The Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks have just finished up a deal that involves Max Scherzer, Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson.

Yankees Receive: Granderson
Tigers Receive: Scherzer, A. Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke
D’Backs Receive: E. Jackson, Kennedy

Without arguing about who won the deal, let’s analyze how this may change each player’s fantasy value.

Granderson – Grandy moves to a park that is heaven for left handed power hitters. Granderson hit 30 jacks while playing in Detroit, so I am salivating at the chances Grandy will have for dingers in New Yankee Stadium. It is unclear where Grandy fits in the Yankees lineup, but he will likely hit second behind Derek Jeter. While Johnny Damon occupied this spot last year, it is going to take a very cheap deal for him to return to New York next year.

Scherzer – Moving to the AL won’t help Scherzer, nor will the defense behind him. Scherzer is a strikeout machine, and should perform just fine in the AL. The possibility of more run support and added wins will be an added plus for Scherzer going into drafts.

A. Jackson – I doubt he starts the year in the bigs, but I think he ends the year starting for the Tigers. This is what would have likely happened in New York, so Jackson’s value doesn’t take much of a hit.

Schlereth – He has a great strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate. His ERA will certainly be lower next year due to his BABIP and LOB%. Depending on what happens with Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, Schlereth could compete for the closers role.

Coke – Coke will likely compete with Schlereth for the closers job, but all of this is just speculation because we aren’t sure what the Tigers plan to do with their bullpen during the remainder of the offseason.

E. Jackson – Jackson’s 13 wins last year now seem to be hard to reach in 2010. Jackson’s new defense is good, but not spectacular. Jackson will continue to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but this will knock him down a few spots.

Kennedy – It’s unclear where he will start the year. The D’Backs seem to be having an option competition for a rotation spot or two, but don’t be surprised to see Kennedy spend another half-season in the minors waiting for an injury to occur.

Out of all the players dealt, Granderson’s value will rise the most. He looked to be a sleeper candidate going into the year, but this trade will bring him back into the limelight and raise his value to what it should have been in the first place. Those of you who used a keeper spot on Grandy, I salute you.

Lost in all of the hot stove rumblings from the winter meetings yesterday was some moves that Rangers manager Ron Washington mentioned in his “state of the team” press conference. In his presser, Washington said that Julio Borbon will play centerfield and bat leadoff, allowing Josh Hamilton to move to left field. However, these plans could change if Marlon Byrd resigns with the team.

After being called up in early August, Borbon hit .312/.376/.414, stealing 19 bases in 23 tries. He also hit 4 homers in 179 plate appearances. You, the fan, project Borbon to hit .297/.355/.392 next year, with 33 steals in 116 games. I am a bit more optimistic when it comes to Borbon’s average, which I believe could stay above .300, but a .297 average is still acceptable if he steals 30+ bases. While Borbon is a great player, things have to go a certain way this offseason for him to keep his current value. It will probably take more than Byrd signing with the team to drop Borbon out of the lineup, because Byrd could play left field and allow Hamilton to play DH. However, if the Rangers resign Byrd and pickup a DH, Borbon’s playing time would hit a significant snag. I don’t see the Rangers signing Byrd at all, let along Byrd and a DH, so Borbon is safe in my book.

Also mentioned was the Rangers plan to bat shortstop Elvis Andrus ninth in the order, allowing he and Borbon to hit back-to-back. Many owners, such as myself, have been hoping that Andrus would be moved up in the order, allowing him score more runs and get more at-bats for extra stolen base chances.

Andrus hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals in 541 plate appearances. Fans are projecting a .277 average with 42 steals next year, numbers bound to make any owner happy. We know Andrus is going to play, but more at-bats throughout the year would have been nice to have, even if it doesn’t necessarily hurt his value.

The St. Louis Cardinals have reportedly come to terms with RHP Brad Penny on a one-year, $7.5M deal, with $1.5M in possible incentives.

Following an injury-marred 2008 season with the Dodgers, Penny inked a one-year, $5M deal with the Red Sox last season. Brad ended up getting the boot in Boston in late August, then latched on with the Giants in September.

The oft-cited narrative for Penny’s ’09 campaign is this: he got eaten alive in the A.L., scurried back to the N.L. and then pitched well with San Francisco. However, his numbers suggest that he was neither the scrub of his Red Sox days nor the resurgent ace of his Giants tenure:

Penny’s 2009 peripherals, by team

Red Sox: 6.08 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB, .333 BABIP, 64.4 LOB%, 4.49 FIP
Giants: 4.32 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 2.22 K/BB, .211 BABIP, 81.8 LOB%, 4.35 FIP

Penny’s BABIP was 122 points higher with Boston. His rate of stranding runners on base was extremely low with the Red Sox, before going through the roof with San Francisco.

Overall, the 31 year-old posted a 4.46 FIP in 173.1 IP. That FIP was about four-tenths of a run below his actual 4.88 ERA. He whiffed 5.66 batters per nine innings, with 2.65 BB/9.

While Penny tosses a curveball, a splitter and the occasional slider, his success has always been predicated on his fastball. The 6-4, 240 pound Penny chucked his heater 71.1% of the time in 2009, one of the five highest rates among starters.

In ’08, he lost zip on his fastball as he dealt with persistent shoulder problems (92.4 MPH, tied for his lowest mark since 2002). But in ’09, Penny picked up that missing velocity (94 MPH). Take a look at his velocity chart. Penny was all over the map in 2008, but he steadily gained speed in 2009:

After posting a gruesome run value of -1.44 per 100 pitches in 2008, Penny’s fastball rebounded for a +0.22 runs/100 value this past season.

Penny and his rediscovered heater should enjoy New Busch Stadium, which is awfully kind to pitchers. Using ESPN’s park factor data, here are the three-year park factors for Busch III:

New Busch Stadium Park Factors, 2007-2009

Runs: 0.93
HR: 0.79
H: 0.99
2B: 0.92
3B: 0.91

(A park factor of 1.00 means that the park is neutral, favoring neither hitters nor pitchers. A park factor below one indicates a pitcher’s park, while a park factor over one means that the stadium favors hitters.)

Since 2007, Busch has suppressed run scoring by seven percent and homers by 21 percent, as compared to a neutral ballpark. The venue isn’t conducive to extra-base mayhem, either. Penny should come to love his new home digs.

While there’s certainly risk in signing a pitcher who essentially lost his whole 2008 season to a shoulder injury, Penny looks like a nice value for the Cardinals. CHONE projects Penny to post a 4.13 ERA in 159 innings, which would be worth 2.1 WAR. If a win costs roughly $4.4M on the free agent market, then the Cards would receive $9.2M in value from the club’s Penny pact.

Penny’s not a top-shelf arm. But as a good starter heading to a pitcher’s park in the N.L., his fantasy value just received a nice boost. It would be wise to pick up a Penny on draft day.

When a team loses 103 ball games, suffice it to say that club’s plans went up in flames that would make the Hindenburg pale in comparison.

In 2009, the Washington Nationals had a middle-of-the-pack offense (7th in the NL in wOBA) dragged down by wretched starting pitching (14th in FIP) and bullpen work (dead last in FIP).

When Washington led a game in the late innings, the ‘pen often made Jim Riggleman squirm. The Nats reliever with the highest Leverage Index (a measure of the importance of a pitcher’s appearance, based on the inning, score and base-out state) was Mike MacDougal.

In a fine example of why the save just doesn’t do a good job of measuring reliever performance, Mac was 20 for 21 in save ops during a season in which he walked more batters than he struck out (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9). Somewhere, Mike Williams is smiling.

Today, the Nationals picked up RHP Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL. For most teams, Bruney would try to settle into a mop-up role. But given the destitute state of Washington’s bullpen, Bruney could work his way into the later innings.

Injuries have taken a serious bite out of the former Diamondback and Yankee’s career. Bruney missed considerable time in 2008 with a Lis Franc sprain in his right foot, and his 2009 season was shortened by elbow problems.

Bruney misses bats (8.86 K/9 career), but his lack of control would make Daniel Cabrera blush. The 6-3 righty has issued 6.22 walks per nine innings in the big leagues.

28 in February, Bruney slings mid-90’s heat (94.6 MPH in 2009) while mixing in an upper-80’s slider. As you might expect from that gargantuan walk rate, he struggles to get ahead of hitters. Bruney’s career first-pitch strike percentage is 55.5%, well below the 58-59% MLB average. Batters have responded to the wildness by keeping the bat on the shoulder: opponents have chased Bruney’s stuff out of the strike zone just 20.2% of the time (25% MLB average).

The Washington Post quoted Riggleman as saying, “it’s undetermined who would be our closer.” The best reliever in Washington’s ‘pen is likely Tyler Clippard (9.99 K/9 in 2009), but the Nationals like to use the former starter in a multi-inning role.

Until Drew Storen ascends to the majors, MacDougal and Bruney could battle it out to see who can throw fewer pitches into the press box. Bruney certainly isn’t any fantasy owner’s ideal option, but he could pick up some saves in 2010.

We checked in on left field this week, and now it’s time to take a look at some of the guys that didn’t make the mixed-league cut but will provide value in deeper leagues. Left field continues to provide value down here on this section of the list.

It was hard to fit Travis Snider in the top fifteen fantasy left fielders for 2010, but he has upside to reach far into the top ten. We already talked about how he needs to cut down the strikeouts (32.2% career), but he may not have that much improvement left in that category, considering his minor league numbers (28.7% career). The power looks real though – his ISO is already good (.175) and has the chance to get better, as he had better ISOs in the minors. An okay batting average and some home runs are on the way – Toronto currently has Jose Bautista and his lifetime .238 batting average penciled in for an outfield spot.

Carlos Guillen got some love in the comments thread, but is in the midst of a three-year decline in most of his categories and has averaged only 400 at-bats over the last two years. Now he’s the full-time left fielder according to his manager, so at least his role is defined. There was some good news last year when he came back – his ISO rebounded from a terrible 2008. If his BABIP hadn’t been terrible (.267), then he might have looked okay. Given 500 plate appearances, he could put together another year with a .800+ OPS and 20 or so home runs. Don’t pay full price, though, because of his brittleness.

Seth Smith is the younger, better talent than Guillen, but he has no defined role until Brad Hawpe leaves town. Right now, I’d rather pick Chase Headley or Chris Coghlan over Smith despite their relative lack of power next to the Rockies’ left field youngster. Headley and Coghlan have a starting role on their teams, no matter what their faults are.

Headley and Coghlan both have different faults, but are promising. Headley’s name isn’t as prominent right now, so he’ll probably return a better value by providing more power at a cheaper price. The knock on him used to be the strikeouts (27% career), but he made good strides last year in that department (24.5%). The former third baseman is a little puzzling – he has a high career BABIP (.340) that was formerly propped up by his line drive rates (24.5% in 2008) and slipped to .326 this year with a poor line drive rate (16.5%). His xBABIP last year was .317 last year and .326 for his career, so he has been slightly lucky, but not extremely so. The fact remains that his career away split (.301/.368/.437 in 492 ABs) shows his upside, which is worth chasing.

Coghlan is coming off a great debut, and is worth a mid-round pick should Dan Uggla move on and vacate second base in Florida. He’s certainly a good hitter – his walk rate (9.5%) and strikeout rate (15.3%) were both great and also in line with his minor league work. The speed is there (72 stolen bases and 18 caught stealings in the minor leagues) so despite his poor rate last year (62% success rate), he should be good for the 20 stolen bases James predicts, if not more as he learns the nuances of major league pitchers. Just don’t go expecting more power, his minor league .153 ISO probably presents his upside (.139 last year). If his Rookie of the Year hardware doesn’t zoom him up in drafts (past where a .300-hitting 10/25 player should go), he’s obviously a good player wherever he plays.

For three years now, Brandon Wood has whacked AAA pitching and waited for an opening at the major league level. With Chone Figgins set to join the Mariners , it appears that Wood finally has a clean shot at winning a job with the Angels.

L.A.’s first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Wood posted promising numbers as a teenager in Rookie Ball and in the Low-A Midwest League. But the 6-3 righty batter really burst onto the prospect scene in 2005, scorching the High-A California League.

The Cal League is known for offensive outbursts, but Wood’s .321/.383/.672 line at Rancho Cucamonga was still eye-popping. He clubbed 43 home runs and posted a .351 ISO, while playing shortstop, no less.

Wood walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, while punching out at a moderate 21.5% clip. Ranking Wood the best prospect in L.A.’s system, Baseball America predicted he would “develop into a perennial all-star infielder at either shortstop or third base.”

Promoted to the AA Texas League in 2006, Wood continued to crush while sticking at shortstop. He authored a .276/.355/.552 triple-slash in 552 PA. Wood’s whiff rate spiked (32.9 K%), though his secondary skills remained elite. He posted a 10.7 BB%, with a .276 ISO.

Since then, Wood has pulverized the Pacific Coast League:

Wood’s AAA numbers, 2007-2009

2007: .272/.338/.497, .224 ISO, 9.3 BB%, 27.5 K%
2008: .296/.375/.595, .299 ISO, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%
2009: .293/.353/.557, .264 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 20.7 K%

Wood has oscillated between shortstop and third base in AAA, splitting his time between the positions almost evenly in 2009.

In 1,383 career PA with Salt Lake, Wood owns a .287/.354/.547 line. Salt Lake is another excellent hitting environment. While I can’t find park factors for the 2009 season, this Baseball Think Factory thread shows that Spring Mobile Ballpark (home of the Bees) increased run scoring by six percent and home runs by seven percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008.

Here are Wood’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from ’07 to ’09, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007: .210/.263/.370
2008: .235/.299/.446
2009: .235/.283/.432

Penalizing Wood for hefty punch out rates and the high-octane hitting environment of Salt Lake, those MLE’s don’t paint an especially pretty picture.

From 2007 to 2009, Wood’s playing time with the Angels could best be described as scattered. In 236 trips to the plate, he has batted just .192/.222/.313. He has walked in 3% of his PA, while striking out 33 percent. Wood’s outside-swing percentage is near 37 percent (25% MLB average), with a 68.5% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

Those numbers are ugly. But let’s not bury the guy for a couple hundred bad PA’s split over a three-year period. Now that third base appears to be his for the taking, what can Wood provide fantasy owners in 2010?

Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .242/.304/.434 line next season, which equates to a WOBA of about .319. The fans are a bit more optimistic, envisioning a .257/.315/.450 performance (.331 wOBA). Per Baseball Prospectus, Wood’s 2009 line in AAA translates to a .249/.308/.479 MLB triple-slash (.336 wOBA). For comparison, the average MLB third baseman hit .265/.335/.421 in 2009 (.332 wOBA).

Turning 25 in March, Wood doesn’t as a major league star any more. His low contact rate and average plate discipline make it difficult to envision an OBP above the big league average (.333 in 2009).

But don’t write him off as a bust, either. Wood possesses ample pop, and he’s not a total hacker at the plate. Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for Wood (which attempts to forecast a player’s top performance level in the majors) is .256/.319/.513 (.354 wOBA).

Wood’s star no longer shines brilliantly. However, he’s still capable of being a solid starter in the majors. That may be disappointing to those who hoped for a franchise player, but Wood is worth targeting in A.L.-only and keeper leagues.

On the surface, Chicago White Sox righty Gavin Floyd appeared to take a step back in 2009. After all, his ERA rose from 3.84 in 2008 to 4.06 this past year, with his win total dipping from 17 to 11 in the process.

Recently, ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft came out with a preliminary top 200 list for the 2010 season. Floyd checked in at number 200. He ranked below starters such as Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana.

Santana (elbow, triceps) and Matsuzaka (shoulder) lost big chunks of the ’09 season with injury problems. Lowe, meanwhile, pulled off an undesirable trifecta by missing fewer bats, walking more hitters and getting fewer ground balls than usual.

But Floyd? He’s coming off of his best season in the majors, win total and higher ERA aside.

This time last year, I examined Floyd’s 2008 season and came to a rather harsh conclusion:

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.

Today, I can say that I was wrong about Floyd. And now, I fear that other analysts may be making a similar mistake in underestimating the former Phillies prospect.

In 2008, Floyd struck out 6.32 batters per nine innings. In ’09, his K rate climbed to 7.6 per nine frames. The increase appears to be supported by a drop in contact rate. Opposing batters made contact when swinging at Floyd’s pitches 81.7% of the time in ’08, but just 77.8% in ’09 (80-81% MLB average).

Also, his rate of swinging strikes spiked from 8.4% in ’08 to 9.9% this past year (7.8% average for starting pitchers). Floyd ranked 17th among starters in contact rate and 21st in swinging strike rate.

The soon-to-be 27 year-old also lowered his walk rate a bit, from 3.05 BB/9 in 2008 to 2.75 BB/9 in 2009. Floyd kept the ball on the ground more than in years past, with a 44.3 GB% (41.2% in ’08).

That’s not a massive increase, but it makes a difference. His home run/fly ball rate didn’t change all that much between 2008 (11.8%) and 2009 (11.2%), but his HR/9 figure fell from 1.31 to 0.98. Considering U.S. Cellular Field’s homer-happy tendencies (1.26 HR park factor from 2007-2009), getting a few more grounders can’t hurt.

For most of his major league career, Floyd struggled to retire lefty batters. In 2009, that wasn’t the case. Baseball-Reference keeps track of a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is league average. A score below 100 for a pitcher means that he was better than the league average, while a score above 100 means he did worse than average. Here are Floyd’s sOPS+ figures vs. lefties since 2006:

2006: 155
2007: 132
2008: 111
2009: 74

While one year of platoon data shouldn’t be taken as definitive proof that Floyd has conquered southpaw batters, there’s other evidence to suggest the improvement is legitimate.

Floyd has shifted his pitch selection in recent years, progressively tossing fewer low-90’s fastballs in favor of more mid-80’s sliders and cutters:

Floyd’s fastball, slider and cutter percentage, by year:

2007: 62.1 fastball (FA) percentage, 7.6 slider (SL) percentage, 6.7 cutter (FC) percentage
2008: 54.9 FA%, 9.2 SL%, 9.4 FC%
2009: 41.5 FA%, 16.3 SL%, 12.7 FC%

Floyd’s fastball has been scorched for a career run value of -0.92 per 100 pitches, making his decision to throw fewer heaters a wise one. His slider and cutter are lumped together on his Pitch Type Values section. Floyd’s Pitch F/X graphs (like this one from a 9/16 start vs. Seattle) show that they’re two distinct pitches, though:

The run value of his slider and cutter combined is +0.58 during the course of his big league career.

With more whiffs, fewer walks and the patented “Cooper Cutter” in his arsenal, Floyd was one of the better starters in the A.L. in 2009. Floyd’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA dropped from 4.61 in ’08 to 3.82 this past season. That placed 8th among A.L. starters.

Gavin Floyd might not be an elite starter, but he’s pretty darned good. Don’t let the win total fool you: Floyd was better than ever in 2009.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, free agent catcher Gregg Zaun signed a one-year, $1.9M pact with the Milwaukee Brewers. The deal includes a $2.25M option for the 2011 season ($250K buyout). Since the Rays offered Zaun (a type B free agent) arbitration, they’ll pick up a supplemental first-rounder.

The switch-hitting Zaun has taken ball four and popped an occasional base hit for 15 years now. The man once dubbed “The Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” will turn 39 years old in April, but he’s coming off of a productive 2009 campaign split between the Orioles and the Rays.

In 296 PA, Zaun posted a .334 wOBA. He continued to take his walks (10.6 BB%, 16.9 Outside-Swing%) and managed a .156 ISO. That might not quicken your pulse, but the average MLB catcher authored a .310 wOBA in 2009, with a .141 ISO.

Much like he did when he joined the O’s last year, Zaun will probably provide a helping hand as a rookie catcher breaks into the big leagues. The Brewers have two catching prospects at the upper levels of the farm system: Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome.

A 3rd round pick in the ’07 draft, Lucroy compiled a .267/.380/.418 line at AA Huntsville last season. The 23 year-old likely won’t be a huge power threat at the highest level. But he possesses exceptional strike-zone discipline, having taken a free pass 15.7% of the time at Huntsville in 2009 (his career minor league walk rate is 11.6 percent).

Salome, also 23, spent the ’09 campaign at AAA Nashville. His future is murky if he can’t remain behind the dish, however. Built like Barney Rubble at 5-7 and 200 pounds, Salome is considered a fringy defensive catcher. Baseball America said he “often gets his footwork messed up behind the plate.” If he can’t cut it at catcher, where does he play?

Salome has bashed to the tune of a .316/.364/.483 line in the minors, including a .286/.334/.413 performance at Nashville last year. Salome’s career BABIP on the farm is .354: not exactly what one would expect from a catcher about as tall as Yogi Berra.

Here’s how CHONE projects the Brew Crew’s catching troika in 2010:

Zaun: .228/.323/.353
Lucroy: .247/.335/.379
Salome: .270/.321/.408

CHONE sees Zaun’s numbers regressing to a wOBA around .303. Bill James gives us a .316 projection, and the fans (194 people have weighed in on Zaun already? Whoa) call for a .318 wOBA.

Zaun looks like an intelligent, low-cost addition for Milwaukee, if not a terribly exciting fantasy option. Lucroy and Salome both have enough offensive skills to be of interest down the road, though Salome will have to prove he has the defensive chops to remain at the position.

As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, and third basemen.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

Ryan Braun is in a league of his own. With his massive power, speed and plus batting averages, he’s the young Alex Rodriguez of the outfield.

That said, the second tier offers some nice talent and I’m sure some will feel that the first tier could be expanded. Carl Crawford matched his best two seasons with another .300/15/60 effort, and at 28 there’s no real reason to predict a downfall next year. If you’d like your speedster to come with a few home runs, he’s one of probably two players in the league capable of putting up 15 home runs alongside 55+ stolen bases. Matt Holliday is sort of a Braun-lite, but if the stars aligned, his power could surge and make them practically indistinguishable for fantasy purposes.

That’s where the arguments should end. Jason Bay is on the way down along with his batting average, and even with his nice power and a sprinkling of stolen bases, he’s no first-tier player. Manny Ramirez just won’t play enough games next year, shold be on the way down just because of his age (37), and now has the PED question mark. Adam Lind may someday be in the conversation for the first tier, but the power currently has too many question marks (+.100 ISO from 2008-2009).

The third tier is the value tier. The best tiers are the ones where up-and-coming youngsters share space with declining veterans because one or the other is sure to be over- or under-valued in a given league. Does your tier value veterans too highly? Let them have Carlos Lee and his waning power and speed. Someone sure that Alfonso Soriano will rediscover his mojo? Pick the surging Nolan Reimold for his power and enjoy his surprising speed many rounds later. Even Johnny Damon’s metronome-like 20/20-ish production deserves a look here. Given all of these options, it does look like Raul Ibanez won’t be on many of my teams next year. Not when I can possibly get more power from Carlos Quentin later on.

The last tier reminds us why we don’t pick outfielders too early. The final grouping boasts a player that could steal 40+ bases with a starting job in Julio Borbon, and a trio of sluggers that are likely to hit between 25-30 home runs in Matt LaPorta, Juan Rivera and Josh Willingham. Even the just-off candidates are interesting. If Seth Smith gets a starting job, he rockets up the list with .300/25/10 potential. Travis Snider is battling some strikeout issues at the major league level and doesn’t have a guaranteed job coming out of spring training, but deserves a mention because of his minor league numbers (1.094 OPS in AAA last year) and age (21).

One thing is clear when looking at the left fielders in 2010: Unless you’re getting Braun (or maybe Crawford), it’s wise to wait.