three years, compared to an actual figure of .271. His career BABIP is .279. Perhaps Navarro has been somewhat unlucky. But he does possess two traits of a low BABIP hitter: he runs like a catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score-the MLB avg. is around five) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 13 infield/fly ball percentage). In fact, Navarro’s IF/FB% has skyrocketed:

2007: 10.5%
2008: 14%
2009: 18%

Another negative trend for Navarro is his plate discipline. He walked in over 10 percent of his PA between the Dodgers and Rays in 2005 and 2006, but has progressively become more of a hacker:

Navi drew ball four 7.8% of the time in ’07, 7.4% in ’08 and just 4.6% in ’08. Not surprisingly, his outside swing percentage spiked this past year. He went fishin’ out of the strike zone 28.4% of the time, compared to the 25% MLB average and Navarro’s career 23.4% mark.

Clearly, Navarro was a mess in the batter’s box in 2009. It’s reasonable to expect his BABIP to bounce back up next year, though a number in the .270’s might be more reasonable than the .300 that the XBABIP tool suggests. Bill James projects a .254/.315/.367 line in 2010. CHONE gives a similar .254/.312/.377 triple-slash.

Twenty-six in February, the arbitration-eligible Navarro is a good bet to be traded or non-tendered in the near future. If he lands in a spot where playing time is plentiful, he’s going to have to rediscover his strike-zone judgment to be of use to his new employers and fantasy owners alike.

Marking the first major move of the offseason, the Atlanta Braves are all set to acquire Billy Wagner if he passes their physical examination. The deal is for a reported $7 million this year, with a $6.5 million vesting option for 2011 if he finishes 50 games in 2010.

The Braves used Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez in the closers spot last year, but after offering arbitration to both players, it seems unlikely they will return. Signing Wagner would require Atlanta to forfeit their first round pick, but they would receive two others if Soriano and Gonzalez decline arbitration and sign elsewhere.

When I wrote about Wagner in my brief Free Agent Fantasy Impact Series, I said this about his value:

“If Wagner can find himself a closer’s job for a contender next year, he will be in the top half of fantasy closers, if not the top 10. His ability to strike batters out and experience in the ninth inning should allow you to draft him with confidence, but make sure to have a backup option ready in case his elbow explodes again.

If he’s not a closer, he is still draftable in deeper and AL/NL only leagues, as he will give you good strikeouts for the amount of your allotted innings he uses.”

Wagner’s role with the Braves remains clouded. While his contract suggests he would be the full time closer, his recent injuries suggest that the Braves will acquire another late inning option. I believe the Braves enjoyed having a legitimate lefty/righty combo capable of finish games, and would like to have that ability again. Kevin Gregg is a player who comes to mind for the Braves, as his experience finishing games for the Marlins could be attractive to Atlanta. Kiko Calero and Octavio Dotel would also be options for the Braves to acquire.

If the Braves sign another closer, they will likely give both an equal opportunity to win the primary closers job. If Wagner can win it, he is a top half closer as I projected before. The ability to give him plenty of rest by pitching another closer could keep him healthy and fresh, actually helping his value by doing everything possible to ensure his health.

Wagner will always be a source of strikeouts and a low ERA, with a career 11.79 K/9 and 2.39 ERA. His 14.94 K/9 from last year is unsustainable, but dropping the number down to his career average is reasonable. The problems with control (4.60 BB/9) likely stem from his extended time off the field, causing some rust. Like I said before, if he isn’t the official closer, he will still gather some saves and help your fantasy club. If he is the full time closer, 30 saves is well within the realm of possibility.

No one will blame you for being cautious and passing on Wagner on draft day, and I may end being one of those people. For the rest of you, keep an eye on this situation, it could get interesting.

For major league hurlers, calling Petco Park home is the pitching equivalent of winning an all-expenses paid trip to Disney Land. Bring us your homer-prone, your waiver-wire wanderers, your injury-plagued looking for a fresh start. Petco wishes to help you (sorry, Mark Prior: even the Happiest Pitching Place On Earth has its limitations).

Until July of 2009, right-hander Jake Peavy enjoyed the ambiance of Petco. Make no mistake: Peavy has been a very good starter in his own right. But, his home ballpark surely aided him.

Courtesy of ESPN’s park factor numbers, here’s how much Petco has depressed offense over the past three seasons:

Petco Park, 2007-2009:

Runs: 0.76
HR: 0.72
H: 0.85
2B: 0.73
3B: 0.92

(1.00 is neutral. Numbers under 1.00 indicate a park factor favoring pitchers, and numbers over 1.00 favor batters.)

Petco’s a massive pitcher’s park: that’s not breaking news. But the numbers still are staggering. Run-scoring is absolutely smothered in San Diego’s home ballpark.

Peavy was shipped to the White Sox in a deadline day shocker last July 31st. Here are the three-year park factors for his new home:

U.S. Cellular Field, 2007-2009:

Runs: 1.09
HR: 1.26
H: 0.99
2B: 0.89
3B: 0.61

There aren’t that many doubles and triples legged out in the Cell. That’s because those batters are too busy leisurely trotting around the bases, while Hawk Harrelson shrilly does his best to shatter every window in the greater Chicago area.

Over the past three seasons, Peavy has surrendered 0.44 home runs per nine innings at home, and 1.01 HR/9 on the road. The 28 year-old isn’t an extreme fly ball pitcher (41.8 GB%), but his groundball rate is a few ticks below the league average. Some of those flys that were innocuous outs at Petco are likely to carry over the fence at The Cell.

Let’s assume for a moment that Peavy’s strikeout and walk rates mirror his Bill James projection for 2010: 9.08 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9. But instead of his HR/9 average coming in well under 1.00, he gives up roughly one homer per nine frames. That’s about 24 dingers in his projected 215 innings.

That would make Peavy’s projected Fielding Independent ERA about 3.70.

Maybe you feel that James’ K/9 and BB/9 estimates aren’t quite right. Peavy did cruise once he returned to the mound with the Pale Hose. But those projected K and walk ratios are a dead ringer for his career averages in the N.L., in a pitcher’s haven.

There has been a disparity in the level of play between the A.L. and the N.L. Last offseason, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times examined pitchers switching leagues over the 2004-2008 seasons.

He found that those going from the N.L. to the A.L. received a “penalty.” As one might expect based on the A.L. possessing the DH and clearly playing a superior brand of baseball as of late, pitchers moving from the N.L. to the A.L. saw an across-the-board dip in performance. Pitchers going from the Senior Circuit to the Junior Circuit saw their K/9 decline by 0.57, and their BB/9 increase ever so slightly (+0.05).

Let’s apply those marks to Peavy’s projections. Now, his FIP is about 3.85.

None of this is to suggest that owners should shy away from Peavy. However, it is important to consider park and league effects when projecting a guy moving from a pitcher’s paradise in the N.L. to a homer-happy venue in the A.L. Also, his last two seasons have been curtailed by injury.

Peavy’s good. But if you’re looking for another ERA in the low-three’s, you’ll probably be disappointed.

The Mets made a couple of minor moves yesterday, signing Alex Cora and Chris Coste to deals.

As of now, Cora will be the backup middle infielder for the Mets. When Jose Reyes went out with a leg injury, Cora stepped in and ended up playing 82 games for New York last year. In his 308 plate appearance, Cora hit .251/.320/.310 and only scored 31 runs. He stole 8 bases in 11 tries, adding in a single homer and 18 RBI. Cora swings at less than 40% of the pitches he sees, but has an astounding 93.7% contact rate. Simply put, when the man swings, he puts a bat on the ball.

By signing Cora, the Mets are giving themselves an option if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. Cora would likely step in and start at second base if Castillo is gone, but his fantasy value is minimal, even in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. He isn’t much of a hitter, and won’t contribute much (if anything) to your fantasy squad. Stay far away from Cora, even if he ends up starting.

Coste will likely fight for the backup catcher role with Omir Santos, who is already on the Mets roster. Coste last played for Houston in 2009, but spent the first part of the year with the Phillies. Coste hit .224/.301/.317 with 2 homers in 230 plate appearances last season. The lack of homers from Coste was a surprise, as his previous career low was 5 (in 137 PA’s), and is reflected in his 3.4% HR/FB%. This is likely to rise a bit, but playing in Citi Field won’t help anything.

The Mets are looking at Bengie Molina to fill their starting catcher role, but may stay away from him if the Giants offer him arbitration. Regardless, the Mets will look to bring in another catcher, and may hand the role over to prospect Josh Thole if it comes to it. However, Coste is a great guy to have on a major league roster because he smacks lefties around (.294/.345/.476 with 9 homers in 254 career PA). While he isn’t someone you draft as-is, if the Mets end up handing Coste the starting gig he may be worth a late draft pick in deep leagues if you have room to carry two catchers on your roster, allowing you to play him against southpaws.

Both of the moves the Mets made don’t have a great fantasy impact, but it does show their intentions for the rest of the offseason. And that, my friends, could have quite the impact on your roster.